Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (March 23 – 29, 2009)

Sunday, March 29th, 2009

Following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “money printing” announcement of last week, the action stayed on Capitol Hill with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner detailing his Public Private Investment Program (PPIP) as well the initial salvo on “new rules of the game” for the US’s broken system of financial regulation.

The US Treasury on Monday morning announced its highly-anticipated Private Public Investment Program (PPIP), rekindling investors’ hopes that the worst might be over for the beleaguered banking sector and the global economy is close to a bottom.

Up to $1.0 trillion will be spent in an attempt to support the balance sheets of financial institutions by removing toxic assets - mostly mortgage-backed securities. The Treasury plans to invest between $75 billion to $100 billion from its existing Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), and also to establish a separate initiative that will use the Fed’s Term Asset-backed Securities Lending Facility (TALF) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) funding to finance the PPIP.

Source: About.com

In reaction to the Obama administration’s plan, global stock markets extended their gains and the US dollar reclaimed a stronger footing, but government bonds suffered from indigestion on issuance worries and the haven appeal of commodities waned. The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below, courtesy of StockCharts.com.

Stock markets, led by financials, surged on the unveiling of the Treasury’s plan to deal with troubled assets, adding to the gains of the rally that commenced on March 10 (see table below). The Dow Jones Industrial Index moved up 497 points (+6.8%) on Monday, its fifth largest one-day point gain and 23^rd biggest one-day percentage gain on record.

Although stocks succumbed to profit-taking towards Friday’s close, indices nevertheless managed to register a third straight week of gains - only the third time since the bear market began 78 weeks ago. With two trading days to go, March has the potential of producing the third best monthly return for the broad market since 1950.

Elsewhere in the world stocks also performed strongly, with the MSCI World Index gaining 4.4% (YTD -10.4%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ahead by 6.9% (YTD +4.3%). These indices have risen by 19.8% and 21.8% respectively since the low of March 9. Returns ranged from top-performers Peru (+17.4%), India (+12.6%) and Hong Kong (+10.0%) to Uganda (-5.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (-4.7%) and Bangladesh (-4.4%), which are still languishing in the red.

The Shanghai Composite Index (+3.9%) had another good week and remains at the top of the field for the year to date with a 30.1% gain in US dollar terms. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, in local currency terms, as supplied by Emeginvest.)

Emerging markets are showing mature markets a clean pair of heels, as can be seen from the rising trend line of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index relative to the Dow Jones World Index since late October. The fact that developing countries are now outperforming the developed ones is a sign that global investors are beginning to take more risk - a necessary ingredient for stock markets in general to improve further.

Source: StockCharts.com

As far as US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are concerned, John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that the strongest funds this week were Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN) (+32.1%), Market Vectors Solar Energy (KWT) (+25.8%) and iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) (+20.8%). On the other end of the performance scale United States Natural Gas (UNG) (-12.6%), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) (‑4.6%) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) (-3.4%) performed poorly.

Among the ten US economic groups, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) (+12.3%) led the way, with defensive funds such as Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) (+3.0) and Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) (+1.8%) falling behind, as one would expect in a rising market.

In the coming week, as reported by the New York Times, the US administration is likely to extend more short-term aid to General Motors and Chrysler, but impose a strict deadline for bondholders and union workers to make concessions that would help the ailing automakers become viable businesses and avert bankruptcy.

Also on the agenda next week, is the summit of the Group of 20 in London - a “make or break event”, according to George Soros (via Reuters). In addition to the one-time increase of the IMF’s resources, there ought to be substantial annual special drawing rights (SDR) issues, say $250 billion, as long as the global recession lasts, he said. SDRs are an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency.

Next, a quick textual analysis of my week’s reading. No surprises here with key words such as “banks”, “market”, “assets” and “plan” featuring prominently.

The nagging question remains: is the stock market rally for real, or is it just an upward correction in a bigger bear market? The worrying aspect is the rapidity with which the price increases have occurred. To gauge just how “violent” it has been, Mark Hulbert (MarketWatch) compared the rally since the March 9 lows to a composite of the stock market’s behavior over the first two weeks of all bull markets since 1900. The graph below indicates that the market is perhaps in need of catching its breath.

Regarding specific “targets”, Adam Hewison of INO.com prepared a short technical analysis presentation dealing with key levels. Click here to view the clip. As shown in the table below, the 50-day moving averages have been cleared for all the major US indices and the early January highs (not shown) are the next targets. On the downside, the levels from where the nascent rally commenced on March 9 should hold in order for the upward trend to endure.

Kevin Lane, technical analyst of Fusion IQ, said: “We think the S&P 500 can still rally up to the 850-860 in the near term on the heels of the unwinding of the deeply oversold conditions, the large piles of sideline liquidity, and additional money managers are allocating to stocks so as not fall too far behind their benchmarks. At the aforementioned S&P 500 level some more aggressive profit-taking is likely to ensue and it may be a good time to take some chips off the table (i.e. lock in some profits). We would then look to reallocate on the next aggressive pullback.”

The graph below shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. Altogether 66% of the stocks are currently trading above their 50-day lines. This is getting close to the 80% (overbought) level seen at prior peaks during this bear market.

Source: StockCharts.com

Short-term movements aside, more bulls are coming to the fore by the day. According to Bloomberg, Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, said the next bull market rally has begun. Also, Barton Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley who now runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners, last week predicted the S&P 500 may jump by 30%-50%. Similarly, Jeff Saut, strategist at Raymond James, argued that the “odds are pretty good stocks have seen their lows”.

From across the pond, London-based David Fuller (Fullermoney) said: “I feel that it is a defining rally …. increasing evidence that the bear market mostly ended last November. However, while Wall Street is the big elephant in the room, casting a large shadow in terms of influence, it is certainly not the leader. Fullermoney themes, led by Asian emerging markets and South American resources markets, definitely bottomed out in October and November. Many have also gone on to complete base formations.

“In the short-term, stock markets are technically overbought so we can expect a pause and consolidation. However, if the S&P 500 Index can hold onto approximately half of its gains from this month’s lows, this would provide further evidence of recovery potential for the medium to longer term.”

On the other hand, Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters), who has been studying markets since the 1950s, remains bearish: “The most helpful insights I’ve received during the course of this bear market are the Lowry’s statistics and comments. From the latest Lowry’s statistics I can see that although the Buying Power Index (demand) has risen sharply, the Selling Pressure Index (supply) has given ground rather grudgingly. Normally, if we were at the start of a new bull market, Selling Pressure should be collapsing. It is not.

“The conclusion is that there remains a surprising amount of Selling Pressure (supply) for this bear market advance to wade through. This is typical bear market rally action. Normally, prior to the start of a new bull market there will be an extended period in which the Selling Pressure Index slumps, indicating that sellers have exhausted their desire to sell. The inference is that we are experiencing a purely technical situation …”

One of the great concerns for the stock market rally is that the credit markets, the target of the rescue operations, are still far from “normal”. This was again seen during the past week when the US 30-day Treasury Bills dipped below zero on Thursday.

I believe stock markets are in a bottoming phase, but that this may take a while to play out. This is not a juncture at which one should go all-out bullish or bearish. Taking one step at a time, the next hurdle is the release of potentially ugly earnings and guidance announcements in April. By then a clearer picture should also start emerging on the results of the Fed’s medicine and whether credit markets are thawing and confidence is beginning to improve.

For more discussion about the direction of stock markets, also see my recent posts “Video-o-rama: Risk appetite rekindled on hope of better days“, “Stock markets: Keep an eye on confidence measures” and “Technical Talk: Stocks nearing short-term resistance“. (And do make a point of listening to Donald Coxe’s webcast of March 20, which can be accessed from the sidebar of the Investment Postcards site.)

Economy
“Global businesses remain remarkably pessimistic. Businesses say that sales fell sharply last week to a new record low and pricing power continues to evaporate as close to one third of businesses say they are cutting prices for their goods and services,” said the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody’s Economy.com.

According to RGE Monitor, the World Trade Organization said the collapse in global demand would drive trade volumes down by 9% in 2009 - the biggest contraction since World War II. Trade in developed countries would fall by 10% while in developing countries it would shrink by 2-3%. The fall in global trade in 2009 will be the first negative annual decline since 1982 led by the contraction in global growth, slump in manufacturing activity and capex, and crunch in trade finance. This might be exacerbated by growing protectionist measures around the world.

European business confidence has never been as dark and is near record lows, as indicated by the March Ifo Business Survey for Germany.

On a light-hearted note, the Financial Times reported last week that lingerie sales in Britain were looking better than the retail sector as a whole. One CEO in the industry told the FT that couples were staying home more and women were investing in “adventurous apparel” to cheer themselves up during the economic downturn. (Hat tip: US Global Investors - Weekly Investor Alert.)

A snapshot of the week’s US economic data is provided below. (Click on the dates to see Northern Trust’s assessment of the various data releases.)

March 27, 2009
• Consumer spending in Q1 most likely to show an increase

March 26, 2009
• Minor Q4 GDP revisions, corporate profits plunge
• Jobless claims - persistent upward trend remains in place

March 25, 2009
• New home sales - notable pickup in sales, but more is necessary
• Durable goods orders - glimmer of strength emerges but it is tentative

March 24, 2009
• Home prices - meaningful turnaround?

March 23, 2009
• Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Program - aims to unclog credit markets and promote credit extensions
• Existing home sales advance - noteworthy for several reasons

The past week witnessed a trend of better-than-feared economic reports. Of the twelve reports released, only three were weaker than the consensus forecast. Bespoke said: “While none of these reports can be classified as ‘good’, the fact that they are beating expectations is a positive sign. The next test will come this week when we get the first look at reports for the month of March. Will the relative strength follow through, or was the recent string of reports just an aberration?”

“We’ve passed the period where every indicator is plummeting, and that’s good news,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight (via The Wall Street Journal). “We may not be exactly at the turning point, but we’re getting pretty close to it.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2009.

What are the policy actions required in the US and abroad to lead to a recovery of the global economy and prevent an L-shaped global near-depression? Nouriel Roubini (RGE Monitor) summarized the following steps:

• Much more massive unorthodox monetary policy easing;
• Much more fiscal stimulus;
• Resolution of the banking crisis via a takeover of insolvent institutions and recapitalization and removal of toxic assets from the solvent but illiquid and undercapitalized ones;
• Actions to reduce the credit crunch and restore credit growth to creditworthy firms and households;
• Direct reduction - rather than restretching - of the debt burden of insolvent households;
• Tripling of IMF resources and financial help to emerging-market economies that are at risk of a liquidity crisis or a broader financial crisis; and
• Other measures of regulatory forbearance to reduce the procyclicality of the credit cycle (appropriate changes to mark-to-market, reduction in capital adequacy ratios, reduction of the countercyclical role of downgrades by rating agencies).

