Economy and Bond Market Highlights

Monday, March 8th, 2010

The Economy and Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note increased by 7 basis points during the week to 3.68 percent. The entire move came on Friday after the February jobs report showed fewer job losses than expected and the unemployment rate holding steady.

U.S. manufacturing expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month. Although February’s ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 56.5, a drop from January’s 58.4 and lower than the consensus of 57.9, any reading above 50 indicates an expansion. This expansion from August thru February can be seen in the graph below.

Strengths

• The February nonfarm payroll report showed a loss of 36,000 jobs, fewer than the 68,000 than was expected. The unemployment rate for February was unchanged at 9.7 percent, better than expectations of 9.8 percent.
• As explained above, U.S. manufacturing expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month.
• Service industries in the U.S. strengthened more than anticipated. The ISM Non-manufacturing Index for February was 53.0, above the 51.0 expected and the level of 50.5 that was reported in January.
• Same-store retail sales increased for the third consecutive month in February. The International Council of Shopping Centers’ Index of 31 retailers (excludes Wal-Mart) showed a 3.7 percent same-store sales increase in February from a year earlier.
• Figures from the Commerce Department showed that personal spending rose by 0.5 percent in January over December, slightly more than the 0.4 percent expected.

Weaknesses

• Pending sales of existing homes fell 7.6 percent month-over-month in January, below expectations for a 1.0 percent increase. Poor winter weather was a contributing factor.
• Commerce Department figures showed that personal income rose month-over-month in January by 0.1 percent, less than the 0.4 percent expected.

Opportunities

• If financial markets are a good mechanism for discounting the future, the future appears relatively robust. The markets have been able to shake off bad news relatively easily recently, a good sign for the economic recovery.

Threats

• When governments around the world begin to wind down the monetary and fiscal stimulus programs put in place during the economic crisis, it will likely present a headwind for the economy.

Tags: Advertisement Opportunities, Basis Points, Bond Market, Commerce Department, Consensus, Financial Markets, Graph, International Council Of Shopping Centers, International Shopping, Ism Manufacturing Index, Job Losses, Jobs, Market Economy, Nonfarm Payroll Report, Personal Income, Retail Sales, U S Treasury, Unemployment Rate, Wal Mart, Winter Weather
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Economy and Bond Market Highlights

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

The Economy and Bond Market

Consumer confidence took a dive this month, highlighting the fragile nature of the economic recovery. Most of the economic news out this week from consumer confidence, to housing and concerns regarding European stability had a negative bias to it.

Strengths

• Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterated his view that record low interest rates would be maintained for some time while the economy recovers from the recession.
• Fourth-quarter GDP, fueled by business spending, was revised higher to 5.9 percent from 5.7 percent.
• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the emergency fiscal stimulus created more than 2 million jobs and boosted the economy more than many had expected.

Weaknesses

• New home sales hit a new record low, falling to just 309,000 annualized units.
• Existing home sales were also weak, falling 7.2 percent in January.
• Weekly initial jobless claims rose to 496,000 and hit the highest level in three months. This is a sign the economic recovery remains uneven.

Opportunities

• If financial markets are a good mechanism for discounting the future, the future appears relatively robust. The markets have been able to shake off bad news relatively easily this week, probably a good sign for the economic recovery.

Threats

• If one of the eurozone countries were to seriously threaten default, the whole eurozone system comes into question and threatens global financial stability.

Tags: Bad News, Bond Market, Bonds, Congressional Budget Office, Consumer Confidence, Economic News, Economic Recovery, European Stability, Eurozone Countries, Existing Home Sales, Fed Chairman Bernanke, Financial Markets, Fiscal Stimulus, Fourth Quarter, Fragile Nature, Global Financial Stability, Initial Jobless Claims, Low Interest Rates, Negative Bias, Quarter Gdp, Recession
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The Economy and Bond Market Highlights

Saturday, February 20th, 2010

The Economy and Bond Market

In a surprise move this week, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate (the rate at which banks borrow from the Fed), indicating that we have begun a new phase of monetary policy. Fed Chairman Bernanke just last week suggested that this process was just around the corner, but many market participants were surprised at how quickly the Fed acted. While it still may be some time before the Fed raises other short-term interest rates, the process could be faster than many had predicted. The fed funds futures market reacted to this week’s developments as can be seen in the chart below. The futures curve shifted higher, especially during 2011.

