Words from the (Investment) Wise (February 28, 2010)

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

As investors vacillated about the impact of developments in Greece, together with the uncertainty of strong fourth-quarter economic data possibly not carrying over to the first quarter, stock markets experienced two sharp sell-offs and two rebound rallies, limping to small gains on Friday but ending the week modestly down.

Renewed fears over Greece’s debt woes, disappointing German business confidence statistics and lower-than-expected US consumer confidence data tempered investor optimism for risky assts, triggering haven demand for government bonds and the Japanese yen.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provided some support for stock markets on Wednesday by indicating in his testimony to the US House Financial Services Committee that the fed fund rate will remain at exceptionally low levels for an extended period. However, the flip side of the coin is his gloomy picture of the economy still battling high unemployment and a weak housing sector.

“Greece hasn’t gotten so much press since 146 BC when the Romans took over,” said Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust). In news after the close of the markets, the Financial Times reported: “Germany’s biggest banks are looking at a rescue plan for Greece under which they would buy Greek debt backed by financial guarantees from Berlin. One senior German bank official said serious thought was being given to a plan for the German government, working through KfW, its development bank, to issue guarantees to banks that bought Greek debt.”

Source:  Patrick Blower, Guardian

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized in the chart below - a set of numbers indicating that a degree of risk aversion has crept back into financial markets. Interestingly, unlike equities, both investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds ended the week in the black. “We believe investors can capture attractive yields and excess spread in the high-yield market with relatively low default risk,” Andrew Jessop, high-yield portfolio manager at Pimco, said in a note on the company’s website (via MoneyNews).

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of the movements of major global stock markets for the past week and various other measurement periods is given in the table below.

It was essentially a flat week, with the MSCI World Index declining by 0.1%, but the MSCI Emerging Markets Index managing to eke out a positive return of 0.3%. With the Chinese returning from the lunar holiday, Hong Kong (+3.6%) put in one of the better performances among important markets, whereas mainland China (+1.1%) also closed the week in the black.

Notwithstanding the huge rally since the March lows, only the Chile Stock Market General Index has been able to reclaim its 2007 pre-crisis peak and is now trading 9.4% higher. Mexico could be the next country to eliminate the bear market losses.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

Top performers among stock markets this week were Ukraine (+4.5%), Greece (+3.7%), Hong Kong (+3.6%), Cyprus (+3.2%) and Thailand (+3.0%). At the bottom end of the performance rankings, countries included Turkey (‑6.8%), Malta (-5.7%), Austria (-5.2%), Argentina (-4.9%) and Latvia (-4.2%). Turkey suffered from tensions between the government and the military. Debt-ridden European countries such as Italy (-3.2%), Spain (-3.2%), Ireland (-3.2%) and Portugal (-2.1%) featured strongly at the bottom end of the performance ranking.

Of the 96 stock markets I keep on my radar screen, 33% recorded gains, 60% showed losses and 7% remained unchanged. The performance map below tells the past week’s somewhat bearish story.

Emerginvest world markets heat map

Source: Emerginvest (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements.)

Eight of the ten economic sectors of the S&P 500 Index closed lower for the week, with Financials and Consumer Discretionary the only two sectors not under water. (Who would have guessed the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index would fall to its lowest level since July 2009 on Tuesday?)

Source: US Global Investors - Weekly Investor Alert, February 26, 2010.

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that as far as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, the winners for the week included Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) (+4.3%), iShares MSCI Thailand (THD) (+3.9%) and CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) (+3.1%).

At the bottom end of the performance rankings, ETFs included iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) (-8.8%), Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN) (-7.2%) and United States Natural Gas (UNG) (down 5.1%).

Referring to a regulatory report released on Tuesday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC), the quote du jour this week comes from Addison Wiggin, co-author of Financial Reckoning Day Fallout and The New Empire of Debt. He said in a column on The Daily Reckoning site: “The FDIC is even more broke than it was three months ago. The fund the FDIC uses to ‘insure’ your bank account went $20.9 billion in the red during the fourth quarter of 2009. That’s more than twice the deficit reported when the fund first entered negative territory in the previous quarter. Incredibly, the FDIC is still trying to reassure us that all is well because it’s collecting three years of advance payments on the annual assessments paid by its member banks. The fees total $45 billion - barely twice the amount of the current deficit. Yeah, we feel better.

“On top of that, the FDIC’s list of ‘problem banks’ grew during the fourth quarter from 552 to 702. That’s the highest number since 1993 (when, we presume, more independently owned banks were around, so it’s worse than it sounds). Hmmm, let’s see. The number grew 27% in just one quarter. At this pace, every bank in the country will be on the problem list by the fourth quarter of 2012. Another tidbit from the FDIC’s report: Bank lending last year dropped at the biggest clip since 1942. Of course, in that year, the entire economy was shifting to a war footing. So it’s safe to say what we’re seeing now is another unprecedented postwar occurrence.”

Next, a quick textual analysis of my week’s reading. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. “Bank”, “debt”, “economy”, “Fed”, “rate” and “market” all featured prominently, but it was somewhat surprising to see “China” commanding more media mentions than “Greece”.

The major moving-average levels for the benchmark US indices, the BRIC countries and South Africa (where I am based in Cape Town when not traveling) are given in the table below. With the exception of the Dow Jones Transportation Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 2000 Index, the indices in the table are all trading below their 50-day moving averages, but all the indices are still above their respective key 200-day moving averages. However, a red light is starting to flash regarding the Shanghai Composite Index, which is within striking distance (20 basis points) of this key support line.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

Commenting on the technical picture of the S&P 500, Kevin Lane (Fusion IQ) said: “The Index hit minor resistance a few trading sessions back near the 1,112 level. Until this level is taken out the near-term directional bias remains neutral. Lower down, the key level to watch is in the 1,072 area. This support level represents a much more significant uptrend line and if violated would suggest a bigger correction.

“Sentiment indicators are neutral at present, which is a positive, while market breadth remains a mixed bag. Clearly the recent trading activity suggests volatility will be more present in day-to-day trading than over the past few months.”

On the topic of charts, when considering S&P 500 monthly data, going back to 1998, three momentum-type oscillators (RSI, MACD and ROC) all still signal a bullish trend (see chart below). According to Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture) is not as bullish as he was last March when he called the market bottom, but is sticking with stocks. “The easy thing to do now would be to go to cash,” he said, “[But] I rarely find the easy trade is the one that makes you money.” (Incidentally, the long-term chart for US government bonds is in bearish mode.)

Source: StockCharts.com

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, said: “Let’s face it, the surprise two months into the year is that the stock market is down more than 1% and 10-year Treasury yields are also down 20bps. It is still early in the year to be sure but it also seems clear that the economic data are starting to show some fragility. The S&P 500 has done little more than hover around the 1,100 mark now for six months in what can only be classified as a major topping formation. The VIX index is at 20, not 40; market vane sentiment is closer to 60 than 30; the US dollar is strong, not weak; policies are moving tighter, not easier; and the government is now aiming to curtail the banks whereas a year ago it was all about saving them.

“With a V-shaped earnings recovery already priced in and economic houses, like MacroEconomic Advisors, calling for 4% GDP growth for 2010, it certainly is difficult to highlight where the upside surprises for the market are going to be.”

From across the pond, David Fuller (Fullermoney) adds the following perspective: “Do we have a real crisis today? It is real enough for Southern European countries and obviously heightens sovereign debt concerns from Greece to the USA via the UK, but is this another global crisis? I do not think so, at least not yet although the OECD countries’ problems are far from resolved.

“The loss of upside momentum by most stock markets and many commodities, including precious metals, clearly indicates that global investors have reduced leveraged exposure in the last three months. Whether this is a normal correction (our previously stated 40% possibility) or likely to become a self-feeding and more significant pullback (also a 40% possibility) is hard to gauge, but action near the 200-day moving averages will be revealing. Even in the latter instance, I do not think the global economic background justifies a resumption of bear markets (20% possibility), which were discounting near-depression conditions between 4Q 2008 and 1Q 2009.”

I side with Fuller on his conclusion, but am also cognizant of the 12-month momentum of the S&P 500 narrowly tracking the US GDP-weighted PMI (see graph below). Current levels of the S&P 500 indicate the market is expecting a GDP-weighted PMI in excess of 60.0 vs a current level of 52.3. If the S&P 500 maintains its current levels around 1,100, the 12-month momentum will drop to 39% at the end of March and 27% at the end of April this year. Even this drop in momentum requires the GDP-weighted PMI to rise to 55 and higher. Although not impossible, it seems improbable given the sub-par economic recovery. It can therefore be deduced that the US equity market is somewhat overpriced even if the GDP-weighted PMI should improve to 55. Understandably, Marc Faber suggests (via a Financial Times interview) “investors should make 2010 the year of ‘capital preservation’”.

Source: Plexus Asset Management (based on data from I-Net Bridge).

For more discussion on the economy and financial markets, see my recent posts “Montier: Was it all just a bad dream? Or, ten lessons not learnt“, “Barry Ritholtz sticks with stocks, especially emerging markets“, “Q4 earnings in perspective“, “Face to face with Marc Faber” and “Is the credit malaise really over?” (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of February 26, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

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Economy
“Business sentiment has improved markedly since hitting bottom about a year ago. This improvement has been about the same across the globe, with South Americans somewhat more optimistic and North Americans somewhat less so,” according to the results of the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World by Moody’s Economy.com. Businesses are most upbeat when responding to broader questions about current conditions and the outlook into this summer, but remain cautious when responding to specific questions regarding the strength of sales, pricing, inventories and hiring.

Source: Moody’s Economy.com

Meanwhile, the Ifo Business Survey for industry and trade in Germany clouded over somewhat in February. For the first time in ten months, the business climate index has not risen, blaming especially the situation in retailing, which experienced a setback in February. On the whole, the firms have assessed their current business situation somewhat more unfavorably than in the previous month.

Source: Ifo Business Survey, February 23, 2010.

A snapshot of the week’s rather mixed US economic reports is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

Friday, February 26
• Existing home sales and inventories disappoint
• Minor revisions of Q4 real GDP

Thursday, February 25
• Have durable goods orders and shipments turned the corner?
• Total continuing claims remain at elevated level

Wednesday, February 24
• Chairman Bernanke repeats “Fed fund rate to remain exceptionally low for an extended period”
• Sales of new homes post new record low
• As Greece goes, so goes the US?

Tuesday, February 23
• Consumer confidence slips in February
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index records seventh monthly gain

Monday, February 22
• Fed’s Yellen underscores that removing monetary accommodation now is inappropriate
• Chicago Fed Index advances in January

Referring to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony, Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) said: “The most important message from Chairman Bernanke’s testimony is that the federal fund rate will be held at 0%-0.25% for an extended period. In light of the higher discount rate (0.75% vs. 0.50%) announced on February 18, 2010, market participants obtained confirmation from the Chairman that the change in the discount rate was a removal of emergency accommodation put in place to address the financial crisis and not a sign of tightening of the monetary policy stance.”

“I don’t think the Fed dares increase the fed fund or policy rate in the face of unemployment at double-digit type of levels. This is more of a technical maneuver,” Bill Gross of Pimco told Reuters (via MoneyNews).

In related news, the Treasury said on Tuesday that it would bolster its Supplementary Financing Program by selling $200 billion in short-term debt and storing the proceeds at the central bank, thereby helping the Fed remove reserves from the financial system.

Summarizing the growth outlook, Bangalore said: “Going forward, the US economy is predicted to show moderate growth in the first three quarters of 2010 and strong growth in the final three months of 2010, with the virtuous cycle of real and financial recovery working together to lift economic growth.”

Bespoke highlights a daily Life Evaluation Poll conducted by Gallup.com and Healthways in which participants are asked whether they are “thriving”, “struggling” or “suffering”. As shown below, 56% now say they’re thriving, while 41% say they’re struggling (3% are suffering, which is not shown on the chart). ”These readings are at just about the widest spread we’ve seen since the markets’ recovery began,” remarked Bespoke.

Source: Bespoke, February 26, 2010.

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance, February 26, 2010.

Click here for a summary of Wells Fargo Securities’ weekly economic and financial commentary.

Next week sees interest rate announcements by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) (Thursday, March 4). In addition, US economic data reports for the week include the following:

Monday, March 1
• Personal income
• Personal spending
• PCE prices
• Construction spending
• ISM Manufacturing Index

Tuesday, March 2
• Auto sales
• Truck sales

Wednesday, March 3
• Challenger job cuts
• ADP employment
• ISM Services Index
• Fed’s Beige Book

Thursday, March 4
• Jobless claims
• Productivity
• Factory orders
• Pending home sales

Friday, March 5
• Nonfarm payrolls
• Consumer credit

Markets
The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global financial markets performed during the past week.

Source:Wall Street Journal Online, February 26, 2010.

Final words

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for Standard & Poor’s Equity Research Services, said: “If everyone is forecasting something, then you know it won’t come true.” (Hat tip: Charles Kirk.) Let’s hope the news items and quotes from market commentators included in the “Words from the Wise” review will assist readers of Investment Postcards in guarding against popular (and often wrong) market views.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town with its sun-drenched days.

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Source: Adam Zyglis, Comics.com

Real World Economics Review Blog: Greenspan, Friedman and Summers win Dynamite Prize in Economics
“Alan Greenspan has been judged the economist most responsible for causing the Global Financial Crisis. He and 2nd and 3rd place finishers Milton Friedman and Larry Summers, have won the first - and hopefully last - Dynamite Prize in Economics.

“They have been judged to be the three economists most responsible for the Global Financial Crisis. More figuratively, they are the three economists most responsible for blowing up the global economy.

“More than 7,500 people voted - most of whom were economists themselves - from the 11,000 subscribers to the real world economics review. With a maximum of three votes per voter, a total of 18,531 votes were cast.

“This blog established the prize in response to attempts by economists to evade responsibility for the crisis by calling it an unpredictable, ‘Black Swan’ event. In reality, the public perception that economic theories and policies helped cause the crisis is correct.”

Source: Real World Economics Review Blog, February 22, 2010.

BCA Research: Sowing the seeds of the next fiscal crisis?
“Mushrooming government indebtedness has reemerged to the forefront as a major issue. “Global policymakers learned from the volatility during the first half of the 20th century: when faced with an adverse economic shock, the natural tendency for a modern economy with leverage is to deflate and undergo an Austrian-style cleansing process. Thus, there is an incentive for authorities to reflate each time economic and financial problems break out, encouraging a further buildup of debt and leverage in the economy (i.e. push today’s problems forward to the next generation).

“We have coined this the Debt Supercycle. Unfortunately, the dramatic increase in the policy response needed to end the current recession suggests that the Debt Supercycle is nearing an end. In fact, we would argue that the household sector in the US, UK, and many parts of the euro area have already moved beyond their natural debt ceilings, due in part by lax bank lending standards in recent years.

“Given that authorities have reached the limit of their ability to convince households to take on more leverage, governments have instead been forced to leverage themselves to prevent a deflationary economic adjustment. In addition, the nature of the synchronized global downturn meant that substantial currency depreciation was not a viable reflation option for policymakers. As such, monetary and fiscal policy had to do the heavy lifting. Sizable deficits were a necessary evil if authorities wanted to avoid a sustained period of debt-deflation.”

Source: BCA Research - Daily Insights, February 26, 2010.

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Concentrate long-term investments in low risk countries
“There has been a great deal of discussion in the financial press about whether Greece will successfully navigate the crisis it now finds itself in, if the Eurozone will survive a sovereign debt default should one occur and if there is a risk of contagion for countries such as the UK, Japan and the US. These are all important questions which we will have definitive answers for in the coming months and years but to my mind there is a more important question that needs to be addressed first.

“All the issues facing these governments are in essence related to a problem with too much debt and leverage and not enough tax receipts to pay it down. The questions so far have focused on how one country or another might survive this crisis but from the perspective of a judge at an international beauty contest do we want to invest in these countries at all since there are plenty more where these problems are relatively minor if they exist at all?

“Commodity producers such as Australia and Canada have come through this crisis comparatively unharmed. Most of the others are primarily in the so-called emerging markets. Brazil is now a net creditor, China has the biggest foreign currency reserves in the world. Large numbers of countries in Latin America and Asia run trade surpluses. If we look at the world with a broader perspective we see clearly where risk and leverage are concentrated.

“The outcome of the major challenges facing the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan are crucial because of the effect they have on the global market. However, we do not have to invest in the debt, currencies or equities of these countries. Others are better equipped to deal with these issues from a position of strength. They have shown to be credible managers of their economies in a truly testing era and it is surely in these countries one should concentrate long-term investments.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, February 24, 2010.

Financial Times: Experts eye possible Greek bail-out
“As Greece battles to stop its public finances from drowning in debt, technical experts in eurozone capitals are already looking at the shape of a possible bail-out - despite a chorus of governments insisting that no plans for such a move exist.

“Even Berlin has become so worried about the stability of the euro - and of German banks holding Greek debt - that officials have begun toning down Germany’s “No financial aid for Greece” mantra.

“One senior German official said Berlin and other eurozone governments were prepared to lend Athens money or buy its sovereign bonds, should the Greek administration run into trouble rolling over debt on the markets.

“Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, of the European Central Bank’s executive board, told Italian television that it was ‘possible that money will be needed’ to help Greece. But it would be a sum ‘much more limited’ than the figure of about €20bn ($27bn) discussed by eurozone officials this month.

“Athens has about €20bn in debt coming due in April and May, which will need to be refinanced. Eurozone nations hope that current Greek reforms will convince investors to buy its bonds - with the eurozone only covering any shortfall.

“German officials have said any funding gap the zone might have to fill could well prove ‘quite small’. Berlin might push for the symbolism of all euro nations chipping in modest amounts to meet this shortfall, according to these officials.

“A tried-and-tested allocation key under consideration for this approach is based on the gross domestic product and population-weighted shareholdings of the European Central Bank. By this measure, Berlin would cover 28 per cent of Greece’s funding gap, Paris 21 per cent and Rome 18.

“The bigger the Greek funding need, however, the more this would strain other budgets also under pressure in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. For this reason, a French official said helping Athens could yet be voluntary.

“In a sign that any help would be decided in an ad hoc manner, a German official said measures would be agreed ‘on a case-by-case basis’. It would be up to each country to decide for itself how to structure its contributions.”

Source: Gerrit Wiesmann and Peggy Hollinger, Financial Times, February 23, 2010.

The Wall Street Journal: Greek debt crisis - Athens choked by general strike
“A massive general strike to protest EU-mandated austerity measures closed banks, government offices and post offices, crippling the Greek capital on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal’s Andy Jordan reports from the streets of Athens.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2010.

MartinKronicle: Greece and California death match
“The spreads between Greece/German bunds and California/30-yr Treasuries are widening. Investors are demanding more for carrying the risk. The downgrade in CA paper yesterday will give the Greek bonds a run for their Drachmas …

“According to a Reuters report, the spread between 10-year Greek government bonds and the benchmark Euro zone German bunds has risen to an 11-month high of 298 bps, up from 265 the day before. The high is 300 bps set about a year ago. The equivalent for Spanish bonds is trading at 81 bps premium over German bunds.

“According to an article in Bloomberg, the spreads between CA debt and the 30-year bond are also widening and PIMCO was quoted as saying that the CA debt crisis is headed back to disaster levels.

“Bloomberg: ‘A taxable California bond that matures in 2039 traded today for an average yield of 7.79 percent in blocks of more than $1 million, the highest since December 28, according to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board data. That opened a gap of 3.15 percentage points between California’s bond and 30-year Treasuries, according to Bloomberg data.’

“Yikes …!

“Add to that the fact that S&P downgraded California’s debt rating to AA- from AA … not that I hold S&P in any esteem - I don’t. But the fact is that CA will now have to pay higher coupon payments on the issuance of new debt thanks to the downgrade. They deserved it.”

Source: MartinKronicle, February 24, 2010.

Financial Times: Goldman role in Greek crisis probed
“The US central bank is looking into Goldman Sachs’s role in arranging contentious derivatives trades for Greece, which helped the country to massage its public finances, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, revealed on Thursday.

“‘We are looking into a number of questions relating to Goldman Sachs and other companies and their derivatives arrangements with Greece,’ Mr Bernanke said, apparently referring to Greek currency transactions structured by Goldman.

“Testifying before Congress, Mr Bernanke also responded to concerns that instability in markets for Greek debt and other securities has been heightened by trading in other derivatives, known as credit default swaps, which compensate investors in case of default.

“Mr Bernanke said default swaps are ‘properly used as hedging instruments’ and that ‘using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilises a company or a country is counterproductive’.

“The Securities and Exchange Commission is ‘examining potential abuses and destabilising effects related to the use of credit default swaps and other opaque financial products and practices’, said a spokesman.

“Separately, Phil Angelides, chairman of the US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, told the Financial Times he was concerned about the practice of creating securities and ‘fully betting against them’ - and about Goldman’s role in particular. Goldman declined to comment.”

Source: Alan Rappeport, Tom Braithwaite and David Oakley, Financial Times, February 25, 2010.

Financial Times: Bernanke signals US rates to be kept low
“US interest rates will remain at exceptionally low levels for an ‘extended period’ in spite of the ‘nascent’ economic recovery, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, told Congress on Wednesday.

“Mr Bernanke painted a gloomy picture of the economy, still struggling with high unemployment and a weak housing market. Inflationary pressures, the main driver of tighter monetary policy, were likely to remain ’subdued’, he said.

“Facing lawmakers for the first time in his second term as Fed chairman, he told the House financial services committee: ‘The Federal Open Market committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions - including low rates of resource utilisation, subdued inflation trends and stable inflation expectations - are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.’

“The insistence that rate rises are months away will damp fears that last week’s increase in the discount rate - at which commercial banks can borrow emergency cash from the central bank - from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent heralds a swifter tightening of monetary policy.

“Fed officials, including Mr Bernanke, have indicated it was simply a move to unwind emergency liquidity measures put in place during the crisis, as a result of improving conditions in the financial markets, and not a tightening move. Goldman Sachs economists said it was ‘crystal clear’ the Fed did not anticipate raising rates soon.

“Nevertheless, the Fed this month began to lay out its vision for the sequence of measures that it expects to take to withdraw reserves from the financial system once the economic recovery is sufficiently strong. Although the economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, economists are expecting the pace of growth to slow over the course of the year. The Fed is expecting growth of 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent this year.

“‘A sustained recovery will depend on continued growth in private sector final demand for goods and services,’ said Mr Bernanke.

“Mr Bernanke also addressed the fallout from the financial crisis. He said the US central bank would step up surveillance of financial institutions and agreed that congressional investigators should be allowed to audit the emergency facilities put in place during the crisis.”

Source: James Politi, Financial Times, February 24, 2010.

MoneyNews: Pimco - Fed move isn’t start of tightening cycle
“The Federal Reserve’s surprise move on Thursday to raise the interest rate it charges banks for emergency loans does not mean that a full-fledged tightening cycle has begun, the manager of Pimco, the world’s biggest bond fund, told Reuters.

“‘I don’t think it’s the beginning, really, of a tightening from the standpoint of monetary policy,’ Bill Gross told Reuters soon after the Fed’s decision.

“‘I don’t think it is the beginning of an increase in the fed funds rate or in terms of interest on reserves that has been discussed as well.’

“The US central bank took pains to draw the distinction between the discount rate and its target for the overnight interbank rate, its main monetary policy tool. That rate remains unchanged near zero percent as a fragile US economic recovery struggles to gain traction.

“‘Like the closure of a number of extraordinary credit programs earlier this month, these changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,’ the Fed said in a statement.

“‘The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy,’ it said.

“‘I don’t think the Fed dares increase the fed funds or policy rate in the face of unemployment at double-digit type of levels. This is more of a technical maneuver,’ said Gross.

Source: MoneyNews, February 19, 2010.

Financial Times: Fed efforts boosted by Treasury’s $200 billion debt plan
“The Federal Reserve’s ability to drain excess liquidity from the financial system received a boost on Tuesday when the Treasury revived a plan to sell $200bn in short-term debt and store the proceeds at the central bank.

“The move comes as the Fed lays the groundwork to shrink its balance sheet in preparation for the time when the economy is sufficiently strong to require a tightening of monetary policy.

“By bolstering its Supplementary Financing Programme, the Treasury would help the Fed remove $200bn in reserves from the financial system. Some economists said that this would help bring the Fed’s main interest rate closer to the upper end of its current 0-0.25 per cent target.

“‘This move does mean there will be $200bn fewer reserves in the banking system, which could provide a little bit of lift to the effective fed funds rate,’ said Michael Feroli of JPMorgan. ‘As such, it could be seen as a first step in putting the Fed in position to raise rates.’

“However, the move was described as a ‘purely technical adjustment in liquidity’ by Joseph Abate of Barclays Capital. He said: ‘The $200bn worth of reserves drained … is unlikely to have a noticeable effect on the effective funds rate, which remains locked under 15 basis points.’

“The Fed did not comment on the move, but Ben Bernanke, chairman, could address the issue when he faces Congress on Wednesday. The Treasury programme was introduced during the crisis to help the Fed better manage its balance sheet.

“It had been wound down since last September, when the government’s borrowing capacity ran up against the US debt ceiling. Congress recently agreed to raise the debt ceiling to $1,900bn, making it possible to revive the programme.”

Source: James Politi, Financial Times, February 24, 2010.

TheStreet.com: Stiglitz says beware of double dip
“Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel prize winning economist and the author of Freefall, says the worst effects of the credit crisis may be behind us, but the American economy remains highly vulnerable to a double dip recession.”

Source: TheStreet.com, February 24, 2010.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Minor revisions of Q4 real GDP
“Real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009, slightly higher than the previously reported increase of 5.7%. Upward revisions of inventories, exports, structures, and equipment and software more than offset downward revisions of consumer spending, government spending, and residential investment expenditures to yield a higher headline reading compared with the advance estimate.

“At the cost of reiterating, the fourth quarter headline GDP number is large but not strong because real final sales increased only 1.9% in the fourth quarter, while inventories accounted for nearly seventy percent of the increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter.

