Posts Tagged ‘Cheap Money’
The carry trade is now in trouble…
Wednesday, December 9th, 2009
The following is a guest contribution by Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor, Blackmont Capital
I don’t share the recent stock optimism as the tail is wagging the dog. The higher the stock index goes the greater the number of bulls and the greater the amount of decimated bears. Those burned bears will not be adding to the buy side at lower prices to cover shorts. See chart courtesy Market Harmonics). Good news about this will also turn out to be bad when the party is up.
The party by the way is almost up. The not-so-smart money of 2008 might be getting its mojo back. If the commercials are getting it right in the futures market then they might as well be calling the top of many markets.
One huge problem is that the bulk of the long side is now carried by speculators with cheap money. A simple rule of Wall Street where bulls die from their own weight may apply right here. Its all about mechanics rather than economics and becomes self-reinforcing. That’s been my point throughout 2007. Perhaps an early call but the right one nevertheless. We have come full circle once again. Leverage has been put back on as if nothing ever happened. I have underestimated the great desire of participants for suicidal tendencies. The cracks start to appear in select markets first. We have observed a number of those already. We did fire our first gold warning recently even though we have been long term bulls.
The second warning concerns the Japanese currency. I show a timing model based on expansion/contraction of the Japanese monetary aggregates. The recent stimulus from Tokyo is too small to make a large contribution to things. However it is relevant to us because money is already expanding and just might act to depreciate the yen at a faster rate.
You can see here another version of the same timing model showing the recent bump up in monetary aggregates. I have been a very long-term bull on the yen. If relative money expands in Japan while American money contracts then you have us bullish on the USD to come.
I have studied the behavior of commercials in the futures market for a long time. They usually have a success rate of over 8/10. The year of 2008 was not so gracious to the not looking so smart anymore crowd. The commercials would appear to have gotten their mojo back. They are relatively short in big ways in too many markets. For that reason alone it bears watching as this is a significant development.
The carry trade as a barometer of things to come will show the unwind at the early stage. From my perspective it is here & now that the carry trade ends.
Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor, Blackmont Capital inc
The opinions contained in this report are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Blackmont Capital Inc.. Every effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and contains information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither the author nor BCI makes any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, in respect thereof, or takes any responsibility for any errors or omissions which may be contained herein or accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. BCI is an independently owned subsidiary of CIFinancial. CI Financial is a Canadian owned diversified wealth management firm, publicly traded on the TSX under the symbol CIX. Blackmont Capital Inc. is a member of CIPF and IIROC.
Hat tip: ZeroHedge
Tags: American Money, Blackmont Capital, Canada, Carry Trade, Cheap Money, Contraction, Futures Market, Gold, Great Desire, Investment Advisor, Japanese Currency, Lamoureux, Mojo, Monetary Aggregates, Money Contract, Optimism, Second Warning, Smart Money, Speculators, Stimulus, Stock Index, Suicidal Tendencies, Timing Model, Yen
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Why American Consumers Will Spend Lavishly Again
Monday, November 30th, 2009
Via Harvard Business -An excerpt:
Let me introduce you to Susan Householder.* Here she is, standing in the entrance of her garage in a middle class suburb of Ridgefield, New York. She is surveying a mountain of stuff: bicycles, toboggans, a work bench, exercise equipment, canned goods, Christmas decorations, a picnic hamper, board games, lots of wrapping paper, several boxes of stem ware, and lots and lots of containers, contents unknown. There’s so much stuff here, this ceased to be a garage a long time ago. It’s now a storage locker, Susan’s very own U-Store-It. (Cars are consigned to the drive way.) If we wanted a monument to all the spending Susan did in the 00s, this is it.What created this mountain of stuff? Was it irrational exuberance and cheap money? It was not. This crowded garage springs from cultural motives. These things were not purchased to express vanity or pursue status. They were purchased to help Susan build a life.
