Barry Ritholtz Sticks with Stocks, Especially Emerging Markets

Friday, February 26th, 2010

“As long as the Fed is going to make money free … it’s hard to find a short,” said blogger and FusionIQ CEO Barry Ritholtz. According to Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, he is not as bullish as he was last March when he called the market bottom, but Ritholtz is sticking with stocks. “The easy thing to do now would be to go to cash,” he said, “[But] I rarely find the easy trade is the one that makes you money.”

Ritholtz is now favoring emerging markets that will withstand a weak US economy, including the likes of South Korea, Brazil, Taiwan and Singapore.

Source: Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, February 25, 2010.

Tags: Barry Ritholtz, Blogger, Brazil, Ceo, Economy, Emerging Markets, Market Bottom, Money, Singapore, South Korea, Stocks, Taiwan, Yahoo, Yahoo Finance
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Ian Ainsworth - The Case For High Technology

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

Ian Ainsworth, 25-year veteran fund manager, and two time Canadian Investment Awards winner, discusses the case for high technology with Dan Richards, of Client Insights.

Source: ClientInsights.ca, February 10, 2010

This video interview is just one of many produced recently by Dan Richards, in an effort to bring the industry and market closer to the people who manage money. Find this and many other fund manager interviews at http://www.ClientInsights.ca.

Tags: Ainsworth, Awards Winner, Canada, Canadian Investment Awards, High Technology, Insights, Money, People, Veteran, Video Interview
Posted in Bonds, Markets | No Comments »

Money Never Sleeps

Friday, January 29th, 2010

This is the trailer for Wall Street 2 : Money Never Sleeps.

Tags: Money, Wall Street
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Chart of the Day: Lending Still Shrinking

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

As shown in the graph below, courtesy of Clusterstock - Business Insider, the latest figures from the St. Louis Fed show that commercial and industrial lending is still declining.

The dilemma is that US banks can borrow for almost nothing and lend money to the government by buying 10-year Treasury Notes and 30-year Treasury Bonds with yields of 3.8% and 4.6% respectively. “Thus, the banks are thriving on the ‘yield curve’ while the poor slob on the street gets nothing for his savings (assuming he has any savings at all). And when you think about it, why should the banks make risky loans to the poor goof on Main Street when they can play the yield curve with almost zero risk?, remarked Richard Russell, author of the Dow Theory Letters.

It goes without saying that lending needs to expand before a decent economic recovery can get under way.

Source: Clusterstock - Business Insider, January 4, 2009.

Tags: 10 Year Treasury Notes, 30 Year Treasury Bonds, Advertisement, Banks, Business Insider, Dilemma, Dow Theory Letters, Economic Recovery, Goof, Graph, January 4, Money, Poor Slob, Richard Russell, risk, Risky Loans, Treasury Yields, Yield Curve
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Ed Hyman & Francois Trahan – forecasts for 2010 (WealthTrack)

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

This week Consuelo Mack is joined on WealthTrack by two investment champions from independent research firm, ISI Group. Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one ranked economist for an unprecedented thirty years running, and top ranked portfolio strategist, Francois Trahan, share their 2010 forecasts.

ISI believes the economy is going to surprise on the upside next year. Hyman tells us why, where and how much. Trahan hit the bull’s-eye with his forecasts of a very strong and enduring rally this year. He has much more modest expectations for 2010 and shares his predictions and strategy to make money regardless.

Note: The transcript of this interview is not available yet, but will be posted here as soon as it arrives.

Source: Wealthtrack, December 18, 2009.

Tags: Advertisement, Economist, Economy, Ed Hyman, Francois Trahan, Independent Research Firm, Investment, Investment Firm, Investment Research, Isi Group, Mack, Money, Portfolio Strategist, Rally, Shares, Thirty Years, Wall Street, Wealthtrack
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Barry Ritholtz – still bullish on stocks, but not for the long term

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

“The market’s bias is still to the upside. We’re giving the rally the benefit of the doubt. Innocent until proven guilty,” said Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ in an interview on Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker.

Ritholtz expects the market to continue to go higher in the first part of 2010, suggesting 1,250-1,300 as an upside target for the S&P 500, but still thinks we are in a cyclical (short-term) bull market within a secular (long-term) bear market, which began in 2000.

