What About the Russian Generals?

by Greg Valliere, AGF Management Ltd.

Insights and Market Perspectives

SEVERAL READERS RAISED AN INTRIGUING issue yesterday, after we reported that war criminal Vladimir Putin might use weapons of mass destruction if his war continues to go badly. “What would his generals do?” readers asked.

THERE’S GROWING SPECULATION in Washington that Putin’s generals are disgusted by him and his inept military strategy. Five or six generals have been killed in action, an astonishing total, along with well over 10,000 Russian dead or wounded among the rank and file, many of whom were conscripts who had been told they would be greeted in Ukraine as liberators.

THE NEW YORK TIMES quotes a retired Russian general who warned several months ago that a war would backfire. It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten “the existence of Russia itself as a state.” The general stood by those remarks this week.

A BLAME GAME apparently has erupted in Moscow, according to an article in this morning’s Times. There’s growing dissent over poor intelligence; no one in Russia dared to warn Putin that virtually all Ukrainians are prepared to die for their country.

RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE STALLED, nearly out of food, water and fuel. They’re
still a force to fear, as missiles rain down on Ukrainian cities, but some top
military officials — now scapegoats — reportedly are under house arrest in Moscow.

NO DEAL YET: Neither Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appear ready to agree on a truce, but the morale of the Russian generals could become a major wild card. They probably won’t object to cyber warfare, but would they agree to use nuclear weapons? Perhaps not. The generals, we suspect, have had enough of Vladimir Putin.

* * * * *

SUPREME COURT POLITICS: Republicans offered a preview yesterday of their November election strategy: hammer away that Democrats are soft on crime and are determined to indoctrinate pupils with Critical Race Theory. That argument has made the Supreme Court nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson a closer call.

WE THINK JACKSON IS HEADED FOR CONFIRMATION in the Senate, but she may only get 51 or 52 votes; a 50-50 tie, broken by Vice President Harris, isn’t out of the question. Democrats are still reeling from the “defund the police” debacle and the victory of Glenn Youngkin in Virginia last November that made Critical Race Theory a pivotal issue.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.




The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

This post was first published at the AGF Perspectives Blog.

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