Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (April 14, 2014)

Energy and Natural Resources Market Radar (April 14, 2014)

 

The Evolution of Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices
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Strengths

  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil reached a five-week high to $103 a barrel as U.S. consumer confidence rose in April and gasoline demand increased the most in three months.
  • China’s metal imports soared in March. Copper imports surged 10.8 percent month-over-month to 420 thousand metric tonnes, on expectations of increased seasonal demand through the second quarter of 2014.  Also, iron ore imports climbed 20.8 percent from the prior month to 74.0 million tonnes, taking first-quarter imports to 222.0 million tonnes.
  • Nickel prices hit a 52-week high on concerns about the potential shortages following a ban on ore exports from Indonesia. The three-month LME nickel contract hit an intraday high of $17,226 per metric tonne on April 10, the highest since March 2013.

Weaknesses

  • The World Bank lowered its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent, taking into account soft data on industrial output and exports in the first two months of the year, the organization said in a report.
  • Copper is heading for the biggest surplus in 13 years as new supply hits the market. The excess may turn out to be smaller than investors expect, as new mines struggle to ramp up, according to the metal’s biggest producer. The prospect of supply exceeding demand by 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes depends on the successful execution of several projects, according to Codelco’s CEO.

Opportunities

  • China will shut down roughly 2,000 small coal mines this year, with a total capacity of 117 million tonnes, as part of Beijing’s ongoing plan to reduce the alarming rates of air pollution and reduce the nation’s dependency on the fossil fuel.
  • Global steel usage will increase by 3.1 percent in 2014 and 3.3 percent in 2015, says the World Steel Association, after a stronger-than-expected, second-half performance in the developed world helped demand growth reach 3.6 percent in 2013.
  • The House Energy and Commerce Committee released a new white paper yesterday touting the benefits of LNG exports to the U.S. economy and U.S. allies.  The report urges that all pending LNG export applications be approved, and that the process be streamlined to expedite future applications. Unless the Department of Energy (DOE) moves quicker, the U.S. could miss valuable export opportunities, the paper says. The report is entitled "Prosperity at Home and Strengthened Allies Abroad – A Global Perspective.”
  • Enbridge has obtained a license to re-export Canadian oil from the United States, becoming the first company to publicly confirm re-exports.  The move could fuel further debate over U.S. trade policy and oil sands pipelines. The company has a license to export "limited quantities" of Canadian oil from a U.S. port, Enbridge said, with market sources expecting the first cargoes to sail for Europe later in April.

Threats

  • China is estimated to lose up to 1.28 million barrels per day of crude distillation capacity this quarter as refineries shut down for maintenance, suggesting a drop off in crude imports.
  • A vast majority of Chileans, 74 percent to be exact, believe mining companies should pay higher taxes and that those funds should be allocated to the regions where mining operations are based, reveals a survey conducted by pollster MORI and the country’s Catholic University.
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