Source: Harvard Business
Tags: American Consumers, Bicycles, Board Games, Business Advertisement, Canned Goods, Cheap Money, Christmas Decorations, Christmas Hamper, Class Suburb, Excerpt, Exercise Equipment, Harvard Business, Householder, Irrational Exuberance, Life Source, Middle Class, Motives, Mountain Bicycles, Picnic Games, Picnic Hamper, Storage Locker, Vanity, Work Bench, Wrapping Paper
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Nothing to fear but fears of - Inflation
Friday, September 11th, 2009
James Surowiecki writes in the New Yorker on the subject of inflation, or rather the lack and the fears of it, concluding that we should cross the bridge when we get to it.
The economy is still limping, job losses are still rising, and consumers are still reluctant to open their wallets. So it’s the perfect time to worry about . . . inflation? Apparently so, because, of late, the cries of inflation hawks have grown increasingly loud. Pointing to huge deficit spending, and to the flood of money that the Federal Reserve has sluiced into the economy, they argue that we’re at serious risk of “igniting out-of-control inflation” and bringing about the collapse of the dollar. Unless the Fed starts slowing things down, they say, we’ll face price jumps that qualify as “hyperinflationary” (a word that Senator Charles Grassley, the Iowa Republican, actually used the other week). Most Americans are worrying about keeping their jobs. Now we have to worry about becoming Zimbabwe, too.
…
Of course, you can’t see any of this inflation in the numbers. The Consumer Price Index fell in July, and, over the past year, prices have actually dropped two per cent. And there’s not much sign that inflation is coming down the pike; the price of U.S. inflation-indexed bonds suggests that investors think future inflation will stay low, perhaps around two per cent. So do the remarkably low interest rates on government debt; the U.S. wouldn’t be able to borrow money for ten years at less than four per cent if people thought that double-digit inflation was in the offing.
…
This isn’t to say that cheap money is always good—it has a nasty habit, for one thing, of starting asset bubbles. So, as Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, told Congress in July, once the economy starts growing again the Fed will have to start pulling money back out. But, in any balancing of the current threats to the economy, the danger of stagnation trumps the danger of inflation. Even if we are on the brink of recovery, the last thing we need is for the Fed or the federal government to start embracing a tight-money policy. To do so would risk a reprise of 1937, when, with the economy bouncing back from the depths of the Great Depression, the Fed tightened monetary policy and the government raised taxes, provoking a disastrous downturn that lasted until the Second World War. The Fed does have to make sure that the economy doesn’t go careering off the road. But let’s wait until the car is actually moving forward before we worry about applying the brakes.
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Charles Grassley, Cheap Money, Coming Down The Pike, Consumer Price Index, Control Inflation, Deficit Spending, Fed Chairman, Government Debt, Inflation Indexed Bonds, Iowa Republican, James Surowiecki, Low Interest Rates, Nasty Habit, Nothing To Fear, Perfect Time, Price Jumps, Senator Charles Grassley, Stagnation, Trumps
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‘Encouraged by a wicked wizard, Greenspan, Bernanke toils at his printing press’
Friday, November 28th, 2008
The Guardian has published below, an insight-full essay by Hugh Hendry, CIO, Eclectica Asset Management. Hendry’s brash and eloquent commentary has earned him a reputation which he best personally describes as heresy, as many in the City of London have tried at times to dismiss his bold and controversial views.
Again, Hendry closes in on his decision to be long the long government bonds, as he contends that long term rates will come down as central banks globally, have little choice but to follow the Fed to lower interest rates over the next year or two.
As markets liquidated in the deleveraging fervour that has proliferated this year, investors have piled into short term treasury bills and money market instruments. As sentiment for equity markets and commodities continues to wane, its starting to appear more likely that short term bond money will go in search of yield further along the yield curve, and as it does the rather steep yield curves should flatten.
Here’s another thought. What incentive does the US government have for reviving the stock market? After all, where else are they going to get the money to pay for a trillion-dollar war and a trillion-dollar bailout, but the bond market? It would serve government if an entire segment of investors fled into the longer (duration) end of bond the market for capital safety so as to indemnify those at the printing presses.
The Wizard of Oz must be one of the creepiest stories ever told.
“The past 30 years of economic history may have produced a daunting sequel to the original Wizard of Oz, written by Frank Baum.
