Posts Tagged ‘Commodities’

Adam Hewison: A Sneak Peek S&P 500, Dollar, Gold, and Crude Oil

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010


Adam Hewison is back with four new videos, sharing his outlook for the S&P500, the dollar, gold, and crude oil in the near term. Even if you’re not a trader, Hewison’s seasoned way of explaining ideas is very well informed and useful, and his videos are worth watching, and keeping tabs on.

Title : A Sneak Peek At The S&P 500

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

mc3-15-10-1

“While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today’s short video I show you some of the elements that I think should be cause for concern.”

Advertisement, story continues below


Title: Is The US Dollar Reversing Again?

“It’s been a while since we did a video on the euro/dollar relationship. This relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today’s short video I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.”

Last week, Jim Rogers discussed his long position in the euro. The reversal of the dollar, may also be a sign that ‘risk’ is back on, though I suspect that will have more to do with the USDJPY cross. For the time being, however, the dollar looks set to weaken against the yen too.

mc3-15-10-2

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

Title: A Sneak Peek At Gold

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

mc3-15-10-3

“Last week we gave you a Trade Triangle alert to exit the gold market on the long side. Since that alert was issued gold has dropped significantly.”

Hewison points to a very specific key level of $1091.19. If gold breaches that level, Hewison says it will test around 1060, a he believes that gold will be range-bound for the next while.

Title: A Quick Peek at Crude Oil

mc3-15-10-4

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


Energy and Natural Resources Market Highlights (3/15/2010)

Monday, March 15th, 2010


Energy and Natural Resources Market

Historical Industry Consolidation Activity 1997-2009

The source of this graph is IHS Herold. The securities identified in the graph were selected for inclusion by IHS Herold and may or may not be held by portfolios managed by U.S. Global Investors, Inc., whose holdings may change daily.

Strengths

  • Chinese crude oil import surged in the first two months of the year up 45 percent year over year. The apparent demand growth is up 25 percent over the same period.
  • Chinese floor space under construction rose 29.3 percent year over year in January and February (combined).
  • German crude steel production increased 34 percent year over year to 3.4 million metric tons in February 2010, according to WV Stahl. This marks an acceleration on the rate of increase recorded in January, when crude steel production rose by 28 percent year over year.
  • Crude steel production in China, the largest maker, rose 22.5 percent to 50.36 million metric tons, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
  • Indian coal imports climbed 20 percent year over year in February. It received 6.1 million metric tons of the fuel from suppliers in Australia, Indonesia and South Africa. India plans to almost double electricity generation capacity by 2012 and by then the shortage of coal is expected to exceed 200 million metric tons.
  • In January 2010, U.S. coal exports were up 17.5 percent year over year to 5.8 million tons, driven by a 62.9 percent year-over-year increase in metallurgical coal exports, the highest level since September 2008.
  • Copper imports by China, the world’s largest consumer, increased 10 percent in February from the previous month on sustained demand.


Advertisement




Weaknesses

  • Italian oil and gas group Eni SpA cut its production growth target on Friday and said investors would have to wait until 2011 to see any growth in output or dividends. Eni, the world’s seventh-biggest listed oil company, said production is expected to grow more than 2.5 percent per year on average through 2013—this estimate was down from 3.5 percent per year in its previous plan.

Opportunities

  • ExxonMobil, the largest U.S. oil company by market value, said at its annual analyst meeting in New York that it expects to boost its capital spending 3.3 percent to $28 billion in 2010 and that it would spend $25 to $30 billion per year through 2014. The bulk of the company’s capital budget would go toward developing dozens of major projects around the world.
  • Quadra Mining Ltd. gained 10 percent this week after State Grid Corp. of China agreed to buy 9.9 percent of the company for $148 million to secure a share of the copper from Quadra’s Chilean projects. Beijing-based State Grid is the larger of China’s two grid operators.
  • BP on Thursday confirmed it would enter the deep waters off the coast of Brazil, one of the world’s most promising areas for oil exploration, with a $7 billion deal to buy international oil and gas assets from Devon Energy.
  • The active land-drilling rig count is on the rise, but North Dakota has been one of the fastest growing in the Lower 48 since the bottom last year, more than doubling its rig count since mid-2009. Driving the North Dakota rig count higher has been a sharp rebound in activity in the Bakken Shale, considered one of the largest oil formations in the U.S.