“The goal from now until let’s call it 2015 is to preserve capital - see if you can make a little money here or there - but be ready for the next 15-to-20 year bull market,” he said.

Source: Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, December 18, 2009.

Tags: Amp, Barry Ritholtz, Bear Market, Benefit Of The Doubt, Bias, Bull Market, Ceo, Fusion, Innocent, Iq, Money, Rally, Stocks, Target, Ticker, Yahoo, Yahoo Finance
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WealthTrack: Niall Ferguson – Implications of America’s exploding debt

Monday, December 14th, 2009

This week Consuelo Mack is joined on WealthTrack by historian Niall Ferguson. He is also the author of several excellent best sellers, including his most recent “The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World“.

Ferguson tells Consuelo what the seismic global economic and market shifts of recent years mean for our future, particularly the longer-term implications of America’s exploding debt. He is erudite, articulate, energetic, charming and professionally prolific, making for a must-view interview.

Note: The transcript of this interview is not available yet, but will be posted here as soon as it arrives.

Source: Wealthtrack, December 11, 2009.

Tags: Advertisement, Ascent, Best Sellers, Financial History, Historian, History Of The World, Mack, Market Shifts, Money, Money History, Niall Ferguson, Term Implications, Wealthtrack
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Trading – ten common elements of success

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

This post is a guest contribution by Charles Kirk, author of the popular The Kirk Report.

From time to time I have been asked to offer my perspectives on things I have found common in successful traders. I have always struggled with my reply to that question because there are only a few traders of which I have gained enough understanding of what they do every day to achieve their results.

However, in Van Tharp’s latest book “Super Trader,” he provides ten common characteristics frequently found among the best of the best among the hundreds of traders he’s worked with throughout his career. Like me, I think you may find it of interest!

1. They all have a tested, positive expectancy system that’s proved to make money for the market type for which it was designed.

2. They all have systems that fit them and their beliefs. They understand that they make money with their systems because their systems fit them.

3. They totally understand the concepts they are trading and how those concepts generate low-risk ideas.

4. They all understand that when they get into a trade, they must have some idea of when they are wrong and will bail out.

5. They all evaluate the ratio of reward to risk in each trade they take. For mechanical traders, this is part of their system. For discretionary traders, this is part of their evaluation before they take the trade.

6. They all have a business plan to guide their trading. You must treat your trading like any other business.

7. They all use position sizing. They have clear objectives written out, something that most traders/investors do not have. They also understand that position sizing is the key to meeting those objectives and have worked out a position sizing algorithm to meet those objectives.

8. They all understand that performance is a function of personal psychology and spend a lot of time working on themselves. You must become an efficient rather than inefficient decision maker.

9. They take total responsibility for the results they get. They don’t blame someone else or something else. They don’t justify their results. They don’t feel guilty or ashamed about their results. They simply assume that they created them and that they can create better results by eliminating mistakes.

10. They understand that not following their system and business plan rules is a mistake.

Source: Charles Kirk, The Kirk Report, November 18, 2009.

Tags: Advertisement, Algorithm, Business Guide, Business Plan, Charles Kirk, Decision Maker, Elements, Investors, Kirk Report, Lot, Money, Personal Psychology, Perspectives, Position Sizing, Reply, risk, Success, Successful Traders, Van Tharp
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Eric Sprott: Investment Outlook (November 2009)

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Eric Sprott’s just released his latest investment outlook, Surreality Check Part Two: Dead Government Walking. Its a follow up to Surreality Check Part One: Dead Men Walking, originally published in November 2007 where Sprott described the ‘bizarro’ market preceding last year’s credit and financial market meltdown. As usual, its excellent reading, as Sprott does his best to make sense of the senseless:

The equity market performance in November 2007 masked the underlying problems plaguing the financial system at the time, and it’s blindingly apparent that it is doing the same again today. The government has assumed most of the financial system’s liabilities in a giant game of ‘kick the can’. The calls for a new bull market are coming fast and furious. Market participants are bidding up the stocks of companies that are demonstrably bankrupt, and government balance sheets have ballooned to unforeseen levels. As respected market commentator David Rosenberg recently wrote, “the stock market is divorced from economic reality”.1 It’s time for another surreality check, but this time it isn’t the publicly traded companies that deserve attention, it’s the governments that have saved them. Make no mistake - the dead men are still walking - they’re just a lot bigger now than they were two years ago, and they don’t generate earnings - they print money and tax their citizens.

