Marc Faber: Face-to-Face

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, sits down with Ben McLannahan, Asia Lex Writer of the Financial Times, to discuss a variety of pertinent economic and investment topics. In short, he suggests investors should make 2010 the year of “capital preservation”.

Part 1: Warns of partial US debt default
Faber says irrational monetary policy means there are asset-class bubbles forming somewhere, only we don’t know exactly where yet.

Click here or on the image below the view Part 1 of the interview.

Part 2: Forecasts negative US real interest rates
Faber says stocks won’t reach new highs this year.

Click here to view Part 2 of the interview.

Part 3: On gold and China’s economic slowdown
Faber predicts Asian stocks will underperform this year because of China’s inevitable economic slowdown and suggests accumulating gold and shifting more money to India and Japan.

Click here to view Part 3 of the interview.

Part 4: On the year of “capital preservation”
Faber says global investors should make 2010 the year of “capital preservation”.

Click here to view Part 4 of the interview.

Source:  Ben McLannahan, Financial Times (here, here, here and here), February 23, 2010.

Tags: Asia, Asian Stocks, Boom, Bubbles, Capital Investors, Capital Preservation, China, China Economic, Debt Default, Doom, Economic Slowdown, Face To Face, Financial Times, Global Investors, Gloom Boom And Doom Report, India, interest rates, Interview Source, Japan, Lex, Marc Faber, Monetary Policy, New Highs
Posted in Emerging Markets, India, Markets | No Comments »

Sit Back and Relax - “The US and China, this is going to take awhile”

Thursday, December 10th, 2009

This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News ‘n’ Economics blog.*

Given the symbiotic relationship in the chart above, it’s hard to blame any one individual, group, or even country. But blame we do. Martin Wolf, at the Financial Times, wrote an interesting article about the need for a “co-operative adjustment” of global current account deficits and surpluses. He argues the following:

China’s exchange rate regime and structural policies are, indeed, of concern to the world. So, too, are the policies of other significant powers. What would happen if the deficit countries did slash spending relative to incomes while their trading partners were determined to sustain their own excess of output over incomes and export the difference? Answer: a depression. What would happen if deficit countries sustained domestic demand with massive and open-ended fiscal deficits? Answer: a wave of fiscal crises.

It sounds so imminent: re-balance now, or else. Sure the tides of portfolio flows must change; structural current account imbalances are now proven to cause economic catastrophe, as illustrated by the 2-yr case study of late. But it’s not going to happen over night. It takes a long time for re-balancing of any kind to fully pass through. Just look at Japan in the 1990’s.

Data note: you can download Japan Flow of Funds data here, and US Flow of Funds data here.

The chart above illustrates the debt bubbles in the US financial crisis and in 1990’s Japan. In Japan, the households didn’t accumulate as much debt relative to the non-financial business sector; however, both sectors dropped leverage. And notice, that it took about a decade for households and firms to do so.

What’s overly obvious is that the Chinese will not be bullied into revaluing the yuan just because the US says so. And also evident is that there is a (very lengthy) de-leveraging process underway in key economies. By default, the debt-reducing developed world will force the Chinese to focus policy more inward (domestic demand) and less outward (export demand), as US consumers drop debt levels. But sit back and relax, it’s gonna be a while.

This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News ‘n’ Economics blog.* Rebecca Wilder is an economist in the financial industry. She was previously an assistant professor and holds a doctorate in economics.

Tags: Account Deficits, Bubbles, Business Sector, China, Current Account, Economic Catastrophe, Emerging Markets, Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Business, Financial Crisis, Financial Times, Fiscal Crises, Fiscal Deficits, Households, Incomes, Martin Wolf, Portfolio Flows, Surpluses, Symbiotic Relationship, Tides, Trading Partners, Yuan
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Bill King: Is Gold in a Bubble?

Friday, December 4th, 2009

This post is a guest contribution by Bill King, of The King Report.

A worse-than-expected ADP Employment Change for November (-169k vs. -150k exp) chilled traders’ appetite for stocks. But gold is a different animal, and it’s in a parabolic rise.

Bad news is really good news for gold because it means ‘more juice’.

Several weeks ago, we noted that gold was about 20% above its key 350-day moving average. We opined that gold wasn’t bubbling yet; gold would need to get 40% above the key moving average before it was bubbling. Gold is now (in overnight trading) 34% above its 350-day moving average ($916).

