In an FT.com editorial, "Iāve been an optimist on China. But Iām starting to worry," Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia, opines that he is starting to worry about China, and its bank-led financing stimulus, and wonders if China has not learned from this era's mistakes:
On the surface, China appears to be leading the world from recession to recovery. After coming to a virtual standstill in late 2008, at least as measured quarter-to-quarter, economic growth accelerated sharply in spring 2009.
A back-of-the envelope calculation suggests China may have accounted for as much as 2 percentage points of annualised growth in inflation-adjusted world output in the second quarter of 2009. With contractions moderating elsewhere, China's rebound may have been enough in and of itself to allow global gross domestic product to eke out a small positive gain for the first time since last summer.
That's the good news. The bad news is that China's recent growth spurt comes at a steep price. Fearful that its recent economic short- fall would deepen, Chinese policymakers have opted for quantity over quality in setting macro-strategy, the centrepiece of which is an enormous surge in infrastructure spending funded by a burst of bank lending.
Source: Stephen Roach (Financial Times): Iāve been an optimist on China. But Iām starting to worry, July 29, 2009.
