Posted in: Episodes

Fidelity's Ilan Kolet – 11 Questions for 2024

Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio manager in Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation Team, joins us to discuss the most important questions he and his team mates, David Wolf and David Tulk have been fielding at the start of 2024. We delve into the unexpected shifts in monetary policy led by the Federal Reserve and mull over the repercussions of potential rate cuts on inflation volatility, weaving through the intricacies of the Fed’s data-driven stance and ‘pivot’ toward a less restrictive monetary environment.

In the context of historical reflections and economic projections, Kolet elaborates on the team’s optimism regarding the US market, supported by a belief in a productivity boom that dallies with the possibility of economic prosperity, low inflation, and equity strength. We get into Canadian fiscal policy, where Kolet voices concerns about Canada’s macroeconomy potentially trailing in equities and fixed income, and how the team is allocating to Canada. Kolet sheds light on the team’s investment strategy, from high-conviction underweights and overweights to the complexities and nuances of handling asset allocation.

Throughout the episode, it’s clear that the core of the discussion isn’t merely the transactional aspects of investment but relates to the broader challenges advisors face when reconciling market complexities with client needs. The episode provides Fidelity’s highest conviction global asset allocation guidance through the labyrinth of 2024’s financial mixed and uncertain landscape.

Posted in: Episodes

John De Goey – Investing ahead of unknown market risks

John De Goey, Portfolio Manager and Investment Advisor at Designed Wealth Management joins us to discuss and explore the current investment landscape and the choices available to investors. He highlights the importance of managing risk and staying on the short end of the yield curve, for time being where fixed income is concerned. We also delve into the topics of optimism and pessimism, with a focus on the potential challenges and uncertainties in the market. We talk about the shifts in real estate markets, particularly the shift happening that’s favouring the US Sun Belt, and the potential impact of climate change on investments. De Goey urges investors to be prepared and take proactive measures to balance risk in their portfolios. He also cautions against unrealistic expectations for future returns. Is your portfolio equipped to handle unknown variables and tail risks?

Our chat wraps up with a nudge to uphold a diverse and balanced portfolio, mindful of the effects of surging interest rates. Remember, Balanced Asset Allocation and Balanced Funds are not the same – risk management is key. Unlike a traditional 60/40 ‘balanced fund’, a balanced asset allocation approach ensures apt risk distribution.

We explore the perils of unchecked optimism in the finance sector and how to construct a resilient, well-equipped portfolio. We ponder the withdrawal effects of quantitative easing and the necessity to confront market realities. We also investigate the financial industry’s positivity bias and the knock-on effects of negativity.

De Goey’s “dumbest thing he’s heard” takes a jab at data manipulation to bolster a narrative. We delve into the need to anticipate potential pitfalls and the importance of diversification as a safety net. Our dialogue concludes with a conversation about managing expectations, loss aversion, and the task of keeping clients invested for the long haul. Certainly, plenty to contemplate.

Takeaways

  • Stay on the short end of the yield curve for now, and manage risk in the current market.
  • Be cautious of excessive optimism and be prepared for potential challenges and uncertainties.
  • Consider investments in real estate, traditional inflation hedges, and diversified portfolios.
  • Recognize the changing investment landscape and adjust expectations for future returns. Blind optimism in the financial industry can be dangerous, as it can lead to a lack of preparedness for potential risks.
  • Quantitative easing has created withdrawal symptoms in the market, and it is important to face the reality of the current situation.
  • The financial services industry has a commercial imperative to be optimistic, but it is crucial to consider both the positive and negative aspects of investing.
  • Cherry-picking data to support a narrative is not a reliable approach, and it is important to consider the full picture.
  • Proper diversification is like insurance for a portfolio, and it is essential to mitigate potential harm.
  • Expectations management, loss aversion, and maintaining perspective are key in keeping clients invested for the long term.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:00] Introduction