“Going forward, the US economy is predicted to show moderate growth in the first three quarters of 2010 and strong growth in the final three months of 2010, with virtuous cycle of real and financial recovery working together to lift economic growth.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, February 26, 2010.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Total continuing claims remain at elevated level
“Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 496,000 in the week ended February 20. Essentially, initial jobless claims established a bottom in January and have once again resumed an upward trend, which is very worrisome. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, were virtually steady at 4.617 million and the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5%.

“Total continuing claims, inclusive of claims under special programs, fell slightly to 10.29 million during the week ended February 6 from 10.56 million in the prior week. Total continuing claims have risen 3.95 million over the past year. The labor market remains the biggest concern of the FOMC, competing closely with the housing market.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, February 25, 2010.

Clusterstock: The unemployment chart you’ll love and hate
“Here’s an unemployment chart you’ll both love and hate, from Citi’s Steven Wieting.

“As shown below, since 1980, employment (in red) has fallen after corporate profits (in black) have risen, and vice versa. The relationship is very clear.

“Problem is, there’s about a one-year lag between the two trends. This highlights what should simply make sense - companies hire people once they see profits rebounding, and more importantly once they believe that adding more people will lead to higher profits. Still, this fact of economics isn’t fun for the unemployed.

“But here’s the good news. Given the recent rebound in corporate profits the US has already experienced, there is a very high chance that employment will get better over the coming twelve months. One can’t stress enough the fact that employment is a lagging indicator.”

Source: Vincent Fernando and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - Business Insider), February 25, 2010.

Financial Times: US senate moves ahead on $15 billion jobs bill
“The US Senate on Monday voted to move forward on a $15 billion jobs bill proposed by Harry Reid, leader of the Democratic majority in the Senate.

“The 62-30 vote in favour of ending ‘cloture’ prevents a Republican filibuster and came as an exception to the months of gridlock in Congress. It will pave the way for a jobs bill to clear the Senate, just as other critical employment benefits are set to expire.

“Democrats needed to secure two Republican votes to block the filibuster and one came thanks to Scott Brown, making his first vote since he filled Edward Kennedy’s former seat in Massachusetts.

“‘I hope this is the beginning of a new day in the Senate,’ Mr Reid said, invoking Mr Brown by name for his bipartisanship.

“The scaled-back measure is expected to create 250,000 jobs through an array of tax credits and payroll tax exemptions to stimulate hiring. The bill frees businesses from payroll taxes on workers who are hired after more than 60 days of unemployment and gives them a tax credit of $1,000 for new hires that they keep for more than a year.

“The bill also provides funding for highway and transportation projects, allows companies to write-off equipment purchases as expenses and expands the Build America bond scheme to help subsidise school and energy projects.”

Source: Alan Rappeport, Financial Times, February 22, 2010.

Standard and Poors’: Home prices continue to send mixed messages
“Data through December 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of US home prices, show that the US National Home Price Index fell in the fourth quarter of 2009 but has improved in its annual rate of return, as compared to what was reported in the third quarter.

“The chart above depicts the annual returns of the US National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, which covers all nine US census divisions, recorded a 2.5% decline in the fourth quarter of 2009 versus the fourth quarter of 2008. This is a significant improvement over the annual rates reported in the first, second and third quarters of the year, at -19.0%, -14.7% and -8.7%, respectively. In December, the 10-City and 20- City Composites recorded annual declines of 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. These two indices, which are reported at a monthly frequency, have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month since the beginning of the year.

“‘As measured by prices, the housing market is definitely in better shape than it was this time last year, as the pace of deterioration has stabilized for now. However, the rate of improvement seen during the summer of 2009 has not been sustained,’ says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.”

Source: Standard and Poors’, February 23, 2010.

VisualEconomics: Cost of home ownership
“The last three years have seen a significant drop in the cost of housing in the United States; bringing prices back down from once astronomical levels.”

Source: VisualEconomics, February 23, 2010.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Existing home sales and inventories disappoint
“Sales of all existing homes fell 7.2% to an annual rate of 5.05 million units in January after a 16.2% drop in December. Sales of existing single-family homes declined 6.9% to an annual rate of 4.43 million units. Purchases of existing single-family homes have risen nearly 9.0% from the trough in January 2009. Sales of existing homes fell in all four regions across the nation during January. It appears that the extension of the first-time home buyer tax credit program is yet to translate into increased sales; the program expires in April 2010.

“The median price of an existing single-family home was down 0.4% from a year ago to $163,600. There is a gradual stabilization of home prices visible in latest movements of the median price of an existing single-family home but the recent increase in inventories of unsold homes casts a shadow on projections of further improvements on the price front.

“The seasonally adjusted inventory-sales ratio of single-family existing homes rose to 8.4-month supply during January from a 7.6-month mark in December.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, February 26, 2010.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Consumer confidence slips in February
“The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.0 in February from 56.5 in the prior month. This is the lowest since July 2009. Sluggish employment conditions are seen to be a major reason for the loss of confidence in February after a string of three monthly gains. The Present Situation Index (19.4 vs. 25.2 in February) and the Expectations Index (63.8 vs. 77.3 in February) declined in February.

“The number of respondents indicating that ‘jobs are to hard to get’ rose in February (47.7% vs. 46.5% in January), while the number claiming that ‘jobs are plentiful’ fell (3.6% vs. 4.4% in January). The net of these two indexes tracks the unemployment rate closely. The difference between these two indexes widened to 44.1 in February from 42.1 in January, suggesting that the jobless rate is most likely to inch higher in February.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, February 23, 2010.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Have durable goods orders and shipments turned the corner?
“The headline number for orders of durable goods in January (+0.3%) is strong. But, shipments of durable goods edged down 0.2% after a 2.4% increase in the prior month. The durable goods numbers always show big swings because of large ticket items. The January increase in orders was lifted by the 126% increase in orders of aircraft, with orders excluding transportation posting a 0.6% drop. One way to sort out the large deviations of month-to-month data is to look at year-to-year changes. On a year-to-year basis, orders (+9.9%) and shipments (+1.5%) of durable goods posted gains in January, after an extended period of declines going back to early-2008. This change in trend is noteworthy and warrants close watching.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, February 25, 2010.

Financial Times: Foreclosures in the US
“Aline van Duyn, US markets editor of the Financial Times, says that a number of American homeowners whose houses are worth less than their mortgages are choosing to let their homes go into foreclosure and let the banks suffer the losses.”

Source: Financial Times, February 22, 2010.

Clusterstock: Bankers getting paid a lot to sit on their hands and do nothing
Yesterday we pointed you to the latest data from the St. Louis Fed showing that bank lending continues to plunge. Rather than ply businesses with loans, banks are instead opting to hoard cash and buy Treasuries.

“And yet despite the lending shutdown, bonuses are back up, per fresh data out today from the New York Comptroller. In other words, sitting on your hands and doing nothing is a pretty lucrative gig.”

Source: Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - Business Insider, February 23, 2010.

Financial Times: Number of US “problem” banks soars
“The number of problem banks in the US continued to soar in last year’s fourth quarter, hitting their highest level since 1993, according to a regulatory report released on Tuesday.

“The findings by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp suggest that, although the US economy is on the mend, the financial industry, bedevilled by souring residential and commercial real estate loans, will take longer to recover.

“The FDIC said 702 banks were considered troubled at the end of 2009, up from 552 three months earlier. Problem assets totalled $402.8bn in the final period, compared with $345.9bn in the third quarter. By contrast, Lehman Brothers listed $639bn in assets at the time of its bankruptcy filing in September 2008.

“No longer confined to Wall Street, the financial crisis has cascaded over to regional and community banks that are feeling a disproportionate amount of the pain. ‘The great recession has very much become a Main Street problem,’ said Richard Brown, the FDIC’s chief economist.

“Although bank earnings showed a slight improvement in the fourth quarter, totalling $914m against a $37.8bn loss in the year-ago period, they still remain below historical highs. Any improvement in earnings, the FDIC said, was concentrated among the largest institutions.

“For the full year, banks earned $12.5bn, up from $4.5bn in 2008 but far below the $100bn recorded in 2007.

“Loan losses jumped for the 12th consecutive quarter to total $53bn, an increase of 37 per cent over the year-ago period. On an annualised basis the rate of losses accounted for in the quarter was the highest in more than two decades.

“Losses rose in all significant categories, including residential mortgage loans and credit card debt. One of the fastest growing categories for uncollectable debt was commercial real estate.

“Although the level of bank failures is alarming, it pales against the troubles of the savings and loan crisis. At the height of that meltdown, in 1987, some 2,165 banks were considered troubled and problem assets totalled $833bn.

“But the full weight of the current crunch has yet to be felt. The FDIC took over 140 banks in 2009 and analysts expect more to follow. The FDIC said on Tuesday it set aside another $17.8bn in the fourth quarter for bank failures. It expected total bank failures to cost $100bn from 2008 to 2013.”

Source: Suzanne Kapner, Financial Times, February 23, 2010.

John Authers (Financial Times): US yield curve
“We ignore the yield curve at our peril. That is one of the lessons from the financial implosion that started in 2007, but how do we apply it now?

“The yield curve is the popular name for the spread between the yields on 10-year and two-year Treasury bonds. Usually, investors require a bigger yield to compensate them for the greater risks that come with lending money over a longer term.

“When short-term yields rise above long-term ones, then market jargon holds that the yield curve is “inverted”. This has been a great recession indicator, as it implies the market thinks short-term interest rates must imminently be cut. Each of the past seven recessions was preceded by a brief period when the yield curve was inverted and there has only been one false signal.

“But what happens when the yield curve gets very steep? That is happening now and there are few, if any, precedents. Last week, 10-year yields exceeded two-year ones by 2.94 percentage points, the highest figure since the Federal Reserve’s records for this indicator began in 1976.

“Its previous peaks were at about 2.5 percentage points in October 2003, when a brief bull market in equities was gathering pace, and October 1992, when years of expansion for both markets and the economy lay ahead.

“Should this, then, be regarded as a big reason for optimism? Perhaps not. An implicit bet that rates will rise over the next 10 years is not daring when rates are virtually at zero. Neither is a call for an intermediate economic recovery after a savage recession.

“In any case, the extremes that financial markets have touched in the past few years make it dangerous to read any indicator with too much confidence. But it does seem to suggest that the market is more convinced than economists both that central banks will be raising rates sooner rather than later and that the US economy is enjoying a true recovery.”

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, February 22, 2010.

MoneyNews: Rogers - China will keep dumping US Treasuries
“China will continue to sell US Treasuries in the future, says Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund.

“China will unload more debt as the ‘euro scare’ continues, he said.

“The government reported that appetite for Treasuries declined by the largest amount in December as China reduced its allocation by $34.2 billion to $755.4 billion. Japan made a similar move and lowered its amount by $11.5 billion to $768.8 billion.

“‘I am surprised China has not dropped more,’ Rogers told CNBC.

“The United States should be concerned about this change in investments, he said.

“‘The US should be worried about everyone lightening up - not just China,’ Rogers said.

“Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the paring back is not a concern, CNBC reported.

“‘The truth is that these numbers fluctuate and that there’s a wide range of holders of Treasury debt. What’s been very clear from the market responses over the last two years is that the United States is seen as a major source of quality and a place people run to when they’re uncertain,’ he said.

“Other analysts said the amount of US government debt held by the Chinese is likely to be a larger amount since they also buy anonymously via banks in Switzerland, Britain and other countries, the Associated Press reported.

“‘We do not believe that the Chinese are dumping Treasuries. What they are doing is diversifying the channels through which they make these purchases so that it is much more difficult for the market to ascertain what they are doing,’ said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of GaveKal Dragonomics, a Beijing research firm.”

Source: Ellen Chang, MoneyNews, February 25, 2010.

MoneyNews: Pimco - junk bonds may post double digit returns in 2010
“US high-yield bonds could post investment returns in the high single digits to the low double digits this year after their record 58 percent return in 2009, Pimco, the world’s biggest bond fund, said in a new report.

“With yields still attractive and the risk of a financial system collapse largely in the past, ‘we believe investors can capture attractive yields and excess spread in the high-yield market with relatively low default risk,’ Andrew Jessop, high-yield portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co, said in a note on the company’s website.

“High-yield bonds also look attractive compared with equities, which typically depend on faster growth to perform well at this point in the economic cycle, Jessop said.

“However, Pimco’s forecast is that slower economic growth will become the ‘New Normal’ amid broad deleveraging trends, increased regulation and deglobalization, he said.

“‘In that environment, many investors believe equities could continue to underperform high-yield’ bonds, he said.”

Source: MoneyNews, February 24, 2010.

Bespoke: Country and region ETFs
“Below we highlight the recent action in a number of country and region ETFs. For each ETF, we provide its 5-day price change, its percentage from its 50-day moving average, and its percentage overbought or oversold. An ETF is overbought if it’s trading more than one standard deviation above its 50-day, and the percentage number shown indicates how far the ETF is trading above its overbought level. One standard deviation below represents the oversold level.

“As we highlighted in our prior post, the US has been outperforming emerging markets recently. Where the various country ETFs are trading versus their 50-days shows a similar trend. The S&P 500 tracking SPY ETF is one of just four ETFs highlighted below trading above its 50-day moving average. The only other country ETFs trading above their 50-days are Australia (EWA), Canada (EWC), and Mexico (EWW). All of North America is doing well. If we look at the various regional ETFs (Europe, Emerging Markets, Asia, etc.), all of them are still trading below their 50-days.”

Source: Bespoke, February 22, 2010.

Bespoke: Welcome back - USA back in style
“In the charts below, we show the performance of ETFs which track the S&P 500 (SPY) and the MSCI Emerging Market Index (EEM). The third chart shows the relative strength of emerging markets versus the S&P 500. In the relative strength chart, a rising line indicates that emerging markets are outperforming the US, while a falling line indicates the US is outperforming.

“Based on the performances of both ETFs over the last several years, investors have become conditioned to the theme that when equities are rising, emerging markets typically outperform the US. On the other side of the coin, during periods when equities are weak, US stocks have typically held up better than their emerging market peers. As seen on the relative strength chart, the only period where US stocks meaningfully outperformed emerging markets was during the credit crisis (red line in all three charts).

“The existence of this long-term trend makes recent developments all the more interesting. Since the recent lows in early February, equity markets around the world have all recovered to some degree. However, unlike prior rebounds, emerging markets have been underperforming. In fact, while the major US averages (S&P 500, DJIA and Nasdaq) closed above their 50-day averages on Friday, all four BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) had yet to achieve that milestone. Whether or not this trend fizzles out or is an early warning sign for the global economy is debatable, but in either case, emerging market investors would be wise to be on alert.”

Source: Bespoke, February 22, 2010.

Bespoke: S&P 500 sector stats
“As shown below, Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are currently trading the farthest above their 50-day moving averages of the ten sectors. The other two sectors currently above their 50-days are Industrials and Financials. Below we provide the year-to-date change, % from 50-DMA, dividend yield, P/E ratio, price to sales ratio, and price to book ratio for the various sectors. Across the board, we use red to green as the color code from lowest to highest, but obviously for ratios, the lower the better.

“While it used to have one of the highest yields, the Financial sector currently has the second lowest yield at 1.15%. It also has the highest P/E ratio at 66.44, but it has the lowest price to book at 1.14. Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Telecom have the lowest price to sales ratios, while Technology has the highest. Technology also has the highest price to book.”

Source: Bespoke, February 24, 2010.

Bespoke: Retail sector closes at new bull market high
“Yesterday’s weak Consumer Confidence report has many worried that the consumer is still down in the dumps. If so, no one has told the consumer sectors of the stocks market. As shown below, the S&P 500 Retail sector actually made a new bull market high today. The S&P 500 still has a ways to go to get back to new highs. While the Consumer Confidence report is indicating a weak consumer, the market still seems to be predicting strength from the consumer. If it weren’t for groups like retail, the overall market would be doing worse.”

Source: Bespoke, February 24, 2010.

Bespoke: Percentage of stocks above 50-day moving averages
“As shown below, 55% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. The index itself is still trading below its 50-day, so breadth in this case is strong. Looking at sectors, Energy and Consumer Discretionary have the highest percentage of stocks above their 50-days at 69%. Consumer Staples ranks third at 64%. Technology, Materials, Utilities, and Telecom are the four sectors with readings that are still below 50%.”

Source: Bespoke, February 19, 2010.

Bespoke: Final earnings season stats
“The fourth quarter earnings season came to an end yesterday with Wal-Mart’s report. Below we highlight the final earnings and revenue beat rate for all US companies that reported this earnings season. For the third quarter in a row, 68% of companies beat earnings estimates. The revenue beat rate was really strong this quarter at 70% - the highest reading since Q4 ‘04. Does this put the ’strong bottom line, but weak top line’ bearish argument to rest?”

Source: Bespoke, February 19, 2010.

MoneyNews: Biggs - US, Asian stocks will rally higher
“Stocks have further room to rise, thanks to buoyant global economic growth, says Barton Biggs, managing partner at hedge fund firm Traxis Partners.

“‘There is every reason to believe the US is in a strong recovery, and Asia is in a very strong recovery,’ he says.

“While Europe’s growth has been a bit disappointing, the Greek crisis could actually help economies on the continent by pushing the euro down, he told Bloomberg.

“‘A little weakness in the euro is probably good for European exports and for the European economy.’

“Biggs thinks the European Union is handling the Greek situation properly.

“‘The Europeans sent the right message, saying if you can convince us you’re going to practice some discipline, then we’ll take care of you. And I think that’s going to happen.’

“Biggs also approves of China’s steps to deflate its credit bubble.

“‘The Chinese authorities are doing the right thing in terms of gradually tightening. … In all probability China is going to have a soft landing.’

“So what does all this mean for stocks?

“‘On balance, … I’m pretty bullish here,’ Biggs said.”

Source: Dan Weil, MoneyNews, February 22, 2010.

BCA Research: Hot money flows are driving the US dollar trend
“Recent data shows that speculative flows have been a major driver of the bounce in the dollar, especially versus the euro. ‘Hot money’ positions have now reached levels where marginal dollar buyers will be increasingly scarce. For the dollar’s recovery to persist and to be a genuine cyclical advance, it needs the tailwind of long term capital inflows.

“Foreign flows into US equities and Treasury bonds have accelerated smartly and net sales of agency bonds have come to a halt. But capital flows should be analyzed alongside trade and current account deficit positions. While foreign portfolio flows into the US are improving, the US trade account is deteriorating anew. Moreover, capital outflows by US-based investors have resumed. The sum of net long term portfolio inflows and the trade deficit, a monthly proxy for the basic balance, remains well below the 2002 - 2007 average, which was a period of steady dollar weakness.

“Over the coming months, the cyclical economic recovery and the record low national savings rate should keep the US current account deficit on a widening path. This will make it difficult for the basic balance to improve. Indeed, the healthiest environment for the dollar is when the current account deficit is financed by private sector capital inflows. This is typically a sign of strong US growth and attractive expected returns.

“History shows that whenever the US becomes reliant on foreign monetary authorities, the dollar has been under pressure. Foreign reserve accumulation can prevent a dollar crash, but it has never led to sustainable dollar strength. Bottom line: Trends in long term capital flows suggest that the dollar is not yet in a sustainable bull trend.”

Source: BCA Research, February 25, 2010.

MoneyNews: Soros - euro’s future in question even if Greece saved
“A makeshift assistance should be enough to rescue Greece but bigger problems facing Europe would leave the future of the euro currency in question, billionaire investor George Soros said.

“Writing in the Financial Times, Soros said what the European Union needed was more intrusive monitoring and institutional arrangements for conditional assistance.

“He said a well organized euro bond market was desirable.

“‘A makeshift assistance should be enough for Greece, but that leaves Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Together they constitute too large of a portion of euro land to he helped in this way,’ Soros said.

“‘The survival of Greece would still leave the future of the euro in question.’

“Greece’s deficit swelled to 12.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, way above the EU’s cap of 3 percent.

“Greece has pledged to reduce its budget deficit to 8.7 percent in 2010.”

Source: MoneyNews, February 22, 2010.

Bespoke: Commodity snapshot
“Below we highlight the year-to-date change for ten key commodities. As shown, orange juice has gotten off to a nice start (+13.15%), while natural gas has once again resumed its seemingly perpetual decline (-13.75%). Platinum is the second best performing commodity shown with a gain of 5.34%, followed by gold at +1.59%, and oil at +0.34%. While gold and platinum are up in 2010, silver is down 2.69%.”

Source: Bespoke, February 26, 2010.

Reuters: India seen as potential buyer for IMF gold
“India’s central bank, which has increased its gold holdings to diversify its reserves, looks set to be a buyer again when the International Monetary Fund begins selling 191.3 tonnes of the precious metal amid volatility in major currencies.

“The uncertain outlook for two of the world’s major reserve currencies - the dollar and euro - provides a spur for central banks, including India’s, to buy gold. India’s gold holdings lag those of major economies despite a big purchase in October.

“‘India is no stranger to gold. They are gearing up for growth and want to recalibrate their reserves,’ said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ.

“‘They can’t lift their gold holdings from domestic output, unlike China. And they have shown an appetite to buy in the past.’

“Reserve Bank of India officials declined to comment on their gold plans but some said the central bank considered gold to be a safe investment strategy.

“The IMF said last Wednesday it would soon begin selling the gold in the open market in a phased manner to avoid disrupting the market.

“The sale is part of an IMF programme announced last year to sell a total of 403.3 tonnes of gold, or about one-eighth of its total stock.

“China, with about $1.6 trillion in reserves, is a producer of gold and is unlikely to buy the gold being offered by the IMF, the official China Daily reported on Wednesday.”

Source: Abhijit Neogy and Suvashree Dey Choudhury, Reuters, February 24, 2010.

BusinessWeek: Soros more than doubled gold ETF stake in Q4
“Billionaire George Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC more than doubled its holding in the biggest gold exchange-traded fund in the fourth quarter after bullion advanced 8.9 percent to a record.

“The $25 billion New York-based firm became the fourth-largest holder in the SPDR Gold Trust, adding 3.728 million shares valued at $421 million, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. Its investment was worth about $663 million, the fund’s largest single investment, as of December 31.

“Soros joined China Investment Corp. and central banks including those in China and India in acquiring gold. China Investment, the $300 billion sovereign wealth fund based in Beijing, took a 1.45 million-share stake in the SPDR Gold Trust worth $155.6 million, according to a SEC 13F filing posted on February 5.

“SEC filings are done quarterly, with a 45-day lag, so Soros could have sold some or all of the position since then. Soros, speaking last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, called gold the ‘ultimate asset bubble’ and said the price could tumble, according to a report in the UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper.”

Source: Katherine Burton and Glenys Sim, BusinessWeek, February 17, 2010.

MoneyNews: Credit Suisse - gold set to surge to $1,227
“Credit Suisse analyst David Sneddon says the price of gold is poised to move sharply higher.

“‘If we look at the (rising) momentum chart … it suggests to us that price should follow suit,” he told CNBC.

“‘We think gold is going all the way back up to $1,227.’

“Gold denominated in euros shows a much more bullish position than denominated in dollars, Sneddon says. ‘Gold in euros has moved to an all time high with all the euro weakness that’s been going on,’ Sneddon observes.

“Gold priced in euros reached a record today as European Union finance ministers failed to agree on measures to help Greece reduce its budget deficit, Bloomberg reports.

“The precious metal climbed to a four-week high in New York, before paring gains, on speculation that wider Greek budget deficits will spur demand for the metal as an alternative to holding currency.”

Source: Julie Crawshaw, MoneyNews, February 23, 2010.

Financial Times: China taps more Saudi crude than US
“Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to the US last year sank below 1m barrels a day for the first time in two decades just as China’s purchases climbed above that level, highlighting a shift in the geopolitics of oil from west to east.

“The drop in US demand for oil from the kingdom, traditionally one of its primary sources, is the result of overall lower energy consumption but also greater reliance on imports from Canada and Africa.

“China’s economic growth, meanwhile, is prompting Beijing to buy more Saudi oil, a trend Riyadh has encouraged through refinery joint ventures.

“‘China offers demand security, something that for a long time the oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia have called for,’ said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi in Riyadh. ‘As global demand has been picking up in the east … Saudi Arabia has been looking east.’

“Barack Obama, US president, wants to reduce US dependence on foreign oil and encourage renewable fuels. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia wants stable markets for its oil reserves.

“The divergence will provide the backdrop as Steven Chu, US energy secretary, visits Riyadh on Monday. His agenda reflects Washington’s focus, with an emphasis on technology research rather than oil politics.”

Source: Gregory Meyer, Financial Times, February 21, 2010.

Financial Times: Harsh winter hits European recovery hopes
“Severe winter weather could have hit economic growth significantly in continental Europe, and especially Germany, at the start of this year, dealing another blow to the region’s recovery hopes.

“Disruption in the construction, retail and leisure industries caused by exceptionally low temperatures and persistent snow is likely to have set back further an economic turnround that had already shown signs of losing momentum in the final months of last year - before the bitter weather took grip.

“In Germany, growth in the first quarter of this year could have been reduced 0.3 percentage points, according to Frankfurt-based Commerzbank. January’s weather was the coldest since 1987 and the 12th coldest January since 1900, according to the German weather service.

“Axel Weber, Bundesbank president, told Reuters this month that German gross domestic product ‘could move sideways or even contract slightly in the first quarter’.

“Jörg Krämer, Commerzbank’s chief economist, said, however, that lost business could be made up, and ‘people’s perceptions of the performance of the German economy are driven by the data on manufacturing - that is, excluding construction’.

“Purchasing managers’ indices on Friday showed that German manufacturing ‘grew strongly’ in February, he added.”

Source: Ralph Atkins, Financial Times, February 21, 2010.

Nationwide: House prices slip in the winter snow during February
“The price of a typical UK property fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) in February, ending a strong run of nine consecutive monthly increases. The relatively smoother three month on three month rate of inflation remained positive at +1.6%, though this is down from +2.0% in January and a peak of +3.7% in September 2009. The annual rate of price inflation still managed to increase from 8.6% to 9.2% year-on-year, as this month’s fall was smaller than the 1.5% m/m decline recorded in February 2009. The average price of a typical property sold in the UK during February was £161,320.