“Avoiding the L is possible, but it will require much more coherent and aggressive policy actions in the US, China and all over the world,” concluded Roubini.

Week’s economic reports
Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Date	Time (ET)	Statistic	For	Actual	Briefing Forecast	Market Expects	Prior
Mar 23	10:00 AM	Existing Home Sales	Feb	4.72M	4.43M	4.45M	4.49M
Mar 25	8:30 AM	Durable Goods Orders	Feb	3.4%	-2.5%	-2.5%	-5.2%
Mar 25	8:30 AM	Durables, Ex-Transportation	Feb	3.9%	-2.1%	-2.0%	-5.9%
Mar 25	10:00 AM	New Home Sales	Feb	337K	305K	300K	322K
Mar 25	10:30 AM	Crude Inventories	03/20	+3300K	NA	NA	+1942K
Mar 26	8:30 AM	Initial Claims	03/21	652K	645K	650K	644K
Mar 26	8:30 AM	Q4 GDP - Final	Q4	-6.3%	-6.6%	-6.6%	-6.2%
Mar 26	8:30 AM	GDP Price Index	Q4	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Mar 27	8:30 AM	Personal Income	Feb	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Mar 27	8:30 AM	Personal Spending	Feb	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	1.0%
Mar 27	9:55 AM	Michigan Sentiment	Mar	57.3	57.0	56.8	56.6

Source: Yahoo Finance, March 27, 2009.

In addition to an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank (Tuesday, April 2), the US economic highlights for the week include the following:

Source: Northern Trust

Click here for a summary of Wachovia’s weekly economic and financial commentary.

Markets
The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global markets performed during the past week.

Source: Wall Street Journal Online, March 27, 2009.

Lau-Tzu said: “Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Wise words indeed, but hopefully the “Words from the Wise” reviews will assist Investment Postcards readers with their research to cast some light on the lie of the investment land.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town (where I am about to embark on a long-haul flight to New York and San Diego).

Source: Walt Handelsman

CNBC: Geithner & toxic assets
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner discusses his plan to deal with financial institutions’ toxic assets, with CNBC’s Erin Burnett.”

Part 1

Part 2

Source: CNBC, March 23, 2009.

CEP News: US Treasury unveils PIPP
“The US Treasury announced Monday morning it will spend up to $1.0 trillion in a bid to provide support to the balance sheets of financial institutions and support the ‘toxic debt’ market, which includes mostly mortgage-backed securities.

“The US Treasury will invest between $75 billion to $100 billion from its existing Troubled Asset Relief Program, and it plans to set up a separate initiative which will use the Federal Reserve’s Term Assets Backed Securities Lending Facility and FDIC funding to finance the highly anticipated Private Public Investment Program (PPIP).

“Five different private public funds will bid on toxic assets and sell them to the broader public. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will guarantee private-sector loans for these purchases, while the US Government will invest side by side with private equity using taxpayer capital.

“In a press conference following the official announcement, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he expects significant interest from the private sector, a sentiment which was confirmed by PIMCO’s Bill Gross following the announcement.

“Geithner said that while there is no doubt that the US government is taking risk with the PPIP, the taxpayer stands to make substantial returns on the investments. He also said that the Treasury should be able to implement the PPIP quickly.”

Source: CEP News, March 23, 2009.

BCA Research: Some hope for the US bank sector
“The Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) is a significant positive step forward in restructuring the troubled US banking sector.

“The Treasury confirmed earlier this week its intention to remove toxic ‘legacy’ assets from bank balance sheets in order to improve the health of financial institutions and restore the flow of credit throughout the economy.

“Perhaps the most nagging issue facing policymakers in their efforts to solve the credit crisis has been what price to pay banks for their toxic assets. Too low a price would prompt further significant writedowns and could lead to additional bank failures. Too high a price would cheat taxpayers and reinforce previous bad investment decisions. The Treasury’s plan attempts to solve the issue by creating a public-private partnership, which determines asset prices using an auction process, while at the same time ensuring adequate financing (backed by the FDIC) and allowing the taxpayer to share in some of the upside.

“The plan does not directly support home prices, but it may stem the slide in real estate assets held by the banks. Even if the purchase of legacy assets leads to further writedowns, the government stands ready to contribute additional equity capital through its Capital Assistance Program (CAP) to maintain the bank as a going concern. Thus, creeping nationalization remains a possibility for those banks with a high proportion of legacy assets. Bank bonds, however, would seem to be well supported under this plan.”

Source: BCA Research, March 25, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: Will the removal of assets make them any less toxic?
“Barrons Bob O’Brien talks about how the government will try to help the ailing economy by helping banks with toxic assets. This raises many questions including whether government help will chill public-private initiative.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2008.

Nouriel Roubini (RGE Monitor): Obama’s toxic-asset plan shows promise
“So to clarify my view point: I see the Geithner plan as being relevant to banks that are solvent. For those that are found - after stress tests - to be insolvent I see as the proper solution to nationalize them and clean them up to prepare them for reprivatization.

“The stress test should do a triage between banks that are illiquid and undercapitalized but solvent given the provision of capital and liquidity and those that, under a reasonable stress scenario are effectively insolvent.

“Those that are insolvent should be nationalized.

“Those that are solvent will still have many toxic assets that need to be disposed of; and the Geithner plan provides a way to properly dispose of the toxic assets of solvent banks.

“So my partial support of the Geithner plan - with all the appropriate caveats - is consistent with the complementary idea of nationalizing the insolvent financial institutions. The bad assets of insolvent banks that are nationalized could be separated from the good assets and then worked out by the government; or they could be sold to private investors through an auction mechanism along the lines of the Geithner plan; or they could be sold - together with the good assets - to the investors purchasing a privatized bank that was temporarily privatized (along the lines of the Indy Mac deal where the investors purchasing the bank received a government guarantee on the bad assets after a first loss).”

Source: Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor, March 24, 2009.

Tech Ticker (Yahoo Finance): James Galbraith - Geithner plan “extremely dangerous”, banks “massively corrupted”
“Professor James Galbraith didn’t pull any punches on TechTicker this. He hates the Geithner plan, calling it ‘extremely dangerous’. He says the banks may game the plan to bid up the prices for their own crap assets and that getting bad assets off their books won’t get them lending again. Like Paul Krugman, Galbraith thinks the FDIC should just put the banks into receivership and have the banks’ subordinated bondholders pick up some of the cost of restructuring them.”

Part 1: Getting crap assets off bank books won’t save economy

“Aaron Task, TechTicker: Like it or not, many people seem to be resigned to the idea there’s no alternative to the public-private investment fund scheme Treasury Secretary Geithner detailed this morning.

“That’s hogwash, says University of Texas professor James Galbraith, author of The Predatory State. Of course there’s an alternative: FDIC receivership of insolvent banks.

“So why isn’t the Obama administration pushing for FDIC receivership? ‘Political influence of big banks,’ the economist says.”

Part 2: Massive corruption

Source: Tech Ticker, Yahoo Finance, March 23, 2009.

Bloomberg: Nobel Prize winners clash on prospects of Geithner’s plan
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has a good chance of succeeding with his plan to cleanse banks of toxic assets, says Michael Spence, co-winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics. Paul Krugman, the newest laureate, is so sure Geithner will fail that he’s full of ‘despair’.

“Even winners of the highest awards in economics can’t always be right. Which prediction proves correct depends in part on whether private investors can be enticed to bid on as much as $1 trillion of illiquid loans and securities that banks are now stuck with.

“‘This program is crucially dependent on the private sector as participants and price setters,” said Spence, who shared the Nobel Prize with George Akerlof and Joseph Stiglitz for a theory that found some government intervention can make markets more efficient. ‘It could work,’ Spence said in a telephone interview yesterday.

“That’s not an opinion shared by 2008 Nobel laureate Krugman. ‘The real problem with this plan is that it won’t work,’ Krugman, said in his New York Times opinion column yesterday.

“Geithner appears to be going back to the ‘cash for trash’ approach of his predecessor as Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, Krugman said. ‘This is more than disappointing. In fact, it fills me with a sense of despair.’

“Instead of financing the purchase of illiquid assets, the government should guarantee many bank debts, take control of ‘insolvent’ firms and clean up their books, similar to what Sweden did in the 1990s, Krugman said.

“While Spence, a Stanford University professor and former business-school dean, has more confidence in Geithner, even he isn’t positive the Treasury secretary can pull it off.

“The Treasury plan ‘is a little complex to implement,’ Spence said. ‘I assume the Treasury has done its homework, and has people lined up’ to commit private capital to Geithner’s public-private partnerships, he said.

“Stiglitz, speaking at a conference in Hong Kong today, said the plan ‘risks a major increase in our national debt.’

“‘You can take the bad assets off the banks, but where are they going to go?’ said Stiglitz, who served as chairman of former President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers. ‘The one place for them to go is to the taxpayers.’”

Source: Scott Lanman and Vivien Lou Chen, Bloomberg, March 24, 2009.

Bill King (The King Report): TAPS - creating a derivative on derivatives
“Geithner’s plan effectively creates ‘calls’ on banks’ toxic assets. The US taxpayer will underwrite losses in this program. The call premium will be the private equity risk; the buyer gets the upside appreciation. The taxpayer provides the funding/leverage.

“Bill Gross sees private investor risk of 4% to 5%. This is the call premium for the toxic assets.

“Let’s think through this plan and the probable consequences.

“Everyone knows that solons are trying to engineer massive asset inflation. So if we are running a bank why would we sell any asset that has a chance to reflate?

“We would only sell assets that we deem hopeless. Are there enough private equity patsies to buy calls on assets that we deem have a low probability of increasing substantively in value?

“Most call buyers do not intend or wish to own the underlying assets. They are interested in a levered gain. So even if the toxic assets are inflated enough in value to produce a gain for the ‘call’ buyers, what patsies will appear as a dumping ground for the call buyers?

“Geithner’s toxic asset scheme is a repo with a call option. And unless end-user patsies appear at some point, the toxic assets will return to sender and the US taxpayer.

