The Yield Curve is Flattening?

Long-term government bond yields are dropping everywhere. Is anybody going this way?

Here is what some of the folks in the bond market are saying:

Eric Lascelles, Chief Economic and Rates Strategist,  TD Securities Inc.: "It is remarkable, the speed at which this is happening," said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist for TD Securities Inc.

Stewart Hall, currency and fixed-income strategist with HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc.: "I think one of the overarching themes today is global recession." On a positive note, "You have the Fed and other government agencies operating in an imaginative and innovative fashion to throw as much as necessary [at the problem] to get the economy back in track."

Mark Chandler, fixed-income strategist with RBC Dominion Securities Inc.: “Long-term rates are playing catch-up in terms of the decline in yields we have seen in short-term bonds.  There is limited downside in short-term yields."The relatively greater drop in yields on long-term bonds compared with short-term bonds is a theme that could continue into the first half of 2009, Mr. Chandler said. In the parlance of bond traders, this is known as a yield curve flattener, as the difference in yield between short-term and long-term bonds narrows.

The decision by the Fed last week to buy $500-billion (U.S.) of agency guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, along with $100-billion of other agency (government-sponsored enterprises) debt, is a force acting to push yields down.

On an increasing basis, the Fed has been taking steps to manage through the U.S. housing crisis. The plan injects liquidity into the system, and frees up cash available for mortgage lending, as well as serving to lower U.S. mortgage rates. The rate of 30-year mortgages has fallen to 6 per cent last week from 6.5 per cent.

Less than two weeks ago, Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed could also decide to buy longer-term U.S. Treasuries, which would reduce bond supplies, resulting in higher prices and a decline in yields.

From Bloomberg:

The 10-year note’s yield fell as much as 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, to 3.37 percent. It traded at 3.40 percent at 3:04 p.m. in Toronto. The price of the 4.25 percent security maturing in June 2018 advanced 84 cents to C$106.86.

The yield on the two-year government bond dropped six basis points to 1.77 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 rose 12 cents to C$101.95.

The 10-year bond yielded 163 basis points more than the two- year security, down from 168 basis points yesterday. The so- called yield curve reached 184 basis points on Nov. 6, the steepest since May 2004.

Our thoughts are that Government of Canada bond yields which are still higher than those of comparable US treasuries will also come down over the next year, as investors seek the refuge of government securities (and Canada's higher yields), on the Canadian as well as global recession trend. The current blows to the Canadian economy come as the Auto industry copes with the difficulties of the Big Three automakers, and in the commodities sector, with the decline in commodities prices that has led producers to consider shutting in mining and exploration projects, and laying off employees. On this basis, it seems far more likely that Canada's yield curve could continue to flatten along with the US treasury yield curve, leading to higher bond prices and lower yields.

Levente Mady, a fixed-income strategist at MF Global Canada Co.: “Inflation doesn’t matter any more. It’s deflationary concern that’s underpinning the bid in the long end of the market. Yields are literally gravitating towards zero. It’s almost like it doesn’t matter if the news is good, bad or indifferent.”

Sources: Globe and Mail, Bloomberg