“There is evidence from a range of indicators that the market may have lost momentum in early 2010 as the stamp duty holiday ended and house hunters were obstructed by the icy weather. New buyer enquiries dropped sharply in the New Year and there was also an associated drop in the number of new mortgages taken out by homebuyers in January. This drop in demand seems to have fed into agreed prices during February.

“Judging from the fall in retail sales during January, however, the housing market does not appear to be the only sector of the economy to have experienced a setback related to adverse weather and the expiry of economic stimulus measures. At this stage, it is difficult to gauge how much of the drop in housing activity is attributable to one-off factors and therefore whether February’s fall in prices is just a temporary blip or the start of a new trend.”

Source: Nationwide, February 26, 2010.

Nouriel Roubini (Forbes): Easy money in China
“When will Beijing tighten monetary policy?

“A credit-fueled investment boom successfully boosted China’s growth to 8.7% in 2009, but cheap money drove up asset prices as well, especially in property markets. As China’s output gap closes, loose money is now set to become inflationary, particularly if China’s potential growth rate has come down slightly, as we think it has. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has twice hiked banks’ required reserve ratios (RRR) in 2010, following a return to net liquidity reductions through open-market operations in October 2009, but we suspect that the tightening moves have had little effect. China’s monetary policy has shifted toward a neutral stance in recent months, but it will have to tighten further if inflation and the property bubble are to be contained.

“China has not yet started to tighten liquidity significantly, nor has it laid out a clear path for its exit from the extraordinarily loose monetary conditions put in place at the end of 2008. The recent RRR hike, which came into effect on Feb. 25, will drain just over 300 billion renminbi (RMB) in liquidity, but in the first two weeks of February, the PBoC injected a net RMB 508 billion into the banking system through open-market operations to ensure that banks had enough cash on hand for last week’s Chinese New Year holiday. It is widely expected that the bank will drain this liquidity after the holiday, and the RMB300 billion withdrawn through the RRR hike will prove helpful but insufficient in this effort. Tuesday’s RMB 17 billion one-year bill sale suggests that the central bank may be waiting to see the effect of the RRR hike before moving to a more aggressive tightening stance. It will be difficult, however, for the central bank to tighten very much, even if it had the political backing to do so.

“Other sources of liquidity make this task harder. There are RMB 1.2 trillion in central bank bills and repurchase agreements set to expire in the next two months. In March alone, RMB 680 billion in bills will expire, more than double the RMB 290 billion monthly average over the past four months. Banks are already thought to be holding about 1.5% of deposits in additional excess reserves at the PBoC, dulling the impact of the RRR hike even further.

“The political will to tighten monetary conditions looks weak in China, particularly concerning any appreciation of the RMB. On Monday President Hu Jintao headed a Politburo meeting on economic issues that reiterated the ‘active’ fiscal and ‘moderately loose’ monetary policies put in place at the end of 2008. On March 5 Premier Wen Jiabao will present the government’s work plan to the National People’s Congress (nominally China’s highest government authority), likely reiterating this stance.

“Still, we expect the gradual tightening of monetary policy will continue in the coming weeks and months. Rising inflationary pressures are likely to push China’s policymakers to tighten monetary conditions in Q2. This will cause some pain to important interest groups this year, and in our view, policymakers will look to distribute the pain, including by allowing higher consumer inflation.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Nouriel Roubini, Adam Wolfe and Rachel Ziemba, Forbes, February 25, 2010.

Financial Times: Japan exports jump on Asian recovery
“Strong shipments to Asia helped Japan report the biggest increase in exports in almost 30 years in January, underlining the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

“The value of exports increased 40.9 per cent last month from a year earlier, the fastest pace since February 1980, according to the Ministry of Finance. The increase, however, has been helped by a plunge in exports in the same period a year ago as a result of the global financial crisis.

“Shipments to Asia, which accounted for more than half of total exports, were up 68.1 per cent on the previous year while exports to China, its biggest trading partner, rose 79.9 per cent.

“Like other Asian economies, Japan has benefited from the robust recovery of China, which spurred demand for everything from cars to cement.

“In January, shipments of motor vehicles were up 342.8 per cent while the value of auto parts sales rose 156.6 per cent.

“China’s expanding manufacturing sectors also led to strong demand for chemicals from Japan, which jumped 107.5 per cent, and machinery, which rose 68.8 per cent.

“Japan’s trade data came after Taiwan and Thailand reported unexpectedly strong economic growth this week due to solid exports to China. Taiwanese exports to China, its biggest trading partner, rose 45 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter. In Thailand, January’s exports to China grew 94 per cent year-on-year.

“Economists warned that the pace of increase in exports was likely to moderate in the coming months.

“‘Fiscal stimulus programs that supported auto exports in 2009 have now expired in China, the US and EU economies. The boost from inventory adjustment abroad is also beginning to wane,’ said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya at Moody’s Economy.com.

“‘This should result in slower growth in exports, which would be reflective of the weak growth now being seen in advanced economies across the globe,’ he said.

“In January, imports rose for the first time since October 2008, rising 8.6 per cent. Japan posted a trade surplus of Y85.2bn last month.”

Source: Justine Lau, Financial Times, February 24, 2010.

Financial Times: Toyota’s damaged reputation
“Spencer Jakab, Lex columnist of the Financial Times, says Toyota’s slow response to addressing safety problems brought the world’s largest carmaker to its knees.”

Source: Financial Times, February 24, 2010.

Tags: Ben Bernanke, Biggest Banks, Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence Data, Debt Woes, Default Risk, Excess Spread, Fed Fund Rate, Financial Guarantees, Financial Services Committee, German Bank, Government Bonds, High Yield Corporate Bonds, House Financial Services Committee, Investor Optimism, Japanese Yen, Paul Kasriel, Quarter Stock, Risk Aversion, Risk Equities, Sell Offs
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China: Social Stability Through Economic Prosperity

Sunday, February 14th, 2010

By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer

China sees a bubble ahead and is trying to avoid it – is that such a bad thing?

Isn’t this what we expect Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve to do here at home – take clear and decisive action to drain off excess liquidity in the economy before inflation takes hold?

The People’s Bank of China did just that after it saw that 1.4 trillion yuan ($204 billion) worth of bank loans were issued in January, more than the total loaned in the three previous months combined.

For all of 2010, the target loan amount is 7.5 trillion yuan, so it’s easy to see why the government might want to slow the pace a bit.

Forbes’ online headline was “China Tightens the Screws,” but let’s have a little perspective.

Barclays Capital predicts that the 0.5 percent increase in bank reserve rates (from 16.5 percent of deposits to 17 percent) will remove 300 billion yuan from the Chinese economy. That’s only 20 percent or so of the amount loaned in January.

And it’s not like cash is going to dry up – the People’s Bank plans to increase the nation’s M2 money supply by 17 percent this year. January’s M1 money supply report showed a 39 percent increase (chart above). Not exactly a screw-tightening.

China’s CPI rose 1.5 percent in January, which is not extreme, and the chart above from BCA Research shows that real estate prices in terms of per-capita income had not entered a bubble phase as of year-end. But perhaps the more telling number was wholesale prices – up 4.3 percent year-over-year and more than double the increase seen in December. This signals that higher inflation at the consumer level could be around the corner.

Markets are taking a hit based on this news – this shows how important China has become to the world economy. It surpassed Germany as the top exporting country by value at $1.2 trillion, and in January its exports were up 20 percent compared to a year earlier. Even better, its imports were up 85 percent year-over-year.

What we may actually have is a classic bull market in the making – one that climbs the proverbial wall of worry, which suggests that investors buy on corrections. The table below shows the standard deviation (sigma) over 10 years for the main stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong. The weekly sigma for the Shanghai A-share market is plus or minus 5 percent, while its normal quarterly swings can be nearly 25 percent up or down.

It’s nearly impossible to pick exact tops and bottoms – adding to core positions after any correction greater than one sigma is a safer and more prudent way to invest.

Beijing is tending to its economy so it performs over the long term. This is central to its goal of social stability through economic prosperity, and it seems to be working – millions of households join China’s middle class every year.

We all know what can happen when an asset bubble grows huge and then bursts – we’re still recovering from 2007-08.

China is a long-term growth story, and how well it manages that growth will have an impact on all of us. A little caution now should be seen as preventative maintenance, and we all know that when we’re talking about cars or economies, that’s a good thing.

Tags: Bank Loans, Bank Of China, Barclays, Barclays Capital, Ben Bernanke, Chief Investment Officer, China, Chinese Economy, CPI, Decisive Action, Economic Prosperity, Emerging Markets, Excess Liquidity, Federal Reserve, Frank Holmes, Money Supply, Per Capita Income, Social Stability, Target, Wholesale Prices, World Economy, Yuan
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David Rosenberg: “Risk Appetite Back on the Front Burner”

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

David Rosenberg writes today that with the Greece issue on the backburner again, benign economic news from China and Australia, it appears that risk appetite is back on. The dollar and yen are selling off:

Global investor risk appetite is back on the front burner with the U.S. dollar and Yen selling off; oil, copper and gold rallying; bonds trading defensively (actually selling off noticeably in Europe); equities firming across the board with Asian markets up 1.8%, emerging markets up 1%, and the global MSCI index up 0.5% at the moment.

EU policymakers are meeting with an aim to backstop Greece’s financial problems — all we need are headlines like that to pop up every day so that investors can keep on breathing a sigh of relief. And, the data were also Goldilocks in nature. China’s inflation rate fell to 1.5% YoY in January from 1.9% and well below the 2.1% consensus estimate, and hence another reason to breathe a sigh of relief since this alleviates concerns over another round of policy tightening.

Then we had Australian employment come out and ratified the view that the global economy is humming along at a very nice clip — jobs rose 52,700 in January, which was more than triple what the consensus community had penned in and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% in January from 5.5% the prior month.

The concerns from yesterday over what Ben Bernanke had to say that at some point in the future the Fed will have to start snugging liquidity, and do so without initially touching the funds rate but rather widening the spread between it and the discount rate, conducting reverse repos and raising interest rates on commercial bank deficits at the Fed, has totally dissipated. Meanwhile, the problems in the U.S. housing market continue unabated with the number of foreclosure filings (RealtyTrac data) topping the 300k mark for the 11th month in a row in January (nice to see the Obama modification plan at work) — 315,716 to be exact, up 15% from a year earlier. Banks also repossessed more than 87,000 homes last month, down 5% from December but still up 31% from January 2009.

Moreover, for all those pundits believing that companies are about to embark on a capex cycle, they should consider that the data so far for Q4 show that the reporting S&P 500 companies have thus far boosted their cash holdings by 78% YoY, to $1.2 trillion, and have cut their spending budgets to $30 billion from $41.5 billion.

Source: Breakfast with Dave, February 11, 2010 (free registration required)

Tags: Asian Markets, Australian Employment, Backburner, Backstop, Ben Bernanke, China, Consensus Estimate, David Rosenberg, Economic News, Emerging Markets, Global Economy, Global Investor, Gold, Greece Issue, Housing Market, Inflation Rate, Investor Risk, Msci Index, oil, Repos, Risk Appetite, Sigh Of Relief, Unemployment Rate, Yoy
Posted in Markets | No Comments »

In Defense of the Taylor Rule

Thursday, January 14th, 2010

Fighting back against Fed chief Ben Bernanke’s recent statements, John Taylor, Stanford economics professor and the creator of the Taylor Rule, states his case.

Source: CNBC, January 12, 2010.

Tags: Ben Bernanke, Cnbc, Economics Professor, Fed Chief, John Taylor, Stanford Economics, Taylor Rule
Posted in Markets | No Comments »

Words from the (Investment) Wise (November 22, 2009)

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

Stock markets succumbed to a bout of profit-taking last week, sparked by concerns that the rally has overshot the pace of economic recovery. Riskier assets were showing signs of fatigue as the US dollar - the catalyst of many recent moves - stabilized and was perceived to be near its trough (if only short-term in the books of ardent dollar bears).

The greenback, usually the remit of the US Treasury, received support from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech. He noted that the Fed was “attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. Our commitment to our dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the US economy, will help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability.” These comments spurred some buying interest.

Bill King (The King Report) summarized the situation as follows: “For the past few months, bad economic news was perceived to be good news for stocks on the rationale that it ensured more juice. Dollar down, stocks and gold up has been the routine. Are we at an inflection point, where bad economic news is becoming bad news for stocks?”

Source: Ed Stein, Comics.com, November 20, 2009.

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below. With the exception of equities and investment-grade corporate bonds, most asset classes closed higher on the week despite nervousness creeping in before the weekend. Gold bullion touched a record high of $1,152.74 on Thursday and helped platinum, silver, palladium and copper reach fresh peaks for the year.

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of the movements of major global stock markets for the past week and various other measurement periods is given in the table below.

The MSCI World Index (-1.1%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+0.3%) followed different paths last week, resulting in year-to-date gains of 24.5% and an impressive 70.2% respectively. Notwithstanding solid gains since the March lows, no major index has yet been able to reclaim the 2007 pre-crisis peaks.

As far as the US indices are concerned, the Dow Jones Industrial Index eked out a small gain for the week as investors emphasized high quality, but the other major indices all reversed a two-week up-patch. Six of the ten economic sectors closed lower for the week, with Technology (-1.4%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.1%) underperforming,

The year-to-date gains in the US remain firmly in positive territory and are as follows: Dow Jones Industrial Index 17.6%, S&P 500 Index 20.8%, Nasdaq Composite Index 36.1% and Russell 2000 Index 17.1%.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

Top performers among stock markets this week were Bangladesh (+21.3%), Latvia (+4.5%), Kazakhstan (+4.3%), Qatar (+4.1%) and China (+3.8%. At the bottom end of the performance rankings, countries included Ecuador (‑9.3%), Egypt (-7.6%), Greece (-7.1%), Turkey (-7.0%) and Macedonia (‑6.3%).

Of the 98 stock markets I keep on my radar screen, 39% recorded gains (last week 66%), 58% (31%) showed losses and 3% (3%) remained unchanged. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, as supplied by Emerginvest.)

While other benchmark indices have been going from strength to strength, the Japanese Nikkei Dow has been in a downtrend since August and last week recorded a fourth consecutive down-week. The weakness in Japanese stocks coincided with a surge in the price of credit default swaps (CDSs) on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) - under stress of sovereign solvency fears. The chart below shows the significant underperformance of the Nikkei (red line) versus the S&P 500 (green line) - in absolute terms in the top section and on a relative basis (blue line) in the bottom part.

Source: StockCharts.com

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that, as far as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, the winners for the week included iShares Silver Trust (SLV) (+6.2%), PowerShares DB Silver (DBS) (+6.2%), PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) (+4.6%), SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (XME) (+3.8%) and Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) (+3.8%).

At the bottom end of the performance rankings, ETFs included iShares MSCI Turkey Investible Market (TUR) (-8.1%), HOLDRS Merrill Lynch Market Oil Service (OIH) (-4.3%), First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (FCG) (-3.9%), SPDR S&P International Financial Sector (IPF) (-3.9%) and iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) (-3.7%).

“Short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks frantically stockpiled government securities in order to polish their balance sheets for the end of the year,” reported the Financial Times. Three-month T-Bills traded at a yield of -0.03% and six-month Bills fell to 0.12% - the lowest six-month yield since 1985. “Conventional wisdom says it’s year-end window dressing … But why Bills? If you want to park cash, why not place it in some short-term paper with a positive yield? … those pundits that exclaim there is no problem are not correct. If there were no concerns, the cash would not eagerly run to a negative yield vehicle,” observed Bill King.

Signs of heightened risk aversion also came from a widening of the spread of emerging-market bond yields over Treasuries and an increase in credit default swap spreads on corporate bonds and sovereign debt (notably the US and the UK). Risk aversion also resulted in the selling of some commodity-linked currencies.

In other news, a US congressional panel on Thursday approved the Ron Paul-Alan Grayson initiative to open the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions to government audits. The panel approved the amendment to broader legislation to revamp financial rules, but put off a vote on the broader measure.

Also, the Fed announced a reduction in the term of discount window loans from 90 to 28 days, effective January 14, 2010. Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) argued that the need for discount window loans had decreased significantly from the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. “This [Fed's announcement] marks the beginning of a gradual withdrawal of the extraordinary support the Fed has extended to the global financial system as signs of stability have emerged,” she said.

Next, a tag cloud of all the articles I read during the week. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. “Gold” has been rising in prominence for a while, and now occupies the top slot in the media. Words such as “rates”, “dollar”, “prices” and “China” are not far behind.

Back to the stock markets: The S&P 500 Index broke above 1,100 on Monday, but reversed course later in the week and again closed below what was seen as an important resistance level.

The major moving-average levels for the benchmark US indices, the BRIC countries and South Africa (where I am based in Cape Town) are given in the table below. With the exception of the Russell 2000 Index, the indices in the table are all trading above their 50-day moving averages, with all the indices also above their respective 200-day moving averages. However, many European markets have already fallen to below their 50-day lines (not shown on this table, but indicated on the performance table higher up), pointing to possible further weakness.

The October lows are also given in the table. A break below these levels would indicate a reversal of the uptrend since March, i.e. reversing the progression of higher-reaction lows.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

In addition to having retraced 50% of their bear market declines and up-volume recently having been mediocre, the Dow Industrial and S&P 500 are up against significant medium-term downward trendlines. Also, negative divergences are showing up in a number of breadth indicators, often good leading indicators at tops, as discussed below.

The number of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages has declined from 92.6% in September to 56.8%, having made a series of declining tops while the underlying index was making new highs for the move. “This means that less and less stocks have been helping the index move higher, and it’s definitely something that favors the bearish argument,” said Bespoke.

Source: StockCharts.com

The Bullish Percent Index shows the percentage of stocks that are currently in bullish mode as a result of point-and-figure buy signals. The figure is still relatively high at 77.0%, but the indicator appears to be topping out.

Source: StockCharts.com

Richard Russell, 85-year-old writer of the Dow Theory Letters newsletter, said: “I keep thinking that the stock market is on thin ice … I’m still bothered by the fact that this ‘bull market’ never started from an area where stocks were selling below ‘known values’. Every bear market I’ve ever seen has ended with stocks selling below ‘known values’. We never saw anything like that at the October 2008 lows or at the March 2009 lows. For this reason, I continue to think that maybe the final bear market bottom lies ahead. Suspicion, thy name is Russell.”

In case you have missed Adam Hewison’s (INO.com) short technical analysis videos during the past week, click on the following links to access these excellent presentations: S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq, the US dollar, gold and crude oil.

As stated before, share prices have moved too far ahead of economic reality. This calls for a cautious approach in anticipation of the market working off its overbought condition and fundamentals reasserting themselves. I will bide my time while the fundamentals play catch-up.

For more discussion on the economy and financial markets, see my recent posts “Velocity of US money supply at long last edging up“, “2009 Rally vs. 1982 Bull Market“, “Picture du Jour: Plunging dollar erodes non-US investors’ returns“, “WealthTrack: Bruce Berkowitz - golden rules of investing“, and “Donald Coxe - Investment Recommendations (November 2009)“. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of November 20, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

Twitter and Facebook
I regularly post short comments (maximum 140 characters) on topical economic and market issues, web links and graphs on Twitter. For those not doing so already, you can follow my “tweets” by clicking here. You may also consider joining me as a friend on Facebook.

Economy
“Global business confidence is slowly improving. Businesses remain cautious, but sentiment is much better than at the beginning of the year and is consistent with a tentative global economic recovery,” according to the results of the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World by Moody’s Economy.com. “Businesses were much more upbeat … notably optimistic about the economy’s prospects next spring. South American businesses are the most positive, and North Americans generally the most negative.”

Source: Moody’s Economy.com

The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator rose in the fourth quarter of 2009 for the third time in succession, with the economic climate improving in all major economic regions. The improvement was particularly marked in Asia, where the indicator even surpassed its long-term average, but the climate indicator also rose clearly in Western Europe and North America in the fourth quarter. While the recovery of the world economy is driven especially by Brazil as well as India, China and other Asian countries, the economic expectations are now optimistic almost everywhere, with the exception of several countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

Source: Ifo, November 19, 2009.

As far as hard data are concerned, the Japanese gross domestic product grew by 1.2% quarter on quarter between July and September - the biggest quarterly expansion since the first quarter of 2007. A growing trade surplus and stimulus-fuelled private consumption combined to help the world’s second-largest economy recover from its worst postwar recession.

The latest acronym used in the context of economic recovery is “LUV”, indicating an L-shaped economic recovery in Western Europe, a U-shaped improvement in the US and a V-shaped reversal in the BRIC and other emerging countries.

A snapshot of the week’s US economic reports is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

Thursday, November 19
• Index of Leading Economic Indicators underscores US economy will continue to grow
• Labor market data point to stabilizing conditions

Wednesday, November 18
• Higher prices for cars and energy lifted CPI in October
• Housing starts - permits show a more stable trend

Tuesday, November 17
• Fed reduces term of discount window loans
• Factory production slips in October
• Higher prices for food and energy lift wholesale prices, core price index declines

Monday, November 16
• Chairman Bernanke stresses job market and credit conditions; the dollar receives special mention
• October retail sales - noteworthy gains of several components

Bespoke’s “Economic Indicator Diffusion Index” measures the pace at which US indicators are coming in ahead of (or below) expectations over a 50-day period. Interestingly, the Index last week fell into negative territory as data reports failed to live up to (higher) expectations.

Still bearish, Nouriel Roubini (RGE), according to The Money Game - The Business Insider, predicts a slow recovery, quoting the following ten reasons why we will see a U-shaped US recovery:

1. A U-shaped US consumer. Roubini argues against a “V-shaped” recovery, which he says puts too much confidence in this year’s strong equity rally. Eighty percent of the population reacts to home prices, not equity prices, and he forecasts that home prices will fall further.

2. Difficult labor market conditions. Expect a strong second half of 2009 and a sluggish 2010, with growth below potential and continued job losses.

3. Balance sheet recession caused by over-leverage and debt accumulation. There are signs of a massive re-leveraging in the public sector. The cost of maintaining this level of debt will be very high and a drag on the economy.

4. Investment usually is a strong recovery component. But investment will not recover while one third of current capacity is not utilized.

5. A damaged financial system and the related credit crunch. Only half of the estimated $3 trillion global credit losses (IMF recently lowered their estimates) have been recognized so far. Expect more to come, especially in Europe.

6. Home prices said to fall further and commercial real estate bust continuing.

7. Exit strategy: Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Removing fiscal accommodation will constrain a recovery that still appears weak. It has already been determined that it is too early to remove fiscal accommodation, but if it continues it will fuel persistent large budget deficits and lead to inflation.

8. Fall in potential GDP levels and possibly in potential growth.

9. Global imbalances: Over-spenders retrench while over-savers don’t compensate. Fall in demand from countries that tend to be over-spenders (US, UK) has not been neutralized by countries that tend to be over-savers (Japan, Germany).

10. Emerging markets (EMs) fared better, but can’t close the consumption gap. Can China/India be the engine of global growth? No. Can EMs decouple from anemic growth in G3? No. Is the policy response of China/Asia appropriate and sustainable? No. There are not the necessary social safety nets in EM countries, so the motive to save is high. Private demand has to take over and drive growth.

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance, November 20, 2009.

Click here for a summary of Wells Fargo Securities’ weekly economic and financial commentary.

US economic data reports for the week include the following:

Monday, November 23
• Existing home sales

Tuesday, November 24
• GDP
• Case Shiller 20 City Index
• Consumer confidence
• FHFA Home Price Index

Wednesday, November 25
• Personal income and spending
• PCE prices
• Initial jobless claims
• Durable goods orders
• Michigan Sentiment Index
• New home sales

Thursday, November 19
• Thanksgiving Day

The performance chart for various financial markets usually obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online is unfortunately not available this week.

“The recipe for perpetual ignorance is to be satisfied with your opinions and
content with your knowledge,” said Elbert Hubbard, American writer (hat tip: The Kirk Report). Let’s hope the news items and quotes from market commentators included in the “Words from the Wise” review will make a contribution towards continuously shaping new opinions and increasing the knowledge of the readers of Investment Postcards to enable them to make the appropriate investment decisions.

This week, the markets will be closed on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, and on Friday from 13:00 EST.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town (where I am enjoying beautiful summer days before making my annual early-December trip to New York City).

Source: Tom Toles, The Washington Post, November 17, 2009.

Clusterstock: The Journal has the richest readership among print publications
“The Wall Street Journal has the wealthiest readership among print readers according to a new survey from Mediamark Research & Intelligence, by way of BtoB Online.

“This is why Rupert Murdoch is trying to build stronger pay walls around his sites. He wants to protect his premium readership so he can keep charging high ad rates.”

Source: Jay Yarow and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - The Business Insider, November 19, 2009.

Financial Times: Goldman’s PR problem
“Although the $500 million Goldman Sachs has pledged to help small businesses is the largest donation the company has ever made, the firm remains the whipping boy for Wall Street excess, says Francesco Guerrera.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Financial Times, November 18, 2009.

Ifo: Clear improvement in the Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator
“The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator rose in the fourth quarter of 2009 for the third time in succession. The rise in the indicator is the result of both more favourable expectations for the coming six months as well as less negative assessments of the current economic situation. The recovery of the world economy is driven especially by the dynamic development in Brazil as well as in India, China and other Asian countries.

“The economic climate improved in all major economic regions. The improvement was particularly marked in Asia, where the indicator even surpassed its long-term average. Also in Western Europe and North America the climate indicator rose clearly in the fourth quarter of 2009. The economic expectations are now very optimistic almost everywhere, with the exception of several countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

“In contrast, the current economic situation is still assessed as decidedly unfavourable in all major regions, although these assessments clearly improved over the previous quarter. The appraisals of the current economic situation are particularly negative in the euro area, North America, Central and Eastern Europe and Russia.