Gold got 40% above its 350-day moving average on May 15, 2006; it fell from 720 to 542 in one month. Gold also got 40% above its key moving average on 3/17/08; it declined from 1032 to 682 by 10/24/08.

Oil got about 60% above its 350-day moving average in 2008…Nasdaq got 75% above in 2000.

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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: After quietly doubling reserves, China is wary of gold ‘bubble’
The Chinese authorities have given the clearest indication to date that they view the surge in gold to an all-time high of $1,217 (£730) an ounce as a speculative frenzy. Hu Xiaolian, the vice-governor of the central bank, said Beijing would not buy gold indiscriminately.

“We must keep in mind the long-term effects when considering what to use as our reserves,” she said. “We must watch out for bubbles forming on certain assets and be careful in those areas.”
News that the rising powers of Asia are shifting a chunk of their fast-growing reserves into gold in a flight from Western paper currencies has emboldened investors to take out large gold bets on the futures markets or through exchange traded funds, leading to the parabolic rise in price over recent weeks.

However, officials in Beijing are aware that China’s…central bank cannot buy much gold without
distorting the price, so they have adopted a de facto policy of buying in a calibrated fashion each time prices fall back to their rising trend line – “buying the dips” in trading parlance. Experts say that China is putting a floor under the gold price but does not chase rallies once they are under way.

Tags: 916 Gold, Ambrose, Bad News, Bill King, Bubbles, China, Chinese Authorities, Chunk, Clearest Indication, Different Animal, Emerging Markets, Employment Change, Evans Pritchard, Exchange Traded Funds, Fashi, Frenzy, Futures Markets, Gold, Moving Average, Nasdaq, oil, Ounce, Paper Currencies, S Central, Vice Governor
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Is the USD Carry Trade for Real?

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Caroline Baum, one of Bloomberg’s most highly respected columnists, questions the veracity of Nouriel Roubini’s claim that the carry trade is inflating assets around the world.

Zero percent interest rates started it. A weak dollar fueled it. Speculators fanned it. And famed forecasters see it everywhere they look. There’s only one problem with the claims that the dollar carry trade - borrowing dollars cheaply to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad - is inflating bubbles across the globe: There is no visible credit expansion, at least in the US, to support them.

Roubini’s bubbles float on flimsy credit source, Bloomberg, December 2, 2009

Tags: Assets, Bloomberg, Bubbles, Caroline Baum, Credit Expansion, Credit Source, Forecasters, Globe, interest rates, Nouriel Roubini, Speculators, Veracity, Weak Dollar, Zero Percent
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Jim Rogers: Gold, Market Bubbles, Equities, and Dr. Doom

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

This article is a guest contribution from Damien Hoffman, of Wall Street Cheat Sheet.

Jim Rogers is one of the most respected investors in the world. I had a chance to chat with him the other morning to get more details about some of his recent comments in the media …

Damien Hoffman: Jim, you were in the media a few times last week and I want to follow up on a few points you made. You said on Bloomberg that Nouriel Roubini did not do his homework regarding the asset bubbles about which he is now warning. Can you explain what homework he did not do?

Jim: All of it. How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high? Same for coffee, sugar, cotton, natural gas, and many more. I have a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs.

A bubble is when assets are screaming to new highs everyday, everyone is talking about them, and everyone owns them. Right now, virtually no one owns commodities. So for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets.

I am flabbergasted at Mr. Roubini’s comment about bubbles because there is not a single market in the world making all-time highs except Gold, US Government Bonds, Cocoa, and the Sri Lankan stock market. That’s hardly reason to call for a bubble. So, I am most perplexed about this alleged bubble which is out there.

If an asset rises 100% in one year, that’s a great year, but not necessarily a bubble. Look at oil. It’s up huge off the bottom but nowhere near it’s old highs. Look at Citigroup. The stock is up 3 or so times off the bottom …

Damien: … and I doubt long term shareholders feel like they are in a bubble.

Jim: Exactly. And since Mr. Roubini thought oil would stay below $40 a barrel for all of 2009, I would love for him to tell me and the rest of the world exactly where are all the oil supplies because the International Energy Agency (IEA) — which has the best global data set on energy supplies — has no idea where is the oil. Mr. Roubini should tell us where this price suppressing oil supply is hidden. All the oil possessing countries in the world have declining reserves. All the oil companies have declining reserves. So Mr. Roubini must know something the rest of us don’t.

