Seasoned trader Adam Hewison, CEO, MarketClub, shares his take on the euro:
“We ended 2009 with the overriding consensus that the dollar was going to be under pressure and keep moving lower against the euro. Well guess what, the euro proved to be even weaker than the US dollar as it moved to levels not seen since May of 2009.
So what happened? Was conventional thinking wrong, or did the market get it right? We may be at a tipping point where conventional thinking could well be wrong again.
In this new video Hewison shares what he sees in the euro/dollar cross right now.
This week Consuelo Mack is joined on WealthTrack by David Winters, a noted value investor who Smart Money magazine identified as one of the “world’s greatest investors”. He searches the world for high quality companies selling at deep discounts to their intrinsic values through the Wintergreen Fund, which brings a hedge fund’s “go anywhere and invest in anything” flexibility to mutual fund customers. In this interview, Winters shares where he is finding value in the market now.
Note: The transcript of this interview is not available yet, but will be posted here as soon as it arrives.
This week Consuelo Mack is joined on WealthTrack by twoinvestment champions from independent research firm, ISI Group. Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one ranked economist for an unprecedented thirty years running, and top ranked portfolio strategist, Francois Trahan, share their 2010 forecasts.
ISI believes the economy is going to surprise on the upside next year. Hyman tells us why, where and how much. Trahan hit the bull’s-eye with his forecasts of a very strong and enduring rally this year. He has much more modest expectations for 2010 and shares his predictions and strategy to make money regardless.
Note: The transcript of this interview is not available yet, but will be posted here as soon as it arrives.
Barry Ritholtz shares an interesting note on the rally in the dollar. The MACD has turned up and crossed over, signalling that traders and U.S. dollar carry-traders are nervous about their short positions in the dollar. With the Japan-easing underway, its possible that during the course of the year, the yen will replace the dollar as the primary funding currency. Time to bet on a return of volatility in risk assets.
On another note, the Canadian dollar is set to weaken relative to the greenback, should the rally in the dollar gain traction.
We know that “Short the US Dollar” has been a crowded trade for some time now. And, after falling 41% from 2001 to 2008, the fat part of the collapse has already happened.
Will it continue? That’s what today’s chart looks at.
How likely is it that the rest of the world will stand idly by and allow: a) US manufacturing competitiveness a huge advantage via weak currency?; 2) Massive US debt to be inflated away through dollar weakness?
Quite possibly not, as other currencies engage in a race to the bottom. The chart below suggests a dollar rally is in the offing: >
Adam Hewison strikes again with the ten-thousand-foot-view of the market with three new technical analysis videos on the Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil, Gold - These are relevant analyses given that crude and gold are both priced in US dollars:
The above chart is Adam showing the declining trend of the US Dollar Index along with the positive (standard) MACD Divergence… and the recent positive trendline break. As such, his video is entitled:
“The crude oil market continues to soften and is now close to some important levels that I think we should look at. In my new video we look at what is happening in this market right now and what we expect to happen in the future.
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As we have indicated in our earlier posts, we are now in the official “silly season” for trading. What I mean by that is the markets will be very thin, choppy and can be moved by a relatively small amount of money.”
Finally, Adam posts a quick 3-min update on Gold strangely titled:
We are already in the “silly season” and what I mean by that is after December 15 most traders are not serious about the markets and they’re not committed to any large positions for the balance of the year.
As you will see in the video, gold has fallen back to an area that should provide support, however it will remain choppy and thinly traded for the balance of the year.”
“What happens after the stimulus spending wears off?,” asks Paul Kasriel, chief economist of Northern Trust. In this video clip, he shares his prognosis on inflation, the US dollar and the year ahead.
Click here or on the image below to view the video clip.
Click here for the first part of “Waking up in recovery”.
The S&P has been making very interesting moves and in this highly technical video Adam Hewison shows his thoughts on the S&P and its something you’ll want to see.
Title : Has the S&P broken final support?
Title : Has the S&P broken final support?
In Hewison’s last video on the S&P 500 (10/27),he indicated that this market may have topped out for the year. Today’s action puts in place a weekly “Trade Triangle” which indicates that a temporary or a permanent top is now in place for this market.
In this latest video, Hewison shares some of the ideas that may potentially come into play for this market. Not only are there some downside targets in mind, but also see a pattern that could evolve in the next several weeks which will confirm we’ve made a serious high in this market.
As usual, we’re impressed by Hewison’s trading know-how, and it always makes for food for thought.
Yep, the share prices of the two mining giants have crossed. After suffering another sickening fall on Thursday, Rio shares (down 10 per cent) are now trading at £10.40, about 4p lower than BHP’s.
This is seriously embarrassing for Rio. After all, BHP’s abandoned bid was pitched at a ratio of 3.4:1.
Of course, the reason Rio is being dragged lower is debt. And Rio has a lot of it - $40bn to be precise, against a market value of $27bn.
The company says it will be able to meet its debt repayments ($8.9bn is due next September) and does not need a rights issue.
But the market doesn’t believe Rio, and the result is a sinking share price.
Since BHP walked away last week, Rio shares have fallen 58 per cent.
Stay on top of the latest headlines from the Wall Street Journal Online.
WSJ What's News Late Edition, March 15, 2010by The Wall Street Journal 15 Mar 2010 at 5:54pm
Blue chips edge higher in a nervous market; Boston Scientific recalls its implantable defirbrillators; and Continental to charge for food in coach.
Jeffrey Saut Daily Audio Comment Raymond James
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Jeff Saut’s Daily Audio Comment is recorded every weekday, except Wednesday, at 9 a.m. ET. It is made available to the public on this Web page at approximately 1 p.m. ET.
