A Healthier Economic Environment
by Douglas Peebles, Economics, Fixed Income, AllianceBernstein
I think the most important thing thatâs going on in the financial markets today is we are having a cyclical rebound in the economy.
I donât think itâs too much to say that thatâs happening globally, and itâs happening globally both from a real sense and from an inflation sense, so nominal growth around the world, we ourselves at AB are increasing our forecasts for both growth and inflation as we move through time.
Thatâs new to us since the financial crisis. However, itâs not new in terms of the way the world works. The notion thatâs new recently for the marketplace is, wow, I guess we donât have to just rely on the central banks to add more liquidity into the system, which drives up asset prices. Thatâs no longer the main game in town.
So we already see by the Federal Reserve that theyâre in a rate-tightening mode. Eventually theyâll get to the point where theyâre gonna debate about how they shrink the balance sheet. We heard from the ECB that oh, by the way, we donât necessarily think itâs an emergency time anymore. Itâs still, you know, the patientâs not out of the hospital yet, but itâs not ER-type anymore.
That all goes hand in hand with the notion that the economy is recovering, and I think that that is perhaps the most important thing other than this notion of whatâs happening in politics.
Thatâs not to say that we didnât get a little bit of extra gas from what the market expected to come out of a new Trump administration, and Iâve said since he was elected that there are three things that the market loves.
The market loves deregulation. The market likes tax reform and the market likes some form of infrastructure or extra fiscal spending.
There are two other things that the market doesnât like and the market shouldnât like. One is an immigration policy that shuts the borders in the United States and the other one is some sort of a trade barrier that slows down global trade.
At the moment, because weâre in a cyclical upswing, the market is focusing on the first three. Eventually I think that weâll get some economic prints that donât look quite so well and the market will focus on the other two.
So volatility isnât gone from the marketplace by any stretch of the imagination, but I think the world that we had gotten so used to living in, which is as we characterize it as a risk-on, risk-off world, I think that that is most likely behind us, and I think thatâs healthier for everybody, our clients and, and our portfolio managers as well.
The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.
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