“The inflation expectations for 2009, on a worldwide average, are clearly lower than the inflation estimate for the previous year (2.5% compared to 5.4%). According to the expectations of the World Economic Survey (WES) participants, prices will increase only slightly in the course of the coming six months.

“The short-term interest rates will increase again in the coming six months for the first time in more than a year, in the opinion of the WES experts. In accord with the more favourable economic outlook, the WES experts anticipate that the long-term interest rates are also likely to increase in the coming six months in most countries.

“An increasing number of WES experts regard the euro as overvalued. The other major world currencies, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound, are now seen as properly valued, on average.”

Source: Ifo, November 19, 2009.

Bill King (The King Report): Sovereign solvency fears
“Over the past several weeks, credit default swaps (CDS) on sovereign debt have rallied sharply. Investors increasingly fear that the massive amounts of sovereign debt will not be repaid. The following CDS chart on JGBs is alarming.

“While the surge in CDS on Japanese debt has retrenched over the past week, the CDS on US and UK debt have rallied … Our guess is the market fears another downturn will lead to more stimulus and more governments absorbing crappy paper and risk from the private sector … The last crisis flamed on fears of bank and major corporate solvency. The next crisis could be characterized by sovereign solvency fears.”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, November 18, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: China’s blunt talk for Obama
“China’s top banking regulator issued a sharp critique of US financial management only hours before President Barack Obama commenced his first visit to the Asian giant, highlighting economic and trade tensions that threaten to overshadow the trip.

“Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said that a weak US dollar and low US interest rates had led to ‘massive speculation’ that was inflating asset bubbles around the world. It has created ‘unavoidable risks for the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging economies’, Mr. Liu said. The situation is ’seriously impacting global asset prices and encouraging speculation in stock and property markets’.

“Early Monday, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce added further criticism of the Obama administration, targeting recent measures by Washington against Chinese exports. ‘We’ve always known the US and the West as free market economies. But now we’re seeing a protectionist side,’ the spokesman, Yao Jian, told a monthly press briefing. Mr. Yao also rejected criticism of China’s currency policy, saying the yuan’s exchange rate has little to do with trade imbalances with the US and that China should keep the exchange rate stable.

“The Chinese comments signaled that Mr. Obama - on the third leg of a four-country Asian tour - can expect blunt talk from Chinese leaders on the economy. The issue could complicate his broad agenda in China that also includes efforts to extract new commitments on climate change and to encourage them to take a more active role to defuse nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Jonathan Weisman, Aaron Back and Andrew Browne, The Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2009.

Financial Times: Obama in China
“Barack Obama and Hu Jintao pledge to work together on a long list of pressing international issues during talks in the Chinese capital Beijing.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Financial Times, November 17, 2009.

Reuters: China, US eye pact to help troubled banks
“Chinese and US regulators are negotiating a pact aimed at encouraging Chinese financial institutions to buy into small and medium-sized banks in the United States, bankers briefed on the plan said on Tuesday.

“Chinese bankers have complained that it’s been difficult for them to set up branches or invest in banks in the world’s leading economy, due partly to US regulators’ tough supervision and strict approval process for financial deals.

“But the global financial landscape has been revamped by the credit crisis, and cash-rich Chinese banks are now bigger players on the world scene and are scouting around for investment targets.

“To illustrate the global shake-down, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is now the world’s biggest bank by market value, while Citigroup, once the world’s No.1 bank, is worth the same as a second-tier commercial bank in China.

“Two senior Chinese bankers said they had been invited this year by US officials, investment bankers and financial advisers to look at several potential investments in US banks, mostly in financial trouble.

“‘The trend is already there,’ said one Chinese banker. ‘Now they’re going to make this into an agreement to show there’s a change in official attitude toward Chinese investments in the US banking system,’ said the banker, who declined to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the matter.”

Source: George Chen, Reuters, November 17, 2009.

Financial Times: Geithner defends record to Congress
“Tim Geithner launched a fierce defence of his record as US Treasury secretary on Thursday as Republicans said his policies had failed and he should resign.

“In an unusually testy Congressional hearing, Mr Geithner told his Republican critics that he refused to take responsibility for ‘the legacy of crises you’ve bequeathed this country’.

“Kevin Brady, senior House Republican on the joint economic committee, told Mr Geithner he was a failure. ‘Unemployment skyrocketed … The deficit is becoming frightening … We are reduced to begging China to buy our debt and getting lectures from other nations on our financial disarray,’ he said. ‘The public has lost all confidence in your ability to do the job.’

“Mr Geithner shot back: ‘I agree with almost nothing in what you’ve said.’

“Although the US economy has started growing again, last month the unemployment rate breached 10% and is expected to stay high. With investment banks returning to profit but ordinary people still suffering, Republicans are increasing their attacks on the Obama administration over the economy.

“The Treasury secretary faced an array of questions and criticism during the hearing, which was ostensibly about plans to reform financial regulation. On that topic, Mr Geithner urged Congress to press ahead with legislation to reform the US regulatory system.

“He said reform would help to avoid a situation such as the government bail-out of insurance behemoth AIG in the future. He was criticised for his role in that rescue as then-president of the New York Federal Reserve.

“‘The United States of America … came into this crisis without anything like the basic tools countries need to contain financial panics,’ he said. ‘Coming into AIG, we had basically duct tape and string.’

“Mr Geithner also faced complaints that China was unfairly undervaluing its currency, the renminbi.

“He replied that he was confident Beijing would soon move to flexible rates. ‘They understand they need to do it, I think they want to do it, and I’m quite confident they will do it,’ he said.

“He also defended the ‘extraordinary’ actions taken to stabilise the economy and said the troubled asset relief programme was bringing good returns to US taxpayers.”

Source: Sarah O’Connor and Alan Rappeport, Financial Times, November 19, 2009.

Mark Felsenthal (Reuters): House panel OKs plan to open Fed policy to audits
“A US congressional panel on Thursday approved a measure to open the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions to government audits, a surprise blow to the central bank’s efforts to shield its independence and a signal of frustration with the central bank.

“The provision, co-sponsored by Republican Representative Ron Paul and Democrat Alan Grayson, would allow a congressional watchdog agency to conduct a broad review of the US central bank’s policy and lending. Fed officials have strongly opposed it, saying it would cast doubt on the central bank’s independence from political pressure.

“The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee approved the amendment to broader legislation to revamp financial rules. The panel put off a vote on the broader measure.

“House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, who opposed the Paul-Grayson measure, predicted it would be revisited when financial reform legislation is debated by the House.

“‘I think it’s going to be seen as weakening the independence of monetary policy with consequent negative implications,’ he told reporters after the vote. ‘I think people will be worried about the impact on the dollar and on interest rates, and I think that one may be revisited when we get to the floor.’

“However, Paul’s measure has earned support from more than half of the members of the House.

“The amendment is a further congressional slap at the US central bank after a Senate regulatory overhaul proposed stripping the Fed of its regulatory authority. Some lawmakers fault the Fed for failing to anticipate or prevent the financial crisis that pitched the economy into deep recession, while others are angry at its extensive emergency support for financial institutions.

“The Fed objected to the provision, saying it could raise financial market questions about its independence and could result in higher long-term interest rates as investors worry about inflation risks.”

Source: Mark Felsenthal, Reuters, November 20, 2009.

Bespoke: Government spending - where does it end?
“On Thursday, the Treasury Department released its monthly budget statement which summarizes revenues and spending for the month of October. After one looks at these figures, it’s hard to believe that they are accurate, but unfortunately they are. Unless you have been living under a rock for the last several years, you know that our Federal Government has been spending money at rates that would make even a sub-prime borrower blush. But even taking this into account, these numbers are still startling, if not scary.

“During the month of October, the Federal Government spent $2.30 for every dollar of revenue it took in. Given the fact that this is the fifth time this year that the ratio has exceeded two, one might think that this type of deficit spending is commonplace. However, going back to 1970, October was only the 13th month that the ratio ever exceeded two. Prior to 2008, the ratio exceeded two on average once every 6.5 years. In the last two years, the ratio has exceeded two on average once every three months!

“The charts below highlight the twelve-month rolling totals of government revenues and outlays. It doesn’t take an accountant to see that these two lines are moving in the wrong direction. Given the fact that nobody thinks Washington is going to reign in spending, the only way to solve the gap is through higher revenues (raising taxes) or increasing the money supply. Is it any surprise that barely a day goes by where the dollar doesn’t trade down in value?”

Source: Bespoke, November 16, 2009.

MoneyNews: Obama admits spending binge risks plunge into second recession
“President Barack Obama gave his sternest warning yet about the need to contain rising US deficits, saying on Wednesday that if government debt were to pile up too much, it could lead to a double-dip recession.

“With the US unemployment rate at 10.2%, Obama told Fox News his administration faces a delicate balance of trying to boost the economy and spur job creation while putting the economy on a path toward long-term deficit reduction.

“His administration was considering ways to accelerate economic growth, with tax measures among the options to give companies incentives to hire, Obama said in the interview with Fox conducted in Beijing during his nine-day trip to Asia.

“‘It is important though to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the US economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession,’ he said.”

Source: MoneyNews, November 18, 2009.

The Washington Post: Bailout program could be extended
“The Obama administration is poised to extend the life of the highly unpopular $700 billion financial bailout and, to display a commitment to fiscal responsibility, is planning to use much of the leftover funds to reduce the national debt, government sources said.

“Administration officials are grappling with how best to announce the extension of the Troubled Assets Relief Program at a time when the economy is struggling and the unemployment rate is at its highest point in 26 years. The officials are hoping that by putting roughly $200 billion toward paying down the $12 trillion national debt, they could mitigate the political fallout, the sources said.

“No final decision about the fate of the bailout has been made, and officials are keenly aware that their preferred course contains risks. Officials worry that lawmakers, seeking to fund their own projects, may try to tap any large sum of unused money set aside for debt reduction, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the internal deliberations were private.

“Congressional Democrats are already eyeing the unexpended bailout cash as a source of funding for new efforts to combat soaring unemployment. Rep. John B. Larson (D-Conn.), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, said lawmakers could send an important message about their priorities by taking money from the financial bailout program and redirecting it to pay for road and bridge projects and other measures meant to create jobs.”

Source: David Cho, Michael Shear and Lori Montgomery, The Washington Post, November 19, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Chairman Bernanke stresses job market, credit conditions and dollar
“The Chairman spoke at length about credit conditions and the labor market. In his opinion, impaired financial market conditions have led to banks holding larger buffers compared to the situation prior to the onset of the current crisis. In addition, a shaky economic environment marked with high loan losses and uncertainty about regulatory capital standards are factors restraining the growth of credit. The impaired market for securitization is another aspect that is contributing to the reduction of credit availability.

“The main message is that the credit machine needs to function for self-sustained economic activity. There is a minor improvement to note on this front. Loan extensions remain noticeably weak but for the week ended November 4, the decline was smaller (6.5%) compared with recent weeks. It appears that a trough has been established. Additional improvements with positive readings will be necessary to declare the coast is clear.

“Bernanke also spoke extensively about the labor market and more or less reiterated the well known aspects of the current labor market conditions. He raised the issue of a ‘jobless recovery’ and highlighted the reasons for the likelihood of this situation.

“The explicit mention of the dollar was the most important departure from earlier speeches. He noted that the Fed is ‘attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. Our commitment to our dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the US economy, will help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability.’ Historically, the dollar is the domain of the Treasury Department.

“The inflationary implications of the weak dollar are restrained partly by the enormous slack in the economy. However, prices of imported goods excluding fuel have risen for three straight months and commodity prices have also risen. Although inflation expectations have risen in recent days, the overall picture is that of a contained situation. Inflation expectations will be watched closely in the months ahead.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Fed reduces term of discount window loans
“The Fed announced a reduction in the term of discount window loans to 28 days from 90 days as of January 14, 2010. The Fed lengthened the maturity of discount window loans on August 17, 2007 to 30 days from a maximum term of overnight and extended it further to 90 days on March 16, 2008.

“As seen in the chart below, the need for discount window loans has reduced significantly from the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This marks the beginning of a gradual withdrawal of the extraordinary support the Fed has extended to the global financial system as signs of stability have emerged.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 17, 2009.

Financial Times: Short-term US interest rates turn negative
“Short-term US interest rates turned negative on Thursday as banks frantically stockpiled government securities in order to polish their balance sheets for the end of the year.

“The development highlighted the continuing distortions in the financial system more than a year after Lehman Brothers’ failure triggered a global crisis.

“The growing appetite for short-term government debt reflects an effort by banks to present pristine year-end balance sheets to regulators and investors - an effort known as ‘window dressing’ on Wall Street, analysts said.

“With the Federal Reserve maintaining an overnight target rate of zero to 0.25 per cent, investors are demonstrating a willingness to completely forgo interest income - or even to take a small loss - to own securities that are seen as safe.

“Ted Wieseman, economist at Morgan Stanley, said there was a ’squeeze in the [Treasury] bill sector’ that was ‘intensifying as investors stash money over year-end’.

“The scramble has been exacerbated by the fact that all leading US banks, many sitting on big trading profits, will this year close their books at the same time - at the end of December. In past years, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported annual results in November.

“‘People are setting up for year-end early, and once you see bill rates going down quickly, it pulls in more buying,’ said Gerald Lucas, senior investment adviser at Deutsche Bank.

“On Thursday, Treasury bills maturing in January traded below zero per cent, traders said. Three-month bills traded at 1 basis point and six-month bills fell to a record low of 13 basis points - compared with 14 basis points at the height of the crisis last year.”

Source: Michael Mackenzie, Financial Times, November 20, 2009.

MoneyNews: Bullard - shrinking reserves key to exit plan
“A senior Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday the US central bank may start tightening financial conditions by adjusting its extensive asset purchase programs rather than raising interest rates.

“‘The market’s focus on interest rates is disappointing, given quantitative easing,’ St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said in a presentation to a group of bankers. “Markets should be focusing on quantitative monetary policy rather than interest rate policy,” he said.

“‘The main challenge for monetary policy going forward will be how to adjust the asset purchase program without generating inflation while interest rates are near zero,’ Bullard said.

“Medium-term inflation hinges on what the Fed will do with this program, he said.

“Bullard said financial market focus on interest rates may in part be misplaced because the Fed has in the past waited two and a half to three years after the end of a recession before raising rates.

“‘Assuming that the (Fed) would behave the same way that it’s behaved in the past, this could mean that the (Fed) would not start increasing rates until early 2012,’ he said.

“However, the Fed will take into account the criticism that it fueled a housing bubble that contributed to the crisis by holding interest rates too low for too long in the early part of the decade, he said.”

Source: MoneyNews, November 18, 2009.

Bill King (The King Report): Getting more bearish on US economy
“Goldie’s Jan Hatzius is getting more bearish on the economy by the day.

“‘Despite the sharp pickup in real GDP growth since the dark days of early 2009, we estimate that real final demand - net of the boost from fiscal policy - is still contracting at an annual rate of around 1% in the second half of 2009. Although we expect a moderate recovery of around 2% by the second half of 2010, such a 3-percentage-point improvement would be insufficient to offset the loss of 4-5 percentage points of stimulus from fiscal policy and the inventory cycle. Hence, real GDP growth is likely to slow anew to a below-trend pace.

“‘The significantly stronger recovery that is now anticipated by a number of forecasters would require a much sharper acceleration in underlying final demand, along the lines of prior recoveries from deep recessions. But this ignores some key differences between the current situation and the aftermath of prior slumps. In particular, bank credit is tighter, the personal saving rate is much lower, the labor market is less cyclical, there is much more excess housing supply, and state and local budget gaps are deeper.’”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, November 17, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading Economic Index underscores US economy will continue to grow
“The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3% in October, after a 1.0% increase in the prior month. On a year-to-year basis, the leading index moved up 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009 (based on October data). The year-to-year change in the leading index has held in the positive territory for two consecutive quarters. The historical record of the leading index supports expectations of continued growth of real GDP in the near term.

“In October, six of the ten components of the leading index advanced - average manufacturing workweek, stock prices, interest rate spread, jobless claims, real money supply and orders of durable consumer goods. The remaining four components - orders on non-defense capital goods, vendor deliveries, building permits and consumer expectations - fell in October.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 19, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Factory production slips in October
“Industrial production inched up 0.1% in October mainly due to a 1.6% increase in production at the nation’s utilities. Utilities and mining (-0.2%) components make up a small part of the total industrial production. Excluding these components, factory production slipped 0.1% in October after posting strong gains for three consecutive months.

“The weakness was in the durable goods component (-0.4%), while production of non-durable posted a small increase. Within durables, the gain in primary metals (+3.6%) was more than offset by declines in autos (-1.6%), furniture (-1.9%), electrical equipment (-0.9%) and computer and electronic products (-0.3%). Stepping back from these details, the small decline in factory production is not a severe setback. The process of recovery will be marked with some monthly readings showing declines. More importantly, the projected trajectory of factory activity in the coming months is positive.

“The operating rate of the nation’s industries moved up to 70.7% in October from 70.5% in the prior month. The capacity utilization rate of the factory sector held steady at 67.6% in October, which is noticeably higher than the 65.1% record low mark of June 2009.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 17, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Labor market data point to stabilizing conditions
“Initial jobless claims held steady at 505,000 during the week ended November 14. Continuing claims, which lag initial claims by one week, declined 39,000 to 5.611 million. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

“Total claims which include recipients under the special programs, Extended Benefits Program and Emergency Unemployment Compensation Program, were 9.81 million during the week ended October 31, down from 10 million during the week ended October 3. Total continuing claims have held below 10 million for four straight weeks implying that although hiring is not advancing, job losses have stabilized.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 19, 2009.

Clusterstock: The hires-and-fires gap brings good news for job seekers
“The unemployment rate is still miserable, but it’s not entirely bad news - at least if you find clever ways of slicing and dicing the data.

“Today’s chart measures the percentage difference between new hires and separations (people leaving a job). As you can see, the gap yawned late last year, as way more people left the workforce than were hired. But it’s coming back, getting closer to the 0% mark (even). And then of course, we just need to create a lot of jobs.”

Source: Vince Veneziani and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - The Business Insider, November 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Housing starts - permits show a more stable trend
“Total housing starts fell 10.6% to an annual rate of 529,000, the lowest since April. The 35% plunge in construction of apartment building to a new record low of 53,000 units brought down the overall reading. The 6.9% drop in single-family starts to 476,000 is the lowest since May. Uncertainty about the extension of the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers is seen as one of the reasons for the weakness in home construction. If this is accurate, a rebound is likely in November because the tax credit program has been extended to April 2010.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 19, 2009

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): October retail sales - noteworthy gains of several components
“Retail sales rose 1.4% in October, after downward revisions of retail sales in September (-2.3% vs. earlier estimate of -1.5%). The downward revision of retail sales in September combined with the widening of the trade deficit in September implies a lower estimate of third quarter real GDP (+3.5%).

“In October, retail sales excluding building materials (part of residential investment expenditure in GDP), autos (unit sales are consistent with auto spending component of consumer spending in GDP) and gasoline (excluded due to volatility of prices) advanced 0.5% after strong readings in August and September. In addition, retail sales excluding, building materials, autos, and gasoline rose 1.4% in October, the first year-to-year gain since October 2008. The main point is that consumer spending is recovering gradually.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 16, 2009.

Bill King (The King Report): Sharp contraction in consumer credit
“John Williams: ‘As shown in the following graph, consumer credit outstanding fell at a 4.8% annualized rate, the deepest annual decline of the post-World War II era:

“‘The year-to-year contraction in September commercial and industrial (C&I) loans also set a post-World War II record decline, and October’s drop will be even worse. Based on 28 days of reporting, October C&I loans fell by about 16.2% year-to-year, following annual contractions of 10.6% in September and 7.1% in August.’”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, November 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Higher prices for cars and energy lifted CPI in October
“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in October after a 0.2% increase in the prior month. The details of the October CPI report indicate that higher prices for cars and energy were the predominant gains. The energy price index moved up 1.5% in October, with higher gasoline prices accounting for a large part of the increase. Food prices inched up only 0.1% following a 0.1% decline in the prior month. Year-to-date the CPI has risen at annual rate of 2.7% and from a year ago it fell 0.2%.

“The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in October. According to the BLS, higher prices for used and new cars and light trucks were responsible for 90% of the increase in the core CPI. Given the soft demand for cars and shaky balance sheets of households, it is unlikely that higher prices will stick in the months ahead.

“From a year ago, the core CPI increased 1.7% and is inching closer to the Fed’s threshold of tolerance (2.0%). However, the concentration of the gains in prices among two components - energy and autos - suggests that we need to wait for more evidence before we can confirm that inflation is problematic. Inflation will continue to rank low among the Fed’s priorities compared with economic growth and financial stability in the near term.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 19, 2009.

MoneyNews: Sprott - hyperinflation on the way
“Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, says quantitative easing is ‘just debasing the currency, which will eventually lead to hyperinflation’.

“The recent extension of the homeowner credit and giving corporations loss carry-backs while paying unemployment benefits for an additional 20 weeks, augur an inflationary if not a hyperinflationary scenario, Sprott notes.

“‘I really think that once the Fed has spent the $1.25 trillion buying the GSE paper that we might yet see another level of quantitative easing in the States,’ he says.

“Sprott does see one upside for investors, though: ‘You can just feel the momentum in gold - it’s picking up dramatically’ and so too are prospects for a plethora of little-known small and mid-cap gold stocks.

“‘There aren’t too many choices when you’re in debt to the level that the US government is,’ Sprott told The Gold Report.

“‘One way of calculating it says there’s $72 trillion of debt and another way suggests it is $100 trillion. It’s almost academic which calculation you use; it’s just an overwhelmingly serious problem … it certainly seems that (the Obama administration) is going to try to spend their way out of it,’ Sprott says.”

Source: Julie Crawshaw, MoneyNews, November 19, 2009.

Clusterstock: An inflation warning sign
“In a speech on Monday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said he did not see inflationary threats on the horizon.

“Perhaps that is because he’s looking in the wrong place. The prices of crude goods, those in the earliest stages of production, have been inflating for most of the year. The willingness to pay more for crude goods probably indicates that businesses are predicting selling finished goods at higher prices. In other words, this is a strong indicator of inflationary expectations.”

Source: John Carney and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - The Business Insider, November 17, 2009.

Financial Times: “Sweet spot” of low interest rates
“Treasury bonds look to be pricing in a ’sweet spot’ of exceptionally low interest rates and benign inflation - but yields are likely to rise sharply next year, says Manoj Pradhan, global fixed income economist at Morgan Stanley.

“‘Our proprietary model puts the current fair value for 10-year Treasury bond yields at 3.3% - bang in line with actual yields,’ he says.

“But Mr Pradhan warns that significant uncertainty still surrounds inflation expectations. ‘It is hard to find investors who believe inflation over the medium to long run will be precisely in line with central bank targets.

“‘And even if you believe that inflation will play fair, investors seem to be receiving no compensation for the macroeconomic risks that have surely made an indelible impression over the past two years, or for the fiscal risks that abound.’

“Furthermore, Mr Pradhan says, the sanguine expectations in the US Treasury market have put pressure on yields elsewhere, making it difficult for early-hiking central banks to find policy traction through higher bond yields.

“‘We expect US 10-year yields to rise to 5.5% by the end of 2010 - an increase of 220 basis points that outstrips the 137 basis-point increase in the Fed funds rate expected over the same horizon. This bear steepening of the curve in 2010 may well be preceded by slightly lower 10-year yields in 2009.’”

Source: Manoj Pradhan, Financial Times, November 19, 2009.

BCA Research: Regional fixed income - allocation in a changing policy environment
“In some developed countries, a new interest rate cycle is underway. This development will be the main factor driving relative bond yields for the foreseeable future.

“In countries where the effects of the credit crunch were less severe, central bankers are becoming more confident that their economies are on solid footing. In some instances, policymakers have opted to begin renormalizing interest rates, while others are openly discussing ‘exit’ strategies. Correspondingly, the opportunities that will present in the government bond market in the coming months will take advantage of the relative timing and speed of this process. Monetary policy will tighten fastest in those countries where the recession was mildest (like in Australia) or where the boost to growth from resource-related prices is highest (as is the case in Norway).

“Our global fixed income strategists expect commodity-country bonds to continue to underperform. In contrast, the euro area and Japanese bond markets will outperform as their respective central banks have the most flexibility to stay on hold for the foreseeable future. The Fed will also remain on hold for an extended period, although a poor valuation starting point and increased debt issuance will act as a weight on Treasurys.”

Source: BCA Research, November 20, 2009.

Financial Times: Corporate bonds - all good things come to an end
“Credit markets are likely to offer lower returns in 2010 - although heightened volatility and increased supply should ensure an interesting year, says Stephen Dulake, head of credit research at JPMorgan.

“He notes that 2009 was a year when you could buy high-quality corporate debt and achieve equity-like returns. ‘However, all good things come to an end and next year we forecast high grade returns of around 3%, and coupon-like 7-8% returns for high yield.’

“But Mr Dulake says that low return does not necessarily equate to low volatility. ‘For example, we see the potential for risk markets to swing from pillar to post as investors oscillate from fearing deflation to fearing inflation,’ he says.

“He also argues that supply is likely to be greater than many expect.

“‘Our analysis suggests we could see investment grade companies issue €200 billion of bonds in 2010. This is double the average of the past decade and is a direct consequence of the sea-change in corporate liability management of the past 12-18 months. We expect this shift away from loans and toward bonds to be a multi-year process.

“‘Furthermore, a meaningful pick-up in merger and acquisition activity could also lead to an increase in supply.

“‘In high yield, we expect issuance of €35 billion in 2010, which would represent a record year and would in part be driven by leveraged corporates refinancing loans.’”

Source: Stephen Dulake, Financial Times, November 17, 2009.

Bespoke: YTD sector performance
“One would think that in a year where the average stock in the S&P 500 is outperforming the index by a wide margin (40.3% vs 22.9%), that most sectors would also be outperforming the overall index. Yet with the S&P 500 trading to a new high for the year, only three out of ten sectors are actually outperforming the index in 2009. Through this morning, Technology (55.1%), Materials (43.5%), and Consumer Discretionary (36.5%) are the three best performing sectors this year, while Telecom Services (-4.1%), Utilities (1.6%), and Consumer Staples (12.7%) have lagged the most.”