Damien: On another note, Gold has been reaching new all-time highs, although not inflation adjusted. You said Gold may reach $2,000 an ounce over the next decade. Can you explain what variables will push Gold to $2,000?

Jim: First, I hope you will keep Mr. Roubini’s statement where he said Gold going to $2,000 an ounce by 2019 is “utter nonsense.” I think you’re going to get a chance to call him before 2019 to ask him what he thinks of Gold at $2,000 and why he thought it was “utter nonsense.”

Regarding variables, it’s very clear there is huge suspicion about paper money around the world. This suspicion is gathering steam. Governments are printing huge amounts of money. This has always led to higher prices. Maybe I am wrong and it’s different this time. But I doubt it.

Additionally, no new large gold mines have been opened in decades. Some of those mines are over 100-years old. They are all depleting. On the other hand, central banks have huge Gold reserves above ground — and they are less interested in selling than in the past.

If you adjust Gold for inflation and go back to it’s former all-time high in 1980, Gold should be over $2,000 an ounce right now if you want to say it’s reaching new inflation adjusted all-time highs. That does not mean Gold has to get back to a true all-time high. Nothing has to. However, I suspect that given all the money printing in the world, we will see much higher prices for hard assets.

Despite Gold’s potential, I think I will make more money in other commodities such as silver, cotton, or coffee — all of which are terribly depressed.

Damien: Speaking of other assets, as an outsider living abroad, what is your opinion on US Equities?

Jim: This is one of the few times in my life I have not had shorts anywhere in the world. I have also not had a lot of longs in the stock market because I’ve chosen longs in commodities and currencies. I have kept away from shorts because there is a gigantic amount of money being printed and it has to go somewhere. I thought some of it would end up in the stock market, and it has.

How much higher can the equity markets go? I don’t know. There are a lot of problems in the economy, but I don’t know when those problems will cause a downdraft in the stock market. All we’ve done is paper over the problem, so I expect we’ll have to deal with those issues in the future. Printing and spending money we don’t have simply prolongs the problems and makes them worse in the long run.

If the world economy improves, commodities will lead the way due to demand and shortages. If the world economy does not get better, commodities are still a great place to be because governments are printing so much money. And, if the world economy doesn’t get better, they will print even more money!

Damien: Jim, thank you for taking the time to share your outlook and opinions. I greatly appreciate it.

Jim: You are very welcome. Your site is very impressive. I look forward to staying in touch.

Tags: All Time Highs, Bloomberg, Bubbles, Cheat Sheet, Citigroup, Cocoa, Coffee Sugar, Commodities, Comprehension, Dr Doom, Ener, Gold, Gold Market, Government Bonds, Hoffman, Jim Rogers, New Highs, oil, Oil Supplies, Roubini, Single Market, Sri Lankan, Stock Market
Posted in Commodities, DXD, Emerging Markets, Gold, HFD, MYY, Markets | No Comments »

How to Blow Market Bubbles

Monday, August 10th, 2009

Simon Johnson, former Chief Economist at the IMF, and MIT Sloan School professor provides a well thought out explanation of how market bubbles form in “How to Blow A Bubble.” Earlier this year in May, Johnson penned the Atlantic magazine article - “The Quiet Coup: How Wall Street Captured Government.”

First he gives credence to Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi, author of the now famous expose on Goldman Sachs, for shedding light on “market microstructutures”

“- not the technological variety usually studied in mainstream finance, but more the politics of how you construct a multi-billion dollar opportunity so that you can get in, pull others after you, and then get out before it all collapses.  (This is also, by the way, how things work in Pakistan.)”

Johnson then provides his own view of Goldman Sachs has provided monetary policymakers with the ammunition and the will to make decisions that are ultimately responsible for the formation of bubbles:

Now it seems the ideological initiative may be shifting towards Goldman Sachs.

As Bloomberg reported on August 5th, “Goldman economists, led by Jan Hatzius in New York, now see a 3 percent increase in gross domestic product at an annual rate in the last six months of this year, versus a previous estimate of 1 percent. The new projections were included in a research note e-mailed to clients.”