“We are in this mess due to excess derivatives and leverage. Ironically or absurdly, Geither’s toxic asset plan & solution (TAPS) creates a derivative on derivatives (toxic paper) and increases the leverage on levered toxic assets! You can’t make up stuff like this.

“Unfortunately for solons their expediency just delays the inevitable negatives. Solons have created extremely positive expectation for the TAPS. If the scheme does not go exceptionally well, the consequences will not be pretty … BTW, $1 trillion is not nearly enough.

“The first TAPS auction will probably go well because solons will exert intense pressure on the community to play nice. Entities that are already adjuncts of the Fed or Treasury, like PIMCO and Black Rock, will be subjected to enormous pressure to stand and deliver.”

Source: Bill King, The King Report, March 24, 2009.

CEP News: FDIC’s Bair says some US banks could be beyond help
“Federal Deposit and Insurance Corporation (FDIC) head Sheila Bair said Monday that some US financial institutions may be beyond help from US government agencies, and some banks will close.

“In a conference call with reporters, Bair touted the US Treasury’s plan introduced this morning to remove toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets.

“The public/private partnership to buy these assets and resell them to the public won’t necessarily be a 50/50 split, she said.

“Bair said the highest priority will be given to high-risk real estate loans, because the problems are with these assets.

“She said the most difficult part of the program will be to price the assets properly, but that government agencies will find the best possible structure to do so, adding that she expects the program will be profitable.”

Source: CEP News, March 24, 2009.

The New York Times: Battles over reform plan lie ahead
“Outlining a far-reaching proposal on Thursday to rebuild the nation’s broken system of financial regulation, the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, fired the opening salvo in what is likely to be a marathon battle.

“‘Our system failed in fundamental ways,’ Mr. Geithner told the House Financial Services Committee. ‘To address this will require comprehensive reform. Not modest repairs at the margin, but new rules of the game.’

“On the surface, both the lawmakers who listened to the Treasury secretary and the financial industry’s lobbying groups made it sound as if they completely agreed with Mr. Geithner’s call for what he described as ‘better, smarter tougher regulation.’

“But in fact industry groups are already mobilizing to block restrictions they oppose and win new protections they have wanted for years. Even though Mr. Geithner carefully avoided specific details, laying out mostly broad principles for overhauling the system, financial industry groups are identifying issues they plan to pursue and lining up well-connected lobbyists and publicists to help make their cases.

“If history is any guide, Mr. Geithner’s proposals will start an equally intense battle among the regulatory agencies themselves - including the alphabet soup of banking regulators, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve - to stay in business and enhance their authority.

“Hedge funds and private equity funds, which have been almost entirely unregulated, would have to register with the SEC and tell it about their risk-management practices. Many financial derivative instruments, like credit-default swaps, would come under supervision for the first time.

“Mr. Geithner’s most specific proposal, which Democratic lawmakers hope to pass in the next few weeks, would allow the federal government to seize control of troubled institutions whose collapse or bankruptcy might jeopardize the broader financial system.”

Source: Edmund Andrews, The New York Times, March 26, 2009.

CNBC: JPMorgan’s Dimon on meeting with Obama
“Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, sits down for an exclusive interview with CNBC’s Erin Burnett. Dimon discusses the meeting he and other bank CEOs had with President Obama.”

Source: CNBC, March 27, 2009.

News N Economics: Real money supply: surging in some countries, not so much in others
“The Fed’s recent and extreme policies have made people nervous about inflation. They should be, but just not right now. Key central banks recently added hydrogen to their engines in the form of quantitative easing, causing high-powered money to surge. However, the multiplier is collapsing, and therefore, the new base is simply a measure to keep the money supply afloat. Some economies, though, are showing worrisome trends in their money growth rates.

“The chart below illustrates the 6-month annualized growth rate of the broad measure of real money in the US, the UK, Japan, and the Eurozone. In spite of the massive surge in the US monetary base, 231% over the last 6 months, the real US money supply grew just 22.6% over that same period. Can you imagine what would have happened had the Fed not eased so substantially? Troublesome deflation. The money multiplier is collapsing as banks hoard cash and consumers and firms pull back.

“Furthermore, like the Fed, the Bank of England (BoE) is engaged in quantitative easing, resulting in a similar 6-month money growth rate, 22.8%. The ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are still increasing their broader measures of real money on a 6-month basis, but at a much slower rate. Admittedly, the BoJ is engaging in alternative policy measures, but the ECB and the BoJ are not pulling out all of the ‘easing stops’ as are the Fed and the BoE.”

Source: Rebecca Wilder, News N Economics, March 24, 2009.

Reuters: Soros - G20 a “make or break” event for markets
“The Group of 20 nations meeting next week is a ‘make or break event’ for the global markets, investor George Soros said on Wednesday.

“‘Unless it comes up with practical measures to support the countries at the periphery of the global financial system, markets are going to suffer another sinking spell just as they did on February 10, 2009, when the authorities failed to produce practical measures to recapitalize the United States banking system,’ Soros said in testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“Soros said President Barack Obama could help make the G20 meeting a success by raising a possible solution that would involve increasing the amount that developing countries - from Eastern Europe to Africa - can effectively borrow from the International Monetary Fund.

“The urgent task of re-inflating the global economy has to be carried out mainly by the IMF, ‘imperfect and beleaguered as it is, because it is the only institution available,’ Soros said.

“While the IMF’s resources were likely to be doubled at the G20 meeting of big developed and developing countries, that would not provide a systemic solution for the developing world, Soros said.

“But a systemic solution was readily available in the form of special drawing rights (SDRs), an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency.

“In addition to the one-time increase of the IMF’s resources, there ought to be substantial annual SDR issues, say $250 billion, as long as the global recession lasts, he said.”

Source: Reuters, March 25, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Minor Q4 GDP revisions, corporate profits plunge
“Real GDP is estimated to have dropped at an annual rate of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008. This is virtually unchanged from the earlier estimate of a 6.2% drop of real GDP. In 2008, real GDP increased 1.1% after a 2.03% increase in 2007.

“On a Q4-to-Q4 basis, the 0.85% drop in real GDP in the fourth quarter is the first decline in real GDP since the 1990-91 recession. The economy is expected to post another sharp quarterly reduction in real GDP in the first quarter of 2009 (-6.1%), with these two quarterly declines chalking up to be the weakest quarters of the current recession.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, March 26, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Consumer spending in Q1 most likely to show increase
“Contrary to our earlier expectations, consumer spending in the first quarter is most likely to show an increase. The sharp upward revision of inflation adjusted consumer spending in January (+0.7% versus +0.4% in the original report) is the main reason for this revision. Nominal consumer spending moved up 0.2% in February after a 1.0% increase in January. However, after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.2% in February. A conservative assumption for March results in an overall increase of consumer spending in the first quarter of 2009 of roughly 0.6%-0.8%. This in turn will result in a modification of the headline GDP forecast, which we are working on as of this writing.

“The near term trend of consumer spending is most likely to be weak owing to the severe declines in payroll employment.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, March 27, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Durable goods orders - glimmer of strength emerges
“Orders of durable goods increased 3.4% in February after a downwardly revised drop in January of 7.3% (originally estimated as a 4.5% decline). The 35.3% increase in orders of defense items and the 6.6% jump in bookings of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft stand out in the report. Orders of aircraft (-28.9%) and autos (-0.6%) dropped but that of machinery (+13.5%), computers (+5.6%), and appliances rose (+1.6%) during February. The main message is that the pickup in orders of durables is significant but consistent monthly gains will be necessary to declare that the factory sector has pulled out of the current doldrums.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, March 25, 2009.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): New home sales - notable pickup but more is necessary
“Sales of new homes rose 4.7% to an annual rate of 337,000, following an upward revision of sales in January and December. On a regional basis, sales of new homes increased in the South (+9.7%) and West (+6.6%) but fell in the Northeast (-3.3%) and Midwest (-9.1%). The fact that sales advanced in February is noteworthy but additional monthly gains will be necessary to reduce the inventory of unsold new homes and bring about stability in this sector.

“Sales of new single-family homes are down 43.8% in February from a year ago, after a 47.7% plunge in January. Sales of new homes have dropped 75.7% from the peak in July 2005. The trough for new home sales appears to be January 2009, for now.

“The median price of a new single-family home declined 18.1% from a year ago in February, the largest year-to-year drop on record. The median price of a new single-family home has fallen 23.5% from the peak in March 2007, also the largest peak-to-trough decline on record.

“Additional declines in prices of new homes are nearly certain given the large inventory of unsold new homes. The good news is that the inventory unsold homes fell slightly to a 12.2-month mark from the record high of 12.9 months in January.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, March 25, 2009.

CEP News: Fed’s Rosengren says programs will lower consumer, business loan costs
“Recent actions by the Federal Reserve should help lower the cost of credit to consumers and businesses, according to Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speaking before the House Financial Services Committee on Monday.

“While credit availability continues to be a significant source of concern for the Federal Reserve, the Fed has ‘acted proactively and creatively to address these concerns,’ said the central banker.”

Source: Erik Kevin Franco, CEP News, March 23, 2009.

Zillow: Federal Reserve announcement drives mortgage rate drop
“Driven by the news that the Federal Reserve plans to spend an additional $750 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities, the weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for thirty-year mortgages fell to 5.06%, down from 5.21% the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor.”

Source: Zillow, March 24, 2009.

Financial Times: Ron Paul - believer in small government predicts 15-year depression
“Pension trustees and insurance company portfolio managers look away now. Your increased commitment to government bond holdings in recent times is about to blow up spectacularly.

“At least, that is the view of Ron Paul, the US congressman who ran against John McCain in last year’s Republican Party presidential nomination.

“His is a minority view. Yields on government bonds worldwide have been falling fast over the past few months and in the UK, the commencement of ‘quantitative easing’ this month sent bond prices soaring.

“But the credibility of both western governments and their currencies is waning, and has been ever since the gold standard was abandoned in 1971, says Mr Paul. And that means even ‘safe’ investments are far from safe, he claims.

“‘People will start to abandon the dollar as current and past economic policies create a steep rise in interest rates,’ Mr Paul says.

“‘If you are in Treasuries, you will need to be watchful and nimble to time your escape.’

“Unfortunately, cashing out will not protect the value of investments, he insists, because ‘fiat’ currencies will all decline over the coming years as measures to try to haul the world economy out of recession fail. ‘The current stimulus measures are making things a lot worse,’ says Mr Paul.