Strengths

• January CPI rose a modest 0.2 percent and “core” prices actually fell slightly. Inflation remains contained for the time being, which allows the Fed plenty of room to maneuver.
• Industrial production rose a very strong 0.9 percent in January to reach the highest level in more than a year.
• Housing starts hit a six-month high, even with suboptimal weather in many parts of the country.

Weaknesses

• The increase in the discount rate signals the beginning of a tightening cycle.
• China sold $34 billion in Treasury securities in December, a sign of waning demand for U.S. debt.
• While consumer prices were well-behaved in January, producer prices were another story. January PPI rose 1.4 percent driven by higher energy prices.

Opportunities

• If financial markets are a good mechanism for discounting the future, the future appears relatively robust. The markets have been able to shake off bad news relatively easily this week, probably a good sign for the economic recovery.

Threats

• If one of the eurozone countries were to seriously threaten default, the whole euro currency system comes into question and threatens global financial stability.

Tags: Bond Market, Bonds, China, Core Prices, CPI, Currency System, Economic Recovery, Economy, Emerging Markets, Energy Prices, Eurozone Countries, Fed Chairman, Fed Funds Futures, Financial Markets, Futures Market, Global Financial Stability, Higher Energy, Market Participants, Plenty Of Room, Ppi, Producer Prices, Surprise Move, Term Interest, Treasury Securities
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Economy and Bond Market Highlights

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

The Economy and Bond Market
Treasury yields rallied again this week as concerns over Chinese attempts to slow their economy may threaten the global economic recovery. It was reported that China’s government ordered banks to slow down their lending to prevent overheating the economy. The Chinese government has enacted several measures in recent weeks aimed at slowing their economy which expanded 10.7 percent on a year over year basis in the fourth quarter.

Economic data was mixed this week and other macro issues were more significant in driving the market. The Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) rose more than expected, rising 1.1 percent in December. The chart below plots the LEI index and GDP on a year over year basis since 1980. If economic activity follows historical patterns, GDP is due for a significant recovery as we move through 2010.

Strengths

• The Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) rose more than expected, rising 1.1 percent in December.
• China’s GDP rose a very robust 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
• 30 year mortgage rates dropped below 5 percent for the first time in four weeks.

Weaknesses

• The Chinese government has enacted several measures in recent weeks aimed at slowing their economy.
• Housing in general appears to be bouncing along a bottom but unable to make sustained improvement.
• The producer price index rose 0.2 percent in December and on a year over year basis has jumped 4.4 percent driven largely by rising energy prices.

Opportunity

• Expectations continue to build for growth in the U.S. in the current quarter, possibly as much as 4 to 5 percent. The global economic recovery appears to be taking hold.

Threat

• Coordinated global removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus is the biggest threat to the financial markets.

The Economy and Bond Market

Treasury yields rallied again this week as concerns over Chinese attempts to slow their economy may threaten the global economic recovery. It was reported that China’s government ordered banks to slow down their lending to prevent overheating the economy. The Chinese government has enacted several measures in recent weeks aimed at slowing their economy which expanded 10.7 percent on a year over year basis in the fourth quarter.

Economic data was mixed this week and other macro issues were more significant in driving the market. The Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) rose more than expected, rising 1.1 percent in December. The chart below plots the LEI index and GDP on a year over year basis since 1980. If economic activity follows historical patterns, GDP is due for a significant recovery as we move through 2010.

Strengths

• The Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) rose more than expected, rising 1.1 percent in December.
• China’s GDP rose a very robust 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
• 30 year mortgage rates dropped below 5 percent for the first time in four weeks.