Goldman’s public thinking, of course, has been that we face such slow growth that interest rates should be kept low indefinitely.  There is, in their view, no risk of inflation – and no such thing as potentially new bubbles (e.g., in emerging markets). The adjustment process will go well, as long as monetary policy stays very loose – it’s back to Bernanke’s 2003 line of thinking.

This line of reasoning has been very influential – reinforcing Bernanke’s commitment not to tighten monetary policy in the foreseeable future and fitting in very much with the Summers model of crisis recovery.  Just a couple of weeks ago, in his July 14 report, Jan Hatzius argued, “further stimulus remains appropriate” and “the appropriate debate is not whether fiscal and monetary expansion is appropriate in principle but whether it has been sufficiently aggressive.”  I don’t know if he has revised this line in the light of the big upward revision in his growth forecast or whether he is still saying, “Ultimately, we do expect further stimulus, but it may take significant disappointments in the economic data and the financial markets before policymakers move further in this direction.”

Much faster growth than expected is, of course, in today’s context a good thing.  But it also brings complications.  If you keep monetary policy this loose for much longer, you will feed bubbles.  And if you encourage even looser monetary and fiscal policy, there will be a costly reckoning not too far down the road.

Finally,

…Next time, our big banks will take another massive hit – quite possibly bigger than what we saw in 2008. 

Goldman and its insiders are ready for this.  Are you?

Read the whole article and others by Simon Johnson at Baseline Scenario.

Tags: Bloomberg, Bubbles, Chief Economist, Coupl, Credence, Crisis Recovery, Dollar Opportunity, Emerging Markets, Goldman Sachs, Gross Domestic Product, Imf, Line Of Reasoning, Magazine Article, Matt Taibbi, Mit Sloan School, Monetary Policy, Monetary Policymakers, Rolling Stone, School Professor, Simon Johnson
Posted in Emerging Markets, Gold, Markets | No Comments »

Asian markets won’t retest lows, says Chris Wood

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Chris Wood, street smart Global Equity Strategist of CLSA, yesterday said in an interview on CNBC-TC18 that the US markets remained in a bear market rally while Asia and India were in a secular bull market.

He said the Indian and Asian rally was started by local money, which according to him was a big long-term positive. He added that Asia and emerging markets (EMs) would be the biggest beneficiary of the Fed’s monetary easing. He also said liquidity could lead to massive asset bubbles in Asia and EMs.

Click the image below to view the interview. The video clip is followed by a verbatim transcript.

Q: What have you made of the markets’ move in the past few weeks?

A: I was expecting what I call a counter-trend rally, driven by a counter-trend rally in the S&P this year. The key point is that the S&P in the fourth quarter last calendar year went further below its 200 DMA, and at any point since 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression. So, it was almost inevitable that we were going to have a counter trend rally at some point in 2009. Actually, I thought it would start with the arrival of the new administration in January-February, but it didn’t start so much.

My guess as to how far this rally can go is 1000-1050 on the S&P, but I am viewing this as a counter-trend rally in a secular bear market for the US. I have a different view for Asia and India. I believe Asia and India remain in a secular bull market. So I have a fundamentally different view for the Western world and Asia.

Q: How would you describe what happened in 2008 then in India and other Asian markets like China? Deep cyclical correction? Over 10-15 months in an overall secular bull market?

A: I would describe that as a deep cyclical correction in Asia and EM driven by massive collective damage from what was going on in the Western financial system. That is why with my Absolute Return Portfolio I have been recommending to investors from the middle of 2007 only to own my recommended portfolio, by hedging the Western financial risk by being short on Western financial stocks. But in my view, the sell-off in Asian stocks last year was exacerbated by dramatic liquidation by foreign money, particularly by hedge funds and so-called funds of funds.

What is positive in the rally that began in Asia in October-November last year is that we’ve seen growing local investor participation in Asian market, so the people who bought earlier in this rally since late last year weren’t foreign fund managers but local investors throughout the region. That growing local investor participation is a long-term positive.

Q: So are you saying that the secular bull market has commenced again in India and other Asian markets?

A: Yes, I think it has recommenced. Two technical pieces of evidence support that view. First, Asian markets and EMs have been leading this rally ever since they bottomed last October-November. Second, when the S&P made a new low in March, the Asian markets and EMs did not make a new low. That is technical evidence to me that Asian markets and EMs have become the asset class of choice in global equities.