[01:01] Investment Choices in the Current Market

[03:31] Optimism and Pessimism

[06:07] Shifts in Real Estate Markets

[06:56] The Sun Belt and Financial Centers

[08:20] Concerns and Pessimism

[10:32] Preparing for Uncertain Times

[16:06] Lowering Expectations for the Future

[21:12] Balancing Climate Obligations and Economic Growth

[26:04] Preparing for a Lower Standard of Living

[31:05] The Danger of Optimism Bias

[35:47] The Importance of Being Prepared

[41:49] Diversification and Balance in Portfolios

[46:16] The Impact of Rising Rates

[48:40] The Danger of Blind Optimism

[49:14] The Withdrawal Symptoms of Quantitative Easing

[50:20] The Commercial Imperative of Optimism in the Financial Services Industry

[51:18] The Cascading Effect of Pessimism in the Market

[52:16] The Dumbest Thing Heard: Cherry-Picking Data to Support a Narrative

[55:43] Listening for Quips and Side Comments in Financial Media

[58:32] The Afterglow of Reaction to Bad Economic News

[01:00:36] The Importance of Considering What Could Go Wrong

[01:02:31] Optimism with Insurance: Proper Diversification

[01:05:55] Expectations Management and Loss Aversion

[01:07:29] The Challenge of Minimizing Losses and Maintaining Perspective

[01:09:29] The Difficulty of Keeping Clients Invested for the Long Term

[01:11:36] The Struggle of Getting Clients to Embrace Diversification

[01:14:33] Differentiating Between Great Companies and Great Stocks

[01:15:16] The Historical Perspective of Overvalued Markets

[01:17:41] The Redistribution of Wealth During Flat Markets

[01:20:55] The Need for Realism and Mitigating Potential Harm

Posted in: Episodes

Fidelity's Ilan Kolet: 2024 Macro and Investment Outlook

Join us for this enlightening conversation with Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation Team, at Fidelity Investments, as we delve into the economic outlook for 2024. Kolet provides invaluable insight into the Canadian and US economies, the housing market, investment strategies, and inflation protection. We explore the impact of interest rates, consumer spending, and central bank policies on investments. Kolet’s expertise sheds light on asset allocation, portfolio diversification, and the potential implications of elevated inflation rates, making this episode an absolute must-listen.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:00] Introduction – career – Bank of Canada, under Dodge and Carney, to Bloomberg, then Fidelity in Boston.

[05:24] Thoughts on Market optimism.

[12:10] Potential US economic growth boosted by technology.

[17:36] Labor market shows resilience and interest concerns.

[23:19] Reduced consumer spending leads to economic impact.

[29:47] Asset allocation process involves feedback from managers.

[33:03] Elevated rates causing financial stress in Canada.

[38:11] Diversifying and explaining investments to numerous clients.

[43:33] Services drive inflation, labor market drives expenses.

[48:45] US government faces challenges in refunding debt.

[57:25] Researchers on Wellington acknowledge economic sensitivities, rates outlook.

[01:02:28] Leverage negative sentiment, be cautious in exuberance.

[01:06:15] Questioning fixed income view, cash overweight strategic.

[01:10:13] Investors have many short and long-term options.

[01:17:30] Working with talented teams on global research.

Where to find Ilan Kolet, Fidelity Investments:

Fidelity Investments Canada – Asset Allocation Quarterly

Bio

Ilan Kolet on Linkedin

Global Asset Allocation Team – Fidelity Investments

Posted in: Episodes

Dino Bourdos: Is the yield on your covered call fund too good?

In this insightful discussion, Dino Bourdos, Portfolio Manager & Head of Investment Solutions at Guardian Capital LP delves into the intricacies of investment strategies, particularly focusing on the use of derivatives, covered call strategies, and the impact of market dynamics on investment decisions. With his extensive experience in the field, Bourdos offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities in the current economic landscape, making this a must-watch for investors and financial professionals alike.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:02:19] – Impact of 2008 Financial Crisis on Individual Investors: Discussion on how the 2008 crisis led to a need for risk management strategies for individual investors, leading to the development of innovative options strategies.

[00:03:39] – Guardian Capital’s Approach to Asset Management: Insights into Guardian Capital’s strategies, including the use of machine learning and AI in stock selection and the launch of innovative solutions like the Tontine.

[00:09:47] – Creating Awareness in Investment Strategies: Emphasis on the importance of understanding the mechanics of investment strategies and setting realistic expectations to avoid misconceptions.

[00:10:46] – Role of Advisors in Setting Expectations: The significance of advisors setting correct expectations and working towards delivering on them, particularly in relation to mutual funds and systematic withdrawal plans.