“‘The US government just won’t allow the correction the economy needs.’ He cites the mini-depression of 1921, which lasted just a year largely because insolvent companies were allowed to fail. ‘No one remembers that one. They’ll remember this one, because it will last 15 years.’”

“And don’t even mention shares to Mr Paul: ‘The last place you want to be is in the stock market,’ he says. ‘It may not bottom out for 10 years - just look at Japan.’”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Phil Davis, Financial Times, March 22, 2009.

Financial Times: Credit market concerns
“While equities responded strongly to the Treasury’s plan to get bad loans off banks’ balance sheets, the rally in credit markets was more muted, says FT’s Aline van Duyn.”

Source: Aline van Duyn, Financial Times, March 24, 2009.

Bespoke: S&P 500 sector breadth measures
“The S&P 500 is currently trading 3.73% above its 50-day moving average, while the average stock in the index is 5.34% above its 50-day. This is a positive breadth measure. Below we provide the same analysis for the ten S&P 500 sectors.

“As shown, the Energy sector has the most positive breadth with a difference of +4.58% between the average stock’s distance from its 50-day versus the sector’s distance from its 50-day. Consumer Discretionary ranks 2nd, followed by Technology and Telecom.

“On the negative side, the Financial sector as a whole is trading 10.12% above its 50-day, while the average stock in the sector is 5.06% abvoe its 50-day. Only two sectors remain below their 50-days after this significant market rally and they are both defensive in nature - Health Care and Utilities.”

Source: Bespoke, March 26, 2009.

Bespoke: Sector trading ranges - nearing overbought levels
“In the chart below, we highlight the current levels of each S&P 500 sector with respect to their normal trading ranges. Red shading indicates that the sector is overbought (with dark red indicating extreme overbought levels), while green shading is indicative of an oversold reading.

“Over the last week, the S&P 500 and each of its sectors have moved closer to overbought levels. There are currently four overbought sectors, no oversold sectors, and six sectors in neutral territory. Given the Nasdaq’s brief push into positive YTD territory yesterday, it’s no surprise that the Technology sector is the most overbought one in the market. Health Care, on the other hand, is the furthest from overbought levels. It is currently attempting to recover from the sell off that took place in late February after the release of the Obama budget plan.

“Over the coming weeks, it would not be surprising to see investors rotate out of the tech sector, which is nearing extreme overbought territory, and into the less extended Health Care sector.”

Source: Bespoke, March 27, 2009.

Bloomberg: Mobius says stocks at beginning of a bull market rally
“The next bull market rally has begun and there are bargains in every emerging market following a record slump in stocks, Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius said.”

Click here for the article.

Source: Bloomberg, March 23, 2009.

Bloomberg: Roubini - stocks will drop as banks go “belly up”
“US stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“‘The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,’ Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. ‘We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.’

“The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a ‘bear-market rally’ and US Treasury yields will ‘remain relatively low’ as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

“Roubini’s outlook contrasts with predictions this week from Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius and Traxis Partners’ Barton Biggs, who said that equities are poised to rally as government efforts to revive the economy and banking system begin to work. Investors are ‘way too optimistic’ about the prospects for a recovery in the economy and earnings, Roubini said.”

Source: Michael Patterson and Maithreyi Seetharaman, Bloomberg, March 26, 2009.

MarketWatch: Keeping hope alive - bear market rally or new bull market?
“Is it possible to have too much of a good thing? Mae West didn’t think so, though I have it on reliable authority that she wasn’t talking about the stock market.

“And when it comes to rallies off of market lows, it is indeed possible for stocks to overdo it. That at least is the argument being made by at some of the investment newsletter editors I monitor.

“According to them, bear market rallies are almost by their very nature powerful and impressive. If we were to endow the bear market with intent, we would say that the very purpose of a rally is to draw as many gullible investors back into the market before the next leg down commences.

“… whatever else you say about the rally that began two weeks ago, it has indeed been ‘violent’ and has occurred with ‘amazing rapidity’.

“To gauge just how violent and rapid it has been, I compared the rally since March 9 to a composite of the stock market’s behavior over the first two weeks of all bull markets since 1900.

“To come up with a list of those bull markets, I followed the lead of Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. For them, a bull market requires one of three conditions to hold: (1) at least a 30% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 50 calendar days, (2) at least a 13% rise in the Dow in 155 calendar days, or (3) at least a 30% reversal in the Value Line Geometric Index.

“Since the beginning of 1900, according to the research firm, there have been by this set of criteria no fewer than 34 bull markets.

“It turns out that the recent rally has been markedly more powerful than the average beginning of prior bull markets. Over the last two weeks, for example, the Dow has gained 18.8%. The Dow’s average gain over the first two weeks of past bull markets, in contrast, has been 8.4%, or less than half as much.

“In fact, of the 34 bull markets identified by Ned Davis Research, only one of them produced a greater gain in its first two weeks than in the recent rally. That was the one that began on November 13, 1929, and is hardly one that the bulls would want to brag about. That bull market lasted just five months and led to an increase of just 48% in the Dow - making it one of the most modest of bull markets in the sample, despite have one of the most impressive returns in its first two weeks.

“These historical comparisons don’t automatically mean that the market’s strength over the last two weeks is just a bear market rally, of course. But those comparisons do highlight the possibility that the recent rally, impressive as it otherwise is, will in the end prove to be just a bear market rally.”

Source: Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch, March 24, 2009.

Jeffrey Saut (Raymond James): Bear market rally or something more?
“In recent weeks, copper, steel, and energy prices have crept higher. Additionally, building permits and housing starts have come in better than expected. Meanwhile, tax refunds are up 13.3% when compared to this time last year, which is probably why retail sales have stabilized despite rising unemployment.

“Only time will tell, but it feels like the economic deterioration is no longer accelerating? Could it be that the huge increase in money supply, negative real interest rates (inflation adjusted rates) and the reintermediation we have been speaking about are beginning to have a positive impact on the economy?

“The stock market might just be sensing that, having leaped off of a generational oversold condition into a 20%, ten-session, upside stampede that produced four 90% upside days (March 10th, 12th, 17th, and 18th) within a two week period. Such enthusiastic buying has tended to be associated with the start of new bull markets. Yet as the Lowry’s service notes, ‘Our 2002 study of 90% days showed that the start of new bull markets are typically identified by a single 90% upside day, representing a rush of enthusiastic buyers which typically calms down after the first dramatic day. On rare occasions, two 90% upside days have been recorded in the first 30 days of a new bull market.’

“While we are cautious, we remain hopeful and continue to favor the upside until proven wrong, which is why we are still ‘long’ various indexes and have selectively been accumulating stocks.”

Source: Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James, March 23, 2008.

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Get used to bear market rallies
“Moving on to the stock market, subscribers will have to get used to bear market action. In bear markets, counter-intuitively much of the time is spent with stocks rising, due to the frequent upward correction. For instance, during the horrendous 1929-32 bear markets there were no less than nine 15% rallies, the average lasting 15 days.

“During the 1937 to 1942 bear market, there were nine rallies of 15% or more with the average correction lasting 82 days

“During the 1946 to 1949 bear market there were two 15 % or more rallies averaging 57 days each.

“During the recent 2000 to 2002 bear market there were three 15% or more rallies averaging 5 days each.

“From November 2009 to January 2009 there were two rallies, one short and one longer one that stopped just short of 15%.

“So we have to get used to rallies in the bear market. One difficulty in dealing with bear rallies is that they can end as suddenly as they started. This is because bear market rallies don’t end with a period of distribution. The buying just stops, and down they go. This is opposite to bull market advances that usually terminate after a period of deliberate distribution.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, March 24, 2009.

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Don’t look to Wall Street for the lead
“The US stock market is the big elephant in the room, casting a long shadow, but it seldom leads market moves. New bull markets are led by emerging economies, subject to governance, with their better valuations near the lows, competitive currencies, superior GDP growth prospects and comparatively thin markets. … growing list of market indices which bottomed in October and November, and have now broken up out of their trading ranges during the current rally. This is very bullish action and the way new uptrends commence.

“Many other stock market indices tested their lows established last year and found good support near those levels, evidenced by their persistent rallies towards the upper-middle of their ranges. This is consistent with base formation development. Lastly, most of the stock markets that clearly broke beneath last year’s lows earlier this month have not maintained those downward breaks. Further rallies by these indices would also confirm base development.

“Long-dated government bond markets are no longer performing. Everyone knows that their yields are not attractive for any economic environment other than a deflationary depression. Some of the money currently in bonds came from stock markets and will return to equities as confidence improves. Corporate bonds are performing and they are a lead indicator for equities.

“Copper is leading industrial commodities higher, as it did in 2003.

“Lastly, the US dollar and yen in particular are weakening against yield / resources currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. This indicates that carry trade deleveraging has not only ended but is also reversing.

“Returning to global stock markets, I maintain that the bear market mostly ended in October and November. The January to early-March sell-off looks like a successful test of support from last year’s lows for most non-Western stock markets.

“I do have some remaining concern over Wall Street and its leash effect. However, technology is a leading indicator and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index did not break downwards. The S&P 500 Index did not maintain its break beneath the November low and is pushing above psychological resistance at 800. A move above 880 would, in my view, confirm a significant downside failure and resumption of the yearend base formation development.

“Interestingly, stock markets have been extending this month’s rally against a background of short-term overbought indicators. This indicates that bears are being squeezed and that bulls are emboldened. I have previously mentioned that a significant rally would be indicated by its persistence. We now have some distance between current levels and the early-March lows, which should provide a cushion of support during the next consolidation.

“In conclusion, if the bear market is not continuing, the new bull market is already underway, although most people do not yet realise it. However this will not be fully confirmed, as I have said before, until the majority of stock markets are trading above rising 200-day moving averages. Moreover, even though the balance of technical evidence increasingly suggests that a new bull market is gradually commencing, this does not mean that all of the developing bases can support uptrends at this time. The leading Asian emerging markets and South American resources markets may actually be commencing uptrends, but many others are likely to extend their bases in coming months.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, March 26, 2009.

BCA Research: Demystifying Chinese holdings of US assets
“In an unusual disclosure, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao publicly expressed his concerns about the safety of China’s holdings of US assets, putting the country’s massive yet largely furtive foreign exchange assets into the spotlight.

“Our research finds that China currently has about 64% of its foreign reserves in US assets, a level that has declined gradually from as high as 84% in 2003. The majority of Chinese holdings of US assets are risk free and long-term in nature, but there has been a clear trend in China’s reserve holdings that shows a persistent increase in exposure to risky assets and non-US assets over the past five years.