Weaknesses

• The Chinese government has enacted several measures in recent weeks aimed at slowing their economy.
• Housing in general appears to be bouncing along a bottom but unable to make sustained improvement.
• The producer price index rose 0.2 percent in December and on a year over year basis has jumped 4.4 percent driven largely by rising energy prices.

Opportunity

• Expectations continue to build for growth in the U.S. in the current quarter, possibly as much as 4 to 5 percent. The global economic recovery appears to be taking hold.

Threat

• Coordinated global removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus is the biggest threat to the financial markets.

Tags: 30 Year Mortgage Rates, Banks, Bond Market, China, Chinese Attempts, Chinese Government, Economic Activity, Economic Data, Economic Recovery, Economy, Emerging Markets, Energy Prices, Financial Markets, GDP, Index Of Leading Indicators, Macro Issues, Market Economy, Measures, Producer Price Index, Rising Energy, Stimulus, Treasury Yields, Year Mortgage
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El-Erian: Markets Not Facing Reality of Slow Economy

Saturday, January 16th, 2010

Financial markets have failed to price in the remaining problems that bedevil a long-term economic recovery, Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.

“You come to the conclusion that the market simply hasn’t priced in the reality of what we talk about every single day,” said El-Erian, who helps run the world’s largest bond fund.

“What you’re getting is a recovery phase, a healing phase that was artificially created,” he said. “The history of crises is very clear. They expose structural problems and when you look at the structural problems you need a structural response, and so far we’ve only had a cyclical response.”

A lasting recovery will only be built on real growth and not that which is stimulated by government, he said.

Source: CNBC, January 15, 2010.

Tags: Bond Fund, Cnbc, Conclusion, Crises, Economic Recovery, Facing Reality, Financial Markets, Mohamed El Erian, Recovery Phase, Single Day, Slow Economy
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Bill Gross: Investment Outlook (January 2010)

Thursday, January 7th, 2010

Bill Gross, co-Chief, PIMCO, has just released his latest instalment of his newsletter, titled, “Let’s Get Fisical.”

In it, Gross discusses the theme, that 2010 will be a year of “exit strategies,” of breaking free of government assistance. As usual, Gross’ outlook is captivating, and like others requires some interpretation as well as look-through.

Here is an excerpt:

“If 2008 was the year of financial crisis and 2009 the year of healing via monetary and fiscal stimulus packages, then 2010 appears likely to be the year of “exit strategies,” during which investors should consider economic fundamentals and asset markets that will soon be priced in a world less dominated by the government sector. If, in 2009, PIMCO recommended shaking hands with the government, we now ponder “which” government, and caution that the days of carefree check writing leading to debt issuance without limit or interest rate consequences may be numbered for all countries.”

and,

Additionally, if exit strategies proceed as planned, all U.S. and U.K. asset markets may suffer from the absence of the near $2 trillion of government checks written in 2009. It seems no coincidence that stocks, high yield bonds, and other risk assets have thrived since early March, just as this “juice” was being squeezed into financial markets. If so, then most “carry” trades in credit, duration, and currency space may be at risk in the first half of 2010 as the markets readjust to the absence of their “sugar daddy.” There’s no tellin’ where the money went? Not exactly, but it’s left a suspicious trail. Market returns may not be “so fine” in 2010.

I find it unusual that the discussion of carry trades is seldom discussed in depth, especially when it is such an integral, and functional, moving part of both the credit and equity markets. There has been a noticeable amount of press on the dollar carry trade ending, and the threat that poses, but very little on the subsequent presence and resumption in the yen carry trade, our Japanese “sugar-daddy.” As Hosein Askari recently asked, “Whose paying for the beer?”

Gross doesn’t mention it. There has been a reversal of the inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and equity markets, emerging markets, commodities,  and the Canadian dollar, et al., since the U.S. dollar recovered off its late November lows. Where is the mysterious support coming from? Perhaps its too early to tell, OR, those who do know about it, are exploiting the opportunity, and keeping their lips tightly sealed.

Read the whole newsletter here.