Source: Bespoke, November 16, 2009.

MoneyNews: Whitney - more bearish now than in a year
“Meredith Whitney says she hasn’t been as bearish as she is now in a year.

“‘I look at the board, and every stock from Tiffany to Bank of America to Caterpillar is up,’ Whitney told CNBC.

“‘But there’s no fundamental rooting for why these names are up, particularly in the consumer space.’

“Moreover, Whitney says she has never seen so much consumer credit contraction.

“‘You didn’t see this much even in the Great Depression,’ she says.

“‘$1.5 trillion in credit cards has been pulled from the system.’

“‘There’s nowhere to hide at this point.’

“Whitney expects banks will do another round of capital raising because the sector is inadequately capitalized at present and foresees ‘another leg down’ in the residential real estate market when mortgage rates and prices begin moving lower.

“Whitney still sees a much bigger risk related to residential mortgage exposure, rather than commercial, and advises investors to sit on their cash for a while because everything’s too expensive right now.

“However, though she expects a double-dip recession, Whitney says the second half of the ‘W’ will not be as severe.”

Source: Julie Crawshaw, MoneyNews, November 18, 2009.

Bloomberg: Mobius expects 40% BRIC stocks gain, says buy on dips
“Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings.

“Mobius, chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said he’s increasing holdings in all emerging markets, with particular focus on the four biggest developing-nation economies collectively known as the BRICs.

“‘BRIC countries are really at the top’ of our favorite holdings, Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion of emerging-market assets, said in an interview at the sidelines of a press conference in Istanbul today. ‘You can see BRIC countries have been best performing.’

“Russia’s RTS Index has surged 135 percent this year, the biggest gainer among 89 equity gauges worldwide, and Brazil, China and India rallied more than 75 percent as the global economic recovery spurred demand for commodity exports. While developed countries may shrink 4 percent this year, emerging markets as a whole may avoid a contraction with zero change in gross domestic product, Mobius said.

“While a ’sudden violent correction’ is likely in a bull market, investors should be ‘ready to buy’, Mobius told reporters.

“The biggest growth areas in emerging markets are in the consumer and commodity industries, with China and Brazil offering among the cheapest stocks worldwide, Mobius said.”

“The MSCI gauge of 22 developing countries is valued at 20 times reported earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI China Index trades at 17.7 times profit, while the MSCI Brazil Index is valued at 18.2 times earnings. That compares with a price-earnings multiple of about 30 for the MSCI All Country gauge of developed and emerging economies. The S&P 500 is valued at 22 times profit of the companies in the index.”

Source: Seda Sezer and Tian Huang, Bloomberg, November 18, 2009.

Bespoke: Checkup on China and the Baltic Dry
“China’s Shanghai Composite stumbled significantly during the late summer, but it has come back nicely with a gain of 24.5% off of its lows at the end of September. While its rally has been impressive, Shanghai has yet to take out its 2009 highs made in early August. At the same time, the cost to ship goods as measured by the Baltic Dry Index has increased 115% since its lows in September and has made a new 2009 high. Traders like to relate the Baltic Dry Index to how things are going in China, so with the Baltic Dry charging to new highs, will the Shanghai Composite follow?”

Source: Bespoke, November 19, 2009.

Times Online: Dollar carry trade could herald the next global crisis, analysts warn
“The global economy could be poised for the creation of a potentially explosive dollar carry trade, analysts said yesterday.

“The trade allows investors to borrow dollars at near-zero interest rates, which they use to fund asset-buying sprees around the world, and has been possible since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year and the extreme monetary response to its aftermath.

“The warning was issued at the Apec summit of Asia Pacific leaders in Singapore and came after a variety of assets started to display bubble-like patterns of inflation: everything from gold and copper to fine wine and Hong Kong penthouses.

“As the carry trade grows more popular it could add more downward pressure to the already falling dollar, particularly if the ‘carried’ - borrowed - dollars are immediately sold to buy non-dollar denominated assets in China or Singapore.

“Analysts believe that it was the sudden unwinding of the yen carry trade - immense pockets of investment funded by cheaply borrowed yen - that sent the destructive ripples of the Wall Street crisis around the world last autumn.

“Carry trades, which essentially mean borrowing at low rates to fund higher return assets, make sense until markets turn sour and exchange rates shift too violently. At that point, the rush for the exit wildly exacerbates any crash. A collapse of the dollar carry trade has the potential to be particularly harmful because of its scale.

“While a few prominent financial figures have already warned of the threat of an emerging dollar carry trade, governments have steered clear of commenting on the issue until now.

“But talking on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific summit, Donald Tsang, chief executive of Hong Kong, admitted openly that the dollar carry trade had started to spread and that the prospect ’scared’ him.”

Source: Leo Lewis, Timesonline.co.uk, November 14, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: It’s time to get dollar bullish
“After a dramatic decline in the USbcurrency, investors should consider going long the dollar via an ETF, says Barrons.com’s Bob O’Brien.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2009.

Financial Times: IMF chief urges stronger renminbi for global balance
“A stronger Chinese renminbi is part of the reforms that Beijing needs to implement to increase domestic consumption and help ease global imbalances, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

“Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, said the countries at the heart of global imbalances needed to take various measures to ease them.

“In the case of China, that means an increasing emphasis on domestic demand, especially private consumption, Mr Strauss-Kahn said in remarks prepared for a financial conference in Beijing.

“‘A stronger currency is part of the package of necessary reforms,’ he said. ‘Allowing the renminbi and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labour share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment.’

“Mr Strauss-Kahn noted that Chinese authorities were already taking steps to boost household consumption, including health care reforms.

“‘But more can be done to secure a lasting, structural shift towards consumption, by expanding the scope of social policies, moving ahead on financial sector reform, and undertaking corporate governance reforms,’ he said.

“Conversely, countries with large current account deficits need to increase savings, and for many of them, including the United States, fiscal consolidation must take priority, he said.

“Overall, the global economy appears to have turned a corner, Mr Strauss-Kahn said, but the biggest risk to the outlook is a premature withdrawal of policy stimulus.”

Source: Financial Times, November 16, 2009.

BCA Research: Asian currencies - near-term risks, but structurally sound
“There are strong long-term trends supporting further appreciation in Asian currencies, although a near-term pullback is likely if Chinese authorities do not allow the renminbi to appreciate. Valuations vary, but these currencies tend to be inexpensive.

“The real effective exchange rates of many Asian currencies have been quite subdued. Similarly, in nominal trade-weighted terms, many Asian currencies have not yet appreciated much over the past decade. As a result, from a ‘fair value’ perspective the Chinese RMB, the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar currently look cheap, while the Singapore dollar is slightly expensive.

“Meanwhile, from a structural viewpoint, Asian currencies are being supported by the following trends: robust productivity gains, firming domestic demand, rising relative returns on capital, solid fiscal positions and widening trade surpluses with China. However, a major concern is that weak export prices will cause a pullback in EM currencies in the near-term. A large divergence has emerged between Asian export prices and appreciating regional currencies. This divergence will cap currency rallies in Asia, if China keeps the RMB at current levels.

“Our EM team concludes that on a long-term perspective, Asian currencies will benefit from decent valuations and structural backdrops but are at risk in the near-term. Stay tuned.”

Source: BCA Research, November 17, 2009.

Bespoke: Gold closing in on 20% above 200-day moving average
“Gold’s move over the past couple of months has been pretty incredible but not without precedent. As shown in the first chart below, the most recent leg up for gold has put it at 19% above its 200-day moving average. In the second chart, we highlight the historical 200-day moving average spread for gold. As recently as 2006 and 2008, the 200-day spread moved well above 25%, and back in 1980, the spread briefly got up to 136%! Gold is definitely overbought right now, enough so that the risk/reward tradeoff in the short-term is probably favoring the risk side. However, it has gotten much more overbought in the past than it is now, so it could still go higher before correcting.”

Source: Bespoke, November 18, 2009.

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Gold bull market - great persistency
“I think the most interesting action in the current picture is the action of gold. I get the feeling of a ground swell, some irresistible force that is driving gold higher. What’s interesting is that there are no wild spikes in gold, no fireworks, but a steady, persistent climb. This is powerful bull market action, and where it comes from nobody really knows. Is this the buying of millions of Chinese? Or is it the late-entrance of US hedge funds? Or is it short-covering on the part of squeezed COMEX speculators.

“In the end, does it matter who’s doing the buying? I know this - most Americans have been brain-washed after may years of anti-gold propaganda. Most Americans don’t know anything about gold. Most Americans have not been buying gold. Most Americans don’t realize that gold is the time-honored ultimate form of money. So the buying is probably coming from some place other than the US populace.

“So far the gold action is coming in via almost measured increases of 3 to 10 dollars a day. It’s as if the buyers are waiting for a correction, and when no correction arrives, they say ‘What the heck’ and they buy a quantity of gold, maybe not as much as they’d like, because they keep waiting for that elusive correction.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 18, 2009.

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): The case for gold
“I like to keep it simple, and I like to understand the fundamentals. So here goes. The Fed and the other central banks can create ‘money’ out of thin air. By now, everybody on earth knows that. People also figure that if it’s an item that can be created without work and through an accounting entry, it can’t be real money, rather it’s simply a brand of ‘Monopoly money’.

“OK, then how about this? You can take the phoney money that the Fed creates and you can actually buy something real with it. That ‘real something’ can be gold or it can be a foreclosed home or it can be top-grade stocks like the thirty stocks that make up the Dow. Trade Fed-created junk for something real? Why not, it certainly makes a lot of sense.

“But there’s something else. Sophisticated investors are beginning to distrust ALL fiat or central bank-created ‘money’. Moreover, they distrust a situation where central banks all over the world are creating huge additional amounts of their phoney money. Knowledgeable investors are starting to place all fiat money into a single class. And they distrust that class. They distrust it because they think of it as ‘junk money gone wild’. Their reaction - turn in your junk money for the one type of intrinsic money that has represented wealth for 6000 years - gold.

“I’ve written many times that gold seems to be imbedded into the DNA of mankind. Today, with the world in turmoil, rich men may be saying to themselves, ‘I don’t know what’s going on any more, and frankly, I don’t know where I’ll be in ten years. But if I own a thousand ounces of gold, I’ll know I’m rich. I don’t know what the price of gold will be when this whole mess is over, but I know I’ll still be wealthy if I own a thousand ounces of gold.’ And that, to my mind, is some of the thinking behind the rising price of gold and maybe even of stocks.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 17, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: John Paulson making big new bet on gold
“One of the biggest investors is placing a huge new bet on gold.

“John Paulson, who scored about $20 billion of profits between 2007 and early 2009 wagering against the housing market and financial companies, is launching a hedge fund dedicated to buying up shares of gold miners and other bullion-related investments, according to investors.

“Mr. Paulson told his investors he personally would invest between $200 million and $250 million in the new fund, which he said will begin on January 1, according to an investor at the meeting.

“Paulson & Co. already is a major holder of gold shares including AngloGold Ashanti and Kinross Gold, doing most of its buying early this year. Mr. Paulson currently has more than 10% of his $30 billion or so under management in gold-related investments, according to his investors. The moves have benefited from the recent surge in gold prices to nearly $1,150 an ounce.

“The gold fund will invest in gold-related shares and gold derivatives and will aim to outperform gold prices.

“Mr. Paulson noted that central banks around the globe have gone from sellers of gold to buyers, and that the global supply of gold is constrained.

“While harmful inflation isn’t on the horizon, he said, Mr. Paulson argued that there is a risk of a burst of inflation down the road. That’s because in the past there’s been a lag between a surge in money supply and higher inflation. Gold often does well when inflation rises.”

Source: Gregory Zuckerman, The Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2009.

Clusterstock: How the old gold bugs lost control of gold
“Latest data from the World Gold Council shows just how much the gold market has changed in just under two years. Essentially, the more traditional sources of demand for gold, i.e. jewelry, industry, gold bar hoarders, and coins have been falling.

“Meanwhile, gold demand from new retail investment products has skyrocketed from just 7% of total gold demand in 2007 to a whopping 27% most recently. That’s almost a 4x increase in their share of demand in under two years. Given that market prices are generally driven by incremental changes in supply and demand, clearly the new retail style gold players are now driving the market.

“The true gold bugs of yesteryear are no longer in charge. Though they’re probably not complaining given that retail demand is making them rich. Just realize that retail demand can be a fickle friend.”

Source: Vincent Fernando and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - The Business Insider, November 19, 2009.

Financial Times: Global recovery threatens food price surge
“Conditions are ripe for a fresh surge in food prices as the global economy recovers, says the senior United Nations agriculture official.

“Jacques Diouf, director-general of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), believes that the world is not doing enough to avert another food crisis. His warning comes as leaders are expected to gather in Rome on Monday for the World Food Summit .

“‘When the recovery picks up, we will be back to square one,’ Mr Diouf told the Financial Times in an interview.

“He said the same structural problems behind last year’s spike in food prices were still affecting the market. These included lack of investment, surging demand in Asia and diversion of food commodities into biofuels.

“‘We have all the elements of the crisis,’ he said, adding that a weakening US dollar could exacerbate the upward price pressure in food commodities.

“Although the prices of some commodities, such as wheat and rice, have halved since their peak in mid-2008 because farmers in rich countries have expanded their output, they remain well above the pre-crisis level and near record levels in poor countries.

“Other food raw materials - particularly the so-called breakfast commodities such as cocoa, sugar and tea - are now trading at their highest level for about 30 years.

“Mr Diouf’s warning came as global food companies urged policymakers to strive for regulatory transparency and a boost in infrastructure spending to tackle the food crisis.”

Source: Javier Blas and Vincent Boland, Financial Times, November 15, 2009.

Financial Times: Fears of China property bubble
“A large bubble is forming in China’s property market as a result of Beijing’s credit-driven stimulus programme, one of the country’s most prominent real estate developers warned.

“Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country’s most successful privately owned property developers, told the Financial Times the asset bubble was leading to rampant wasteful investment in the sector, undermining the country’s long-term growth prospects.

“‘Real estate prices should only go up because people want to actually use the space, but at the moment we can see more and more empty buildings across the whole country and in every real estate segment,’ Ms Zhang said. ‘The rising prices are a direct result of so much money coming from the banks and the Chinese banks should be very worried.’

“Ms Zhang’s assessment was echoed by Fan Gang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, who warned on Wednesday that real estate in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was expensive and there was a growing risk of asset price bubbles.

“Urban property prices in 70 big and medium-sized Chinese cities rose 3.9% in October from a year earlier, accelerating from September’s 2.8% rise, according to government figures.

“Price rises in top-tier markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have been much faster. Analysts say the rebound has largely been driven by an unprecedented government-led expansion of bank lending. It is also being driven by government policies, including tax breaks, low interest rates and smaller down-payment requirements.

“‘In Manhattan, they have vacancy rates of 10-15 per cent and they feel like the sky is falling, but in Pudong [the central business district in Shanghai] vacancy rates are as high as 50 per cent and they are still building new skyscrapers,’ Ms Zhang said.

“‘If you look at GDP growth, then China looks like a new engine driving the global economy, but if you look at how growth is being created here by so much wasteful investment you wouldn’t be so optimistic.’”

Source: Jamil Anderlini, Financial Times, November 18, 2009.

Financial Times: Pace of growth picks up in Japan
“Japanese gross domestic product grew 1.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter between July and September, as stimulus-fuelled consumer spending joined a growing trade surplus to help the world’s second-largest economy continue its climb out of its sharpest postwar recession.

“Monday’s preliminary data showed growth at its fastest in over two years and left little doubt the worst is over for an economy battered by collapsing external demand after last year’s financial crisis.

“The pace of third-quarter growth was equivalent to 4.8 per cent on an annualised basis, compared with the 2.6 per cent forecast by economists in a Kyodo News survey. However, Japan’s economy was still 4.4 per cent smaller than in the same quarter of 2008, showing how far it still has to go to make up the damage inflicted by global woes last winter.

“With stimulus programmes such as car subsidies due to expire and the temporary process of inventory restocking also a big contributor to GDP growth, many economists remain downbeat on prospects for the first half of 2010.

“‘It is difficult to interpret the Q3 inventory build-up as supportive of further strong growth in production,’ wrote Chiwoong Lee, economist at Goldman Sachs in a research note.

“Economists said worries about fragility in consumer sentiment meant Japan was likely to remain dependent in the near-term on the strength of export markets such as China.”

Source: Mure Dickie and Robin Harding, Financial Times, November 16, 2009.

Tags: Asset Classes, Ben Bernanke, Bill King, BRIC, China, Commodities, Corporate Bonds, Dollar Down, Dual Mandate, Dual Objectives, Ed Stein, Emerging Markets, ETF, Global Financial Stability, Global Stock Markets, Gold, Gold Bullion, India, Inflection Point, Interest Bill, Investment Stock, Maximum Employment, Msci Emerging Markets, Msci Emerging Markets Index, Msci World Index, oil, Platinum Silver, Signs Of Fatigue, Us Treasury
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David Einhorn: Market Perspective

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

David Einhorn, highly respected hedge fund manager of Greenlight Capital and author of “Fooling some of the people all of the time” yesterday delivered the keynote address at the Value Investing Congress. His full speech can be accessed here, but Rolfe Winkler of Reuters has very handily published the highlights, as posted below.

On Bernanke and Geithner:
Presently, Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner have become the quintessential short-term decision makers. They explicitly “do whatever it takes” to “solve one problem at a time” and deal with the unintended consequences later. It is too soon for history to evaluate their work, because there hasn’t been time for the unintended consequences of the “do whatever it takes” decision-making to materialize.

On too big to fail and the true lesson of Lehman:
The proper way to deal with too-big-to-fail, or too inter-connected to fail, is to make sure that no institution is too big or inter-connected to fail. The test ought to be that no institution should ever be of individual importance such that if we were faced with its demise the government would be forced to intervene. The real solution is to break up anything that fails that test.

The lesson of Lehman should not be that the government should have prevented its failure. The lesson of Lehman should be that Lehman should not have existed at a scale that allowed it to jeopardize the financial system. And the same logic applies to AIG, Fannie, Freddie, Bear Stearns, Citigroup and a couple dozen others.

The administration talks tough about TBTF, but has made very clear they aren’t willing to make policy choices to do anything to proactively break them up. It was very telling when, in a keynote at the Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering, Larry Summers said too-big-to-fail means too-big-not-to-be-regulated. The correct thing to have said, the correct policy that needs to be worked out so that we avoid a re-run of last year’s crisis is “too big to fail is too big to exist.” But don’t take my word for it, take Alan Greenspan’s.

On CDS:
I think that trying to make safer CDS is like trying to make safer asbestos. How many real businesses have to fail before policy makers decide to simply ban them?

On arguments that the lesson of 1937-8 is not to withdraw stimulus too soon:
An alternative lesson from the double dip the economy took in 1938 is that the GDP created by massive fiscal stimulus is artificial. So whenever it is eventually removed, there will be significant economic fall out. Our choice may be either to maintain large annual deficits until our creditors refuse to finance them or tolerate another leg down in our economy by accepting some measure of fiscal discipline.

Channeling Stephen “There-is-no-exit” Roach:
As we sit here today, the Federal Reserve is propping up the bond market, buying long-dated assets with printed money. It cannot turn around and sell what it has just bought.

There is a basic rule of liquidity. It isn’t the same for everyone. If you own 10,000 shares of Greenlight Re, you have a liquid investment. However, if I own 5 million shares it is not liquid to me, because of both the size of the position and the signal my selling would send to the market. For this reason, the Fed cannot sell its Treasuries or Agencies without destroying the market. This means that it will be challenged to shrink the monetary base if inflation actually turns up….

…. The Fed could reach the point where it perceives doing whatever it takes requires it to become the buyer of Treasuries of first and last resort.

On his gold thesis:
I have seen many people debate whether gold is a bet on inflation or deflation. As I see it, it is neither. Gold does well when monetary and fiscal policies are poor and does poorly when they appear sensible. Gold did very well during the Great Depression when FDR debased the currency. It did well again in the money printing 1970s, but collapsed in response to Paul Volcker’s austerity. It ultimately made a bottom around 2001 when the excitement about our future budget surpluses peaked….

….When I watch Chairman Bernanke, Secretary Geithner and Mr. Summers on TV, read speeches written by the Fed Governors, observe the “stimulus” black hole, and think about our short-termism and lack of fiscal discipline and political will, my instinct is to want to short the dollar. But then I look at the other major currencies. The Euro, the Yen, and the British Pound might be worse. So, I conclude that picking one these currencies is like choosing my favorite dental procedure. And I decide holding gold is better than holding cash, especially now, where both earn no yield.

He’s also buying long-dated options on interest rates using derivatives:
Along these same lines, we have bought long-dated options on much higher US and Japanese interest rates. The options in Japan are particularly cheap because the historical volatility is so low. I prefer options to simply shorting government bonds, because there remains a possibility of a further government bond rally in response to the economy rolling over again. With options, I can clearly limit how much I am willing to lose, while creating a lot of leverage to a possible rate spiral.

Click here for Einhorn’s full speech.

Source: Rolfe Winkler, Reuters, October 19, 2009.

Tags: Bear Stearns, Ben Bernanke, Buttonwood, Couple Dozen, David Einhorn, Fannie Freddie, Freddie Bear, Gold, Keynote Address, Larry Summers, Lehman, Market Perspective, Policy Choices, Real Solution, Reuters, Tbtf, Term Decision, Tim Geithner, True Lesson, Unintended Consequences, Winkler
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Words from the (Investment) Wise - September 20, 2009

Sunday, September 20th, 2009

Marking the one-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers demise, risky assets last week again marched higher to the tune of economic data supporting the argument of a global economic recovery. A realization among investors that the economic transition from recession to recovery was gaining momentum, resulted in many global stock markets scaling fresh peaks for the year.

Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, on Tuesday said the US recession “is very likely over”. However, he remained cautious about the shape of the recovery and said he expected a “moderate” recovery in 2010 with growth “not much faster than the underlying potential growth rate of the economy”, i.e. approximately 3%.

“At the moment we don’t see (the economy) getting better or worse, but that’s better than you could say six months ago,” added Warren Buffett. “The terror of last year is gone and that’s thanks in part to the government.”

Source: Tom Toles, Slate.com

Not only did the US stock market indices record up-days on every day except Thursday, but all ten economic sectors that make up the S&P 500 also closed the week in the black. Most other stock markets (mature and emerging alike), commodities, oil, precious metals, high-yielding currencies and corporate bonds also put in a stellar performance as a bullish mood prevailed.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or “fear gauge”, traded at about the same level (23.9) as before the Lehman bankruptcy in September last year. Also, government bonds and other safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and Japanese yen were out of favor as investors sought higher returns elsewhere.

As investors started assuming more risk since March, the US Dollar Index headed lower, hitting a one-year low last week and trading in a confirmed downtrend as far as primary trend indicators are concerned. The combination of low interest rates and quantitative easing has made the US dollar an attractive currency for funding carry-trade transactions (i.e. selling low-yielding currencies to finance the purchase of higher-yielding currencies). (Click here for a short technical analysis.)

The declining dollar, central bank purchases, the de-hedging by gold producers and rising inflation expectations served as catalysts for gold bullion’s strength, causing the yellow metal to close above the $1,000 level for the sixth consecutive day on Friday. While gold’s move grabbed the headlines, platinum (+42.5%) and silver (+50.5%) have actually outperformed gold (+13.9%) significantly since the start of the year.

Source: StockCharts.com

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below - a set of numbers that indicates an increase in risk appetite.

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of the movements of major global stock markets for the past week, as well as various other measurement periods, is given in the table below.

The MSCI World Index (+1.8%) and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+2.8%) both made headway last week to take the year-to-date gains to +23.8% and a staggering +62.1% respectively. These indices are still more than 30% down from the 2007 highs, but markets such as Mexico (-8.8%) and Chile (-5.8%) have almost wiped out all their financial crisis losses.

The major US indices extended their gains to two consecutive weeks, marking eight up-weeks during the past ten weeks. The year-to-date gains are as follows: Dow Jones Industrial Index +11.9%, S&P 500 Index +18.3%, Nasdaq Composite Index +35.2% and Russell 2000 Index +23.7%. Interestingly, since the Nasdaq Index was created in 1971, only 1991, 1995 and 2003 have seen bigger year-to-date gains.

While the indices have gained considerably from their lows, they still have to rally by between 6.0% (Russell 2000) and 17.2% (S&P 500) to reach the levels of the Friday (September 12, 2008) before Lehman’s collapse.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

Top performers in the stock markets this week were Hungary (+7.4%), Macedonia (+7.3%), Ireland (+6.1%), Argentina (+5.7%) and Sri Lanka (+5.3%). At the bottom end of the performance rankings, countries included Kenya (-1.6%), Uganda (-1.5%), the Philippines (-1.3%), Singapore (-1.2%) and Slovakia (-1.2%).

Of the 98 stock markets I keep on my radar screen, 81% recorded gains, 13% showed losses and 4% remained unchanged. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, as supplied by Emerginvest.)

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that as far as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, the winners for the week included Market Vectors Solar (KWT) (+10.5%), United States Natural Gas (UNG) (+9.9%), iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF) (+9.6%) and Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN) (+9.0%).

On the losing side of the slate, ETFs included ProShares Short Financials (SEF) (-4.5%), ProShares Short Russell 2000 (RWM) (-4.2%), Broadband HOLDRS (BDH) (-2.9%) and CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB) (-2.6%).

The cost of buying credit insurance for US and European companies eased sharply during the past two months, as shown by the tighter spreads for both the CDX (North American, investment-grade) Index (down from 118 to 103) and the Markit iTraxx Europe Index (down from 95 to 86).

Also, junk-bond yields continued declining, as shown by the Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index (and also by the good performance of the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, HYG). The Index dropped by 63.4% to 798 from its record high of 2,182 on December 15, meaning the spread between high-yield debt and comparable US Treasuries was 798 basis points on Friday. This heralds the return of high-yield spreads to “pre-Lehman” levels (854 basis points on September 12, 2008).