Threats

  • China’s inflation reached a 16-month high, industrial output climbed and new loans exceeded forecasts, adding to the case for the government to pare back stimulus measures. Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in February from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said, compared with the 2.5 percent median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Seasonal factors stemming from a weeklong holiday may have boosted prices. Production rose 20.7 percent in the first two months of 2010, the most in more than five years.
  • A glut of unconventional natural gas supplies from U.S. shale deposits has fundamentally recast the long-term prospects for liquefied natural gas imports that were once considered the linchpin of the nation’s energy security, industry executives said at the Ceraweek energy conference in Houston.
  • China is idling up to 40 percent of its wind-turbine factories following a surge in investment driven by the government’s renewable energy goals, the vice president of Shanghai Electric Group Corp. said this week.
by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets, Oil and Gas | No Comments »


Exclusive: Jim Rogers is Long the Euro

Wednesday, March 10th, 2010


This article is a guest contribution by Damien Hoffman, WallStreetCheatSheet.com.

Jim Rogers, Rogers InvestmentsJim Rogers is one of the best global investors of all-time. Last time we chatted a couple months ago he was sleeping soundly with his investments in commodities. Before Bloomberg interviewed Jim this morning, I caught up with him last week to get some high level perspective on the current issues unfolding in the European Union …

Damien Hoffman: Jim, Do you think the EU will survive economically and/or politically through this entire debacle?

Jim: Well I’m long the Euro because I expect them to come through this one okay. Either Greece is going to be papered over and they’ll give a blast to the Euro, or they’re going to let Greece go bankrupt. In my view, this is what they should do because then people would say, “Wow. They’re serious about sound economies in Europe.” That would make the Euro very strong. Then people would know they are not just going to print money or paper over failure.

Either way, I think there’s probably a rally coming. There’s a huge short position in the Euro and whenever there’s been a huge short position in anything, it’s sometimes profitable to go to the other side. So, I am long the Euro because I think there are too many pessimists.

Maybe Greece will go bankrupt and the Euro will collapse before people realize, “That’s good … that’s not bad.” Sometimes it takes a lot for perception to become reality or reality become perception.

Damien: What other countries are you monitoring to make sure the situation isn’t going to spread or get out of control?

Jim: I’m trying to watch the whole world. We cannot be very successful investors if we don’t know what’s going on everywhere. All of a sudden you’ll something like Iceland will show up and you’ll get killed because you didn’t know that Iceland even existed. Usually these things come out of the blue from some place we’re not thinking of.

Damien: Do you think Greece will be the first to tumble?

Jim: I would suspect that the U.K. is more likely to suffer before Greece, but who knows. Maybe it’s time for all of them to collapse and come down together.


Advertisement

Damien: Speaking of collapsing together, do you think the creditor-consumer model — as used by the Chinese with the US and the Germans with the Greeks — has been proven unstable and countries should be moving more passionately towards developing organic manufacturing and consumption economies at home?

Jim: The idea of economies built on consumerism has been discredited many times. The last ten or twenty years people have been shouting, “Oh gosh! Thank goodness for the American consumer.” However, no economy has ever been built on consumption for the long term.

The only way you build an economy is through savings and investments. Look at Dubai. The basic economic model in Dubai was to build an economy based on real estate speculation. That cannot work. You’ve got to have savings, investing, and productive capacity.

It’s all wonderful if we can go to the disco every Saturday night or go drinking by paying our bills with transfer payments. But that doesn’t do anything for long term productivity or competitiveness. Also, guys who build tanks have fun building the tank, but that tank then goes out in the sun or rain to rust. It doesn’t do anything for future productivity. The only way to build an economy long term is to save and invest while building infrastructure and productivity. Nothing else has ever worked.