Tags: Asset Markets, Bill Gross, Canada, Check Writing, China, Commodities, Debt Issuance, Economic Fundamentals, Emerging Markets, Exit Strategies, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Fiscal Stimulus, Government Assistance, Government Checks, Government Sector, Gross Co, Gross Investment, High Yield Bonds, Instalment, Investment Outlook, PIMCO, Shaking Hands, Sugar Daddy
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Carry Trades Make and Break Markets

Monday, December 21st, 2009

Financial markets have been swept up during the last nine months by the Fed’s easy money policies, particularly its zero-interest-rate policy, which fostered a carry-trade in the dollar. Now, as the dollar rallies, and the Japanese economy and yen falter, the short term appointment of the dollar as the primary funding currency may be ending. Some say that it will be dire for markets. Perhaps the best news right now for the US and Canada is the bad news from Japan, of record deflation, and the BoJ’s need to devalue the yen. There’s a good chance the yen will replace dollar, and resume its decade-plus-long position as the world’s primary funding currency, and that’s good news for the market in the longer term. In the near-term transition period, however, markets will be volatile, as one carry unwinds, and the other re-winds.

Read more here:  Carry Trades Make and Break Markets, GlobeAdvisor.com, December 21, 2009

Tags: Advertisement, Bad News, Best News, Boj, Canada, Canada News, Carry Trade, Currency, Decade, Deflation, Easy Money, Financial Markets, Good Chance, Interest Rate Policy, Japanese Economy, Japanese Yen, Nine Months, Rallies, Term Appointment, Trades, Transition Period, Yen, Zero Interest
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Adam Hewison: Near-Term Technical Outlook - Dow, Nasdaq, Dollar, Gold, Oil

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

I often refer to the technical analysis of Adam Hewison (INO.com) to provide insight into the most likely near-term movements of financial markets. He has just produced five short presentations on various markets.

Dow Jones Industrial Index: Is the market at a crossroad? Click here.

Nasdaq Composite Index: Waning strength? Click here.

US dollar: Has the greenback bottomed out? Click here.

Gold bullion: Choppy trading in thin “silly season” markets? Click here.

Crude oil: Lower levels ahead? Click here.

Tags: Advertisement, Ahead, Crude Oil, Dollar Gold, Dow Index, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Financial Markets, Gold, Gold Bullion, Gold Trading, Greenback, Ino, Insight, Nasdaq Composite Index, Nasdaq Index, oil, Silly Season, Technical Outlook
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Face to Face with Jim Chanos

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

James Chanos, legendary hedge fund manager and president of Kynikos Associates, makes a special appearance on CNBC to discuss financial markets and share his recommendations.

Source: CNBC, December 15, 2009.

Tags: Appearance, Cnbc, Face To Face, Financial Markets, Hedge Fund Manager, Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates
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James Grant: WealthTrack Transcript

Monday, November 9th, 2009

Last week, James Grant appeared on Connie Mack’s WealthTrack for an in-depth interview. Grant is bullish about the recovery, saying the recovery is going to be surprisingly strong. Grant is must-see, must read material. If you missed the video, you may watch it here.

CM:  … He is James Grant, editor of the biweekly newsletter Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, a self-described independent, value-oriented and contrary-minded journal of the financial markets. A financial thought leader, Jim is one of Wall Street’s most astute, erudite and articulate observers. He is also the author of six books including a wonderful biography of the nation’s second president titled John Adams: Party of One and his most recent Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond. In an interview conducted before this week’s third quarter GDP report showing the economy expanding at a well above consensus pace of 3.5%, I asked Jim why he, a notorious glass half empty kind of guy has recently gone from economic bear to bull.

How zippy is the recovery?

JAMES GRANT: Pretty darn zippy. The finest expression was that of a long deceased economist named Pigou, a Brit actually, sounds French, who said that the error of optimism dies in the crisis; it is followed by the era of pessimism, which is born not an the infant but a giant. Which is a wonderful expression of the human tendency to overdo it. So all of the new era cats find out that they didn’t get the memo. They were all wrong. There was in fact a debt problem. It burst in their faces. What they do now? They are disconsolate, they inconsolable.