[00:21:02] – Fundamentals Over Yield in Investment Choices: The discussion focuses on the importance of the underlying asset in investments, rather than just the yield, and the necessity of a portfolio’s ability to grow and sustain payments.

[00:24:31] – Cover Call Strategies for Long-Term Growth: How cover call strategies can be integrated into long-term investment plans, providing tax-efficient income while maintaining portfolio value.

[00:29:04] – Personal Investment Strategy Using Home Equity: A personal anecdote about using home equity to invest in a cover call strategy, highlighting a creative approach to wealth creation.

[00:32:35] – Opportunities in Single Stock Options: Discussion on the transition from index options to single stock options and the different opportunities they present in the market.

[00:36:02] – Navigating Market Volatility with Covered Call Strategies: Insights into the use of covered call strategies during market downturns and the importance of being pragmatic and prudent in investment decisions.

[00:37:16] – Adapting Investment Strategies Amidst Global Transitions: Commentary on adapting investment strategies in response to global shifts such as from globalism to protectionism and low to high interest rates.

Where to find Dino Bourdos

Dino Bourdos on Linkedin

Guardian Capital LP

Research: Is the yield on your Covered Call Fund too high?

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Posted in: Episodes

Deep Dive into Global Economic and Market Outlook, and AI's Role with Joaquin Kritz Lara

Join us in conversation with Joaquin Kritz Lara, Chief Economist at Numera Analytics, as we explore the intricate world of global economics and financial markets. Hosted by Pierre Daillie and Richard Laterman, the discussion delves into the nuances of macroeconometrics, the dynamics of inflation, and the complexities of investment strategies in today’s volatile market.

Joaquin brings his extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and model building, offering unique insights into the causal relationships between economic variables and their impact on financial markets. The conversation also touches on the rigidity of Europe’s job markets, the influence of geopolitical events, and the critical role of domain knowledge in leveraging AI tools like ChatGPT for economic analysis.

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Timestamped Highlights

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[00:01:16] Introduction of Joaquin Kritz Lara, emphasizing his role and expertise in the financial sector.

[00:07:23] Discussion on macroeconomic dynamics and Fed policy impacts on financial markets, identifying a late-cycle stage in G10 countries.

[00:22:59] Analysis of the lag between real interest rate changes and consumption growth in developed markets, indicating a late-cycle economic stage.

[00:25:30] Examination of the slow-moving banking crisis and its effects on the international demand for U.S. Treasuries and term premiums.

[00:34:00] Conversation about the final stage of an economic expansion phase and the determination of optimal asset allocation weights for different investors.

[00:50:10] Discussion on complementing stock-bond portfolios in light of paradigm shifts, focusing on asset class correlations and regime shifts.

[01:29:49] Discussion on the limitations of AI tools like ChatGPT in financial analysis, highlighting the importance of domain knowledge.

[01:31:51] Conclusion of the discussion, expressing appreciation for Joaquin Kritz Lara’s insights and mentioning the sharing of research for further queries.

===========================

Where to find Joaquin Kritz Lara

===========================

Joaquin Kritz Lara on Linkedin

Numera Analytics

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Quoted Research

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Numera Analytics – US Asset Allocation – October 2023

Numera Analytics – Global Asset Allocation – October 2023

Numera Analytics – Top Conviction Calls – Week 42 – October 2023

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Posted in: Episodes

Michael Robbins: Ever seen a bad backtest?

Join us for this insight-rich conversation with Michael Robbins, a distinguished figure in quantitative asset management. He is an author, thought leader, Professor of Graduate Studies in Quantitative Investing at Columbia University, and a sitting CIO. Our conversation focuses on quantitative trading, asset management, and financial modeling. Michael’s recently published book, “Quantitative Asset Management,” offers insights into the complexities and nuances of quantitative strategies. We delve deep into the intricacies of Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTA) and explore the nuances of quantitative investment strategies.

HIGHLIGHTS

Understanding GTAA: We start by defining Global Tactical Asset Allocation and discussing effective approaches and potential pitfalls in employing this strategy.

[04:18] – Adam Butler discusses the unique challenges and advantages small investors face compared to large investors, emphasizing the benefit of portfolio agility for smaller investors.

Investment Strategy Insights: Michael Robbins shares his expertise on various aspects of investment strategies, including the importance of a fund’s management team, the significance of qualitative factors, and the role of an advisor in making informed investment decisions.