By Hugh Hendry
Last Updated: 10:59AM GMT 27 Nov 2008
Follow the yellow brick road to get a picture of where we are
People blame this crisis on cheap money and greedy bankers. They certainly cannot be exempted. But I take a more fatalist point of view. There has to be a reason for humans to die off in their 70s and 80s. I believe it is so that the memory of a generation’s mistakes is erased, allowing future ages to repeat the folly of greed and fear.
Because of this, I spend a lot of time reflecting on social mood and behaviour. Popular fiction is a particular fascination; I believe it provides a mind map of the social conscience. The Wizard of Oz is a personal favourite. I would contend that bullish markets produce feel-good films, like Disney animation; that bear markets produce depictions of horror and foreboding (think Hammer House of Horror in the 1970s and SAW, its modern equivalent); and that social mood is linked to stock market patterns.
The original Frank Baum story was written as a political allegory of America’s entry on to the gold standard in 1879. The strictures of sound money coincided with a vibrant post Civil War economy. The result was deflation: prices fell by 1.7pc pa between 1875 and 1896. The farmer, as depicted by the scarecrow, was held captive by falling agricultural prices and mortgages owed to the big banks, the wicked witch of the east. The spell of tight monetary policy cast a pall over the poor tin woodsman: every time he swung his axe, he chopped off part of his body. It was a depiction of the economy’s shuttered and rusting factories.
The easy-money crowd, Bernanke and Greenspan’s great grandfathers perhaps, argued the responsibility for the economy’s woes lay with an insufficient monetary response. The gold market had a scarcity that choked the US economy into serfdom.
Instead, the populists’ manifesto called for the readmission of more plentiful silver coinage into the system – a point captured by Dorothy’s silver slippers (Hollywood changed them to ruby) as she skipped along the yellow brick road (the gold standard). Print more money and remove us from penury. Consecutive presidential elections were contested on such a return to bimetallism in 1896 and 1900. Surprisingly, the easy-money crowd, proved unsuccessful; they were defeated by powerful bankers such as JP Morgan. However, the story ends with the good witch of the south (the populace) prophesying that Dorothy’s silver slippers (easy-money policy) are so powerful they can fulfil her every wish. This utopia was made possible just 13 years later with the formation of the Federal Reserve. The tin man and the scarecrow would have a more forgiving lender of last resort after all and 71 years later the wizard, called Nixon, went one step further and abolished the need for gold and silver ounces (Oz) when the US reneged on its Bretton Woods commitment to sound money.
Of course, today we could be watching a comparable parable unfold. The past 30 years of economic history may have produced a daunting sequel. I would suggest tomorrow’s fiction will prove much darker, perhaps in the image of Goethe’s Faust.
The story would feature an apprentice printer called Bernanke. Encouraged by a wicked wizard, Greenspan, he toils at his printing press night and day producing reams of paper money. At first his monetary accommodation seems to bring unbridled prosperity. Boom follows boom, as the business cycle is seemingly abolished, house prices grow to the sky and his political stock rises. In time, the scarecrow is bought-off by crop subsidy; the tin man vacations in Vegas, having refinanced his mortgage for the 13th time. And the sorcerer’s apprentice is promoted to top wizard.
However, Greenspan, now in retirement, finally reveals his scheme has brought only “bogus riches”. The printing presses have created a “zero-sum game” where dollars lose their purchasing power against God’s brew of precious metals. The populace begins to save. Spending is reined in. Even the corporate sector suffers. With consumers no longer spending, there are no profits. Shares slump and the fiat kingdom collapses in anarchy.
And that is pretty much where we are today.
I withdrew my hard-earned money from a bank this summer. But it may surprise you to learn that I bought government bonds of long duration. Surely I should have bought gold? Except that I believe the way to make money is to seek opportunities through paradox.
And therein lies our brinkmanship: everyone has skipped our story and read the conclusion. They fear financial anarchy. Gold coins are sold out. Everyone is in. And yet the price of gold has fallen this year. So, for now, I would stick with the bonds. The 18-year British gilt yields 4.8pc but, with the Bank of England likely to follow the Fed and slash rates to 1pc, I believe we could see gilt yields below 3pc. And I promise you that if bond yields broke 3pc there would be a stampede to buy.
At this stage gold might trade close to $500, and those who missed its rally from 2002 would have the solace of schadenfreude when in reality they should be buying the stuff and selling their bonds. What delicious irony: deflationists and inflationists could both claim to be right. But how many will have profited?
