Bond market outlook: Prospects brighten as Fed slows hikes

by Promod Athuri, Damien McCann, & Ritchie Tuazon, Portfolio Managers, Fixed Income, Capital Group

Bond markets had a difficult year in 2022 as the U.S. Federal Reserve aggressively hiked interest rates to stamp out inflation. With the end of rate increases in sight, investors may be wondering if volatility may be replaced with relative tranquility in the year ahead.

At its December meeting, the Fed moderated its approach and lifted rates by half a percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Investors welcomed the downshift after an unprecedented string of four 0.75 basis point adjustments by policymakers attempting to quash decades-high inflation. But officials underscored that they will continue to raise rates to around 5% next year.

Wide-ranging challenges still lie ahead. Among them: Inflation remains stubbornly high, and economic activity is expected to slow or contract.

Here, fixed income portfolio managers from across Capital Group weigh in about what’s next for bonds.

Inflation has likely peaked, but should remain high

Even the most optimistic investors are bracing for a recession. The question is more a matter of how wide or deep the downturn will be as central banks worldwide raise rates to try to contain inflation. With growth expected to stall or contract in major economies including the United Kingdom, European Union, Japan and the United States, will high prices stick around in 2023?

Inflation remains high in most economies

The image shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States from January 31, 2020, when it was 2.5% to November 30, 2022, when it was 7.1%. For the European Union the CPI was 1.7% on January 31, 2020, and it stood at 11.5% as of October 31, 2022. The numbers for the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan on January 31, 2020, were 1.8%, 2.0% and 0.7%, respectively. As of October 31, 2022, the numbers for the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan were 11.1%, 6.9% and 3.7%, respectively.

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream, Statistics Canada. U.S. data as of 11/30/22. Data for other countries/regions is current as of 10/31/22. Consumer Price Index (CPI), a commonly used measure of inflation, measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.

Demand for sectors that quickly absorb rate increases, such as housing, has predictably declined. Other areas of the economy will take more time to cool.

“The impact of rate hikes will unfold over the next several months, likely in the form of higher unemployment, fewer job openings and declining retail sales,” says fixed income portfolio manager Ritchie Tuazon.

So far, the economy has coped surprisingly well. Ironically, bright spots could feed into the inflation problem.

“There is a flavour of stagflation ahead,” Tuazon adds. Stagflation, the much-feared mix of stagnant economic growth, high unemployment and soaring prices, warrants an active approach to bond investing. “I see select opportunities within the Treasury yield curve as well as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.”

“Supply chain issues appear to have worked themselves out, but the labour shortage and persistent wage growth could keep inflation higher than the Fed’s 2% target range for some time,” Tuazon says. Geopolitical risks could further undermine the Fed’s efforts.

Bond funds should once again offer relative stability

Fixed income's role as a portfolio ballast when stocks are falling was of no help as the Fed continuously revised rate expectations upward.

Stocks and bonds rarely decline in tandem

The bar graph above shows the calendar year return in USD for both the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the MSCI World Index from January 1, 1977, to November 30, 2022. Over the period, 2022 is the only year in which both indices declined.

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., MSCI. Returns above reflect annual total returns in USD for all years except 2022, which reflect the year-to-date total return for both indices. As of 11/30/22. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.

It’s rare for both stocks and bonds to fall in tandem in a calendar year. In fact, 2022 marks the only time it occurred in 45 years. That’s because the Fed hiked aggressively when rates were near zero.

That should change in 2023 as inflation moderates. “Once the Fed pivots from its ultra-hawkish monetary policy stance, high-quality bonds should again offer relative stability and greater income,” according to fixed income portfolio manager Pramod Atluri.

But slowing growth and moderating inflation could be a good thing for high-quality fixed income. They should lead to lower yields and higher bond prices. Staying on the sidelines to wait out market volatility could mean giving up on income opportunities and the potential for an even higher total return. “Valuations are attractive, so I am selectively adding corporate credit,” Atluri says. “Bonds now offer a much healthier income stream, which should help offset any price declines.”

Investing six months prior to the final rate hike would have provided strong returns

The image shows 12-month returns and annualized five-year returns in USD for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index for six of the last hiking cycles in the last 40 years. The last hike in June of 2006 returned 4.5% in the first 12 months and 5.9% annually over five years. The last hike in May of 2000 returned 5.3% in the first 12 months and 7.2% annually over five years. The last hike in February of 1995 returned 7.7% in the first 12 months and 6.8% annually over five years. The last hike in February of 1989 returned 10.2% in the first 12 months and 10.6% annually over five years. The last hike in September of 1987 returned 7.0% in the first 12 months and 9.6% annually over five years. The last hike in May of 1981 returned 3.3% in the first 12 months and 15.6% annually over five years.