In the very short term, because Asian markets and EMs have outperformed dramatically, there is some scope for the S&P to outperform. However, in the long run, in my view, the asset class of choice in which to remain fundamentally overweight is Asia and EMs.

In my view, the biggest beneficiary of the dramatic monetary easing, quantitative easing undertaken by the Western central banks led by the Fed, won’t be American/British consumers or American/British stock markets. The biggest beneficiaries will be Asia and EMs. In fact, the dramatic monetary easing could lead to massive asset bubbles in due course in Asia and EMs because the excess liquidity will flow to the best growth story and the best growth stories in the world are Asia and EMs. They have the best demographic dynamics and have the healthiest economies because, unlike the Western world, they do not have the structural leverage problems.

Q: Often, the measure of the restart of a bull market after a bear market is when the previous highs get taken out. How long is it before you think India and other Asian markets can take out their old bull market highs?

A: I don’t assume that happens quickly, because I am bearish on the Western world. If I wasn’t bearish on the Western world, then I would say very quickly, but I am. So in my view we are in a process here, we have commenced a process of incremental decoupling from Western markets. At the beginning of 2008 many investors in China and Indian equities believed in decoupling but by the end of 2008, after a dramatic collapse in Asian stock markets after the Lehman bankruptcy, investors stopped believing in decoupling and started believing in the absolute opposite.

The absolute opposite was an export-correlated train wreck with the US consumer. People became extremely negative on the most important EM story, which was not India but China. This year the Indian and Chinese economies have shown growth momentum; those very bearish concerns were misplaced. So we now have some empirical evidence that Chinese and Indian economies are able to decouple to a certain extent from the American economy, from the American consumer.

The American economy is not growing, so that is building confidence in asset classes. We have begun the process of incremental decoupling. But I think unfortunately when the S&P turns down again, when people realise that it is an L-shaped situation in the US, not an U-shaped or V-shaped recovery, you will get renewed correction. But my view is that next time the Western stock markets go down the Asian markets will prove much more resilient. But this process is incremental; it is not going to happen on a 12-month view.

Q: How bearish are you on the US markets?

A: I would expect a retest of the 660 level in due course in the US if the equities correct and it coincides with the new dollar rally because the dollar rally is on deleveraging. But if the dollar keeps declining, the lows on the S&P need not be so large because some of the downside will be taken on the dollar.

Q: Even if the S&P were to go for a retest you think none of the EMs, including India, will go for a test of their 2008 lows?

A: I don’t believe in a world where the S&P revisits the lows of March. I don’t think the Asian equity markets, India, will revisit the lows because the Indian economy has demonstrated its domestic demand-driven resilience this year. We are now getting people talking of 5.5-6% growth - a few months back the RBI had come out with statements that growth was going to be much slower than expected and it said that growth was going to be 6%.

Reality is that at the beginning of this year investors thought 6% was not attainable, but the data that have been coming out have been a positive surprise. The Indian economy is keeping its growth - not by artificial stimulus measures by the government - so basically the data have been a positive surprise this year and the government has been another positive surprise, which has been a clear mandate that should allow a more coherent policy that should allow for a renewed vigour in the infrastructure cycle now.

Q: How positive is the election?

A: I don’t want to over-dramatize it because of the Indian government’s history of disappointing on reform expectations. But I what I do think is positive is that most foreign investors were on the sidelines before the election as they knew the situation is inherently unpredictable. So because of the clarity and because you don’t have a weak coalition government, I think that was a major catalyst for foreigners to reinvest in India, and logically the sector that should benefit is the infrastructure sector. The other point is that it has removed the risk that the fiscal deficit in India could get out of control.

Q: What are you overweight on in India and China?

A: I am overweight both on India and China but in the last quarter more India, because I was more overweight China in the first quarter. But in my long only portfolio, I am 33% in India and my biggest weight is in Indian banking though I did add an infrastructure name after the election.

Q: Public sector units or private sector?

A: Both, but if I were making a new allocation it would be to a private sector bank.

Q: This trait to tanking up to defensives, you think that trend is over?

A: Tactically, Asian markets have had a big rally and people were fortunate to be in the high-beta names and they should be thinking of moving to less-high-beta names now, 70-80 on the oil price, you should reduce the beta names. But I would reduce in the commodity-driven stocks, not banks.

