Key Points

• The past 18 months have been marked by major swings, but ultimately little movement.

• Economic data has yet to reflect a significant impact from the trade war, but that’s unlikely to last if the stalemate drags on and/or if the next round of tariffs kick in. The burning question is whether the Fed has sufficient ammunition to offset a trade-related slowdown or recession.

• Geopolitical tensions have heated up, but market reactions to past escalations have been relatively limited.

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