Quantitative Strategies: We explore the realm of quantitative strategies, discussing hyperparameters, the impact of biases, and the importance of defining investment goals.

The Role of Machine Learning: Delve into the use of machine learning in finance, understanding overfitting, and the challenges of translating complex financial data into actionable strategies.

[24:20] – Pierre Daillie and Michael Robbins explore the concept of overfitting in algorithmic strategies and the skepticism surrounding backtesting, highlighting the importance of a solid theoretical foundation behind investment strategies.

[34:47] – The conversation shifts to the importance of qualitative factors in investment, such as the management team’s experience and the terms of investment, which are crucial alongside performance metrics.

[26:58] – Michael Robbins emphasizes the need to eliminate luck and human bias from systematic investment programs, advocating for a more quantitative and systematic approach to investing.

[42:08] – Michael Robbins and Pierre Daillie discuss the often overlooked aspect of the personality and charisma of analytical experts in investment management, and how it affects investment decisions.

Practical Advice for Investors: Gain insights on what investors should look for in funds, the importance of diversification, and how to avoid common mistakes in quantitative investing.

[1:01:56] – The article concludes with a discussion on expanding investment horizons and differentiating oneself as an advisor by exploring unique investment strategies, as suggested by Michael Robbins.

*****

📚 About Michael Robbins: Michael Robbins is an acclaimed author and expert in finance, Professor of Graduate Studies in Quantitative Investing at Columbia University in New York, and a sitting CIO. He is known for his deep understanding of quantitative strategies and asset allocation. His insights provide valuable guidance for both new and seasoned investors.

***

Where to find Michael Robbins, CFA

Michael Robbins on Linkedin

Michael Robbins’ book – Quantitative Asset Management

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👍 Like and Share: If you find this discussion informative, please like, share, and comment below with your thoughts or questions.

#InvestmentStrategies #GlobalTacticalAssetAllocation #QuantitativeInvesting #MichaelRobbins

Posted in: Episodes

Investment Insights from WisdomTree's Jeremy Schwartz & Jeff Weniger

We’re excited to share our conversation with two distinguished guests from WisdomTree, Jeremy Schwartz and Jeff Weniger. Jeremy Schwartz, CFA, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree, shares his views on the market and economy from his vantage point of overseeing all of WisdomTree’s investment activity. Jeff Weniger, CFA, Head of Equity Strategy at WisdomTree, shares current insights from his team’s analysis of stock market trends and macroeconomic developments.

Where to find our guests:

Jeremy Schwartz

Jeff Weniger

Timestamped Highlights

[00:00] Fed Rate Hikes and Economic Impact – We begin with Jeremy Schwartz and Jeff Weniger’s analysis of Powell’s speeches, highlighting inconsistencies and effects on housing.

[04:55] Inflation and Monetary Policy Concerns over housing data, skewed rental data, and Powell’s neutral stance.

[08:33] Central Bank Policies and Banking Industry Challenges – Powell’s inflation goals, bravery of central banks, and future risks in banking.

[15:58] Banking Industry Changes and Consumer Behavior – Funding challenges for banks, high net worth individuals holding cash, and consumer spending patterns.

[20:14] Housing Market Dynamics and Potential Correction – Correction trends in housing market, millennial supply issues, and recession implications.

[26:31] Housing Market Trends: Homeowners and Renters – Low home sales volume impact, focus on home prices vs. activity, and new construction’s effect on home improvement.

[33:13] Housing Market Trends and Employment Resilience – Demand for new homes and companies’ resilience to rate hikes.

[36:49] Economic Trends, Monetary Policy, Investment Opportunities – Impact of interest rates on tech companies, Dallas Fed report, and investment insights.

[41:48] Labor Market Changes and Economic Uncertainty – Frustration with employment dynamics, real estate professionals’ struggles, and COVID-19’s impact.

[47:05] Economic Impact of Demographic Shifts and Monetary Policy – Low interest rates influencing retirement, generational conflict, and political impacts.

[53:12] Economic Stimulus, Budget Deficits, Stock Valuations – Discussion on potential stimulus, budget deficits, and high-valuation companies like Nvidia.

[58:35] Nvidia’s Potential as a Prime AI Stock – Cisco’s market position contrasted with Nvidia, and the parallel potential of a Japanese stock market resurgence.