Sources: Capital Group, Bloomberg. Right chart shows date of the last hike in all Fed hiking periods since 1980, excluding the 2018 peak which does not yet have five years of data. Hypothetical 12-month dollar cost average return is the total return for a level monthly investment for 12 months starting six months prior to each last rate hike. The hypothetical five-year return annualizes the total return for that first 12 months plus four more years, assuming no additional investment after that first year. Returns are in USD. Regular investing does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.

As additional cracks start to show in the economy, recession fears may take centre stage. “One way or another, the consumer is going to feel more stressed in 2023. Either the economy is so strong it continues to feed into inflation, or the economy weakens and unemployment rises,” Atluri says.

Historically, investing prior to the final rate hike in a cycle would have paid off. In the last 40 years, there were six hiking cycles that offer five years of returns data. Purchasing bonds regularly for a year starting six months prior to the last Fed rate hike in each of those cycles would have returned a range of 3.3% to 10.2% in the first 12 months in U.S. dollar terms. Longer term, that year-long investment would have provided a five-year annualized total return that spanned from 5.9% to 15.6%.

Income is back in fixed income

Bond market losses can be painful to endure, as rising rates cause bond prices to decline. The upside is that bond yields also rise, which may set the stage for higher income down the road.

Yields have soared across asset classes

The image shows the change in yields between recent lows and November 30, 2022, for the U.S. aggregate index, investment-grade corporates, high-yield corporates, emerging markets debt and 10-year Canada government bonds. The U.S. aggregate index rose from 1.02% to 4.56%, an increase of 3.54%. Investment-grade corporates rose from 1.74% to 5.31%, an increase of 3.57%. High-yield corporates rose from 3.53% to 8.63%, an increase of 5.10%. Emerging markets debt rose from 4.36% to 7.68%, an increase of 3.32%. The yield for 10-year Canada government bonds rose from 0.43% to 2.96%, an increase of 2.53%.

Sources: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., JPMorgan, Bank of Canada. As of 11/30/22. Sector yields above include Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index, Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, 50% J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index/50% J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index blend. Period of time considered from 2020 to present. Dates for recent lows from top to bottom in chart shown are: 8/4/20, 12/31/20, 7/6/21, 1/4/21 and 8/4/20. Yields shown are yield to worst. Yield to worst is the lowest yield that can be realized by either calling or putting on one of the available call/put dates or holding a bond to maturity. "Change" figures may not reconcile due to rounding.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury hovered around 3.47% on December 14, 2022, versus a yield of 1.51% on December 31, 2021. Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, have soared across sectors. Over time, income should increase since the total return of a bond fund consists of price changes and interest paid, and the interest component is higher.

With investors better compensated for holding relatively stable bonds, the question of whether to invest in riskier corporate or high-yield bonds ahead of a potential recession is an important one.

Despite gloomy headlines, consumers continue to open their wallets. “This has helped keep corporate balance sheets in pretty good shape,” says Damien McCann, fixed income portfolio manager for Capital Group Multi-Sector Income FundTM (Canada). 

The reward potential for corporate investment-grade bonds (BBB/Baa and higher) at current levels is enticing, but many are vulnerable in a downturn. “I expect credit quality to weaken as the economy slows. In that environment, I prefer defensive sectors such as health care over homebuilders and retail,” McCann says.

High-yield bonds are also relatively well-positioned for an economic slowdown, and their prices have declined sharply. An uptick in defaults, which the market has already priced in, could still increase in a deep recession.

“We went through a significant default cycle with the pandemic,” says fixed income portfolio manager David Daigle. “The underlying credit quality of the asset class has improved markedly since 2008. I do expect fundamentals to weaken from here so I’m positioning the funds I manage to have less exposure to consumer cyclicals such as automotive and leisure since demand for their products and services will likely soften.”

Why bonds are back

After a difficult year for bonds, there are reasons for optimism. Inflation has moderated, and Fed rate hikes are likely to peak in the not-too-distant future. Higher yields and the spectre of a recession could also send investors back into bonds in search of relative stability and income.

Today’s starting yields can offer an attractive entry point for investors and provide a cushion to further volatility. There are also compelling opportunities across asset classes that an active manager can uncover via bottom-up research and security selection.

 

 


Pramod Atluri is a fixed income portfolio manager with 24 years of industry experience (as of 12/31/2022). He holds an MBA from Harvard and a bachelor’s degree from the University of Chicago. He is a CFA charterholder.

Damien J. McCann is a fixed income portfolio manager with 22 years of industry experience (as of 12/31/2021). He holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration with an emphasis on finance from California State University, Northridge. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

Ritchie Tuazon is a fixed income portfolio manager with 21 years of industry experience (as of 12/31/2021). He holds an MBA from MIT, a master's in public administration from Harvard and a bachelor's from the University of California, Berkeley.

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