Damien: Which countries are doing things correctly?

Jim: There are some doing better than others. The largest creditor nations in the world now are China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. That’s where the assets are. There are hundreds of billions of dollars in these countries because they’ve been doing something right.

You know who the largest debtor nations in the world are? I assure you they’re not in Asia. They’re in the West.

The future has always belonged to the people who’ve got the assets — the people who’ve built up savings and investing. Throughout history, we have never heard people say, “Gosh. Look over there at all those debtors. Why don’t we go over there and join those debtors?”

Instead, throughout history people have said, “Look over there where all the assets are.” People have always said they want to go where the assets are, not where the debts are. That’s what happened in America etc., and that’s what’s going to happen in the future as well.

Damien: Jim, thank you very much for updating us on your view.

Jim: You’re welcome.

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Bonds, Markets | No Comments »


Confessions of a Bull.

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010


This article is a guest contribution from John Thomas, madhedgefundtrader.biz, via ZeroHedge.com

Confessions of a Bull. Barton Biggs, founder of mega hedge fund Traxis Partners, spent an hour outlining his current investment strategy with me. Barton is a man of strong opinions, backed with intensive research, which he communicates with his characteristic gravel voice. I spent the better part of the eighties debating every pebble of the investment landscape with Barton. As I recall, “what to do about Japan?” was the topic of the day, and I was bullish.

Today, Barton can say with “real certainty” that large cap multinational equities are the cheapest they have been in 30 years using sophisticated models that analyze price/sales, price/free cash flow, price/earnings, and a whole host of other metrics. Looking just at price/book ratios, these stocks have been this cheap only three times in the last 120 years.

Big cap technology stocks, like Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO), and Oracle (ORCL) are at the top of his list. Other multinationals with plenty of emerging market exposure are attractive, such as Caterpillar (CAT). The easy way in here is to simply buy the S&P 100 ETF (OEF). The market is now at a 15-16 multiple, discounting S&P 500 earnings for 2010 at $75/share. A stronger than expected economy will take that figure as high as $90/share, which the market is not expecting at all.

Microsoft Corpora - MSFT 29.61    chart-0.02
Intel Corporation - INTC 22.20    chart-0.04
Cisco Systems, In - CSCO 26.34    chart+0.08
Oracle Corporatio - ORCL 25.38    chart-0.09
Caterpillar, Inc. - CAT 59.77    chart-0.45
iShares S&P 100 - OEF 53.61    chart+0.03

2010-03-18 16:00


Advertisement

The grizzled old Wall Street Veteran sees the US as half way through an economic recovery, and the main benchmark indexes could surprise to the upside, as they have such heavy big cap weightings. He would avoid domestic companies, such as those in real estate, as the environment for stocks generally is poor. He foresees a “new normal” of a lot of volatility in stocks for the next 4-5 years. Longer term he sees US GDP growth downshifting from the heady 3.8% annual growth rate of the last decade to only 2.5 % in this one. But big cap multinationals should be able to bring in a reliable 5%-6% annual return on top of inflation.

Looking at the world as a whole, Barton thinks Asia is the place to be. A mammoth bubble may be developing in China (FXI), but it is at least 3-5 years off, and there will be plenty of money to be made until then. India (PIN) is another big pick because it is ten years behind China, and has yet to experience its big growth spurt. South Korea (EWY), Thailand (THD), Taiwan (EWT), H-shares in Hong Kong (EWH), and Turkey (TUR) are also lining up in Barton’s sites. Looking at a 1%-1.5% growth rate, things look grim for Europe, with the possible exceptions of Poland (PLND) and Russia (RSX). Traxis is short Brazil (EWZ), because it has already had a great run, and because the country still faces some severe social problems.

