Join us for this enlightening conversation with Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio Manager, Global Asset Allocation Team, at Fidelity Investments, as we delve into the economic outlook for 2024. Kolet provides invaluable insight into the Canadian and US economies, the housing market, investment strategies, and inflation protection. We explore the impact of interest rates, consumer spending, and central bank policies on investments. Kolet’s expertise sheds light on asset allocation, portfolio diversification, and the potential implications of elevated inflation rates, making this episode an absolute must-listen.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:00] Introduction – career – Bank of Canada, under Dodge and Carney, to Bloomberg, then Fidelity in Boston.

[05:24] Thoughts on Market optimism.

[12:10] Potential US economic growth boosted by technology.

[17:36] Labor market shows resilience and interest concerns.

[23:19] Reduced consumer spending leads to economic impact.

[29:47] Asset allocation process involves feedback from managers.

[33:03] Elevated rates causing financial stress in Canada.

[38:11] Diversifying and explaining investments to numerous clients.

[43:33] Services drive inflation, labor market drives expenses.

[48:45] US government faces challenges in refunding debt.

[57:25] Researchers on Wellington acknowledge economic sensitivities, rates outlook.

[01:02:28] Leverage negative sentiment, be cautious in exuberance.

[01:06:15] Questioning fixed income view, cash overweight strategic.

[01:10:13] Investors have many short and long-term options.

[01:17:30] Working with talented teams on global research.

Where to find Ilan Kolet, Fidelity Investments:

Fidelity Investments Canada – Asset Allocation Quarterly

Bio

Ilan Kolet on Linkedin

Global Asset Allocation Team – Fidelity Investments

In this insightful discussion, Dino Bourdos, Portfolio Manager & Head of Investment Solutions at Guardian Capital LP delves into the intricacies of investment strategies, particularly focusing on the use of derivatives, covered call strategies, and the impact of market dynamics on investment decisions. With his extensive experience in the field, Bourdos offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities in the current economic landscape, making this a must-watch for investors and financial professionals alike.

Timestamped Highlights:

[00:02:19] – Impact of 2008 Financial Crisis on Individual Investors: Discussion on how the 2008 crisis led to a need for risk management strategies for individual investors, leading to the development of innovative options strategies.

[00:03:39] – Guardian Capital’s Approach to Asset Management: Insights into Guardian Capital’s strategies, including the use of machine learning and AI in stock selection and the launch of innovative solutions like the Tontine.

[00:09:47] – Creating Awareness in Investment Strategies: Emphasis on the importance of understanding the mechanics of investment strategies and setting realistic expectations to avoid misconceptions.

[00:10:46] – Role of Advisors in Setting Expectations: The significance of advisors setting correct expectations and working towards delivering on them, particularly in relation to mutual funds and systematic withdrawal plans.

[00:21:02] – Fundamentals Over Yield in Investment Choices: The discussion focuses on the importance of the underlying asset in investments, rather than just the yield, and the necessity of a portfolio’s ability to grow and sustain payments.

[00:24:31] – Cover Call Strategies for Long-Term Growth: How cover call strategies can be integrated into long-term investment plans, providing tax-efficient income while maintaining portfolio value.

[00:29:04] – Personal Investment Strategy Using Home Equity: A personal anecdote about using home equity to invest in a cover call strategy, highlighting a creative approach to wealth creation.

[00:32:35] – Opportunities in Single Stock Options: Discussion on the transition from index options to single stock options and the different opportunities they present in the market.

[00:36:02] – Navigating Market Volatility with Covered Call Strategies: Insights into the use of covered call strategies during market downturns and the importance of being pragmatic and prudent in investment decisions.

[00:37:16] – Adapting Investment Strategies Amidst Global Transitions: Commentary on adapting investment strategies in response to global shifts such as from globalism to protectionism and low to high interest rates.

Where to find Dino Bourdos

Dino Bourdos on Linkedin

Guardian Capital LP

Research: Is the yield on your Covered Call Fund too high?

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Join us in conversation with Joaquin Kritz Lara, Chief Economist at Numera Analytics, as we explore the intricate world of global economics and financial markets. Hosted by Pierre Daillie and Richard Laterman, the discussion delves into the nuances of macroeconometrics, the dynamics of inflation, and the complexities of investment strategies in today’s volatile market.

Joaquin brings his extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and model building, offering unique insights into the causal relationships between economic variables and their impact on financial markets. The conversation also touches on the rigidity of Europe’s job markets, the influence of geopolitical events, and the critical role of domain knowledge in leveraging AI tools like ChatGPT for economic analysis.

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Timestamped Highlights

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[00:01:16] Introduction of Joaquin Kritz Lara, emphasizing his role and expertise in the financial sector.

[00:07:23] Discussion on macroeconomic dynamics and Fed policy impacts on financial markets, identifying a late-cycle stage in G10 countries.

[00:22:59] Analysis of the lag between real interest rate changes and consumption growth in developed markets, indicating a late-cycle economic stage.

[00:25:30] Examination of the slow-moving banking crisis and its effects on the international demand for U.S. Treasuries and term premiums.

[00:34:00] Conversation about the final stage of an economic expansion phase and the determination of optimal asset allocation weights for different investors.

[00:50:10] Discussion on complementing stock-bond portfolios in light of paradigm shifts, focusing on asset class correlations and regime shifts.

[01:29:49] Discussion on the limitations of AI tools like ChatGPT in financial analysis, highlighting the importance of domain knowledge.

[01:31:51] Conclusion of the discussion, expressing appreciation for Joaquin Kritz Lara’s insights and mentioning the sharing of research for further queries.

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Where to find Joaquin Kritz Lara

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Joaquin Kritz Lara on Linkedin

Numera Analytics

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Quoted Research

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Numera Analytics – US Asset Allocation – October 2023

Numera Analytics – Global Asset Allocation – October 2023

Numera Analytics – Top Conviction Calls – Week 42 – October 2023

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