“Although, China’s net purchases of risky US assets have dropped sharply since mid-last year, while its net purchases of Treasurys have jumped. This underscores the authorities’ reduced risk appetite amid the ongoing global storm. Their reserve diversification process could accelerate again when global financial markets stabilize. Importantly, China’s net purchases of short-term US Treasurys have jumped dramatically over the past year, accounting for the majority of the country’s total net purchases of US government paper. This is an unprecedented development and a situation that warrants close attention going forward.”

Source: BCA Research, March 23, 2009.

The Wall Street Journal: China takes aim at dollar
“China called for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world’s standard, proposing a sweeping overhaul of global finance that reflects developing nations’ growing unhappiness with the US role in the world economy.

“The unusual proposal, made by central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan in an essay released Monday in Beijing, is part of China’s increasingly assertive approach to shaping the global response to the financial crisis.

“Mr. Zhou’s proposal comes amid preparations for a summit of the world’s industrial and developing nations, the Group of 20, in London next week. At past such meetings, developed nations have criticized China’s economic and currency policies.

“This time, China is on the offensive, backed by other emerging economies such as Russia in making clear they want a global economic order less dominated by the US and other wealthy nations.

“However, the technical and political hurdles to implementing China’s recommendation are enormous, so even if backed by other nations, the proposal is unlikely to change the dollar’s role in the short term. Central banks around the world hold more US dollars and dollar securities than they do assets denominated in any other individual foreign currency. Such reserves can be used to stabilize the value of the central banks’ domestic currencies.

“Monday’s proposal follows a similar one Russia made this month during preparations for the G20 meeting. Like China, Russia recommended that the International Monetary Fund might issue the currency, and emphasized the need to update ‘the obsolescent unipolar world economic order’.”

Source: Andrew Batson, The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2009.

Bespoke: Gold testing downside support
“Just one week after the Federal Reserve devalued the dollar by announcing that they would start buying US Treasuries, one would think gold would be in rally mode and in overbought territory. However, while gold had an initial spike following the Fed’s announcement, since then the yellow metal has come back down to earth. Gold is currently close to testing its 50-day moving average, which is a level that has provided reasonable support over the last few months. If that level fails to hold, the next level of support is around its 200-day moving average at 859.”

Source: Bespoke, March 25, 2009.

Platts: Chinese buying spree sparks fears of base metal shortage in Asia
“Robust Chinese demand could result in a supply shortage of base metals in Asia even as the rest of the world grapples with low demand, market sources said this week.

“Japanese copper smelters producing a total 120,000 mt/month of copper cathode have sold out of April-May shipments. Two smelters producing 20,000-40,000 mt/month each said they may be able to offer spot cargoes in June.

“Asia’s copper market has tightened as a result, sources said. Premiums for Japanese copper for prompt shipment within 60 days have risen to $150/mt plus London Metal Exchange cash CIF Shanghai this month, from $80-100 mt/plus LME CIF Shanghai in February.

“There is no shortage yet, and no copper consumer in Asia has yet been forced to curtail production of coils or cables due to a shortage of copper feedstock, sources said.

“But if demand in recession-hit Japan does start to pick up unexpectedly, Asia may suffer shortages, impacting smaller consumers in particular that have no protection from long term contracts.”

Source: Mayumi Watanabe, Platts, March 27, 2009.

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Where do oil prices go from here?
“The consensus view is usually a contrary indicator. Near the July 2008 peak at just under $150, many analysts were forecasting $200 and higher. This trend extrapolation was often influenced by their firms’ and clients’ own speculative positions, not least in tracker funds. Around $40, the consensus was for $25, suggesting sizable short positions.

“Price charts gave a very good signal that crude oil’s bull run was over in mid-July 2008 and since December we have interpreted the ranging price action as base formation development centred on $40. I do not assume that the lows will be retested and the base might even have been completed. If so, the next reaction and consolidation, representing the first step above the base, would most likely encounter support at $47 or higher.

“Historically, demand for crude oil has only experienced a small decline during deep recessions. Global consumption of crude continued to rise during the 2001-2002 recession, albeit at a slower rate. We are currently seeing a dip in demand but as Matthew Simmons points out, it is only slight and mostly in terms of consumption in the US.

“Meanwhile, OPEC has reduced supplies, while worldwide exploration and development of oil reserves has been curtailed by low prices and financing difficulties in the global recession. The search for viable alternatives has become a priority for oil-importing countries but it is a slow process.

“Energy is a Fullermoney secular theme and our view is that it has become a bull play once again, in all its various forms. The short to medium-term risk is probably limited to additional base formation development before significant uptrends occur. That will mark the return of commodity price inflation.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, March 24, 2009.

Ifo: Further decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index
“The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany has cooled again somewhat in March. The firms have reported a further worsening of their current business situation. With regard to the business outlook for the coming six months, they are again slightly less pessimistic. An economic turning point has not yet been reached, in the opinion of the survey participants.”

Source: Ifo, March 25, 2009.

CEP News: Fall in German PMIs starts moderating
“German manufacturing and services output continued to contract at severe rates in March. However, the pace of contraction unexpectedly eased over the month, Markit Economics noted.

“On Tuesday, Markit Economics reported that the German manufacturing purchasing managers rose to 32.4 in March, up modestly from February’s 32.1 level. Economists had expected the PMI to fall back to its record low 32.0 level.

“Output in the services sector also showed unexpected strength, as reflected in the services PMI rising to 41.7 from February’s 41.3 level. Expectations had been for a fall to an all-time low of 41.0.

“Taking the two PMIs together, the composite index came to a two-month high of 37.7, up 1.4 points from February’s figure.

“‘The rise in the headline composite index provides some tentative hope that the downturn has passed its nadir,’ Markit economist Mark Smith said.”

Source: CEP News, March 24, 2009.

CEP News: ECB may turn to “unconventional policy” if rates reach limit
“The European Central Bank may take unconventional measures if its key policy rate hits its lower boundary, ECB Governing Council member Nout Wellink said on Thursday.

“‘The ECB could use unconventional monetary policy, on top of the unusual expansion already implemented, if the interest rate instrument can’t be used further because of [almost] reaching the zero-rate limit,’ Wellink said in the Nederlandsche Bank’s annual report.

“The policy maker also said that months of negative price growth could not be ruled out in the euro zone. ‘[Negative inflation] isn’t a problem in itself as long as consumers don’t continuously postpone spending in the hope on further price declines,’ Wellink said.

“Wellink also said that the global economic environment is unprecedentedly uncertain.’ He added, ‘The financial system has been under unprecedented pressure since August 2007.”

“However, the central banker said that it was ‘not unrealistic to expect that the world economy will get going’ by next year.”

Source: CEP News, March 26, 2009.

Financial Times: Take-up of City offices at new low
“Take-up of new offices in the City of London has fallen to its lowest for more than 20 years as the slowdown in the economy has reined in financial services businesses from expanding and moving to new buildings.

“There has been just 220,000 sq ft of new occupied space in the Square Mile since the beginning of the year, half the previous lowest office take-up during the last recession, when 500,000 sq ft was let in the third quarter of 1991.

“The economic downturn has hit the City office market hard, with many businesses looking to cut staff and reduce office occupation. Some are also looking to sub-let their own space.

“According to data compiled by Atisreal property consultancy since 1987, the vacancy rate in the City is 12.4%, or 10m sq ft, still significantly less than the last recession, when a fifth of offices were empty.

“Even so, there are a number of new buildings set for completion in the next two years that will add to those figures.

“City rents have also fallen sharply. Dan Bayley, head of national sales and lettings at Atisreal, said that prime rents were now about £45 per sq ft, down about a third from the peak of the market in 2007 when offices were being let at about £67.50 per sq ft.

“Mr Bayley said: ‘With rents continuing to fall, landlords are experiencing further pain. However, the positive factor is that a number of occupiers really are seeing value for money and, like the West End, may start seeing more activity in the coming quarters.’”

Source: Daniel Thomas, Financial Times, March 22, 2009.

CEP News: BOJ minutes reveal steps to buy assets
“The Bank of Japan’s minutes from the February 18-19 meeting revealed the bank felt that buying corporate bonds was necessary to stabilize financial markets.

“At the meeting, the central bank held the target rate unchanged at 0.1% as expected, but also announced further measure to boost corporate financing.

“The bank said it would begin purchases of corporate bonds and extend the period of time they will buy commercial paper. The bank has met since then and expanded their purchases of Japanese government bonds.”

Source: Megan Ainscow, CEP News, March 23, 2009.

Tags: Asset Backed Securities, Ben Bernanke, Deposit Insurance Corporation, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Emerging Markets, ETF, Federal Deposit Insurance, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Fdic, Global Stock Markets, Government Bonds, India, Investment Program, Money Printing, Mortgage Backed Securities, oil, Percentage Gain, Point Gain, Ppip, Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary, Troubled Assets, Us Treasury
Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Emerging Markets, Gold, Markets | No Comments »

Credit Market Conditions - An Update

Sunday, March 15th, 2009

This post is a guest contribution by Asha Bangalore*, vice president and economist at The Northern Trust Company.

Credit market spreads have widened since early-February from the short-end to the long and risky end. As the charts below indicate, the widening of the spreads has occurred even as the Fed is acting aggressively to enhance credit availability and reduce the cost of credit.

Clarity and action with regard to the cleaning up of balance sheets of banks appears to be necessary for credit market conditions to improve. The operation of the TALF program is another factor that should ease credit market conditions.

The first disbursement of funds under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) will be on March 25, 2009. The TALF program is designed to increase credit availability and support economic activity by facilitating renewed issuance of consumer and small business asset backed securities (ABS) at more normal interest rate spreads. The charts below show the sharp jump in interest rate spreads of two asset backed securities (credit cards and auto loans) since the third quarter of 2008, followed by a small amount of narrowing.

The TALF program should reduce the unusually high risk premiums that have emerged in this sector and raise credit availability. We will be watching developments it this sector closely. The ABS markets have funded a large share of consumer credit and U.S. Small Business Administration guaranteed small business loans. Fed and Treasury support in these markets could significantly lift the availability of credit to households and small businesses and thereby contribute to a recovery of economic activity.

Source: Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, March 11, 2009.