IShares Trust ISh - FXI 41.42    chart-0.20
BMO CHINA EQUITY - ZCH.TO 14.68    chart-0.04
ISHARES CHINA IND - XCH.TO 20.30    chart+0.02
TAO.TO - TAO.TO 0.00    chart+0.00
PowerShares Excha - PIN 22.32    chart-0.07
ISHARES S&P CNX N - XID.TO 20.59    chart-0.04
BMO INDIA EQUITY - ZID.TO 14.48    chart-0.01
iShares Trust (Ba - EWY 49.09    chart-0.34
iShares Trust iSh - THD 45.98    chart-0.44
iShares Trust (Ba - EWT 12.51    chart-0.03
iShares Trust (Ba - EWH 16.28    chart-0.07
iShares Trust iSh - TUR 53.77    chart-1.38
Market Vectors Po - PLND 25.35    chart-0.39
Market Vectors Ru - RSX 33.39    chart-0.47
iShares Trust (Ba - EWZ 72.44    chart-1.13

2010-03-18 16:00

Commodities had their run last year, and won’t do much from here, but they aren’t going to crash either. He sees oil (USO) grinding up because the cost of new sources is becoming astronomically high. Barton avoids gold because it has no yield or PE, and would rather not be associated with the crazies that inhabit that space. Bonds (TBF) will be deflation driven for the next year, but are definitely not for your “Rip Van Winkle” investor, as they represent poor value for money. Real estate is dead money. To hear my interview with Barton at length on Hedge Fund Radio, please click at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.biz/Barton_Biggs.html

For more iconoclastic and out of consensus analysis, you can always visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com , where the conventional wisdom is mercilessly flailed and tortured daily.

Source: Zerohedge.com, March 9, 2010.

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Emerging Markets, India, Markets | No Comments »


Baltic Dry Index Leads CRB Commodity Index?

Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010


Interesting parallels between the cost of shipping dry goods, and the prices of those goods themselves. The caveat is the past 2 years have been  somewhat aberrational, and we would need to see much longer history:

Baltic Dry Freight Index vs. CRB Index (weekly basis)

Courtesy: Barry Ritholtz

Hat tip Bill King

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


Bespoke’s Commodity Snapshot: Year-to-Date Change

Monday, March 1st, 2010


Below we highlight the year-to-date change for ten key commodities.  As shown, orange juice has gotten off to a nice start (+13.15%), while natural gas has once again resumed its seemingly perpetual decline (-13.75%).  Platinum is the second best performing commodity shown with a gain of 5.34%, followed by gold at +1.59%, and oil at +0.34%.  While gold and platinum are up in 2010, silver is down 2.69%.

Below we provide our trading range charts for the ten commodities highlighted above.  For each chart, the green area represents between 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity’s 50-day moving average.  As shown, oil has been trading sideways between about $85 and $70 for a few months now, and it is currently closer to overbought levels than oversold levels.  Natural Gas is once again in extreme oversold territory, and the same goes for coffee.  After reaching oversold territory, gold, silver, copper, wheat, and corn have all seen nice bounces.  Platinum remains in a nice uptrend.  Along with the the recent outperformance of stocks like Ford (F), Sirius XM (SIRI), and Johnson Controls (JCI), is the solid performance of platinum (used in catalytic converters) another sign of an auto recovery?

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


Energy and Natural Resources Market Highlights (February 28, 2010)

Sunday, February 28th, 2010


Energy and Natural Resources Market

China Vehicle Sales

Strengths

  • The Baker Hughes weekly rig count climbed by 28 rigs in the United States to a 52-week high of 1,373 drilling rigs.
  • U.S. crude steel output totalled 1.66 million short tons last week, up 0.9 percent, with mills operating at an average capability utilization rate of 68.6 percent. This was the highest weekly total since late-October 2008.
  • Global steel production increased by 2.1 percent on a sequential basis to 109.2 million metric tons for the month of January or the equivalent of 1.286 billion metric tons annualized. This is compared with 107.0 million metric tons during the month of December or 1.259 billion metric tons on an annualized basis.

