Emerging Markets Radar (October 14, 2013)

Emerging Markets Radar (October 14, 2013)




Emerging Markets Radar (October 14, 2013)

Strengths

  • Indian automakers and consumer companies rose this week following the government’s announcement that state-run banks will increase lending to selected industries. Similarly, the central bank lowered one of its target rates, easing liquidity curbs imposed in July after the rupee rebounded from a record low. Towards the end of the week, data showed that the nation’s trade gap narrowed to the lowest level in 30 months, helping the rupee advance. The Asian nation’s currency has appreciated more than 10 percent from its September low.

Indian Rupee Bounces Back Versus Dollar
click to enlarge

  • Polish banks rose to the highest level in almost six years after Moody’s Investors Service raised the outlook for the local banking industry to stable from negative. According to Moody’s, the upgrade comes on the expectation that the recovery in economic growth will bring about a recovery in interest income, Polish banks’ main revenue source, and consequent stabilization in bank profitability.
  • The number of mainland Chinese visitors to Macau grew 11 percent during the six-day Golden Week holiday, beginning in early October. Gross gaming revenue was up a record 35 percent.
  • Over the Golden Week holiday, Chinese travel to Hong Kong was up 17 percent year-over-year, while up 51 percent to North America. Chinese visitors to Thailand, South Korea and Japan were also up on a year-over-year basis.
  • New home sales rose 72 percent during the first week of October, the Golden Week, throughout the major cities in China.
  • China’s Securities Regulatory Commission is drafting an implementation plan for A-shares companies to issue preferred stocks, the Shanghai Securities News reported.
  • Indonesia’s foreign reserve rose to $95.7 billion in September from $93 billion in August. The Indonesian stock market was up 6 percent during the week in U.S. dollars, half of which was from rupiah currency appreciation. Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, left the policy rate unchanged at 7.25 percent as expected after improving economic statistics was released last week. China said it will continue to support ASEAN financial stability in case of turmoil as it did in the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
  • The Philippines’ manufacturing index rose 18.3 percent in August for a fifth straight month of upbeat gains, benefiting from growing business process outsourcing to that country. Exports soared to 20.2 percent in August, while car sales were up 15 percent in September, showing a robust economy.
  • The Bank of Korea, the central bank, left the policy rate unchanged at 2.5 percent this week and kept its view that the global economy is continuing to recover, along with slight signs of recovery within China.

Weaknesses

  • Turkey’s industrial output dropped surprisingly in August for the first time this year. A Bloomberg analyst survey deemed output was expected to rise 4.1 percent, but the actual reading unexpectedly fell 4 percent from the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. However, September economic data showed that the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54 in September, up from 50.9 in August. Exports also rose 11.1 percent from a year ago, driven by the acceleration in external demand, particularly in the euro area, suggesting a strong rebound in activity last month.

About the author

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., and a Toronto, Canada native, which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

The company’s funds have earned more than two dozen Lipper Fund Awards and certificates since 2000. The Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) was Lipper’s top-performing global natural resources fund in 2010. In 2009, the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) was Lipper’s top-performing gold fund, the second time in four years for that achievement. In addition, both funds received 2007 and 2008 Lipper Fund Awards as the best overall funds in their respective categories.

Mr. Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of “The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing.”

He is also an advisor to the International Crisis Group, which works to resolve global conflict, and the William J. Clinton Foundation on sustainable development in nations with resource-based economies.

Mr. Holmes is a much-sought-after conference speaker and a regular commentator on financial television. He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron’s, The Financial Times and other publications.

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