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Nothing like this has been seen in the history of the world, the patient will not live sadly. So it’s like that. And especially they overdo it on the downside and I think that goes for our esteemed government, especially the Fed, which not only didn’t see it coming but also didn’t comprehend it once it splattered all over its face like a cream pie.

CM: How robust do you think the recovery will be?

JAMES GRANT: I think it’s going to surprise to the upside and so old am I, Consuelo, I’m not going to give a number, nor am I going to give a date, but I think that it’s going to be surprisingly strong. The consensus is for next year to generate growth in our gross domestic product of about 2.5% after adjustment for price fluctuations. I expect it will be much better than that. Certainly for a couple of quarters which I think will jar people- they’ll say, wait, that was an unauthorized, who said they could do that? And you can see some of this in the making. The earnings call recently from Caterpillar featured the information that the dealers had run down their stocks to half of the usual and if they were only to restock to the little bit of the normal, there would be a big sales boom and CAT was kind of venturing that not implausible outcome next year would be growth of more than 10%. And I could see that throughout the economy, and people are expecting much, much less.

I think that the wisest course for investors is to heed the advice from the scripture of value investing, the Graham and Dodd idea that we can not know the future, therefore seek a margin of safety in investments in the present. That is to say, we can’t know really what’s going to happen in 2010, let alone 2017, but we can observe two things. We can observe the opportunities that are in front of us, in the securities as they are now priced, and two, importantly, they didn’t say this but I will, you can observe how the world is positioning itself for an expected outcome.

Read the whole transcript here, and here.

Tags: Biweekly Newsletter, Connie Mack, Cream Pie, Debt Problem, Depth Interview, Downside, Financial Markets, Gdp Report, History Of The World, Human Tendency, Independent Value, Interest Rate Observer, James Grant, John Adams, New Era, Pessimism, Quarter Gdp, Six Books, Thought Leader, Wealthtrack
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Stocks and risky assets stumble

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

I concluded a post on stock markets over the weekend saying: “After equities’ seven-month climb, stock markets certainly look vulnerable for a decline. Two downside reversal days - on Wednesday and Friday - would seem to indicate that stocks could commence a pullback to work off the overbought condition, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves.”

Global stock markets, as well as other risky assets, closed sharply lower over the past few days as concerns mounted over the sustainability of the global economic recovery and the outlook for central bank policy.

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the charts below, with the top one showing the period from the March 9 stock market lows until October 19 peak and the second one the subsequent period. The numbers indicate an all-change pattern in the performances as risk aversion re-entered financial markets and government bonds and the US dollar regained some favor.

Source: StockCharts.com

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of the movements of major global stock markets since the March 19 peak, as well as various other measurement periods, is given in the table below.

The MSCI World Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index have declined by 5.3% and 6.2% respectively since the highs of October 19, with markets like Ireland (‑13.2%), Brazil (-10.5%), Austria (-10.8%) and Belgium (-9.0%) falling by significantly more. Also, higher risk indices such as small caps have borne the brunt of the selling, with the Russell 2000 Index down by 9.0%. This is a pattern that one would expect as investors shift the emphasis to higher quality.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

The major moving-average levels for the benchmark US indices, the BRIC countries and South Africa (where I am based) are given in the table below. A number of indices, including the S&P 500 Index, have fallen below their 50-day moving averages over the past few days, but all the indices are still holding above their respective 200-day moving averages. The 50-day lines are also above the 200-day lines in all instances.

The October lows are also given in the table as a break below these levels would indicate a reversal of the uptrend since March, i.e. reversing the progression of higher reaction lows.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

Over the past few days a number of commentators have made pronouncements about the extent of a possible decline. For example, Jeremy Grantham (GMO) expects the S&P 500 to drop by 15% to 25%, David Rosenberg (Gluskin Sheff & Associates) sees markets falling by 20% and Doug Kass is looking at -5% to -12%.

