1 Leading Economic Index (LEI) is an economic leading indicator calculated by the Conference Board, a U.S.-based non-government organization. The index is intended to forecast future economic activity by combining the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. The single index value composed from these ten variables has generally proved capable of predicting recessions over the past 50 years.
2 Major Five Asia consists of China, Japan, India, Korea and Indonesia.
3 Post-Lehman” refers to the period after U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
4 Credit default swap (CDS) is a swap contract designed to transfer the credit exposure of a fixed income product between parties. The protection buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments to the protection seller in exchange for a payoff should a credit instrument such as a bond or loan experience a credit event. Credit events could include such items as default, bankruptcy or restructuring.
5 PIIGS is an acronym that refers to the economies of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, usually in context to their sovereign debt.