*Asha Bangalore is vice president and economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

Tags: Asset Backed Securities, Auto Loans, Balance Sheets, Commercial Banks, Credit Availability, Disbursement, Economic Activity, Economic Strategies, Global Commentary, High Risk, Loan Facility, Loan Institutions, Northern Trust Company, Risk Premiums, Savings And Loan, Securities Credit, Securities Loan, Small Business Administration, Small Business Loans, Strategies Corporation
Posted in Credit Markets, Markets | No Comments »

Bill Gross: In Depth Outlook - Bought Mortgages and Sold US Debt (Video and Transcript)

Friday, February 13th, 2009

Bill Gross is interviewed in depth by Kathleen Hays, Bloomberg - 17:09 mins, February 10, 2009.

This is a must-see, or must read below interview. Bill Gross gets a lot of air time these days but its rarely this in-depth and this forthcoming, from another of the quiet geniuses of the financial world.

GreenLightAdvisor.com has produced this transcript below for your review:

Kathleen and Bill sit in PIMCO’s War Room, where PIMCO hammers out their investment strategy four times a year with the 100 people or so from around the world who play an instrumental role in the running of the world’s biggest bond fund company.

Its the room and that’s the seat there where, for example, Alan Greenspan, among others, sits and contributes his own particular ideas, and all of that comes together in terms of what they buy and what they sell at PIMCO.

In the end 8 people, who form the investment committee at PIMCO ultimately decide the firm`s direction.

Kathleen Hays: I want to talk about TARP; Chris Dodd stridently called for new management, they want guarantees bank are going to lend, and curbs on executive compensation. Is that the problem now , is that where the government`s focus should be?

Bill Gross: It is a problem, there’s no doubt that he’s on to something there and that’s the reason we have a new administration, I would assume. And so, we will have, not necessarily a new direction, but a reinforced vitality in terms of making sure that the banks are recapitalized and are lending money, so I think that’s very much of a positive. As I mentioned in my latest investment outlook this particular month, the banks are only part of the puzzle. Only part of the total equation, because the securitized market, the securitized lending market, the part that includes mortgages, and asset backed securities, credit card receivables, and so on, are really bigger than the banks, so we have to address what Paul McCulley once called the ’shadow’ banking system as well.

Kathleen Hays: Paul McCulley runs the short term bond funds, hes a managing director, your man Friday, I Guess. You guys are the dynamic duo. At this point you’re saying the government needs to buy assets, the government needs to stabilize asset prices, so explain that:

Bill Gross: The growth of the economy, the growth of the global economy over the past 10,15, 20 years has been based substantially, not entirely, but substantially on asset prices. I mean you can catch the example best in the form of housing prices to the extent that Americans a few years ago could borrow on their homes because their homes had gone up in price, and then spend money, and increase consumption. That basically happened in the US in many different forms, and globally as well. It was based upon a rising level of securities prices; in some cases obviously, too extreme of a rise, and so now that prices are coming down dramatically, its incumbent upon policymakers to make sure that this decline is cushioned, as opposed to falling through a trap door.

KH: Now you have three specific assets you would have the government buy.

BG: Well, in addition to what they’re already doing; you know we’re already buying commercial paper for the Fed, we’re buying mortgages, which Scott Simon just talked about during your last half hour. There are additional asset classes that deserve and need support. Those would be Municipal Bonds, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS); we’re talking about real estate, shopping centres, etc. in terms of support for real estate, and they would also include student loans and credit card receivables as a bunch, so those three categories are important to keep prices up and rates down.

KH: What the critics who say that would potentially distort the market? That you’ve got to let the markets work and you’ve got to let the prices settle out.

BG: Well if you did, and you can; you know, that was advocated by a secretary of the treasury back in the 1930s. His name was Andrew Mellon. He said liquidate, liquidate land, liquidate stocks, liquidate everything and then start over. The problem is that when you liquidate everything, and you let prices of everything settle to their ‘natural’ level so to speak, which in this case, would be very un-natural. If you let them settle, the willingness of the capitalist to move forward, to lend in the future, which is what capitalism depends upon, is destroyed. You have to be very careful in terms of letting prices fall to their natural level.

KH: PIMCO is now the home of the largest mutual fund, not just the largest bond fund. So now you’re wearing a new crown.

BG: Well we don’t like to talk in those terms, but we’re glad to have the assets and the support.

KH: …and keep them growing and making money, which in a time like this is all the more important. I want to ask you about the economy; again it was the February outlook: You referred to what you call a ‘mini depression,’ and I want to ask you about that, because compared to past recessions, the decline in GDP isn’t as large as some, the percentage of jobs lost not that large, and you yourself are saying that it could reach 9%; is there another reason for you to say that, or is your point that this is going to get a lot, lot, lot worse?

BG: Well, I think it is going to get worse. But there is a reason for that. Its either a big R or a tiny D, that’s why I said ‘potentially’ mini depression. And you’re correct in terms of prior cycles; the 1981-1982 cycle experienced some 7% and 8% declines quarterly declines in GDP, so we haven’t matched that yet. But the important thing is not real GDP, but Nominal GDP, because its from nominal GDP, growth plus prices, that debt is serviced. Back in ‘81-’82 nominal GDP was positive almost all the way along; there was one quarter where there was a slight negative. Now however in this last quarter, we’ve had negative nominal GDP, and we’ll have it again in this quarter. And the point being, that What we’re experiencing now is a debt deflation, and debt is serviced with nominal GDP, prices plus real growth, and to the extent that prices are not going up, but going down, corporations can’t extract money to service their debt.

KH: So, Stimulus, Washington, big debate. And then a debate about the stimulus. Is is really a stimulus or not? Is it too much spending in the future? Some people say, more tax cuts, right now? What is your view of the stimulus package and what its going to do to end that cycle that you’re just talking about?

BG: I don’t think its enough. You know there’s a debate back and forth, and $700-800billion sounds like a lot of money. The problem is that there has been trillions and trillions of dollars of credit, bank capital, and spending power, extracted from this economy over the past 6-12 months. You can look at it from the standpoint of wealth effect, you can look at it from the standpoint of lending and banks, the shadow system, all of that in combination, but the fact is that this economy requires support from the government, a cheque from the government in some form or fashion, in the trillions, as opposed to the hundreds of billions, and I think President Obama was right. There’s a potential catastrophe if Washington continues to focus on a hundred or two hundred billion dollars. We need something in the trillions.

KH:In the trillion-ze? Trillion-ze. And you’re counting the not just the bailout, but the banking aspects?

BG: That’s true.

KH: Well this is also going to mean a lot of treasuries being issued, and we’re already seeing that hitting the bond market, and in some sense, I think its amazing how low yields have stayed without real big supply. In fact, until recently, it looked like even the Chinese and other foreign central banks have continued to buy. What’s the attraction? Is it safety? You’re not getting much return on those.

BG: It is safety. I think foreign buyers are very concerned about safety, and they’re refusing at the moment to invest in corporate bonds, and even the mortgage debt as you suggest. So that’s one consideration. The other of course is, they’re trying to support their own currencies in terms of keeping them down. The Chinese don’t want an appreciating Yuan or RMB and so they, almost by necessity, have to buy treasuries in order to keep the dollar up and their currencies down. Its the combination of the two that allow them to buy treasuries at what appears to be low yields.

There’s an additional kicker, because in the last few statements, the Fed, Ben Bernanke, has said that could come a time in which the Fed will buy longer dated treasuries.

KH: Is that a good idea, if they do that?

BG: I think they must do that, to the extent they’re issuing over a trillion of securities. Next week, they’re issuing $67-billion
of 5s, 10s, and 30s, and then again
, and again, and again. To the extent that the Chinese and others don’t have the necessary funds, then someone has to buy them. PIMCO is not going to buy them, and so its incumbent upon the Fed to step in. When they do however, and if they do. Let’s not suppose that they necessarily go the full way, but if they do, that will be a significant day, in the bond markets, the credit markets.

KH: All you’re themes lately have been, ‘go with the government,’ If the Fed’s buying treasuries, you’re not going to buy them too?

BG:Well, we wouldn;t buy treasuries, but we would buy bonds that are correlated and related to treasurie with a higher yield.

KH: If even if the Fed starts this program of buying treasuries, which you said, hey, good idea, do it, you wouldn’t buy treasuries, but you’d buy bonds correlated to them with higher yields. Let’s
talk about
corporate bond issuance which has really exploded recently. Why is that, and I know you have been recommending certain kinds of corporate bonds, holding them. Where do stand on that now?

BG: Sure, we’re recommending the higher tranche, the higher echelon of investment grade bonds, not necessarily Baa bonds, but single A, AA, and, in fact the bonds of the banks. Our motto is to shake hands with Uncle Sam. To the extent that the banks are supported, bank debt’s supported, those yields are in the 6-7-8% category, relative to 2-3% treasuries.

KH: I think you make a very good point. Right now, buy the corporate bonds, they’re safe, you get the yield, stay away from the equity, right? When does this stuff start working though? Wouldn’t that be a point when an investor could say, at some point when stocks bottom, you usually do get a bounce, a pretty good bounce that can carry you up high. How do you gauge that, I know you’re a bond fund, but nevertheless, then do you wish at times that you had a few equities? Will there be a point like that, when they’ll outperform?

BG: Sure, and out equity equivalents are high-yield bonds, you know, previously known as junk bonds, and other lower rated securities that yield now in the double digits. And so, yes, if this remedy takes hold over the next 6-12 months, then those high-yield bonds, and lower rated debt will do very well in price. They’ll go up by 10-20 points.

KH: The investment grade corporates will have the nice yield all the way along. So what corporate bonds do you like right now?

BG: Well, we have stuck to the financials. We bought bonds of American Express. Sallie Mae; now there’ a shake hands with the government corporation, they’re heavily involved, the biggest student loan lender, and to the extent the government wants to support student loans through the T.A.L.F., which is the governments new program which will come on in March, where they lend money, and finance student loans and auto-backed receivables, a company like Sallie Mae, going to do very well.

KH: What about the mortgage markets? Is there a value there and where, and what about…do you have any interest in non-US mortgage-backed securities
?

BG: The mortgage market comes down to a value based on their carry. You know the government is buying about $500-billion of them over the next 4 or 5 months. We’ve already bought perhaps $50-billion, so you have some support there in terms of the price. We think what they’re trying to do is drive the yield down to 4.5%-4% to make it more affordable to homeowners. That supports the price of mortgages and allows a holder like PIMCO to gain a carry of 4-4.5%. That’s not a big deal. Its not something where you’re going to get rich, but on the other hand its a very safe and well supported security based upon what the treasury department, and the Fed has announced they’re going to do.