Q: Do you find any discomfort with regard to valuations in India?

A: PEs look scary in India, especially infra, but India is a genuine domestic demand-driven growth story. So it deserves a high PE premium. On a price to book basis India looks undemanding. The whole risk in Asian valuations is in the potential negative correlation to the Western world.

Source: CNBC-TC18, June 3, 2009 (Hat tip: Viktor Capitalist).

Tags: 15 Months, Absolute Return, Asian Markets, Beneficiary, Bubbles, Cnbc, Dma, Emerging Markets, Ems, Global Equity, Great Depression, India, Key Point, liquidity, Lows, Market Rally, New Administration, Retest, Secular Bear Market, Secular Bull Market, Strategist
Posted in Emerging Markets, India, Markets | No Comments »

Jeremy Grantham: The last hurrah and seven lean years

Thursday, May 7th, 2009

Jeremy Grantham’s keenly awaited quarterly newsletter, entitled “The last hurrah and seven lean years”, has just been published. Grantham, who co-founded Boston-based GMO in 1977, covers a lot of thought-provoking ground in this letter, but focuses mostly on where to invest now.

The widely-respected Grantham’s newsletter is must-read material. The first few paragraphs are published below and a link to the full article is provided at the bottom of the post.

“First, let me lament the loss of near certainties in investing. The financial and economic collapse that I described as ‘the most widely predicted surprise in the history of finance’ about 18 months ago is behind us. More precisely, we believed that bubbles had formed in global profit margins, risk premiums, and U.S. and U.K. housing prices, and that all three were ‘near certainties’ to break, with severe consequences for the economic and financial system. All have thoroughly burst and are in their over correction phase with the single exception of U.K. house prices, which I’m confident will do their duty. Normally there are, of course, no near certainties in investing.

“Life is not meant to be that easy. Asset allocators have been blessed in the last 10 years with a large collection of extraordinary outliers. As my favorite quote by Mandelbrot (1983) says, ‘Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme events.’ If this last 10 years did not prove him right, nothing will.

“Since 1988, we have been offered 8 or 10 2-sigma events. (A 2-sigma event is our definition of an important bubble or bust.) All of these events were bubbles, and all behaved themselves by bursting. Now, sadly, there are probably none.

“Government bonds are the one serious candidate. In our opinion, they are badly overpriced but probably not by enough to justify the bubble title. Global equity markets are still cheap, but in major markets are nowhere near 2-sigma, 40-year bust levels. Some smallscale 2-sigma bargains may exist in the fi xed income markets in rate differentials, but need skillful analysis and knowledge to disentangle from value traps. And, they are a very far cry from, say, the opportunities offered by buying credit default swaps at a handful of basis points on overleveraged financials in early 2007. So, all in all, welcome back to the age of guesswork.”

Click here for the full report.

Source: Jeremy Grantham, GMO, May 2009.

Tags: Asset Allocators, Bubb, Bubbles, Certainties, Correction Phase, Economic Collapse, Extreme Events, Favorite Quote, Gmo, Government Bonds, House Prices, Jeremy Grantham, Lament, Lean Years, Mandelbrot, Outliers, Paragraphs, Profit Margins, Quarterly Newsletter, Risk Premiums
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Jeremy Grantham: Obama and the Teflon Men, and Other Short Stories (Part 2)

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

I published the first part of Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly newsletter, “Obama and the Teflon Men, and Other Short Stories (Part 1)” on this site a few weeks ago. The second part of the newsletter by the chairman of Boston-based GMO has also now been published.

Whereas Part 1 included thoughts on the recent loss of perceived wealth and President Obama’s appointments in the financial arena, Part 2 deals with value traps, transitioning from bubbles to busts, ethics in the financial industry, and the value of GMO’s asset allocation expertise in an environment of “near certainties”.

Click the links for the two parts of the newsletter: Part 1 and Part 2.

Source: Source: Jeremy Grantham, GMO, January 2009.

Tags: Appointments, Asset Allocation, Boston, Bubbles, Busts, Ethics, Financial Arena, Jeremy Grantham Gmo, Obama, Quarterly Newsletter, Short Stories, Teflon, Traps
Posted in Markets | No Comments »