Referring to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting next week, the quote du jour comes from straight-talking Bill King (The King Report). He said: “Traders and investors must contemplate what course of action the Fed will announce and enact after next week’s FOMC if ‘the US recession is very likely over’. If quantitative easing (QE), which is due to expire, is renewed, stocks should rally but commodities, gold and inflation plays should rally far more. The dollar should tank. China should go apoplectic. Benito will look foolish for saying ‘the recession is very likely over’. Bonds might rally initially but then look out below.

“If QE is not renewed, stocks and commodities should tank; the dollar should soar and bonds, after initially declining, should rally. China will be appeased. Benito will have validated his rhetoric with action.”

Other news is that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are considering sweeping rules to regulate pay at banks. According to The New York Times “the rules depart from the hands-off approach that dominated bank regulation for the last three decades, but are not as strict as proposals from some European leaders”.

Also, the US Securities and Exchange Commission passed rules last week to firm up on the supervision of credit ratings agencies following a flood of criticism over their role in the financial crisis.

Next, a tag cloud of all the articles I read during the past week. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. Key words such as “bank”, “market”, “economy”, “government”, “China” and “gold” featured prominently. “Recession” has become a footnote.

The major moving-average levels for the benchmark US indices, the BRIC countries and South Africa (from where I am writing this post) are given in the table below. With the exception of the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index, which is trading below its 50-day moving average, all the indices are above their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day lines are also in all instances above the 200-day lines.

The August highs and September lows are also given in the table as these levels define a support area for a number of the indices. On the other hand, the next potential upside target for the S&P 500 is about 1,120.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

As stock markets continue to reach new highs, long-term mutual fund investors have reversed their strategy this month, selling shares for the first time since March, said Clusterstock. The outflows for the first two weeks of September were bigger than the inflows seen in the last three months combined.

Source: Clusterstock - Business Insider, September 17, 2009.

Bespoke highlights that the S&P 500 has now closed more than 20% above its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 1983. “This comes just six months after the Index traded the furthest below its 200-day since the Great Depression! Not even during the great bull run of the 90s did the Index get this far above its 200-DMA. This has happened only a handful of times in the history of the S&P 500,” said the report.

Source: Bespoke, September 16, 2009.

Short-term movement aside, when considering monthly data, three momentum-type oscillators (RSI, MACD and ROC) have reversed course over the past few months for the first time since the sell signals of 2007, and now indicate a positive primary trend.

Source: StockCharts.com

Putting matters in perspective from across the pond, David Fuller (Fullermoney) said: “Stock market action continues to confirm a bull market in every respect. Downside risk is probably limited to periodic mean reversions towards the rising 200-day moving averages. Such pullbacks generally offer the best buying opportunities.

“The main danger signs to look for will be an eventual tightening of monetary policy and an inverted yield curve. [PduP: The chart below shows that the next inverted yield curve is probably a long way off.] When this next happens, and both tend to be lead indicators, I will focus on introducing trailing stops for all equity positions, actual or mental, and ideally use strength to reduce equity exposure.

Source: Fullermoney.com

“Currently, I maintain that we are still in the second psychological perception stage of the current bull market, characterized by the ‘wall of worry’. With any luck, we can look forward to the third and climactic stage of a bull market cycle, in which investors become euphoric,” concluded Fuller.

For more discussion on the direction of financial markets, see my recent posts “Interview with Marc Faber“, “Is the rally ending, or does it have more to go?“, “Charts: Stocks face 15% correction in October“, “Albert Edwards: ‘I remain in the bearish camp‘”, “Bullion - a viable alternative to fiat currencies” and “More US dollar woes ahead“. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of September 18, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

Economy
The global economic recession is over, according to the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World by Moody’s Economy.com. “Survey results during the first week of September improved notably across the entire global economy and most industries. Assessments of current business conditions and expectations regarding the outlook in early 2010 rose sharply.”

Source: Moody’s Economy.com

The Survey’s results were confirmed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s index of leading indicators (covering 29 countries), which rose to 97.8 in July from 96.3 in June, reported The Wall Street Journal. The OECD said the indicators “point to broad economic recovery” and that “clear signals of recovery are now visible in all major seven economies, in particular in France and Italy, as well as in China, India and Russia”.

A snapshot of the week’s (mostly positive) US economic reports is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

September 18, 2009
• Loan delinquency and charge-off rates

September 17, 2009
• Housing starts - multi-family units led the charge in August
• Jobless claims - initial claims decline, continuing claims advance

September 16, 2009
• The Energy Price Index lifts Consumer Price Index in August
• Cars and many other components account for the strength in factory activity
• Current account narrows in Q2

September 15, 2009
• Autos and non-auto components lift retail sales in August
• Wholesale Price Index movement largely an energy price story

It is noteworthy that industrial production increased 0.8% in August after an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in July. Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) said: “The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses four variables - industrial production, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales - to determine turning points of a business cycle. The important aspect to note is that the trough of industrial production was in June 2009. Therefore, it is quite likely that the NBER will date the end of the Great Recession as June/July 2009 once additional information is available.”

Source: Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, September 16, 2009.

Economists surveyed by the The Wall Street Journal are increasingly confident that the US economy is growing again. They predicted that the US will grow at a 3% annual rate in the current quarter - well above the 0.6% forecast they made just three months ago - and will expand at a 2.5% pace in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, William White, the highly respected former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, warned (via the Financial Times) that government actions to help the economy in the short run may be sowing the seeds for future crises. “Are we going into a W[-shaped recession]? Almost certainly. Are we going into an L? I would not be in the slightest bit surprised,” he said, referring to the risks of a so-called double-dip recession or a protracted stagnation like Japan suffered in the 1990s. “The only thing that would really surprise me is a rapid and sustainable recovery from the position we’re in.”

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance, September 18, 2009.

Click here for a summary of Wells Fargo Securities’ weekly economic and financial commentary.

In addition to the interest rate announcement by the FOMC on Wednesday (September 23), US economic data reports for the week include the following:

Monday, September 21
• Leading economic indicators

Tuesday, September 22
• FHFA US Housing Price Index

Wednesday, September 23
• FOMC rate decision

Thursday, September 24
• Initial jobless claims
• Existing home sales

Friday, September 25
• Durable goods orders
• Michigan Sentiment Index
• New home sales

Markets
The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global financial markets performed during the past week.

Source: Wall Street Journal Online, September 18, 2009.

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts,” said Winston Churchill (hat tip: Charles Kirk - do make a point of visiting his excellent site). And isn’t this so true of the investment world where mistakes are the order of the day. Let’s hope the news items and quotes from market commentators included in the “Words from the Wise” review will assist readers of Investment Postcards to overcome the inevitable losing trades and focus on the next money-making opportunity.

For short comments - maximum 140 characters - on topical economic and market issues, web links and graphs, you can also follow me on Twitter by clicking here.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town (from where I am leaving on my first trip to Dallas, Texas in just more than a week).

Hat tip: The Big Picture

The New York Times: Wall Street, one year later
“The Times’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, Gretchen Morgenson and Joe Nocera recount the events of the weekend that Lehman Brothers failed and discuss the lessons learned from the financial crisis.”

Source: The New York Times, September 11, 2009.

Charlie Rose: Obama’s Wall Street speech
“President Obama’s speech on Wall Street marking one year since the fall of Lehman Brothers and the global economic recovery plan with Jake Tapper of ABC News, author Jim Stewart and Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times.

Source: Charlie Rose, September 14, 2009.

Financial Times: Bernanke says US recession probably over
“The US recession ‘is very likely over’, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said on Tuesday as Barack Obama, US President, heralded the end of the economic ‘freefall’.

“Their comments came after data showed retail sales rose 2.7% last month, their fastest rate in more than three years. The expected boost from the popular ‘cash for clunkers’ car rebate programme was accompanied by a surprise pick-up in other spending.

“This raised hopes that US consumers might be re-emerging from the rubble of the housing market collapse, the rollercoaster ride in equities markets and rising unemployment.

“‘This is a consumer that is in a lasting full recovery mode,’ said Chris Rupkey of the Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ. ‘The Fed is going to need to stop talking about its exit strategy and start implementing it if today’s data keeps up.’

“Others were more cautious, pointing out that August was the back-to-school month. ‘I’d like to see if this is just a one-month bounce or an actual trend,’ said Adam York, at Wells Fargo.

“Many economists believe that consumer spending will be constrained for months by households’ limited access to credit and their desire to reduce their debts.

“Mr Bernanke, who did not comment directly on the sales report, remained cautious about the shape of the recovery.

“He said he expected a ‘moderate’ recovery in 2010 with growth ‘not much faster than the underlying potential growth rate of the economy’ - which means around 3%.”

Source: Krishna Guha, Anna Fifield, Sarah O’Connor and Alan Rappeport, Financial Times, September 15, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: The recession is over … sort of
“Barrons.com’s Bob O’Brien comments on Ben Bernanke’s speech earlier this week in which he believes the recession is over, but not without qualifications.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Economic confidence rebounds
“Economists and consumers are feeling better about the economy a year after the most frightening moments of the financial crisis. Forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, giving the government generally good marks for its handling of the financial crisis, now see employers slowly adding jobs over the next 12 months.

“And the latest reading of consumer spirits shows signs of optimism. But most economists still expect the unemployment rate will climb to 10.2%, from today’s 9.7%, before falling early next year.

“‘We are in a technical recovery, but risks remain abundant,’ said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial. ‘It will still take some luck and skill to get Main Street to feel some of the relief Wall Street has felt.’

“Main Street is beginning to feel some relief, though, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary reading of consumer sentiment for September, released Friday.

“The index rose to 70.2 in September from to 65.7 in August, the first increase since June. Consumers felt better about current conditions, and about the future.

“The 51 forecasters surveyed over the past week, not all of whom answered every question, are increasingly confident that the US economy is growing again.

“They predicted in the new Wall Street Journal survey that the US will grow at a 3% annual rate in the current quarter - well above the 0.6% forecast they made just three months ago - and will expand at a 2.5% pace in the fourth quarter.

“While they predict the US will add jobs over the next 12 months, they see a net increase of only 200,000 jobs over that period, and predict unemployment to be a still-high 9.3% in December 2010.

“Job-market weakness is expected to keep the Fed from boosting interest rates, now near zero, until August 2010, the economists say.

“The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s forecasting gauge bolsters the optimists’ case. Its index of leading indicators, which covers 29 of its member countries, rose to 97.8 in July, from 96.3 in June.

“The Paris research organization said Friday the indicators ‘point to broad economic recovery’. It said ‘clear signals of recovery are now visible in all major seven economies, in particular in France and Italy, as well as in China, India and Russia’.

“As they look back on a year of extraordinary government actions aimed at avoiding an even worse recession, economists in The Wall Street Journal survey give good grades to the response of the Bush and Obama administrations and the Federal Reserve - a median score of 80 out of 100.”

Source: Phil Izzo, Sara Murray and Justin Lahart, The Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2009.

MoneyNews: Buffett - economy has not turned up
“The US economy has not begun to climb out of the worst recession since the Great Depression, but the ‘terror’ that followed last year’s near-collapse of the financial system is gone, due in part to government intervention, Warren Buffett told Reuters on Tuesday.

“Buffett maintained a positive outlook on the government’s much criticized Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) for banks, saying it may ultimately turn a profit for the government.

“‘At the moment we don’t see (the economy) getting better or worse, but that’s better than you could say six months ago,’ said the billionaire known as The Sage of Omaha for his long history of successful investments. ‘The terror of last year is gone and that’s thanks in part to the government.’

“US President Barack Obama said on Tuesday that measures undertaken by his administration to rescue the economy - including a $787 billion stimulus package - were working, but warned a complete recovery would take ’some time’.

“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also gave a fairly upbeat view, saying the longest and deepest recession since the 1930s was likely over, but added it would ‘feel like a very weak economy for some time’.”

Source: MoneyNews, September 16, 2009.

Financial Times: Economist warns of double-dip recession
“The world has not tackled the problems at the heart of the economic downturn and is likely to slip back into recession, according to one of the few mainstream economists who predicted the financial crisis.

“Speaking at the Sibos conference in Hong Kong on Monday, William White, the highly-respected former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements, also warned that government actions to help the economy in the short run may be sowing the seeds for future crises.

“‘Are we going into a W[-shaped recession]? Almost certainly. Are we going into an L? I would not be in the slightest bit surprised,’ he said, referring to the risks of a so-called double-dip recession or a protracted stagnation like Japan suffered in the 1990s.

“‘The only thing that would really surprise me is a rapid and sustainable recovery from the position we’re in.’

“The comments from Mr White, who ran the economic department at the central banks’ bank from 1995 to 2008, carry weight because he was one of the few senior figures to predict the financial crisis in the years before it struck.

“Mr White repeatedly warned of dangerous imbalances in the global financial system as far back as 2003 and - breaking a great taboo in central banking circles at the time - he dared to challenge Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, over his policy of persistent cheap money.

“On Monday Mr White questioned how sustainable the signs of life in the global economy would prove to be once governments and central banks started to withdraw their unprecedented stimulus measures. ‘The green shoots are certainly out there - the question is what kind of fertiliser is being used on them,’ he said.

“Worldwide, central banks have pumped thousands of billions of dollars of new money into the financial system over the past two years in an effort to prevent a depression. Meanwhile, governments have gone to similar extremes, taking on vast sums of debt to prop up industries from banking to car making.

“These measures may already be inflating a bubble in asset prices, from equities to commodities, he said, and there was a small risk that inflation would get out of control over the medium term if central banks miss-time their ‘exit strategies’.”

Source: Robert Cookson and Sundeep Tucker, Financial Times, September 14, 2009.

Financial Times: Lending in Europe continues to shrink
“The credit crunch in Europe worsened over the summer as corporate bond finance issuance failed to plug the gap left by a sharp contraction of bank lending.

“Net lending by banks went further into negative territory in July as companies paid back more loans than they took out new ones.

“Loans outstanding contracted by a net €25 billion ($36 billion) in the month, the fifth successive month of an increasing shrinkage of supply.

“At the same time, there was a retreat in the recent record corporate bond issuance.

“Bond issuance in July declined for the first time since March, by €20 billion month on month to €27 billion, although bankers are convinced that it was only seasonal.

“Bankers said the July trends had continued into August and would affect smaller companies most severely.

“Morgan Stanley, which compiled the credit crunch numbers from central bank data and Dealogic, said the scant availability of bank lending would penalise smaller companies that have no access to bond markets.

“‘As Europe’s commercial banks de-lever, lending is likely to be squeezed,’ said Huw van Steenis, banks analyst.

“According to Morgan Stanley, there was €319 billion of corporate bond issuance in the first seven months of the year and a decline of €33 billion in European bank-originated loans.

“That marked a reversal of the balance of corporate funding from the same time last year, when bank loans totalled €356 billion compared with corporate bond issuance of only €119 billion.

“Banks across Europe have insisted in recent months any decline in lending is due to a fall-off in demand, not supply.”

Source: Patrick Jenkins, Financial Times, September 13, 2009.

Financial Times: OECD warns 25 million jobs at risk from crisis
“Up to 25 million people in high-income countries will have lost their jobs by the end of next year as the recession pushes the unemployment rate towards a record 10%, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast on Wednesday.

“The Paris-based OECD said that, while recent signs of economic recovery might mean unemployment peaked earlier and at a slightly lower level than its forecast, governments must intervene ‘quickly and decisively’ to prevent the sharp rise turning into long-term joblessness.

“Its annual employment outlook underlines fears that a recovery without jobs might be in prospect, even if the return to economic growth seen in some countries in the third quarter is sustained.

“‘Most OECD countries are already facing a jobs crisis. This is likely to get worse before it gets better,’ said Stefano Scarpetta, the report’s lead author and head of the organisation’s employment division.

“The OECD said 15 million jobs were lost between the end of 2007 and July this year and 10 million more could go by the end of next year in the 30-nation area if the recovery failed to gain momentum. A total increase of that magnitude would be equivalent to the population of a country larger than Australia.

“In 2007 the unemployment rate in the OECD hit a 25-year low of 5.6%, but it rose to a postwar high of 8.5% this July.”

Source: Brian Groom, Financial Times, September 16, 2009.

Financial Times: China turns to WTO in trade dispute
“Barack Obama’s decision last week to impose emergency tariffs on Chinese tyres has fuelled an increasingly familiar Sino-US war of words over trade.

“Beijing launched an investigation on Monday into whether US poultry and car parts were being unfairly dumped in the Chinese market. It also requested formal consultations at the World Trade Organisation into the US tariffs - the first step in trying to have them declared illegal.

“Whether it will succeed is unclear. The particular ’safeguard’ measure that the US president invoked was, after all, written specifically to allow the US to block Chinese imports as part of the price for China joining the WTO in 2001.

“However, trade experts and lawyers say the episode does show the increasingly sophisticated legal strategies used by Beijing in its many disputes with trading partners, and the way it maximises political effect while trying to limit the actual economic damage.

“Opinion is divided as to whether this dispute - while breaking ground by using a particular trade law for the first time - is likely by itself to set off a protectionist spiral.

“Gao Yongfu, an expert in trade law at Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade, said: “I think it unlikely that this dispute will be limited to just one industry - it’s likely to spread to others.”

“Prof Gao said other trading partners, including the European Union, were likely to follow suit, broadening if not deepening the restrictions on trade.

“Yet other trade lawyers and economists noted that China had threatened to retaliate in a way that had high political salience but modest economic impact.

“Beijing has built a reputation for rapid but controlled retaliation during trade disputes. One Washington trade lawyer said: ‘China always responds, so I don’t think this escalates. It just repeats each time the US does something.’”

Source: Alan Beattie and Geoff Dyer, Financial Times, September 14, 2009.

Chart of the day (Clustrstock): Consumer credit collapse
“Hoping for a consumer-led recovery? Don’t hold your breath. The latest data from the Federal Reserve shows that the year-over-year decline in total consumer credit is collapsing at an accelerating rate. God forbid consumers go back to living within their means.”

Source: Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - Business Insider, September 9, 2009.

MoneyNews: Geithner - tax hikes not likely
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner acknowledged Tuesday the federal government had to take some ‘deeply offensive’ steps to help the country get past the financial crisis a year ago.

“But he also said in a nationally broadcast interview that things are ‘dramatically different’ now, although it’s too early to say the economy is in recovery.

“‘A year ago we really were on the verge of a full-sale run’ on banks, along the lines of the 1930s Depression, Geithner said in an interview broadcast on ABC’s ‘Good Morning America’. He said ‘the biggest fear now, the biggest challenge, is to make sure we change the rules of the game so it doesn’t happen again’.

“Asked about projections of a $1.6 trillion deficit and a growing US debt obligation to other countries, Geithner said the Obama administration still wants to avoid an increase in income taxes on the middle class. The secretary noted Barack Obama’s pledge against such a hike during his presidential campaign and said Obama remains ‘very committed’ to it.

“He also said it was too early to say just when the government might let allow expiration of an emergency lending program for financial institutions (TARP) and said he also didn’t know how soon Washington could extricate itself from direct involvement in the auto industry, although he said it likely won’t be within a year.

“Geithner said the administration cannot suggest any guarantee of financial stability, but said ‘what we have an obligation to do is to put that in place here and around the world. … That’s our obligation.’

“He acknowledged that to a large degree, Washington’s intervention in the private markets hasn’t gone over well with large elements of the public and said ‘the government had to do some deeply offensive things to undo the damage. … But we’re going to get out of this as soon as possible.’

“On the budget deficits, Geithner said, ‘I think Americans understand we have an unsustainable fiscal position. We have to bring these deficits down over time.’ He said the country must ‘get our fiscal house in order’ and stressed that Obama is vehemently opposed to a general income tax increase for people who make under $250,000 a year.

“The secretary said that while things are better than they were a year ago, ‘I would say there’s no recovery yet. We define recovery … as people back to work, people able to get a job again, businesses investing again … and we’re not at that point.’

“‘We’re going to do what it takes to get this economy going again,’ he said. ‘We’re going to look carefully at any sensible program.’”

Source: MoneyNews, September 15, 2009.

BCA Research: US retail sales - too soon to open the champagne
“A slew of positive economic surprises have propelled stocks to new rally highs. However, the equity rally has entered a more risky phase, with breadth likely to narrow going forward.

“The improvement in household sentiment in recent months and the recent release of the retail sales report offer some hope for a recovery in final demand, but it is still far too soon to determine that a sustainable consumer revival is beginning. Importantly, the uptick in consumer spending outside of autos and gas stations occurred in the context of heavy discounting. This signals that consumer thrift remains well entrenched and that retailers are being forced to slash prices in order to boost sales, to the detriment of margins.

“We remain cautiously optimistic on the equity market, but worry that breadth will narrow as profit expectations for domestically-geared sectors could be disappointed. Investors should stay concentrated in globally-focused companies.”

Source: BCA Research, September 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Housing starts - multi-family units led the charge in August
“Starts of new homes increased 1.5% to an annual rate of 598,000 in August, with a 25% increase in starts of multi-family units accounting for all the gain. The level of housing starts is the highest since November 2008.

“On a year-to-year basis, starts of new homes have dropped nearly 28%, which is a noticeable deceleration in the pace of activity from the 55% record decline seen in January 2009.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, September 17 2009.

MoneyNews: Gross - housing recovery no cure
“Housing will not rebound to its former exuberance once the economy rebounds, says Bill Gross, manager of bond giant Pimco.

“Gross said investors will not trust their homes to give them good returns as they did in the past, and that housing will not lead the economy forward.

“‘Housing cannot lead us out of this big R recession no matter what the recent Case-Shiller home price numbers may suggest,’ Gross writes in his September outlook.

“Investors were buoyed by new home sales increasing by 9.6% in July, according to the Commerce Department. Yet the number of Americans owning homes could fall to 65% from a peak of 69%, reported Fortune magazine.

“Americans should not expect a robust bull market, Gross said. The new economy will pay off its debt, increase its savings, and see more ‘delevering, deglobalization, and regulation,’ he said.”

Source: Ellen Chang, MoneyNews, September 17, 2009.

MoneyNews: Millions more foreclosures loom
“As many as six million Americans remain at risk of foreclosure over the next three years, according to a recent press release about the government’s Home Affordable Refinancing Program (HAMP).

“‘We recognize that any modification program seeking to avoid preventable foreclosures has limits, HAMP included,’ wrote Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael S. Barr.

“‘Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures. Therefore, even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures.’

“Some of these foreclosures, Barr observes, will result from investor borrowers who did not qualify for the program, or because borrowers did not respond to government outreach.

“‘Still others will be the product of borrowers who bought homes well beyond what they could afford and so would be unable to make the monthly payment even on a modified loan,’ Barr says.

“The Home Affordable Refinancing Program was intended to help homeowners whose existing mortgages were up to 105% of their current house value, but has since been expanded to help those with mortgages up to 125% of current value.

“‘Overall, the GSEs (government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae) have refinanced more than 2.7 million loans since the announcement of the Administration’s comprehensive housing plan,’ Barr notes.”

Source: Julie Crawshaw, MoneyNews, September 15, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Current account narrows in Q2
“The current-account deficit of the US economy narrowed to $98.8 billion in the second quarter from $104.5 billion in the first quarter. As a percent of nominal GDP, the current account deficit was 2.8% in the second quarter, down from a 2.9% mark in the first quarter of 2009 and record high of 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2005. The trade deficit widened in July (-$31.9 billion vs. -$27.5 billion in June) which raises the probability of a wider current account deficit in the third quarter.

“In the second quarter, the surplus on income declined, marking the fifth quarterly drop in the last six quarters. Foreign-owned assets in the US rose $16.4 billion in the second quarter after recording declines in the fourth quarter of 2008 (-$11.9 billion) and the first quarter (-$67.8 billion).”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, September 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Cars and many other components account for the strength in factory activity
“Industrial production increased 0.8% in August after an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in July (previously estimated as a 0.5% increase). The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses four variables - industrial production, nonfarm payroll employment, real personal income less transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales - to determine turning points of a business cycle. The important aspect to note is that the trough of industrial production was in June 2009. Therefore, it is quietly likely that the NBER will date the end of the Great Recession as June 2009/July 2009 once additional information is available.

“Factory production increased 0.6% in August, after an upwardly revised 1.4% increase in July (previously estimated as a 1.0% gain). Production of autos rose 5.5% in August, following a 20.1% jump in the prior month. Primary metals; machinery; and electrical equipment, appliances, and components all posted gains between 0.5% and 1% during August. The operating rate of the factory sector rose to 66.6% in August, after establishing a record low of 65.1% in June 2009.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, September 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Energy Price Index lifts Consumer Price Index in August
“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved up 0.4% in August after holding steady in July. The 9.1% increase in gasoline prices accounted for the sharp increase in the headline number. Excluding energy, the CPI increased only 0.1% in August compared with no change in July. Food prices rose 0.1% in August following a 0.3% decline in the prior month. The Energy Price Index recorded a 4.6% gain in August vs. a 0.4% decline in July. The decline in energy prices in the early weeks of September suggests a drop of the Energy Price Index for the month. On a year-to-year basis, the CPI declined 1.5% in August vs. a 2.1% in the twelve months ended July.

“The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in August, putting the year-to-year gain at 1.4%. The deceleration of the core CPI and declining trend of the overall CPI is indicative of inflation being a non-issue for several months.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, September 16, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Wholesale Price Index movement largely an energy price story
“The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Finished Goods moved up 1.7% in August following a 0.9% drop in the prior month. The wide swings of this index are largely due to similar noticeable movements of the Energy Price Index. According to the Labor Department, over 90% of the increase in the wholesale finished goods price index during August was the result of higher energy prices, which rose 8.0%. The 23% jump in gasoline price was the biggest culprit. This is most likely to be reversed in September, given the drop in gasoline prices during the first two weeks of the month.