Download the whole report here.

Tags: Advertisement, Balance Sheets, Bizarro, Citizens, David Rosenberg, Dead Men, Dead Men Walking, Earnings, Economic Reality, Eric Sprott, Financial Market Meltdown, Game, Governments, Investment Outlook, Liabilities, Market Commentator, Market Participants, Market Performance, Mistake, Money, Stock Market, Stocks
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Hugh Hendry: Stocks and Gold are crowded - “All one way, all one trade”

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Some of the best commentary on CNBC happens at 2:00 a.m. Hugh Hendry, the CIO and founding partner of Eclectica, visits CNBC to discuss his macro-perspective. As always, Hendry is must view material - controversial, but not in left field; highly educational, eloquent, and lucid. Here is the visit in 8 parts.

Hugh Hendry, Part 1 of 8, Hendry: Markets are “crowded”, all “one trade”.

Stocks and gold are crowded markets and there is a risk that everybody will want to exit at the same time, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at Eclectica, told CNBC Friday.

“I think it’s all one way, all one trade, there’s no diversification. You’re either in the market or you’re not,” Hendry, who is the second-largest investor in his fund, told “Squawk Box” in London.

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“I won’t jeopardize my capital even for a rally as big as it is today,” he added.
The remarkable thing about the stock market is “the absence of volume associated with it,” Hendry said.

Hugh Hendry, Part 2 of 8, Letter from a viewer asking Hugh to admit he’s wrong about deflation; “I’m the bogeyman”.

Continues on Page 2…

Tags: Art Market, Asset Classes, Bogeyman, Chief Investment Officer, China, Cio, Cnbc, Conclusion, Contentious Area, Currencies, Current, Deflation, Diversification, Elephant, Emerging Markets, GDP, Gold, Gold Gold, Goldman Sachs, Hugh Hendry, Investing In Gold, Iphones, Japanese Economies, London Advertisement, Macro Perspective, Money, Replace China, Safe Haven, Segment, Soros, Squawk Box, Stock Market, Stocks, Strains, Trade Stocks, Treasuries, Treasurys, Viewer Mail, Yuan
Posted in Emerging Markets, Gold, Markets | No Comments »

Jeremy Siegel: Did he get it wrong?

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

Jeremy Siegel is professor of finance of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsyilvania. But he is perhaps best known for his 1994 book Stocks for the Long Run, in which he explained why he believes buying and holding stocks is the best approach to investing.

In Part 1 of an interview with John Authers, investment editor of the Financial Times, Siegel is asked whether he got it wrong against the backdrop of last year’s market crash.

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

In Part 2, Siegel explains why the ageing populations in developed countries mean investors need to put money into emerging markets, or risk losing out.

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Source: John Authers, Financial Times (here and here), October 14, 2009.

Tags: Backdrop, Book Stocks, Buying Stocks, Developed Countries, Emerging Markets, Finance, Financial Times, Investors, Jeremy Siegel, John Authers, Market Crash, Money, Money Markets, Populations, risk, S Market, Video Advertisement, Video Source, Wharton School
Posted in Emerging Markets, Markets | No Comments »

Julian Robertson: Markets will pay the piper

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Julian Robertson, Tiger Management founder and chairman, is always worthwhile listening to. I somehow missed his appearance on CNBC last week, but the content is still as topical as a few days ago. My apologies for the delay.

The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country’s debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Robertson told CNBC.

“It’s almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don’t buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. “I don’t know where we could get the money. I think we’ve let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try to get out of it.

“If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15-20%,” he said.  “It’s not a question of the economy. It’s a question of who will lend us the money if they don’t. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we’re totally dependent on those two countries. It’s crazy.”

There are two versions of the interview - short and extended. Both are given below.

Short version (8 minutes):

Extended version (31 minutes):

Source: CNBC (here and here), September 24, 2009.

Tags: Apologies, Appearance, Armageddon, Bonds, China, Cnbc, Economic Problems, Economy, Few Days, inflation, Japan, Julian Robertson, Money, Piper, Tiger, Tiger Management, Two Versions
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