KH: What about credit derivatives? Where do you stand on those now Bill? What part did they play in the mess we got in, and what needs to be done now?

BG:Oh, they did play a big part, and the weapons of mass destruction, financial destruction, you know Warren Buffett was very right, and very early, and correct all the way. What we think is that they simply reflected an over-levered financial complex, an over-levered economy and yes, were CDS and swaps part of that complex, and part of that extension, they certainly were. Now the entire system, the entire shadow banking is pulling back, and so if behooves every investor to become more conservative in the form of the derivatives that they hold.

KH:ARe you still more worried about deflation right now than inflation, because there are whiffs of that, you get the sense that people are starting to get worried about the eventual inflation because of the big deficit, and everything that has been done, the pumping up of liquidity and money. Where is the balance of risk in Bill Gross’ eyes right now?

BG: Its still in the deflationary camp right now, and from the standpoint of deflation, its the deflation of asset prices, not necessarily the deflation of prices. Everybody welcomes a lower price at the gas pump or the grocery store. I think the problem is that as asset prices deflate, you have destruction in terms of the financial system. You have an inability for corporations to maintain solvency in terms of their debt and you have default.

KH: Bank nationalization of some form; is that eventually what we’re going to head for? Some of these banks that are in such bad shape? Some of the big ones?

BG:We’ve seen partial nationalization, and partial meaning, at least 60-70%. In some cases, we estimate that the entire financial system from the standpoint of not only, buying stocks and obtaining warrants, preferreds, TARP, as well as the FDIC guarantees, and other guarantees that have been extended, basically now apply to about 65% of all bank liabilities. And so, that’s not nationalization, but its a lot closer to it than we were 6-12 months ago. We don’t welcome that, we simply recognize the necessity for it and we intend for our clients try and take advantage of it.

KH: Alright then Bill Gross, thanks for allowing us to take advantage of your time today. Really appreciate joining you here in PIMCO, in the war room.

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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 24 – 30, 2008)

Sunday, November 30th, 2008

We are very pleased to welcome Dr. Prieur du Plessis as an editorial contributor to GreenLightAdvisor.com. Prieur du Plessis has 25 years’  of global experience in professional investment research and portfolio management. More than 1,000 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns. He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment. He also authors a well read blog Investment Postcards from Capetown.

Prieur is chief executive and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and other African countries.

Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin, author of the Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental Index methodology in the Pan-African area.

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The holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week brought investors an additional item to be thankful for when stock markets closed higher for five consecutive trading days - a rare winning streak last accomplished in July 2007. The S&P 500 Index gained 19.1% since the start of the rally on November 21 and 12.0% on the week, registering the largest weekly gain since 1974.

Source: Daryl Cagle

Worrisome economic reports were cast aside by equity bulls, arguing that the bad news had already been priced in. However, US Treasury Note yields were less sanguine and fell to its lowest level on record, pointing to deflation concerns and suggesting that investors remained skeptical about the government’s latest moves to help revive the ailing economy. Importantly, US three-month Treasury Bills were trading at a minuscule 0.03%, indicating that liquidity was still being hoarded.

President-elect Obama stressed the need for quick action to expedite an economic recovery and introduced his administration’s economic team, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker as head of a new White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board tasked to revive growth in the US. Involving the 81-year Volcker in this way is a smart move by Obama.

A catalyst for last week’s stock market recovery was the announcement on Monday of the US government’s rescue plan for Citigroup (C), including a direct $20 billion investment and $306 billion in asset guarantees.

With credit markets still not thawing after the introduction of various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections, the Fed on Tuesday unveiled further steps aimed at lowering borrowing costs for consumers and home buyers. The Fed will buy $100 billion of debt from Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and the Federal Home Loan Banks, and also purchase up to $500 billion of mortgage paper backed by the agencies. The Fed will furthermore lend $200 million to holders of key asset-backed securities regarding small business and consumer (auto, student, credit card) loans.

Source: The New York Times, November 25, 2008.

Commenting on the US government’s bailout actions and quoting from the Jerusalem Post, Bill King said: “There is one last thing that Hank, Ben and Geithner can do: ‘The country’s chief rabbis are calling for a mass prayer rally on Thursday in the hope that heavenly intervention will stem the global financial crisis.’”

Next, a tag cloud of the text of the dozens of articles I have devoured over the past week. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. The usual suspects feature prominently, with “gold” attracting increasing attention.

Has the stock market reached a secular low or is it just bouncing off oversold levels? According to Fox Business Network, legendary investor Jim Rogers said: “We’re ready for a rally. I mean, the market in October and earlier this month has had a huge selling climax. I covered a lot of my shorts. Who knows if I’m right or not. But I expect the market to rally for some time. It may rally into next year. But … this is a false rally. It’s not going to be great. It’s not the end of the problems in America and it’s not the end of the bear market.”

A positive for the bulls is that the period post Thanksgiving through the end of the year has usually been a strong time for stocks. According to Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader’s Almanac), “December is normally a banner month for stocks, ranking second [on the monthly calendar] for the Dow and S&P 500 and third for the Nasdaq.”

Should the bullish seasonal tendencies hold true on this occasion, possible first targets are the November 4 highs of 9,625 for the Dow (current level 8,829) and 1,006 for the S&P 500 (current level 896). This will also result in both indices clearing their 50-day moving averages.

“There is no doubt that time is needed for volatility to settle down before many will have the confidence to return to investing, but if one looks beyond the end of the year, 2009 will almost certainly be a better year for investors than 2008,” said David Fuller (Fullermoney) from London.

Although there is not yet conclusive evidence that we are leaving the corpse of the bear behind (especially with Q4 earnings disasters looming in January), it would appear that the nascent rally could have more steam left. (Also read my recent posts “Is the tide turning for stocks” and “Does the stock market rally have legs?“)

I am about to hit the road again - traveling to New York City - and blog posts will therefore take a back seat for the next week as I explore the Big Apple and meet with friends, blog readers and business associates in the cold weather and depressed economic climate.

Before highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators, let’s briefly review the financial markets’ movements on the basis of economic statistics and a performance round-up.

Economy “Global business sentiment is as dark as it has ever been, although the free fall in confidence may be over,” said the latest Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody’s Economy.com. “Pessimism is pervasive across the entire globe, with the only distinction being that Asian businesses are somewhat less nervous than elsewhere. Pricing pressures are falling rapidly, although they are not yet consistent with outright deflation.” The global economy is suffering a severe recession according to the results of the business confidence survey.

Economic indicators released in the US during the past week all pointed to a deepening recession. According to Briefing.com, Q3 GDP was revised down to -0.5% from -0.3%, durable orders slumped by 6.2%, existing home sales fell by 3.1%, new home sales dropped by 5.3%, personal spending declined by 1.0%, and weekly initial claims, while improved from the prior week, continued to register a reading above 500,000.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at 33.8, the weakest number since the serious recession of 1982. “The national number due next Monday will be just as ugly, as durable goods were down far more than expected, by a negative 6.2%,” added John Mauldin (Thoughts from the Frontline).

Commenting on the outlook for interest rates, Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) said: “Going forward, real GDP is expected to show a decline that is upward of 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Fed is widely expected to lower the Federal funds rate to 0.5% on December 16.” However, the Fed’s quantitative easing approach to monetary policy now seems to be targeting the quantity of money rather than its price.

Elsewhere in the world, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) slashed its benchmark interest rates by 108 basis points and also lowered the reserve requirement for banks. This move indicates that China will be joining the rest of the world in a marked economic slowdown.

For the upcoming week, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to reduce interest rates by 50 and 75 basis points respectively in the light of a deteriorating economic outlook.

Week’s economic reports Click here for the week’s economy in pictures, courtesy of Jake of EconomPic Data.

Source: Yahoo Finance, November 28, 2008.

In addition to the Fed releasing its Beige Book (Wednesday) and interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England (Thursday), next week’s US economic highlights, courtesy of Northern Trust, include the following:

1. ISM Manufacturing Survey (December 1): The consensus for the manufacturing ISM composite index is 38.4 versus 38.9 in October.

2. Employment Situation (December 5): Payroll employment in November is predicted to have dropped by 300,000 after 240,000 jobs were lost in October. The unemployment rate is expected to move up two notches to 6.7%. Consensus: Payrolls: -300,000 versus -240,000 in October, unemployment rate: 6.7% versus 6.5% in October.

3. Other reports: Construction spending (December 1), auto sales (December 2), ISM non-manufacturing, productivity and costs (December 3), and factory orders (December 4).

Markets The performance chart obtained from the Wall Street Journal Online shows how different global markets performed during the past week.

Source: Wall Street Journal Online, November 28, 2008.

Equities Global stock markets surged during the past week on the back of a combination of bargain hunting and short covering, albeit on light trading volume as a result of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

Both mature and emerging markets shared handsomely in the rally that commenced on November 21, as shown by the subsequent gains of the MSCI World Index (+15.7%) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (+13.5%). Notwithstanding the improvement, these indices are still down by 43.8% and 57.7% respectively for the year to date.

Click here or on the thumbnail below for a (delightfully green) market map, obtained from Finviz, providing a quick overview of last week’s performances of global stock markets (as reflected by the movements of ADR stocks).

The US stock markets all rallied sharply over the week as shown by the major index movements: Dow Jones Industrial Index +9.7 (YTD -33.5%), S&P 500 Index +12.0% (YTD -39.0%), Nasdaq Composite Index +10.9% (YTD ‑42.1%) and Russell 2000 Index +16.4% (YTD -38.2%).

The bar chart below, also from Finviz.com, shows the US sector performances over the week, and specifically how strongly financials and materials have recovered.

As far as industry groups are concerned, the automobile manufacturing group (+82%) was the top performer for the week. General Motors Corp (GM) and Ford Motor (F) rose by 71% and 88% respectively on the expectation that auto makers will receive a government bailout.

The homebuilding group (+59%) was the second-best performer on the prospect that the US government’s latest rescue package will result in lower mortgage rates and mortgage credit becoming more readily available.

Seven of the ten underperforming groups were from the three top-performing sectors for the year to date - consumer staples, health care and utilities. These sectors, which typically outperform in a declining market, tend to lag in a rising market such as the one experienced last week.

Interestingly, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages has increased from almost zero in October to 19% on Friday - a promising improvement.