Weaknesses

  • A key leading indicator of non-residential construction in the domestic market, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) Billings Index declined to a reading of 42.5 for January from 45.4 in December.

Opportunities

  • Bloomberg news reported Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the country will spend about $1.1 billion on expanding electricity capacity in the year ending March 2011. It also plans to introduce a coal regulatory authority. Over 75 percent of the country’s electricity is powered by coal.
  • China Industry news reported that China will likely add another 85 gigawatts of installed power generation this year to bring the country’s total to about 950 gigawatts by year-end.

Threats

  • South African state-owned power generator Eskom has been granted permission to annually raise electricity prices by 25 percent over a three-year period, following protracted negotiations.
by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


WSJ: India Joins China in Global Hunt for Commodities

Thursday, February 25th, 2010


This article is a guest contribution by TraderMark, of Fund My Mutual Fund Blog.

A few weeks ago we noted the world’s largest coal producer, Coal India, was on the hunt for global assets to expand their reach.  [Feb 12, 2010: WSJ - World's Largest Coal Producer Has $6 Billion in the Bank and is on the Prowl for Assets]  It appears this is now part of a broader national strategy mimicking what China has been doing the past half decade+.

If you have any Malthusian bones in your body,  [Mar 24, 2008: WSJ - New Limits to Growth Revive Malthusian Fears] [Jun 20, 2008: World Population to Hit 7 Billion by 2012] you have to wonder as certain countries waste all their national treasure on bailing out banks, financing the lifestyles of those who refuse to save for themselves, and funding pet projects of their politicians -  while others are attempting to snatch up as many long lived assets across the globe, what the long term implications will be.  This is more or less parallel to a company who lives for today - happy to kick the can down the road -  rather than spends heavily on R&D to prosper for tomorrow. Of course any such national directives would be considered “socialistic” in certain countries, hence anathema to even consider as national policy.   Oh well, much better to send countless paper monies out into the atmosphere to help prop up home prices and capital market values from going where they belong - a much sounder national directive.

Via WSJ:

  • India wants to join the club of global energy giants.  Some of the country’s largest private and state-run firms are in hot pursuit of oil and gas assets overseas as they seek to take advantage of depressed asset prices during the downturn and break free of burdensome regulations at home.
  • In the latest move, oil-to-textiles conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd., run by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, raised its bid over the weekend for LyondellBasell Industries, a bankrupt petrochemical maker and oil refiner. The new bid values the Netherlands-based firm at $14.5 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter.  A deal with Lyondell would significantly advance the ambitions of Reliance’s Mr. Ambani to build a global energy conglomerate. It would create a behemoth with $80 billion in combined revenues and interests in oil-and-gas exploration, refining and petrochemicals used for food packaging to textiles. (Reliance is akin to a combination of General Electric and Exxon Mobil in the States - a powerhouse in India with hands in countless industries)
  • Reliance, India’s largest private company by market value, already operates the largest oil refining complex in the world, a site in the western state of Gujarat that can process 1.24 million barrels of crude a day. The facility is designed to handle the kind of ultra-heavy crude that could be extracted from Value Creation’s oil sands.
  • Reliance also is scouting other foreign targets, including Canada’s Value Creation Inc., which has large oil-sands deposits in Alberta, people familiar with the company’s thinking said. (China has also been in Canada purchasing oil sand deposits) Smaller rival Essar Group is stepping up its own bargain hunting abroad, with an eye on assets that Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other oil majors are unloading.
  • In recent months, Reliance and Essar, both based in Mumbai, have hired top executives from global oil majors to aid their international expansion efforts.
  • Meanwhile, India’s flagship state-run oil company, Oil & Natural Gas Corp., said recently it may spend as much as $30 billion over the next decade on an international acquisition binge.
  • Indian companies are scouring the globe to secure crude resources and reduce their dependence on imported oil. India imports 70% of its oil, with a price tag of more than $90 billion annually. The companies are also looking to expand their global footprint with refineries and other assets in far-away markets. And they want relief from the regulatory headaches of their home turf, where government influence in exploration and pricing of natural resources has slowed expansion.
  • India is likely to face competition as it shops for oil and gas, especially from Chinese firms. Last summer, Sinopec Group, a large Chinese oil company, paid $7.2 billion for Addax Petroleum, a Geneva-based company that has oil and gas assets in the Middle East and Africa.  “We see the international players being more often the buyers of these types of assets now, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue,” said Jon McCarter, oil-and-gas transactions leader for the Americas at Ernst & Young.
  • Cross-border acquisitions by Indian companies fell 37% last year to $11.4 billion, according to Dealogic. But activity is picking up as Indian companies rev up for big-ticket deals in sectors such as energy, telecommunications and media.
  • The country’s largest cellphone company, Bharti Airtel Ltd., offered $10.7 billion last week for most of the Africa assets of Kuwaiti operator Mobile Telecommunications Co., known as Zain.  Essar Group, a conglomerate with $15 billion in revenue and interests in steel, oil and telecom, controls oil exploration blocks in places including Nigeria, Madagascar, Myanmar and Vietnam.  Now the company has emerged as an eager buyer for European and U.S. oil companies that are struggling with extra refinery capacity due to slumping demand for fuels.