Hugh Hendry is the co-founder of Eclectica Asset Management.”
Tags: Agricultural Prices, Bailout, Banks, Bear Market, Bear Markets, Bernanke, Bond Market, Bond Money, Bond Yields, Bonds, Br, BRIC, Central Banks, Cheap Money, City Of London, Collapse, Commodities, Controversial Views, Deflation, Desc, Disney Animation, Dollar, Dollar War, Dow, Eclectica, Eclectica Asset Management, Eco, Economy, Eloquent Commentary, Equity Market, Fed, Federal Reserve, fiat, Frank Baum, Gold, Good Films, Government Bonds, Greed And Fear, Hugh Hendry, Img, inflation, interest rates, Investors, Loc, Market Patterns, Markets, Metals, Monetary Policy, Money, Money Crowd, Money Market Instruments, Mortgage, oil, People, Political Allegory, Post Civil War, precious metals, Printing Presses, Prosperity, Rally, REW, risk, Scarcity, Sentiment, Silver, SMI, Social Conscience, Social Mood, Sound Money, Stock Market, Stuff, Term Bond, Tight Monetary Policy, Tin Woodsman, Treasury Bill, Treasury Bills, Trillion, UK, Us Government, War Economy, Wicked Witch Of The East, Wicked Wizard, Wizard Of Oz, Yellow Brick Road, Yield Curve, Yield Curves
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Yen’s Strength [has been] profoundly negative for global markets
Thursday, March 27th, 2008
March 27, 2008 - Donald Dony, The Technical Speculator, offers the following explanation of how the strengthening of the yen to a twelve year high against the US dollar has had a profoundly negative effect on global markets, in the past and during the most recent 6-7 months. We would also add that while Mr. Dony does a great job of explaining this concept, he also points out in the present tense that as the cheap money is quickly evaporating, so is the global market.
Our sense is that the yen broke through par, a level (usd/yen<100) that required intervention (which came last week), primarily by the BoJ to maintain it at levels that are more supportive of Japan’s economy. For this reason, it may be that if the yen has reached a turning point, that a new round of carry trade in the yen could provide stimulus and/or support to global markets at these levels. Change that to evaporated, past tense.
Global equity traders had, for many years, a ready source of funds at almost no interest charge. Traders have been shorting the Yen and using the funds to purchase stocks, currencies and high-yielding securities around the world. However, as of mid-2007, that “free bank account” is becoming more and more costly. The Yen carry trade is starting to unwind with very negative results for stocks.
But what is the “Yen carry trade”? Simply put, it is borrowing at very low interest rates in Yen and using the loan to buy higher yielding assets elsewhere. During the past 12 years, the trade has become standard business practice for many institutional investors. Perhaps the most popular form of the strategy exploits the yield gap between U.S. and Japanese fixed income securities. Another plus that came with the Yen/U.S. cross was from the dollar’s rise against the yen. Investors make their profit when they reverse the trade and pay back the Yen loan.
But all of this endless liquidity is quickly coming to an end and with bearish consequences to global equity markets.
Chart 1 illustrates the tight connection of the Japanese currency with global stocks. With every major rise of the Yen throughout 2007, there was a mirrored decline in the Dow Jones World Stock Index. Quite simply, the global equity markets began to fall when the tap was turned off to cheap money. Traders are now forced to buy back massive Yen short positions and sell assets to pay for it.
And what is happening to the Yen?
Chart 2 shows the Japaneses currency is breaking through a decade old resistance levels and surging to new highs. And this trend shows no signs of reversing. The upside target is 120.
Bottom line: The bearish impact of the advancing Yen is clearly apparent on global stock markets. World equities appear to have been propped up largely due to the availability of foreign liquidity. As this “cheap money” is quickly evaporating, so is the global bull market.
Donald W. Dony FCSI, MFTA
Tags: Carry Trade, Chart, Cheap Money, Credit Market, Currency, Dollar, Economy, Fixed Income, interest rates, Investment, Japan, liquidity, Markets, risk, Stock Markets, Technical Analysis, US Dollar, usd
Posted in Economy, Markets, US Stocks | 2 Comments »
