Credit Markets Pricing in Slowdown, Equity Markets in Denial

Following credit market charts can be a much better source of insight into the health of the overall markets and economy than equity markets, unless of course you're a high frequency trader. Equity markets have failed to indicate the most current and previous recessions; in fact, if anything, equity markets have been in a state of denial. Credit markets have, on the other hand, a much better track record, and have been signalling economic softness for many months.

Even while the equity market celebrated the Fed's stimulus via QE, the credit market has and remains soberly focused on reality, remaining as one facet of a supposedly free market system that cannot be manipulated so easily.

Courtesy MacroStory:

When the economy weakens interest rates fall resulting in less demand to switch to a fixed rate, thus falling swap rates.

Rates already at multi year lows have really rolled over recently as the economic data has deteriorated at an accelerated pace.

With rates so low it speaks volumes to the structural problems within the US economy as monetary policy has done nothing to fuel growth.

Rates for both financial and non financial are at multi year lows and have been trending lower since June of 2010 another sign of a weakening economy as the need for commercial paper falls.


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