This brings me to the topic of valuations. Based on operating earnings (i.e. stripping out everything that is bad), the historical price/earnings (PE) multiple of the S&P 500 is 27.0; using “as reported” (GAAP) earnings the figure shoots up to a giddy 95.7! Getting past the loss-making fourth quarter of 2008 and calculating prospective multiples through December 31, 2009 reduce the valuations to 19.0 and 24.4 respectively. Looking further out to the end of 2010, the prospective PEs are 14.1 and 22.9 respectively - still hardly the type of valuations that will inspire one to be a buyer across the board. (The earnings estimates are courtesy of Standard & Poor’s.)

Another way of looking at valuation levels, and cutting through the uncertainty of having to forecast earnings, is by means of Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), effectively muting the impact of the business cycle by averaging ten years of earnings. Using rolling ten-year reported earnings, my research (based on Shiller’s methodology, but including some refinements) shows that the “normalized” price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 18.7. This compares with a long-term average of just more than 16.3 and implies an overvaluation of 15%. Considering a geometric rather than an arithmetic average of earnings, the overvaluation increases to 25%. The graphs below show data since 1950, but the actual calculations date back to 1871

Meanwhile, David Rosenberg highlights that this is not the onset of a sustainable secular bull market as we had coming off the fundamental lows of prior bear phases, such as August 1982, when:

• Dividend yields were 6%, not sub-2%.

• Price-to-earnings multiples were 8x, not 27x.

• The market traded at book value, not more than twice book.

• Inflation and bond yields were in double digits and headed down in the future, not near-zero and only headed higher.

• The stock market competed with 18% cash rates, not zero, and as such had a much higher hurdle to clear.

• Sentiment was universally bearish; hardly the case today.

• Global trade flows were in the process of accelerating as barriers were taken down; today, we are seeing trade flows recede as frictions, disputes and tariffs become the order of the day.

• A Reagan-led movement was afoot to reduce the role of government with attendant productivity gains in the future, as opposed to the infiltration by the public sector into the capital markets, union sector, economy and of course, the realm of CEO compensation.

Back to charting, Adam Hewison (INO.com) also sounded a cautious note on the outlook for the S&P 500 as explained in one of his popular technical analysis presentations. Click here to access the presentation.

I conclude with a comment from David Fuller (Fullermoney) who said: “At this stage of the bull cycle, I think a correction of approximately 10-15% for developed country stock markets and somewhat more for emerging markets would be good news for investors with cash to invest. Such a mean reversion towards rising 200-day moving averages would blow the recent froth off valuations and stem talk of an early change in monetary policy.”

I will bide my time while the fundamentals play catch-up. Meanwhile, caution remains the operative word.

Tags: Asset Classes, BRIC, Bric Countries, Brunt, Downside, Economic Recovery, Emerging Markets, Financial Markets, Global Stock Markets, Government Bonds, Lows, Moving Averages, Msci Emerging Markets, Msci Emerging Markets Index, Msci World Index, October 19, Pullback, Risk Aversion, Risky Assets, Russell 2000 Index, Small Caps, Stock Market
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Pettis on China

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management and author of the China Financial Markets blog, has just been interviewed by the Geoff Dyer, FT’s Beijing Bureau Chief on a number of China-related issues. The three-part interview is not only topical, but also excellent viewing material.

Part 1:

Pettis discusses where China may diversify its foreign exchange reserves and whether the renminbi will become the global reserve currency.

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Part 2:

Pettis discusses the lessons other countries can learn from China’s growth model and its handling of the financial crisis.

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Part 3:

Pettis discusses the pros and cons of the “Asian development model” and the future of US-China trade relations.

Click here or on the image below to view the video.

Source: Geoff Dyer, Financial Times, September 21, 2009.

Tags: Asian Development, Beijing, Bureau Chief, China Trade Relations, Development Model, Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Financial Times, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Geoff Dyer, Growth Model, Guanghua, Michael Pettis, Peking University, Pros And Cons, Renminbi, Reserve Currency, School Of Management, Video Source
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