“The food price index was up 0.4% after recording a 1.5% drop in July. A large part of the increase in food prices was due to the 5.9% jump in prices of fresh fruits and melons. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2% in August compared with a 0.1% drop in July. The 0.8% increase of the light motor vehicle index in August accounted for over fifty percent of the gain in the core PPI. The 0.7% increase of the Passenger Car Price Index also played a role in lifting the core PPI.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, September 15, 2009.

The New York Times: Fed considers sweeping rules to regulate pay at banks
“The Federal Reserve and the Treasury are preparing broad new rules that would force banks to rein in practices that made multimillionaires out of many financial executives during the housing bubble, officials said.

“The rules depart from the hands-off approach that dominated bank regulation for the last three decades, but are not as strict as proposals from some European leaders and suggestions from some members of Congress angered by the financial troubles of the last year.

“Fed officials would give banks wide leeway in how they structure their rewards. They would not prohibit million-dollar pay packages or address issues of fairness. Rather, the rules are intended to restrict pay plans that encourage reckless behavior by rewarding only short-term gains.

“And because the rules would be applied through the confidential bank examination process, it would be hard for consumers and investors to judge how strictly the rules were being applied.

“The effort is also meant to be a credible alternative to the call by some European leaders for specific limits on bonuses to financial executives, an idea opposed by the Obama administration. Officials from Europe and the

“Treasury are negotiating over compensation and other financial industry regulations in advance of a summit meeting next week in Pittsburgh of leaders from the Group of 20 industrialized and large emerging countries.

“The Obama administration opposes strict caps on pay, arguing that the size of the bonuses are not as important as the risk to the financial health of the bank that bonuses linked to performance can create.

“The simple proposition should be that you don’t want people being paid for taking too much risk, and you want to make sure that their compensation is tied to long-term performance,” said Timothy Geithner, the Treasury secretary, in an interview by telephone.”

Source: Edmund Andrews and Louise Story, The New York Times, September 19, 2009.

Financial Times: SEC tightens grip on ratings agencies
“The US Securities and Exchange Commission passed rules on Thursday to tighten supervision of credit ratings agencies following a torrent of criticism over their role in the financial crisis.

“Credit ratings agencies, which are usually paid by the issuers they rate, came under fire during the crisis because they gave top ratings to hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds backed by risky mortgages and other loans that are now in many cases worthless.

“The SEC said on Thursday that ratings agencies must reveal more information on past ratings so that investors could compare relative performance. Banks will have to share the underlying data used to determine ratings, so that competing agencies can offer unsolicited ratings for structured finance products.

“The SEC said it would remove references to ratings in some of its rules as part of efforts to reduce overall reliance on ratings by investors.

“It also decided to get public feedback on whether ratings agencies should be subject to potential legal liability under securities law and what the possible consequences might be.

“Indeed, most lawsuits against ratings agencies have failed because their ratings are an ‘opinion’ and therefore subject to free-speech protection. The issue has become a key factor in the debate on the future of the industry.

“Fresh proposals were also put forward governing disclosure, including whether any “preliminary ratings” were obtained from other ratings agencies - in other words, whether there was ‘ratings shopping’.”

Source: Joanna Chung and Aline van Duyn, Financial Times, September 17, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Fed likely to keep buying mortgage instruments
“The Federal Reserve, which convenes its policy meeting next week, is likely to stay the course to buy $1.45 trillion in mortgage-linked securities despite potential resistance from a few regional Fed presidents.

“Central-bank officials plan to discuss winding down those purchases over the coming months to limit disruption to the market when the buying comes to an end.

“Some regional Fed policy makers have suggested the Fed might halt the program before it finishes its purchases of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and $200 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt announced in the past year. But they are a small minority across the Fed system.

“Top Fed officials believe such a move would tighten overall monetary policy at a time when they still worry about the durability of the economic recovery. The Fed has completed about two-thirds of its purchases, almost $1 trillion worth, and is likely to complete the rest unless prospects for the economy improve radically in the coming months.

“At the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 22-23 meeting, the central bank’s policy makers - including the 12 regional Fed presidents - will assess the early signs of improvement now taking shape across the economy. Officials are encouraged by the rebound in financial-market conditions and initial indications that the housing market is pulling out of its deep dive.

“But they are hesitant to bank on a strong recovery. The sizable growth expected in the third quarter is due in part to short-term effects such as companies replenishing inventories and the government’s ‘cash for clunkers’ auto-rebate program. Higher saving by households is casting doubt on consumer spending. And even the moderate growth that Fed officials expect next year wouldn’t be enough to bring down the unemployment rate substantially.

“‘The economy seems to be brushing itself off and beginning its climb out of the deep hole it’s been in,’ San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a speech Monday. ‘But I regret to say that I expect the recovery to be tepid. What’s more, the gradual expansion gathering steam will remain vulnerable to shocks.’”

Source: Sudeep Reddy, The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2009.

Bloomberg: Pimco’s Gross boosts government debt to 5-year high
“Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., increased holdings of government-related debt last month to the most in five years and cut mortgage securities.

“Gross boosted the $177.5 billion Total Return Fund’s investment in Treasuries, so-called agency debt and other bonds linked to the government to 44% of assets, the most since August 2004, from 25% in July, according to Pimco’s website. The fund cut mortgage debt to 38%, the lowest level since February 2007, from 47%.

“‘We are heading into what we call the New Normal, which is a period of time in which economies grow very slowly,’ Gross wrote at the start of the month in his September investment outlook for the Newport Beach, California, company.

“The Total Return Fund handed investors a 12.2% gain in the past year, beating 92% of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The one-month return is 1.8%, outpacing 69% of its competitors.”

Source: Wes Goodman and Susanne Walker, Bloomberg, September 16, 2009.

Bespoke: High-yield spreads fall below pre-Lehman levels
“For the first time since the recovery off the March lows, high yield credit spreads fell below their ‘pre-Lehman’ levels. Based on data from Merrill Lynch indices, high yield bonds are currently yielding 835 basis points more than comparable Treasuries. This compares to a level of 854 bps on 9/12/08, which was the Friday before Lehman’s bankruptcy.

“While credit market benchmarks have mostly recovered to ‘pre-Lehman’ levels, equities still have a ways to go. Even after the historically strong rally off the March lows, all three major indices and all ten major S&P 500 sectors remain below their ‘pre-Lehman’ levels. While the S&P 500 has gained nearly 60% from its lows, the index would still have to rally an additional 17.4% to reach its level from the Friday before Lehman’s bankruptcy.”

Source: Bespoke, September 16, 2009.

CNN Money: Insiders sell like there’s no tomorrow
“Can hundreds of stock-selling insiders be wrong?

“The stock market has mounted an historic rally since it hit a low in March. The S&P 500 is up 55%, as US job losses have slowed and credit markets have stabilized.

“But against that improving backdrop, one indicator has turned distinctly bearish: Corporate officers and directors have been selling shares at a pace last seen just before the onset of the subprime malaise two years ago.

“While a wave of insider selling doesn’t necessarily foretell a stock market downturn, it suggests that those with the first read on business trends don’t believe current stock prices are justified by economic fundamentals.

“‘It’s not a very complicated story,’ said Charles Biderman, who runs market research firm Trim Tabs. ‘Insiders know better than you and me. If prices are too high, they sell.’

“Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys, isn’t the only one who has taken note. Ben Silverman, director of research at the InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007.

“Silverman said the ‘orgy of selling’ is noteworthy because corporate insiders were aggressive buyers of the market’s spring dip. The S&P 500 dropped as low as 666 in early March before the recent rally took it back above 1,000.

“‘That was a great call,’ Silverman said. ‘They were buying when prices were low, so it makes sense to look at what they’re doing now that prices are higher.’”

Source: Colin Barr, CNN Money, September 12, 2009.

Bespoke: S&P 500 new highs expanding … from a low base
“Back in late February and early March, we made several references that even though the S&P 500 was trading down to new lows, the number of stocks making new lows wasn’t expanding, which is very positive for the market. As shown in the chart below, at the October low, 84% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made a new low. Then in November, 63% of stocks hit new lows. At the March low, however, only 36% of the stocks in the S&P 500 made new lows.

“Just as the smaller number of stocks making new lows shrunk towards the end of the bear market, as the market rises, investors should be looking for an expansion in the number of stocks making new highs. As shown in the above chart, new highs are expanding, albeit from a low base. In today’s trading, 23 stocks (highlighted below) in the S&P 500 hit a new 52-week high. This is the best daily reading since May 2008. Going forward, if the market continues to rally, investors should watch the new high list for confirmation of the rally. If the new high list fails to keep expanding, it could be an early sign that a correction is in the cards.”

Source: Bespoke, September 15, 2009.

Bespoke: Short interest at lowest level since February 2007
“It just keeps getting lonelier on the short side. As of the end of August, the average short interest as a percentage of float for stocks in the S&P 1500 stood at 6.6%, representing the lowest level since February 2007. Over the last six months, the balance of power has shifted from the sellers to buyers. With the short side now being the loneliest trade, will the roles reverse again over the next six months?”

Source: Bespoke, September 14, 2009.

Bespoke: Financials, Industrials and Materials at most overbought levels in at least a year
“While September was supposed to be a month where the market would at least take a breather, halfway through the month, stocks have done anything but rest. This month, the S&P 500 and most sectors have consistently been trading to new highs for the year on a seemingly daily basis. As a result, the 10-day A/D line for the S&P 500 (not pictured) is near its most overbought levels of the last year. Additionally, Financials, Industrials and Materials are currently at their most overbought levels in at least a year. While these levels do not necessarily mean a decline is imminent, they do indicate that some consolidation is to be expected.”

Source: Bespoke, September 17, 2009.

Doug Kass (TheStreet.com): Bearish arguments are roaring
“I would argue that the bulls are ignoring the emergence of a number of secular headwinds. Here are 10 of them:

1. Deep cost cuts have been mainstay of corporations over the last few years. Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline (like fiscal stimulus), but both have a defined and limited life. Ultimately, top-line growth is needed.

2. Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the labor force. The consumer remains the most significant contributor to domestic growth. Unemployment should remain high, exacerbated by many retiring later in life because their nest eggs have been reduced.

3. The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worth (and confidence) has been damaged and will need to be repaired through time and by higher savings and lower consumption. (The consumer is hurting. Last week I met with a midsized bank’s lending team. The bank is seeing a big mix change toward rising use of their debit cards (where money is in the bank) at the expense of credit cards (where money is then owed).)

4. The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy. The unregulated shadow banking industry is dead, as is the securitization market. All signs indicate that banks will likely remain reluctant to lend to individuals and small businesses. Just try to get a jumbo mortgage today.

5. The effect of the Fed’s monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.

6. While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be probably remain muted. More important, there are few growth drivers to replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.

7. Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn. It might not be as deep as many expect, but it won’t provide much of a contribution to growth.

8. While the public-works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye - most of the current fiscal policy initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.

9. Municipalities have historically provided economic stability during times of economic weakness - no more. They are broadly in disrepair. State sales taxes are being raised all over the country, and so are sin taxes (to shore up municipal finances) on cigarettes, booze and maybe even sugar products.

10. The most important nontraditional headwind is the inevitability of higher marginal tax rates. How will higher individual tax rates affect an already deflated consumer? How will corporations react to higher tax rates? Will rising taxes be P/E multiple benders?

“The liquidity that grew out of the massive government stimulation and the growth in the monetary base is reaching the equity market and our economy. It has been greeted by cheers and almost unnoticeable, brief and shallow pullbacks in stocks, producing a degree of price momentum that is almost reminiscent of the ‘good old days’ in 1999/early 2000. Market participants appear now to have embraced the notion that we are in an economic ’sweet spot’ and that a below-average but self-sustaining domestic recovery is being endorsed.

“With the perspective of the large market rise and dramatic change in sentiment (from dire to positive), there is now little room for disappointment.”

Source: Doug Kass, TheStreet.com, September 14, 2009.

Bill King (The King Report): Be careful about liquidity rally
“The liquidity rally concept is the rationalization that is inducing investors and traders to buy stocks. Nothing else matters right now.”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, September 14, 2009.

Chart of the day (Clusterstock): Fear disappears from the market

“More evidence that investors have gotten very complacent in this market. Not only does the market continue to rally, but the VIX, sometimes called the fear index, is at the lows of the year. There was a brief spike before September, but since then it’s collapsed.”

Source: Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - Business Insider, September 15, 2009.

Andrew Garthwaite (Credit Suisse): Too early to sell
“September may historically be the worst month for equity returns, but it is still too early to go underweight on stocks, says Andrew Garthwaite, global equity strategist at Credit Suisse.

“‘This is the best phase of the economic cycle,’ he says. ‘GDP growth continues to be revised up, yet inflation remains muted. We have introduced a mid-2010 target for the S&P 500 of 1,150.’

“Mr Garthwaite points to earnings upgrades and undemanding valuations and also notes that many economic and market variables are back to pre-Lehman levels.

“Furthermore, there is still plenty of quantitative easing to come, with part of the additional liquidity likely to end up in stocks.

“‘We do not exclude a period of near-term equity consolidation, given that some of our tactical indicators are sending a signal of caution.

“‘But other indicators suggest it is too early to sell. Risk appetite peaks six weeks after it hits euphoria, equity sentiment is in line with its average and insider buying is low but this was the same in 2004. The time to go ‘underweight’ strategically will be when we get the second leg down of a W-shaped recovery.

“‘We see three possible triggers for this: first, a rise in US interest rates, which is not likely to come until the second half of 2010; second, a funding crisis - unlikely until bank loan growth rises strongly; or third, clear signs of China overheating.’”

Source: Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse (via Financial Times), September 8, 2009.

CNBC: Biggs - putting your portfolio to work
“How to invest now, with Barton Biggs, Traxis Partners and CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo.”

Source: CNBC, September 15, 2009.

Bloomberg: Dollar diminishing makes US favorite for high-yield
“Betting against the dollar is becoming the trade investors can’t afford to ignore.

“The US Dollar Index fell last week to the lowest level in a year as price swings in foreign exchange declined, encouraging investors to borrow greenbacks at record low interest rates and buy assets in countries offering yields as much as 8.1 percentage points higher than US deposit rates. Borrowing costs in dollars as measured by London interbank offered rates fell below those of yen and Swiss francs for an extended period for the first time since 1994 during the past three weeks.

“Those carry trades are the most profitable since before 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Borrowing dollars and then selling them is adding pressure on a currency that’s already weakened 14% since March as the budget deficit exceeded $1 trillion, the government sells a record amount of debt and the Federal Reserve floods the financial system with $1.75 trillion to pull the economy out of a recession.

“‘The dollar is the big funding currency,’ said Jonathan Clark, vice chairman of New York-based FX Concepts Inc., the world’s largest currency hedge fund, with $9 billion in assets under management. ‘The reason why people are borrowing the US dollar for carry trade is A: It’s very cheap to fund, and B: The expectation is it’s going to go down.’”

Source: Oliver Biggadike and Ron Harui, Bloomberg, September 14, 2009.

CNBC: Jim Rogers - “I expect a currency crisis or semi-crisis”
“Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Monday that when Lehman Brothers failed he thought ‘thank goodness they’re finally letting somebody collapse’. He said that ‘when somebody fails, you let them fail’, and that former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson ’should have let ten people go bankrupt’.”

Click here for the article.

Source: CNBC, September 14, 2009.

Ian Stannard (BNP Paribas): Swiss National bank intervention
“The Swiss National Bank’s meeting on Thursday could provide the ideal opportunity for a further bout of intervention to weaken the franc, believes Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

“‘The SNB is likely to continue to warn about deflation risks, justifying the need to maintain non-conventional measures,’ he says.

“Mr Stannard notes that BNP Paribas’ Swiss franc trade-weighted index (TWI) is back at the highs of the past six months, which form the upper end of the trading range that has been in place since March.

“‘This extreme level of the TWI coincides with the previous assumed rounds of intervention by the SNB in June.

“‘Given that the SNB’s objective has been to prevent a further appreciation of the franc, the strength of the TWI must be a concern.’

“He also suggests that while the focus of attention has been on the level of the euro against the franc - given the importance of the Swiss trading relationship with the eurozone - this could start to change.

“‘Despite the franc TWI being at its highs, the euro is still above the levels at which the SNB introduced its intervention policy.

“‘But the dollar has continued to trend lower against the franc and is now testing the lows from December 2008.

“‘This suggests that the SNB may also include dollar-franc to a greater degree in any further rounds of intervention.’”

Source: Ian Stannard, BNP Paribas (via Financial Times), September 16, 2009.

Bloomberg: Canadian dollar climbs to 11-month high on growth optimism
“Canada’s dollar rose to the strongest level since October versus its US counterpart as speculation the global recession is over encouraged appetite for higher-yielding assets.

“‘Risk is back in the market,’ said Andrew Chaveriat, a technical analyst at BNP Paribas SA in New York. The Canadian dollar is ‘catching up a bit’, he added.

“The gain in Canada’s dollar prompted speculation the nation’s central bank is intervening to weaken it. A Bank of Canada spokeswoman, Stephanie Bento, said any intervention would be announced on the central bank’s website.

“‘We did hear those rumors early this morning,’ said Blake Jespersen, director of foreign exchange in Toronto at BMO Capital Markets, a unit of Canada’s fourth-largest bank. ‘We think it’s 100 percent untrue. I don’t think the bank has the ammunition or the desire to intervene. This is a story about US dollar weakness across the board.’

“The nation’s central bank hasn’t done transactions in foreign-exchange markets to affect the currency’s value since 1998, even with the dollar setting record highs and lows against the greenback over the past decade.”

Source: Chris Fournier, Bloomberg, September 17, 2009.

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Anti-gold interests facing defeat
“Jason Hamlin, founder of GoldStockBull, has put forward four major developments which he thinks all gold-believers should be aware of:

(1) China (today everything seems to depend on China) is encouraging its citizens to buy (accumulate) gold and repatriate any gold held in London. As recently as 2002, the possession of gold in private hands was prohibited in China - now we’re seeing a dramatic reversal of policy. ‘It’s glorious to buy and hold gold’ is the official stance in China.

(2) Barrick Gold Corp. has decided to begin closing its huge gold hedge book. This will entail Barrick buying millions of ounces of gold which they have shorted. Barrick is preparing for a higher gold price. The word I hear is that Barrick has bought 2 million ounces of gold and is expected to buy another 3 million ounces. This is supposed to cut its hedge book by half.

(3) COMEX Commercial traders [usually gold mining companies] have taken the largest net short position ever against gold and silver. Normally this huge addition to supply would knock the precious metals down. But this has not happened, at least, so far. Evidently, buying in gold and silver has been powerful enough to pressure the commercial shorts. They will have to put out more shorts (a dangerous move) or be forced to cover.

(4) Gold and silver have slipped into backwardation. This occurs when the price of a commodity for immediate (spot) delivery is higher than its price for future delivery. One interpretation is that people who control the supply of the metals can’t be persuaded to part with their supply, and this suggests that there is more demand for immediate physical delivery than there is an immediate supply of metals.

“With the news that China and Russia are scrambling to build up their supply of gold, this could mean that the demand for gold is intense.

“Adding to the above, the central banks have now turned into net buyers of gold rather than sellers.

“All in all, the precious metals situation is now fascinating, and the anti-gold interests (those who create fiat currency, i.e. the central banks and the inflationists) may, at last, be facing an inglorious defeat.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, September 17, 2009.

Reuters: Central banks seen becoming net gold buyers-expert
“Central banks are expected to buy 6 million to 10 million ounces of gold annually due to currency uncertainties after being net sellers in past decades, Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group, told the Denver Gold Forum on Monday.

“In a keynote speech kicking off North America’s biggest gold conference, which runs through Wednesday, Christian gave what he said was a conservative forecast for gold to average $914 an ounce over the next 10 years.

“‘What we are seeing is that central banks are making the transition from large net sellers to large net buyers,’ Christian said.

“‘You will see a net buying of 6 (million) to 10 million ounces per year by central banks, and that is an extremely conservative projection,’ he said.

“Christian said that European central banks appeared to be done with their gold selling, and that central banks in emerging countries which have been building up foreign reserves were now diversifying into gold due to volatility in the dollar and other major currencies.

“Recently, China and other emerging economies have signaled growing interest in gold rather than stockpiling their currency reserves in US dollar-denominated assets.”

Source: Reuters, September 14, 2009.

MoneyNews: Gold expert - sell, sell, sell
“One of London’s leading gold experts has urged his clients to dump their gold and silver holdings.

“John Reade, an analyst at UBS, told investors to erase all their positions until the latest upward price surge ends, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in the London Telegraph.

“Gold has climbed amid the dollar’s drop to a one-year low.

“Reade says futures contracts on New York’s Comex exchange are flashing warning signals. The Comex experienced a surge of 6.4 million ounces in net long contracts last week. Such jumps in the past have on average presaged a 5% drop in gold prices over the next month.

“‘We recommend that nimble investors take profits on any long gold and silver positions, looking to re-enter after a correction,’ Reade says.

“He sees gold slipping to $950 over the next month and then resuming its rally next year.

“The last time Comex long contracts approached last week’s levels was in February 2008, when gold hit its record high and then crashed.”

Source: Dan Weil, MoneyNews, September 15, 2009.

Bespoke: Baltic Dry remains flat as markets continue to rally
“Even as China has recovered significantly from its correction and US markets charge higher, the Baltic Dry Index remains in a downtrend. As shown in the first chart below, the Baltic Dry peaked at the start of June and has headed steadily lower since then. China’s Shanghai Composite peaked about a month later, but it has rallied nicely since the start of September. The Baltic Dry led the fall in China during the summer, so is it now suggesting that China’s recent bounce is a pump fake, or is it just lagging this time around?”

Source: Bespoke, September 17, 2009.

Martin Wolf (Financial Times): Wheel of fortune turns as China outdoes west
“China has emerged as the most significant winner from the global financial and economic crisis. At the end of 2008, many questioned whether China would achieve its growth target of 8% in 2009. Who now dares to do so?

“Cushioned by its more than $2,100 billion (€1,440 billion, £1,260 billion) of foreign currency reserves, huge trade and current account surpluses and a robust fiscal position, Beijing has been able to deploy all its levers over the financial system and the economy.

“Meanwhile, as one senior Chinese participant at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting of ‘the new champions’, in Dalian, noted, ‘the teachers have made big mistakes’. Indeed, any visitor to Asia will recognise the west’s reputation for financial and economic competence is in tatters, while that of China has soared. The wheel of fortune is turning.

“Three immediate questions arise. How has China responded to the crisis? Is its resurgent growth sustainable? How far will its recovery help the world economy?

“The answer to the first question is: astonishingly. According to data reported at the end of last week, industrial output expanded 12.3% in the 12 months to August, up from a 10.8% increase in July. This is the fastest growth for a year.

“Behind this is growth of bank credit at close to 30%, year-on-year, since March 2009. It is no surprise, then, that fixed-asset investment has also been growing at over 30%, year-on-year, since March and by 33% in the year to August.

“Is this growth surge sustainable? In a word, yes. Inevitably, the torrid growth of bank credit and money is spilling over into asset prices, particularly equities. But there is little danger of excessive inflation in an economy with an appreciating currency, fully embedded in a world economy still threatened more by deflation than by inflation, at least in the near term.

“Finally, however successful China is in promoting domestic demand, it will not be the locomotive for the world economy. True, China’s merchandise trade surplus has indeed been narrowing: it was $35 billion in the second quarter, 40% lower than a year earlier. China’s current account surplus is also shrinking: it may be down to 6% of gross domestic product this year, from 11% in 2007.

“Yet, since it still only generates some 7% of world output, China is too small to act as the world’s locomotive. Even halving its external surplus would add only 0.4% to aggregate demand in the rest of the world.”

Source: Martin Wolf, Financial Times, September 13, 2009.

Financial Times: Brussels fears deficits will exceed forecasts
“European governments are at risk of recording even higher budget deficits this year than was thought likely four months ago, the European Commission warned on Monday.

“Presenting its latest economic forecasts for 2009, the Commission said preliminary information indicated that deficits in the 27-nation European Union could be above the average 6% of gross domestic product estimated in May.

“‘This appears to be mainly caused by stronger than expected revenue shortfalls in a number of countries, as output growth and the size of discretionary stimulus measures are broadly in line with the spring forecast,’ the Commission said.

“The warning served as a reminder that the most savage recession in the EU’s 52-year history will inflict lasting damage on the bloc’s public finances and average long-term economic growth.

“Policymakers at the EU’s headquarters believe the emergency measures taken to save the financial system and fight the recession have destroyed all progress made in the first 10 years of European monetary union towards consolidating the public finances.

“According to the Commission’s May forecasts, public debt in the 16-nation eurozone will soar to 77.7% of GDP this year and 83.8% in 2010. Both figures are far higher than the 60% threshold set under EU treaty law for countries aspiring to adopt the euro.

“Private sector economists calculate the picture will be dramatically worse if governments take no remedial action. According to Laurence Boone, economist at Barclays Capital, eurozone public debt would shoot up to 105% of GDP by 2015 if no action were taken and annual inflation would average 2% between 2011 and 2015. Greece’s debt would be 149%, Ireland’s 144%, Spain’s 135% and that of France 106%.

“Some independent economists say the economic damage will end up being worse in Europe than the US, which most European governments hold responsible for having caused the crisis in the first place.”

Source: Tony Barber, Financial Times, September 14, 2009.

Tags: Ben Bernanke, BRIC, Canada, Cboe Volatility Index, Commodities, Corporate Bonds, Economic Sectors, Economic Transition, Emerging Markets, ETF, Federal Reserve Chairman, Gaining Momentum, Global Stock Markets, Gold, Government Bonds, India, Japanese Yen, Lehman Brothers, Low Interest Rates, oil, precious metals, Risky Assets, Stock Market Indices, Tom Toles, Us Dollar Index, Us Stock Market, Volatility Index Vix, Warren Buffett
Posted in Emerging Markets, Gold, Markets | 1 Comment »

Nothing to fear but fears of - Inflation

Friday, September 11th, 2009

James Surowiecki writes in the New Yorker on the subject of inflation, or rather the lack and the fears of it, concluding that we should cross the bridge when we get to it.