You can almost feel the sands shifting under our feet, month by month - year by year.

Source: TraderMark, fundmymutualfund.com

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Emerging Markets, India, Markets | No Comments »


Carry Trade Withdrawal Gives China Safe Opportunity to ‘Talk’ Tightening

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010


Chinese stocks, commodities, and global markets, for that matter, are not correcting due to the anticipation of reduced demand from China, as a result of its squawking about tightening. In fact, last year’s profitable trades are correcting because the U.S. dollar is climbing against the falling euro, and adding to that climb is short covering of the dollar as its carry trades of the last year are unwound.

With or without China’s ‘talk’ of tightening – i.e. reining in credit, suspending new loans, raising the value of the yuan, raising its interest rates, and past hikes in its Required Reserve Ratio – China’s stock markets would have corrected simply because carry trades tied to its market and commodities are being sold off.

What better opportunity, then, is there, than a technical global correction, to talk about the very thing, tightening, that is, which would bring about a correction in its own markets?

Read the whole article here.

Pierre Daillie (AdvisorAnalyst.com), GlobeAdvisor.com, February 22, 2010.
http://www.globeadvisor.com/advisoranalyst/aa20100222.html

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


Energy and Natural Resources Market Highlights (week ending 2/15/2010)

Monday, February 15th, 2010


Energy and Natural Resources Market

Commodity Index Tracker

Inflows into commodity index tracking funds were strong in January after some slippage in December. This suggests that appetite for commodities exposure did not evaporate in January despite volatile markets.

Strengths

  • In the U.S., domestic steel capacity utilization increased to 67.3 percent for the week ending February 6, from 66.9 percent in the prior week and production increased 63 bps to 1.6 million net tons.
  • In its January market report, the International Energy Agency increased its estimate for world crude oil demand in 2010 by 170,000 barrels a day to 86.5 million barrels a day. This implies a gain of 1.6 million barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, from 2009 levels, and is driven entirely by emerging and developing economies.
  • China’s coal imports more than tripled in 2009 to 130 million tonnes from a year earlier.
  • Chinese auto sales were more than double last year’s levels, with total sales surging to a monthly record of 1.66m units in January.
  • Iron ore shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland, the world’s largest bulk exporting port, rose to 15 million metric tons in January from 14.9 million tons in December.
  • China’s electricity demand in January was 40.1 percent higher year-over-year and up 2.7 percent from December, according to the National Energy Administration.

Weaknesses

  • China’s imports of iron ore fell 25 percent in January to the second lowest in a year on record prices.