[1:01:31] Investing in Japanese Equities] Warren Buffett’s Japanese investments, hedging currency risk, and equity investment psychology.

[1:07:28] Japanese Economy: Labor Costs and Profit Margins – Cultural shifts in Japan, labor arbitrage, and wage gap comparisons.

[1:11:50] India’s Role in Global Politics and Economy – India’s demographic advantages, investment valuation importance, and geopolitical role.

[1:17:58] Cultural Exports and Media Representation – Global cultural exports’ impact, Hollywood and Bollywood influence, and increased American interest in foreign cultures.

Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst.com

Posted in: Episodes

Nicolas Piquard: Monetizing Volatility in Bonds (a First) & Equities

Discover how covered call strategies can help investors profit from rising volatility in today’s markets. Nicolas Piquard, Chief Options Strategist at Hamilton ETFs, shares his insights on using covered call options strategies to generate income from popular bank and utilities stock holdings (HMAX and UMAX). Piquard also discusses in depth, the case for the new and timely opportunity of using a covered call strategy to enhance returns from bonds, and how Hamilton ETFs’ HBND works.

Learn why this innovative approach allows for more nuanced portfolio adjustments, without taking on additional risk.

Nicolas Piquard: Monetizing Volatility in Bonds (a First) & Equities

Timestamped Summary:

[00:00:00] Monetizing volatility with Hamilton ETFs Chief Options Strategist Nicolas Piquard

– Nick Piquard shares insights on monetizing volatility in equity and bond markets.

[00:01:16] Bank earnings, volatility, and covered calls with a focus on Canadian banks.

– discusses his career in the options space, from sell side to buy side, and his current work at Hamilton ETFs.

– Daillie asks about the outlook for bank earnings in light of recent results and expectations.

– provides a mixed view, citing both positive and negative factors, including rising interest rates and a weaker economy.

– notes that Canadian banks have historically been less volatile than US banks, but current market conditions create potential buy opportunities (0:05:25).

[00:07:06] The attractiveness of covered calls in the current market environment, with strong dividends and potential for extra yield .

[00:08:06] Covered call options in a volatile market.

Daillie notes the prevalence of Canadian bank ownership in US banks and stadium naming rights, suggesting it’s a source of national pride.

– believes there are good deals to be had in regional banks due to their low valuation, but they need access to capital to overcome challenges.

– highlights the potential opportunities for covered call option writers in a volatile market, as the price of call options increases in such environments.

– advises focusing on selling call options at the higher end of a price range to maximize performance, rather than selling too much upside at a single point.

– advises navigating short-term market volatility by using covered call strategies, avoiding short-term lows, and taking advantage of market whipsaws.

– explains how to navigate a volatile market by writing fewer call options and waiting for better entry points.

– provides an example of how to manage a situation like this in the Canadian banking sector.

[00:17:45] Options trading strategies and their implementation.

Active call strategy can help diversify exposure and adapt to changing market conditions.

– emphasizes importance of proper management of covered call strategies for long-term success.

[00:21:51] Covered call strategies in volatile markets.

– Investors seek tax-efficient income through covered call strategies on safe assets like Canadian banks and utilities, freeing up time for other investment decisions.

– Investors may seek insurance against large cap tech names, generating premiums for investors.

– discusses the benefits of using a covered call strategy in volatile markets, particularly in sectors like tech and energy where upside potential is high.

– notes that while the strategy involves giving up some upside potential, the increased yield from selling call options can help offset this trade-off.

[00:27:48] Using covered calls to diversify and generate income in a volatile market.

– Investors may benefit from diversifying into covered calls to monetize volatility in a potentially uncertain financial environment.

– Investors seeking income can use covered call strategies to monetize volatility while maintaining existing portfolio holdings.

[00:32:10] Tax loss selling and bond market strategies.

Daillie highlights the tax loss selling opportunity in the banking sector, where investors can capture tax efficient income and enhance overall yield.

– Hamilton’s new ETF exploits volatility and yield in the bond market, a strategy that has not been done before, with investors asking why it hasn’t been explored earlier.

– explains that TLT, a bond ETF, has become a popular proxy for long-term yields due to its liquidity and size, making it an attractive option for covered call strategies.