The economy is still limping, job losses are still rising, and consumers are still reluctant to open their wallets. So it’s the perfect time to worry about . . . inflation? Apparently so, because, of late, the cries of inflation hawks have grown increasingly loud. Pointing to huge deficit spending, and to the flood of money that the Federal Reserve has sluiced into the economy, they argue that we’re at serious risk of “igniting out-of-control inflation” and bringing about the collapse of the dollar. Unless the Fed starts slowing things down, they say, we’ll face price jumps that qualify as “hyperinflationary” (a word that Senator Charles Grassley, the Iowa Republican, actually used the other week). Most Americans are worrying about keeping their jobs. Now we have to worry about becoming Zimbabwe, too.

…

Of course, you can’t see any of this inflation in the numbers. The Consumer Price Index fell in July, and, over the past year, prices have actually dropped two per cent. And there’s not much sign that inflation is coming down the pike; the price of U.S. inflation-indexed bonds suggests that investors think future inflation will stay low, perhaps around two per cent. So do the remarkably low interest rates on government debt; the U.S. wouldn’t be able to borrow money for ten years at less than four per cent if people thought that double-digit inflation was in the offing.

…

This isn’t to say that cheap money is always good—it has a nasty habit, for one thing, of starting asset bubbles. So, as Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, told Congress in July, once the economy starts growing again the Fed will have to start pulling money back out. But, in any balancing of the current threats to the economy, the danger of stagnation trumps the danger of inflation. Even if we are on the brink of recovery, the last thing we need is for the Fed or the federal government to start embracing a tight-money policy. To do so would risk a reprise of 1937, when, with the economy bouncing back from the depths of the Great Depression, the Fed tightened monetary policy and the government raised taxes, provoking a disastrous downturn that lasted until the Second World War. The Fed does have to make sure that the economy doesn’t go careering off the road. But let’s wait until the car is actually moving forward before we worry about applying the brakes.

Read the complete story here

Tags: Ben Bernanke, Charles Grassley, Cheap Money, Coming Down The Pike, Consumer Price Index, Control Inflation, Deficit Spending, Fed Chairman, Government Debt, Inflation Indexed Bonds, Iowa Republican, James Surowiecki, Low Interest Rates, Nasty Habit, Nothing To Fear, Perfect Time, Price Jumps, Senator Charles Grassley, Stagnation, Trumps
Posted in Markets | No Comments »

Green Shoots or Smoking Weed?

Monday, June 1st, 2009

This post is a guest contribution by Niels Jensen*, chief executive partner of London-based Absolute Return Partners.

Asset bubbles are strange animals. Ideally, you would like to punch the air out of them early before they become a real danger but, in practice, it is not quite so simple. Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan have actually both argued that asset bubbles cannot be detected and monetary policy should therefore not in any way be used to offset suspected bubbles.

I am not sure I agree with the two gentlemen, but that is less relevant for now. What is important to understand is what happens once the asset bubble bursts. In my experience, almost all post-bursting bubbles share two characteristics:

1) At the very least, asset prices revert to the mean, although many actually overshoot on the downside.

2) A long (and often painful) period ensues, where asset prices gradually claw back lost value. History suggests that this period is measured in years and sometimes in decades; never have asset prices recovered from a deflated bubble in just a matter of months.

The recent collapse of residential property prices - at this point still more advanced in the US than in Europe - is a classic asset bubble which is now deflating. The reason I have decided to write about it this month is because the “green shoot” campaigners are missing a hugely important point about the effect that falling US property prices are going to have - not just on the US but also on the global economy.

Recovery will prove temporary

Make no mistake. I always expected and continue to expect an economic revival later this year, which unfortunately will prove temporary. There are many good reasons to expect such a short-term recovery, as I discussed in detail in the April issue of this letter. However, it is what happens afterwards that I worry about. The economic uplift is likely to last no more than one or two quarters after which we will have to face more gloom and doom.

There are at least two reasons property prices are so important to the overall economy. The first reason has to do with leverage. There has been a lot of talk about de-leveraging in recent months, and the consensus seems to be that most of it is now behind us. Perhaps, in the narrowest possible sense, that is correct.

But leverage is not confined to hedge funds and banks. Many private households run heavily levered balance sheets as a result of their home ownership and it is this leverage that is rapidly growing at the moment. Why is that? Because leverage is a function of both the numerator and the denominator and, as American home owners are about to find out for the first time, falling property prices can have a devastating effect on your balance sheet.

Secondly, property wealth has become an important part of many people’s lives. In both the US and the UK (and in numerous other countries as well) many people have directed their savings towards property in recent years, and no small part of the profits have been recycled into the economy through equity withdrawal schemes. This has created a level of consumption which cannot be sustained if property prices do not continue to rise.

Click here for the full report.

* Niels Jensen has 24 years of investment banking, private banking and asset management experience. He founded Absolute Return Partners LLP and is its chief executive partner.

Tags: Absolute Return, Alan Greenspan, Asset Prices, Ben Bernanke, Bubble Bursts, Bursting Bubbles, Campaigners, Economic Revival, Economic Uplift, Executive Partner, Global Economy, Gloom And Doom, Important Point, Many Good Reasons, Niels Jensen, Painful Period, Smoking Weed, Strange Animals, Two Gentlemen, Value History
Posted in Markets | No Comments »

Video Digest: Stress Tests Ad Nauseum

Friday, May 8th, 2009

As to be expected, discussions about the stress tests on the health of the 19 biggest US banks dominated the video airwaves during the past few days, with arguments ranging from whether the tests were necessary to whether they were stressful enough.

For the rest, Warren Buffett held his annual Berkshire shareholders’ jamboree - this year sharing both concern and optimism about the future. And as the nascent stock market rally is looking more tired by the day, the debate intensified on whether this was a “real rally”.

In addition to Buffett and the usual suspects of Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke, commentators featured on camera in this post include Richard Bernstein, Bill Fleckenstein, Nouriel Roubini, Neel Kashkari, Alan Blinder, Russell Napier, Robin Griffiths and Meb Faber.

The selection kicks off with an item in lighter vein - a song entitled “Zombie Bank”, and concludes with a great vintage animation, dating back to 1948, on the profit motive and the part it has played in the development of the US economy.

YouTube: Zombie Bank
“Musical op-ed piece written and performed by John Forster and Tom Chapin.”

Source: YouTube, April 15, 2009.

CNBC: Buffett speaks
“Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, tells CNBC’s Becky Quick he has both concern and optimism about the future.”

Part 1

Part 2

Source: CNBC, May 4, 2009.

Minyanville: Are stress tests necessary?
“What’s the point of a stress test if the government isn’t going to allow banks to fail? Minyanville’s executive editor, Kevin Depew, debates himself to find the answer.”

Source: Minyanville, May 4, 2009.

CNBC: Dr. Doom - stress tests aren’t stressful enough
“Nouriel Roubini, co-founder & chairman at RGE Monitor, also known as Dr. Doom, doesn’t put a lot of credibility into the US bank stress tests. He tells CNBC’s Martin Soong that the tests aren’t stressful enough. Josh Felman, assistant director from the IMF joins in the discussion.”

Source: CNBC, May 7, 2009.

CNBC: Bernanke’s bank structure
“Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Chicago Fed’s Conference on bank structure and competition.”

Part 1

Part 2

Source: CNBC, May 7, 2009.

Charlie Rose: A conversation with Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary

Source: Charlie Rose, May 6, 2009.

Charlie Rose: A conversation with Neel Kashkari, former assistant Treasury Secretary

Source: Charlie Rose, May 7, 2009.

Financial Times: Gillian Tett of Fool’s Gold
“Gillian Tett, the FT’s capital markets editor, talks to Andy Davis, editor of FT Weekend, about the background to her new book, Fool’s Gold, in which she traces the origings of the financial crisis back to innovative work by a small group of bankers in the mid-1990’s and explains how the products they pioneered ultimately enguifed most of the developed world’s biggest financial institutions.”

Source: Financial Times, May 1, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Goldman connection puts NY Fed official in tight spot
“When Goldman Sachs became a bank holding company late last year, New York Fed official Stephen Friedman inadvertently found himself in violation of charter rules. Kate Kelly reports on his efforts to receive a waiver and potential conflicts of interests.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2009..

Yahoo Finance: The financial system - where’s the trust
“A discussion with Elizabeth Warren, Chairwoman, Congressional oversight panel.”

Part 1

Part 2

Source: Tech Ticker, Yahoo Finance, May 6, 2009.

CNBC: Ben Bernanke’s economic outlook
“Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke discusses the current state of the economy and an outlook.”

Source: CNBC, May 5, 2009.

John Authers (Financial Times): Credit less crunched
“Libor’s fall and surveys of lending officers by central banks show that the credit crunch is no longer intensifying.”

Clik here for the article.

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, May 5, 2009.

Financial Times: Markets respond to stress test
“Despite the release of US bank stress test results, market sentiment was most strongly affected on Thursday by a $14 billion US Treasury bond auction, in which the government had to offer higher yields than expected. This trend is worrying Wall Street.”

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, May 7 2009.

Bloomberg: Richard Bernstein says US stocks in “real rally”
“Richard Bernstein, former chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, talks with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt about the outlook for the US equity market. The S&P 500 has rebounded 34% from a 12-year low on March 9 after companies from Wells Fargo & Co. to Ford Motor Co. beat analysts’ earnings estimates by an average 11% since April 7, according to Bloomberg data.”

Source: Bloomberg, May 6, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Earnings season is mostly over - thankfully
First quarters earnings reports have been awful, but not as awful as expected.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2009.

CNBC: Charts - bears still in control
“Western stock indexes still seem to be undergoing a bear-market rally, instead of starting a bull market, Robin Griffiths from Cazenove Capital told CNBC Thursday.”

Source: CNBC, May 7, 2009.

John Authers (Financial Times): Bear market bottoms
“What can we learn from history? Russell Napier, author of ‘Anatomy of the Bear’, talks to John Authers about how his study of historical bear markets can help identify when markets have bottomed out.”

Source: John Authers, Financial Times, May 6, 2009.

Fox Business: Fleckenstein, Altucher & Lindzon - from surviving to thriving in the market

Source: Fox Business, May 4, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Ivy League Investing
“Money manager and author of ‘The Ivy Portfolio’ Meb Faber talks with MarketWatch’s Jonathan Burton about steps investors can take to protect themselves in volatile bear markets.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2009.

Charlie Rose: Future of trade in the global economy
“A conversation about the future of trade in the global economy with Susan Schwab, United States Trade Representative, Jagdish Bhagwati, University Professor at Columbia University and Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, Alan Blinder, Director of Princeton’s Center for Economic Policy Studies and Sherrod Brown, United States Senator from the state of Ohio.”

Source: Charlie Rose, May 5, 2009.

CNBC: China’s next engine for growth
“China’s big move toward social infrastructure spending could turn out to be its engine for growth in next 10-15 years, says Robert Barbera, global economist at Investment Technology Group, speaking to CNBC’s Martin Soong.”

Source: CNBC, May 4, 2009.

CNBC: ECB starts quantative easing
“The European Central Bank began its own version of quantitative easing Thursday, following its interest rate cut. Ken Wattret from BNP Paribas and Stephen Gallo from Schneider Foreign Exchange discussed the move.”

Source: CNBC, May 7, 2009.

CNBC: Obama proposes new tax provisions
“President Barack Obama proposes changing provisions in the tax code that he says encourage US companies to move jobs overseas, as part of a broader package aimed at saving $210 billion over 10 years.”

Source: CNBC, May 4, 2009.

YouTube: Going Places (1948)
“Fun and Facts About America, John Sutherland Productions. Defines the profit motive and dramatizes the part it has played in the economic development of our country. Stresses the need for continued industrial profits if our economic vitality is to endure.”

Source: YouTube, June 6, 2006.

Tags: Answer Source, Ben Bernanke, Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Fleckenstein, Dr Doom, ETF, John Forster, Market Rally, Martin Soong, Minyanville, Neel Kashkari, Nouriel Roubini, Profit Motive, Richard Bernstein, Robin Griffiths, Stress Tests, Tim Geithner, Tom Chapin, Us Bank, Vintage Animation, Warren Buffett
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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (April 13 – 19, 2009)

Sunday, April 19th, 2009

Spring is in the air – at least in the Northern Hemisphere and on global bourses. Last week marked the sixth consecutive up-week for stock markets as investors’ risk appetite returned amid signs of global economies and the financial sector embarking on the road to recovery.

Source: Tom Toles, The Washington Post.

Speculation that the unprecedented stimulus measures are starting to take root saw the safety appeal of government bonds diminishing, despite the buying support from central banks’ buying programs. Similarly, gold bullion struggled to find traction as investors continued to unwind positions. Silver and oil also languished in the red, but copper, other industrial metals and soya beans surged ahead.

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below, courtesy of StockCharts.com. A picture tells a thousand words …

Equity investors breathed a sigh of relief with Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and General Electric (GE) all reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results. Goldie also announced a $5 billion capital raising. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has told banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, Bloomberg reported. This is to ensure the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month.

The quote du jour belongs to Elizabeth Warren, chairperson of the Congressional Oversight Panel on Tarp, who said (as paraphrased by Jon Stewart): “Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell.” Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was in agreement, saying that “… any firm that cannot meet its obligations should bear the consequences of the marketplace. But recent circumstances have been truly extraordinary.”

Global stock markets, led by financials, added to the gains of the rally that commenced on March 10 (see table below). The MSCI World Index gained 2.3% (YTD -4.2%), the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 1.7% (YTD +13.5%) and the S&P 500 Index 1.5% (YTD -3.7%). These indices have risen by 28.0%, 32.6% and 28.5% respectively since the March lows.

Click on the table below for a larger image.

Returns around the world ranged from top performers Ukraine (+15.2%), Denmark (+12.3%) and Norway (+11.4%) to Côte d’Ivoire (-7.0%), Kenya (‑2.8%) and Ecuador (-2.6%) experiencing selling pressure. The Japanese Nikkei 225 Average (-0.1%) was the only major index not making headway, notwithstanding the government’s announcement to support the stock market. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, as supplied by Emerginvest.)

Focusing on the US stock markets, it is interesting to note that stocks across a broad front have participated in the six-week old rally. This is also illustrated by the graph below which, in addition to the customary market breadth measures, shows the outperformance since the March lows of the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF (+40.8%) compared with the S&P 500 Index (+28.5%) – a market-capitalization weighted index.

Source: StockCharts.com

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that the strongest exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the week were the Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (SEA) (+14.8%), iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) (+11.9%) and SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) (+11.2%). On the other end of the performance scale the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) (-6.3%), ProShares Short Financials (SEF) (-4.9%) and United States Oil (USO) (‑4.0%) performed poorly.

On the credit front, the cost of buying credit insurance for US and European companies eased during the past week as shown by the narrower spreads for both the CDX (North American, investment grade) Index (down from 183 to 177) and the Markit iTraxx Europe Index (down from 156 to 146).

Next, a tag cloud of all the articles I read during the past week. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. Key words such as “economic”, “economy”, “market”, “prices” and “China” featured prominently, with others such as “bank” and “government” just a notch behind.

Turning to the stock market again, the chart below from Ron Griess’s The Chart Store puts the movements of the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2007 in perspective.

As shown in the table below, the 50-day moving averages have been cleared comfortably by all the major US indices and the early January highs are the next important targets. As a matter of fact, the Nasdaq Composite Index is already 1.2% above this level. It has to rise by a further 6.7% in order to reach the key 200-day moving average – an indicator often used to distinguish between primary bull and bear markets. On the downside, the levels from where the nascent rally commenced on March 9 should hold in order for the upward trend to remain intact.

From a technical perspective, a primary bear market still exists as long as the major indices remain below the January highs and the 200-day moving averages. Many of the rally’s leaders (indices and sectors) seem to be running into major resistance at these levels and look susceptible to retrace at least a portion of the gains since the March low.

Further evidence of a short-term top in the making comes from a chart showing the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. Altogether 90% of the stocks are currently trading above their 50-day lines – higher than the 80% level typically seen at prior peaks during this bear market. This looks overdone in the short term, but for a primary uptrend to manifest itself the bulk of the index constituents should remain above the 50-day line and also trade above their 200-day averages (26% at the moment).

Source: StockCharts.com

Still on the topic of whether stock markets are running out of gas, Adam Hewison of INO.com prepared a short technical analysis of the S&P 500’s most likely direction and important chart levels. Click here to access the video clip.

The sharp fall (-4.0%) on Friday in Taiwan – one of the strongest stock markets over the past few weeks – may be a precursor of short-term downside potential in other markets. (Click here for a chart.)

“Mistaking a temporary jump for a sustained bull market can be costly. In 41 so-called bear market rallies since 1928 – gains of more than 10% that are later wiped out – equities fell an average 25% after peaking,” warned Laszlo Birinyi (Birinyi Associates) via Bloomberg. “Buying stocks is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red. You might make it, but the odds are not with you.”

David Fuller (Fullermoney) summarized the outlook as follows: “We are seeing nothing less than the greatest global asset reflation in history. This is bullish and all that bearish sentiment tells us that there is still plenty of cash on the sidelines, capable of fuelling additional gains in stock markets and commodities over at least the medium term.

“On a short-term basis, stock markets are technically overbought as the rally continues for a sixth consecutive week. However, this persistent, non-volatile strength provides clear evidence that demand has regained the upper hand. Consequently, downside risk should be limited to a temporary reaction and consolidation of recent gains, before cash on the sidelines supports additional strength.”

Interestingly, analyst earnings revisions for the S&P 1500 Index and most sectors have once again improved during the past week. According to Bespoke, analysts have cut estimates for 772 companies in the S&P 1500 and raised estimates for 290 over the last four weeks. This works out to a net of -482, which represents 32.1% of the Index - the highest level since late September. “… rather than dismiss these numbers as negative, we would continue to note that it’s a start, and before things start to get better, they have to get less worse,” said Bespoke.

Dozens more companies report on their first-quarter results next week, including heavy-weights like Bank of America (BAC), IBM (IBM), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

For more discussion about the direction of stock markets, also see my recent posts “Video-o-rama: Are stock market gains built on solid foundations?“, “Moving averages - indicating bull or bear markets?“, “Technical talk: Buying power not tapped out yet” and “Commodities have turned the corner“. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of April 17, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

Twitter
In case you missed last week’s paragraph on Twitter, I regularly post short comments (maximum 140 characters) on topical economic and market issues on this fascinating medium. For those not doing so already, you can follow my “tweets” by clicking here. The Twitter posts also appear on my Facebook page and in the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.

Economy
“Global business confidence remains very weak. Survey responses regarding sales, hiring, and equipment investment are notably poor. Businesses also report little pricing power,” said the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody’s Economy.com. However, it is encouraging that businesses are becoming steadily less negative about the economy’s prospects later this year.

Fed chairman Bernanke introduced the term “green shoots” a few weeks ago and it has since become a part of economic and financial vocabulary.

Source: The New York Times, April 7, 2009 (hat tip: Northern Trust).

How widespread are the green shoots? I posted a short article last week on a recent research report by the Goldman Sachs Global Economics team, showing that the global economy appears to be stabilizing. To monitor whether economic data are indeed improving they have developed a simple Diffusion Index, recording whether a particular data series has increased or decreased relative to its previous reading. Thirty-four monthly economic data points from the US, Europe, China, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Korea and India are analysed.

After having languished below 50 since the spring of 2007, the Diffusion Index increased to above 50 in February and March. Any reading between 0 and 50 indicates the data are deteriorating, whereas above 50 implies improvement.

When looking regionally, the Goldman Sachs economists believe the worst of the cycle has been seen in the US and the UK, but this does not appear to be the case in Euroland and Japan.

Turning to the US, a snapshot of the week’s economic data is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

April 17
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - improvement in outlook for consumers

April 16
• Housing Starts appear to be establishing a bottom
• Jobless Claims - mixed news
• Philadelphia Fed Factory Survey - is regional progress a precursor of nationwide progress?

April 15
• Lower energy and food prices help to contain inflation
• Factory sector remains significantly weak
• Home Builders Survey shows optimism

April 14
• Retail Sales - story of weak consumer spending
• Wholesale prices report - benign figures
• Small businesses remain gloomy about the future

According to Moody’s Economy.com, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report - covering most of March and early April - indicated that overall economic conditions continued to deteriorate or remained weak. However, nearly half of the 12 reporting Fed Districts noted that in some sectors, conditions appeared to be moderating or stabilizing. Reports of a deceleration in the pace of decline or some levelling off appeared mainly in manufacturing and residential real estate.

Pulling the strings together, Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) said: “… ‘green shoots’ are appearing simultaneously with spring and we will be watching for more signals that will herald the economic recovery. For now, it is not self-sustaining economic growth yet. Stability in the financial sector with clean balance sheets of banks and a working credit machine will be necessary for self-sustaining economic growth. The positive economic signals are small but significant because a further slide in economic activity is not the scenario one would want to envision in the sixth quarter of a recession.”

Back to the global economy, real GDP growth in China slowed from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of last year to 6.1% in the first quarter, the slowest year-over-year growth rate in about nine years.

Source: Financial Times, April 16, 2009.

Jay Bryson (Wachovia Economics Group) commented as follows: “In our view, the Chinese economy probably bottomed in the first quarter and growth should strengthen over the next few quarters. Although the global economy is very weak at present, many economies appear to be nearing inflection points. Therefore, exports should exert less drag on the Chinese economy over the next few quarters.

“In addition, there is still a fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the pipeline in China. Although the Chinese economy is not large enough to have a significant effect on the US economy, stronger growth in China should help American exports on the margin.”

Source: Dilbert.com, April 16, 2009 (hat tip: News N Economics).

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance, April 10, 2009.

The US economic highlights for the week, courtesy of Northern Trust, include the following:

Click here for a summary of Wachovia’s weekly economic and financial commentary.

Markets
The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global markets performed during the past week.

Source: Wall Street Journal Online, April 17, 2009.

Bernard Baruch said: “If you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right.” Hopefully the “Words from the Wise” reviews will assist Investment Postcards readers in gathering the most pertinent facts and making the right calls.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town (from where I will be departing for Newport Beach, California in three days’ time).

Source: Peter Broelman, April 16, 2009.

Robert Shiller (Bloomberg): Depression lurks unless there’s more stimulus
“In the Great Depression of the 1930s the US government had a great deal of trouble maintaining its commitment to economic stimulus. ‘Pump- priming’ was talked about and tried, but not consistently. The Depression could have been mostly prevented, but wasn’t. Ultimately, the reason for this policy failure was inadequate understanding of the relevant economic theory.

“In the face of a similar Depression-era psychology today, we are in need of massive pump-priming again. We appear to be in a much better situation due to the stronger efforts to date. Still, there is a danger that, because of a combination of faulty economic theory and inadequate appreciation of human psychology, as well as deep public anger, we will not continue with such stimulus on a high enough level.

“We desperately need to be persistent, keeping our government response adequate for the problem at hand on a sufficient scale and for sufficient time.

“It is now time to stimulate demand. It is also time to repair the credit system. Those are the two targets that must be hit to get us out of the current economic slump, and to restore confidence. It will be costly to meet both of these targets, and it will require new legislation to give enhanced regulatory powers to deal with a greatly changed financial system, now in a systemic slump.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Robert Shiller, Bloomberg, April 15, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Bank stress tests, explained
“Gauging a bank’s health by seeing how much capital it would need to get through a deep recession seemed a good idea at the time, says WSJ economics editor David Wessel. But things have not gone as planned.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2008.

Bloomberg: Fed said to order banks to stay mum on “stress test” results
“The US Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group, Citigroup and other banks to keep mum on the results of ‘stress tests’ that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.

“The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month.

“‘If you allow banks to talk about it, people are just going to assume that the ones that don’t comment about it failed,’ said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia.

“Regulators are using the tests to determine whether the 19 biggest banks have enough capital to cover loan losses during the next two years if the economy shrinks, unemployment surges and housing prices keep declining. The tests are a linchpin of the plan Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced in February to bolster confidence in the nation’s banks and restore financial-market stability.”

Source: Bradley Keoun and Scott Lanman, Bloomberg, April 10, 2009.

CNBC: Bove & Ely - bank crisis over?
“Better than expected results from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Citi has investors wondering whether financials have turned a corner, with Dick Bove, Rochdale Securities and Bert Ely, Ely & Company.”

Source: CNBC, April 17, 2009.

CEP News: Fed’s beige book reveals glimmers of hope
“The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book revealed all 12 central bank districts saw weakening economic activity in the previous six weeks. However, the detailed report released Wednesday said five districts reported the pace of economic contraction was moderating.

“The manufacturing sector continues to suffer in most areas of the United States.

“The pharmaceutical industry in Boston and Chicago Fed regions saw solid demand and in the Dallas region, orders for petrochemical products are rising.

“The US real estate industry saw some small signs of improvement as well. While most districts reported depressed conditions, low mortgage rates and home prices meant some regions were reporting more buyers.

“An improvement in home sales was registered in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City and San Francisco area reports.

“The nonresidential real estate industry, however, was weak across the board.

“There was an increase in home loan demand in Kansas City, New York and Richmond regions. However, most areas reported meager demand for loans, and increasingly strict requirements for commercial loans.

“As for the labour market, the report read, ‘reports of layoffs, reductions in work hours, temporary factory shutdowns, branch closures and hiring freezes remained widespread across Districts.’

“In agriculture, most areas reported improving planting and harvesting conditions, save the Dallas and San Francisco area which are experiencing drought. Severe losses for dairy farmers in the Chicago and Dallas districts were also reported.

“All districts reported downward pressures on prices.

“All the data in the report was taken on or before April 6.

“The Beige Book is the central bank’s summary of economic news over roughly the past six weeks from the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts.”

Source: Megan Ainscow, CEP News, April 15, 2009.

CNBC: Bernanke speaks - the financial crisis
“Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke discusses bank mergers, mortgage crises, the stimulus package and consumer confidence at Morehouse College in Georgia.”

Part 1:

Part 2:

Source: CNBC, April 14, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Bernanke’s speech
“Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Moreh