Opportunities

  • The European Union appears to have reached a tentative agreement to aid Greece with its debt overhang. The announcement of this tentative agreement appears to be stabilizing the Euro against the U.S. dollar.
  • Vale SA, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, said it will “struggle” to meet demand for the steelmaking raw material this year as China’s economy expands.
  • Anglo American Plc expects coking coal contract prices to rise after weeks of heavy rain in Queensland state cut output by as much as 10 million metric tons, the Australian newspaper reported.
  • The China Electricity Council (CEC) said that it expects power generation and consumption will remain at a very high level in the first half of 2010 and it is difficult to change the tight coal supply situation in the short term. China’s coal for power generation was 1.4 billion tons in 2009. According to market observers if the electricity consumption rose by 9 percent, the coal consumption would reach around 1.66bln tons, up 6 percent over 2009.
  • Korean steelmaker Posco said that, considering the economic recovery, it may increase throughput by 22 percent this year and stainless steel production may rise to 1.80 million tonnes from 1.47 million tonnes last year.

Threats

  • OPEC compliance with oil production quotas slipped to 53 percent in January, down from 56 percent in December, led by Angola and Venezuela.
  • The Central Bank of China raised the bank reserve requirement ratio another 50 basis points this week marking the second increase this year.
by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


Offshore Oil The Warren Buffett Way

Monday, February 15th, 2010


By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions

Commodities, particularly crude, were trending down last week after China’s Central Bank raised bank reserve requirements boosting the US dollar against other major currencies. That marks the second time China has raised its bank reserve requirement in a month.

Ongoing worries about the economy stemming from European debt problems, specifically the lack of a firm Greek bailout plan from European leaders also prompted investors moving out of risky assets. Crude oil fell for the first day in five to below $75 a barrel also partly due to government data showing U.S. inventories rose more than forecast.

Meanwhile U.S. natural gas registered the largest one-day gain last Friday to $5.48 per mmbtu since the beginning of the month on a drop in jobless claims, signaling industrial demand is likely improving, and cold temperatures across the US are boosting residential demand. Industrial Demand accounts for 29% of U.S. consumption.

Oil Services Sector Bottoming Out

While the markets are in a finicky mood from the China and Greek factors, the return of relative stability in oil and natural gas prices has spurred producers to increase their capital budget and restart projects they slowed down or completely deferred a year ago. (Fig. 1)

Absorbing the impact of lower rig counts, weak global demand for fossil fuel and volatile energy prices, the majority of the oil services companies are reporting sharply lower earnings in Q1. However, the rising rig count and producers’ capital budget suggest that oil service markets are probably in the process of bottoming this year, which suggests a good entry point for long-term investors. (Fig. 2)


Oil Majors Go Deepwater & Subsea

Roughly from 2004 to 2008, the onshore, North America in particular, had outshined the offshore in terms of activity growth. But the Great Recession has shifted the tide towards offshore and international. Offshore is one of the few remaining places where the state as well as western oil majors can increase production, while emerging Asian demand is expected to outpace the U.S. and the OECD in coming years.

FBR estimates an increase in deepwater spending of almost triple expected growth in onshore spending will drive offshore spending overall at a rate of around 15% for the next few years. Energy consultants Douglas-Westwood also forecast offshore spending recovering to $439 billion in 2010, up 11% from 2009 with deepwater capital expenditure reaching new highs. (Fig. 3) South America, Mexico, Iraq, Russia, Africa, and the deepwater are the key areas.

Subsea has proven to be considerably more resilient in the downturn, and the secular growth story will continue to improve as the deepwater rig count is expected to increase by 30% in 2012 from 2009 and as projects get more complex and require greater amounts of equipment.

Offshore Infrastructure – The Buffett Way

Warren Buffett made headline last year when he placed the biggest bet of his life with the $34 billion purchase of Burlington North Santa Fe, expecting the infrastructure play will grow as the economy gets back on solid ground.

So, if we apply the same investment strategy as Buffett to the oil services sector, offshore infrastructure will be the logical choice.