– Daillie agrees, noting that TLT has become a shorthand for long-duration bonds and its options market has become liquid, making it an ideal choice for traders.

– explains why there hasn’t been any previous covered call BOND ETF formations. The concept didn’t have any traction to become popular until recently, citing bond market trends and Fed actions.

[00:38:52] Long-term bond yields and inflation.

– identifies two key factors driving the market: investors’ perception of inflation and the ability to lock in high yields with safety.

– discusses factors contributing to sticky inflation, including demographic changes, globalization, and monetary policy.

– Counterarguments include concerns about global debt levels and the potential for higher rates to cause economic issues.

[00:44:25] Interest rate volatility and its impact on financial markets.

– notes that traditional buyers of US Treasuries, such as China and Japan, are becoming less active due to high yields in their own bond markets, potentially impacting US interest rates.

– highlights a chart showing the correlation between interest rate volatility and equity volatility, with both increasing in recent years despite the VIX decreasing.

– believes that interest rate volatility will continue to rise due to the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, leading to higher VIX levels.

[00:50:01] A new ETF strategy for fixed income investors (HBND).

– Investors can now access extra yield through a new ETF that combines fixed income exposure with covered call strategy, using TLT as the underlying bond.

– discusses using a covered call strategy with US Treasuries to generate income with lower risk.

[00:54:24] Bond market volatility and investment strategies.

– Investors may benefit from exploiting long-term yield opportunities in the bond market, particularly through covered call strategies, given the current high volatility environment and potential for sustained government spending.

– Investors can fine-tune portfolios with new opportunities for volatility monetization.

– is excited about the opportunity in bond ETFs, seeing it as a timely and popular investment opportunity.

– discuss the potential of adjusting portfolio trim without major attitude adjustment, using analogies like boat engine trim and volume control.

Closing

Where to find Nicolas Piquard

Nicolas Piquard on Linkedin

Hamilton ETFs

Strategies discussed:

HMAX – Hamilton Canadian Financials Yield Maximizer ETF

HBND -Hamilton U.S. Bond Yield Maximizer ETF

Posted in: Episodes

Darius Dale 42 Macro – Looking Back, Looking Forward to 2024

Darius Dale, Chief Strategist & Founder at 42 Macro LLC joins us for an end of Q3 360˚ take, looking back at the last year for context, and looking forward to 2024. He shares his insight from his firm’s econometric modeling, and what it is all saying about the economy and markets behaviour for the upcoming quarters and year ahead. Dale eloquently unpacks all the factors driving inflation and market in the context of today’s heightened uncertainty surrounding inflation, policy, rates, and market dynamics.

Timestamped Highlights

[00:02:25] Darius Dale believes that factors supporting growth persist into next year, inflation has surprisingly decreased, and the Fed’s policy remains unchanged.

[00:04:19] China’s economy reopening without fiscal stimulus, Europe’s growth faltering with sticky inflation causing bond market volatility. Bank of Japan likely to tweak yield curve control. Implications for asset markets.

[00:06:55] Despite concerns about inflation, consumer income and personal spending have exceeded inflation levels. Limited vulnerability in the credit cycle and decreased exposure to the manufacturing sector indicate a more resilient economy.

[00:13:17] Darius Dale’s insight, discussing a temporary risk-off scenario, the expectation of a return to equity leadership, and the potential lag in seeing the impact of interest rates on the economy. The author questions whether these circumstances will lead to a leapfrogging of debt maturity.

[00:16:41] Stock market tends to peak with employment cycle, indicating potential retail risk accumulation. Difficulty in answering question of factor dispersion.

[00:20:09] University of Michigan employment survey shows numbers inconsistent with recession patterns. Other indicators also suggest recession is unlikely.

[00:22:14] Most US mortgage holders have 30-year mortgages at low rates, so rising interest rates will take time to impact the housing market.

[00:26:04] There have been few changes in central bank policy rate expectations, but significant moves in floor policy rates, led by the US. The US economy has been performing better than expected, causing investors to believe there is no recession. The fixed income market has seen interesting trends, with minimal impact from the regional banking crisis.

[00:30:48] High interest rates will discourage refinancing for both corporate and household sectors; longest duration since the early 80s.

[00:31:53] Refinancing into higher interest rates is economically irrational. Rates will matter eventually, but not now. The Fed’s policy has created a big spread between payments and instrument yields, dragging it into a higher rate regime.

[00:35:27] The mortgage rate spread is causing stagnation in the housing market, leading to a decrease in existing home sales and an increase in new home construction.

[00:40:37] We discuss the potential for higher inflation and the use of a model to project inflation trends. It suggests that the underlying trend of inflation may be around 2.5% to 3%.

[00:44:07] The author specializes in building quantitative models backed by proven techniques. They developed an investment strategy to outperform the standard 60-40 approach by reducing bond holdings and using various risk management overlays.

[00:48:50] We discuss the inflationary era in bond market, potential for term premium to rise, bond bulls buying undervalued market.

[00:52:05] 42 Macro publishes research and prognostications on the market. They made successful calls in early January and May based on their process. They focus on behavioral aspects and reorganized their process for better outcomes.

Visit 42macro.com for more.

Posted in: Episodes

NBI's Terry Dimock: Governance in Portfolio Management Through Several Angles

Terry Dimock, Chief Risk & Execution Officer, at National Bank Investments is our guest. In this episode, Terry takes us on a journey through NBI’s OP4+ Open Architecture Investment process and framework, shedding light on the importance of creating value, the prioritization of organization, people, and process, and the meticulous monitoring of portfolios. Terry shares valuable insights into the selection of portfolio managers, the logic of integrating ESG factors, and the challenges and opportunities in the ever-changing investment landscape. We explore the inner workings of NBI’s investment management process and discover how they navigate the complexities of the market to deliver exceptional results for their investors.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:00:00] Opening remarks and introduction to Terry Dimock, a luminary in investment management.

[00:04:37] In 2012, National Bank sold its asset manager and adopted an open architecture approach to build solutions using the best portfolio managers in the world. They created OP4+, an acronym that defines what they look for in a portfolio manager, with “O” standing for organization.

[00:07:00] Where does value come from? How value is created, and the importance of people and process. Terry explains the pillars of OP4+ and monitoring portfolio positions. The goal is to ensure that the process is followed and glitches are avoided.

[00:10:03] How are NBI’s sub-advisor portfolio managers evaluated? Terry emphasizes the importance of portfolio manager selection, and the under-recognition of the risk involved is discussed. We discuss his team’s role at National Bank Investments in reducing advisor and client burden in evaluating managers.

[00:13:13] The CIO office uses teamwork to identify asset classes and portfolio needs. They may add or change managers to diversify portfolios. NBI’s Open Architecture allows flexibility in adding a multitude of asset classes and managers.

[00:16:21] We seek the best portfolio managers with a long track record, particularly in less liquid investments. Fees in these categories can be high, but we value diversification, careful selection, and scale.

[00:19:28] Quarterly performance attribution calls are held with all portfolio managers to assess performance and confirm adherence to OP4+ process. Bi-weekly check-ins and yearly on-site visits ensure trust and accuracy in information provided.

[00:24:29] Investors should consider environmental risks and the management of companies they invest in. For example, PG&E faced lawsuits and bankruptcy due to poor management after 2019 forest fires. Analysts reduced positions in companies with high risk and poor governance. It is important to analyze potential risks and ensure investment aligns with environmental objectives to avoid negative outcomes. Considering and factoring in ESG concerns was a logical decision.

[00:28:10] Terry emphasizes the need for a transition to renewable energy, ensuring job security and sustainable business practices, despite political opposition.

[00:29:56] Investors should use ESG to make credible and accountable decisions. Becoming a signatory of the UN principles for responsible investment demonstrates seriousness. Proof points about using ESG factors are necessary.

[00:33:57] We assess performance criteria and compare active managers to ETFs to ensure value for end-investors. Focus on process, not short-term metrics.

[00:36:25] Gaps in portfolio, lack of diversity, and changes can unearth reasons to lose confidence in a portfolio manager’s inclusion in NBI’s program.

[00:41:11] AI, like ChatGPT, will enhance analysis and automation, allowing focus on critical tasks. Progress in technology has consistently improved efficiency. Younger generations adapt quickly.

[00:43:22] Terry closes the conversation noting that NBI is constantly working at improving qualitative and quantitative aspects of the OP4+ process, focused on finding the right information and metrics for future success.

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Where to find Terry Dimock

=======================

Terry Dimock on Linkedin

National Bank Investments

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