Americans vs. Europeans

While oil companies typically fund and own the pipeline, platform, etc, they rely on oil services companies to provide project expertise and resources.

The oil services universe is made up of mainly two camps: Americans and Europeans. American firms such as Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BHI) and Weatherford (WFT) tend to have a stronger focus on drilling and production services mainly due to the existence of a vast American market, and higher margins.

The European firms, on the other hand, have essentially positioned as specialists in offshore drilling, infrastructure engineering and construction related services.

From Europe with Backlog

Therefore, the current offshore and deepwater trend bodes well for the major European service companies such as Saipem SpA and Technip SA (TKP).  Theses two companies are leaders of the European pack dominating in high-tech segments for deepwater activities such as the installation of platforms, the laying of subsea pipelines, the development of subsea fields, etc.,

The oil infrastructure business is generally later cycle and backlog driven, and thus tends to have less volatility in earnings than other energy stocks. That means even if we go into a double dip, these stocks should still be able to generate higher earnings.

Favorable Forex Trend

Dollar appreciation is also a major catalyst. Société Générale estimated that a 10% increase in the dollar translates into an 8% to 10% increase in EBIT for the oil services sector. All oil services companies should benefit but those that combine a sizeable proportion of dollar-based assets with borrowing denominated essentially in euros, for instance, Saipem and Technip (TKP), stand to benefit most.

Furthermore, with euro recently plunging to a near nine-month low amid Greek concerns, the downward momentum is favorable for U.S. investors wishing to add positions in some solid European companies with good long term prospects.

Americans with Niche

All is not lost with the American companies. Large manufacturers of capital equipment such as Cameron (CAM) are poised to benefit as well, since the tender activity for deepwater rigs, subsea equipment, surface, valves and compression will likely accelerate in 2010 with oil companies gaining confidence in the commodity recovery.

Drillers & Seismic – Grinding Ahead

Nevertheless, all services are not created equal. Average day rates for deepwater floating rigs have fallen from up to $550,000 to $350,000. So, the next two years are going to be a grinding period for drillers like  Transocean (RIG) and Diamond Offshore (DO) when they have to roll over old contracts at lower rates.

Meanwhile, seismic companies such as CGG Veritas (CGV) and Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS) are still struggling to find a bottom mainly due to vessel overcapacity on the marine side. The sector is also hammered by clients’ preference to use old data instead of shooting new ones in a bid to cut costs.

So, the downward earnings trajectory could signal a buying and/or shorting opportunity depending on investment time frame and strategy.

Oil or Gas, One Sector Does It All

Energy stocks, including shares of services companies, tend to be higher beta, so the sector still has to balance the downside risk of the global growth environment. But as the world journeys on a recovery path, likely with rising oil and gas demand, there is still a significant multi-year opportunity for earnings growth from the oil macro view. (Fig. 4)

In addition, oil services is one sector that stands to benefit from the expected uptrend of either crude or natural gas, or both. With crude and natural gas prices outlook remain diverged in the medium term, this unique characteristic could be a good hedge in any energy/commodities investment portfolio.

Disclosure: No Positions

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »


The Prevailing Trend, the Dollar, and the Return of Volatility

Friday, February 12th, 2010


What does the fiscal crisis in Greece have to do with the price of commodities? Why would the Chinese step up their rhetoric of ditching reserve holdings in U.S. agencies, like Fannie and Freddie, and mortgage backed securities debt – Whom does it serve?

Why have emerging markets, commodities and commodities stocks, and equity markets in general, gotten a lashing?

Believe it or not, it’s all about achieving global equilibrium, and at the heart of this is the dollar.

Behind all of the market volatility in equities, commodities, and emerging markets in January, and the myriad of causes the financial media chalk up, are the prevailing trend, and the countervailing forces, that revolve around trading in the U.S. dollar.

Read the complete article here.

Source: Pierre Daillie (AdvisorAnalyst.com), GlobeAdvisor.com, February 11, 2010

by-nc-nd

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Posted in Markets | No Comments »