I often get asked by readers about Richard Russell’s (Dow Theory Letters) latest views. This is what the old-timer said on Friday: “The big question now is whether the tide is in the early process of turning bullish. If so, we should be seeing a series of constructive, even bullish days. … I wonder whether my more aggressive subscribers shouldn’t jump the gun and maybe buy the Diamonds (DIA) at the opening on Monday.”

Fixed-interest instruments The ten-year US Treasury Note yield declined to its lowest level since records began in 1958, closing 25 basis points lower on the week at 2.93% after falling as low as 2.82% earlier on Friday.

In addition to economic and deflation worries, Treasuries also benefited from lower mortgage rates as a result of the Fed’s decision to buy GSE-insured mortgage paper. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped by 25 basis points to 5.84%.

“The lower mortgage rates threaten to trigger a wave of mortgage refinancing, the prospect of which has pushed investors to hedge that risk by buying ten-year Treasury debt, a benchmark for mortgage rates,” reported the Financial Times“.

The UK ten-year Gilt yield dropped by 9 basis points to 3.78% and the German ten-year Bund yield fell by 12 basis points to 3.26%. Emerging-market bonds also performed well, with the JPMorgan EMBI Global Index gaining 5.1% during the week.

Although some progress has been made as a result of central banks’ liquidity facilities and capital injections, the credit markets are not yet thawing (see my “Credit Crisis Watch” of November 28). The TED and LIBOR-OIS spreads have tightened since the panic levels of October 10, whereas the CDX and iTraxx indices have also shown some improvement over the past few days. However, US Treasury Bills and high-yield spreads are still at crisis levels.

Currencies Most currencies rebounded against the US dollar during the past week as the greenback came under pressure as a result the Fed’s new measures to unclog the credit markets.

Over the week the US dollar lost ground against the euro (-0.8%), the British pound (-3.1%), the Swiss franc (-0.8%), the Japanese yen (-0.3%), the Canadian dollar (-2.4%), the Australian dollar (-3.7%) and the New Zealand dollar (-4.3).

The US currency also fell against emerging-market currencies such as the Brazilian real (‑7.7%), the Turkish lira (-6.0%) and the South African rand (-4.1%).

Interestingly, the Chinese renminbi (+6.9%) is the only major emerging-market currency that has appreciated against the US dollar over the year to date.

Commodities The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index (+4.7%) closed higher by the end of the week - only its fifth positive week since commodities peaked early in July. Arguing against a more lasting reversal of fortune for commodities, the Baltic Dry Index - a benchmark for shipping major raw materials, including coal, iron ore and grain, and generally an excellent barometer of economic activity - declined by 14.5% to its lowest level since 1987.

The graph below shows the movements of various commodities over the past week, indicating an improvement across the whole complex as a weak US dollar pushed prices higher.

Gold bullion (+3.4%) remained in favor with investors as a result of a solid supply/demand situation, store-of-value considerations and a positive-looking chart (see below). A research report from Citigroup, as reported by the Telegraph, said gold could rise above $2,000 within two years. Platinum (+6.9%) and silver (+7.6%) - massive underperformers since March - were also in demand last week.

In the aftermath of Thanksgiving, may I remind you of the following old stock market adage: “The bears have Thanksgiving and the bulls have Christmas.” Let’s hope for an early Christmas! Meanwhile, the news items and words from the investment wise below will hopefully assist in steering our portfolios on a profitable course.

That’s the way it looks from Cape Town.

Hat tip: Mish (via Live Leak)

Big Think: Beyond the crisis - conversation with Larry Summers, George Soros and Robert Merton

Source: Big Think, November 2008.

PBS News Hour: Taleb, the risk maverick “Interview with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, famous economist and author of ‚The Black Swan’ and Dr. Mandelbrot, professor of Mathematics. Both say that the present economy is more serious than the Great Depression, and the economy during the American Revolution.”

Source: PBS News Hour (via YouTube), October 22, 2008.

IDD magazine: John Bogle - great expectations “John Bogle founded the Vanguard Mutual Fund Group in 1974. He served as its chairman and chief executive until 1996 and remained on as senior chairman until 2000.

“Recently, he wrote ‘Enough: True Measures of Money, Business and Life’, which was published by John Wylie & Sons.

“To call it a business book - a how-to or memoir - would be too simplistic. In fact, it is far from the typical business book because it offers some interesting life lessons on dealing with people, especially clients and customers.

“Bogle spoke with IDD last week, offering his thoughts on long-term investing and how it may come back - as opposed to rapid-fire maneuvers in and out of a company’s shares - and his thoughts on PE fund managers as well as hedge funds. Not surprisingly, they are not positive.

“As Bogle sees it ‘we have made Wall Street too much of a casino. It is totally dominated by speculation … we are engaged in an orgy of speculation the likes of which has never been seen in the history of this country.’

“His rule of thumb for investors: your bond position should equal your age. ‘I’m about 80% bonds. I started 65% about 15 years ago,’ says Bogle.

“Following are excerpts from the interview:

“IDD: How do you think the credit crisis will play out?

“BOGLE: The market can’t bail itself out of this mess. Wall Street has a lot to answer for to Main Street and yet Main Street, which is really where the tax base is, is going to have to bail out Wall Street for Wall Street’s errors. And that is, of course, a tragedy - an economic tragedy. But I am persuaded because I respect people like Larry Summers, I certainly respect Ben Bernanke. I am not so sure about Hank Paulson. I suppose I respect him in a way, but his issue is that he is an investment banker. So it should come as no surprise to anybody that he looks at these things from an investment banker’s perspective. How else can he look at them? It [the bailout] has to happen. I think it is too bad it has to happen, but I think we ought to get ready for building a better financial system, which means building a smaller financial system because what is going on Wall Street is a casino and our croupier has raked too much off of the table before we get paid.

“IDD: When you say our financial system gets smaller, what do you mean by that?

“BOGLE: Revenues will be less for a whole bunch of reasons. First, they are never going to be allowed - with the government being part owners of them - to have 35-to-1 leverage. Number two, we’re going to have better disclosure about what is on that balance sheet. When you think about it, if you are leveraged 35 to 1 and all your assets are Treasury bills I don’t see that as much of a problem. The problem is that none of them are Treasury bills. They are toxic mortgages and we need much better disclosure of that. The third thing is that they are going to have to be content with less revenues.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Aleksandrs Rozens, IDD magazine, November 17, 2008.

Spiegel Online: George Soros - “The economy fell off the cliff” “George Soros, 78, has made billions as a hedge-fund manager and investor. Spiegel spoke with him about the current financial crisis, how he expects President-elect Barack Obama to respond to the economic disaster and the responsibilities borne by speculators.

“SPIEGEL: Mr. Soros, in spite of massive interventions by governments and federal banks the financial crisis is getting worse. The stock markets are in free fall, millions of people could lose their jobs. More and more companies are in trouble, from General Motors in Detroit to BASF in Ludwigshafen. Have you ever seen anything like it?

“Soros: Never. I find the present situation dramatic and overwhelming. In my latest book ‘The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008′ I predicted the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. But to tell you the truth: I did not actually anticipate that it would get as bad as it did. It has gone beyond my wildest imagination.

“‘I find the present situation dramatic and overwhelming.’

“SPIEGEL: What are your fears for the coming months?

“Soros: I think that the dark comes before dawn. The financial markets are under great pressure because of the lack of leadership during the transition period. In the next two months, the markets will experience maximum pressure. Then we will see some initiatives from the Obama administration. How long the crisis lasts will depend on the success of these measures.

“SPIEGEL: The markets don’t seem to have much confidence in the new president - in stark contrast to the enthusiasm in the population. Since Election Day on November 4, stocks have fallen by almost 20%.

“Soros: I have great hopes for Barack Obama. But at the time of the election the financial community had not yet fully grasped the magnitude of the economic decline. They did not anticipate that the default of Lehman Brothers would cause cardiac arrest in the markets. The economy fell off the cliff, you begin to see mangled bodies lying at the bottom.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Spiegel Online, November 24, 2008.

The New York Times: Paulson on new moves in rescue plan “CNBC coverage of opening remarks by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in a news conference describing new steps to ease credit markets.”

Click here for the article.

Source: The New York Times, November 25, 2008.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Fed institutes two more programs to support working of financial markets “The Federal Reserve announced the creation of Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) in conjunction with the Treasury. The program that will involve the Federal Reserve Bank of New York lending up to $200 billion to holders of AAA-rated asset backed securities ‘backed by newly and recently originated consumer and small business loans’.

“The US Treasury Department, under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, will provide $20 billion of credit protection to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for these non-recourse loans. The loans will involve a haircut based on the asset class and there is fee for participation.

“This new program is designed to address problems in the auto, student, credit card, and Small Business Administration guaranteed loans. Loans to consumers have become scarce because securitization of consumer loans has come to a standstill. Funding these loans should result in a resumption of the working of these markets. A date and details are being worked out.

“The Fed also announced it will start purchasing Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Federal Home Loan Banks - this week. Spreads of these securities vis-à-vis Treasury securities have widened sharply in recent days. Purchases of $100 billion in GSE direct obligations and $500 of Mortgage Backed Securities will be undertaken under this program. The objective of this action is to increase the availability of credit for purchases of homes.

“These actions will raise reserves in the banking system and increase the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The sum of today’s action is $800 billion. The Fed’s balance sheet as of November 25, 2008 had ballooned to 2.19 trillion from $995.57 billion as of September 17, 2008.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 25, 2008.

Bloomberg: US pledges top $7.7 trillion to ease frozen credit “The US government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

“The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis.

“When Congress approved the TARP on October 3, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged the need for transparency and oversight. Now, as regulators commit far more money while refusing to disclose loan recipients or reveal the collateral they are taking in return, some Congress members are calling for the Fed to be reined in.

“Bloomberg News tabulated data from the Fed, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and interviewed regulatory officials, economists and academic researchers to gauge the full extent of the government’s rescue effort.

“The bailout includes a Fed program to buy as much as $2.4 trillion in short-term notes, called commercial paper, that companies use to pay bills, begun October 27, and $1.4 trillion from the FDIC to guarantee bank-to-bank loans, started October 14.

“William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the two programs are unlikely to lose money. The bigger risk comes from rescuing companies perceived as ‘too big to fail’, he said.”

Source: Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry, Bloomberg, November 24, 2008.

Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture): Big bailouts, bigger bucks “Whenever I discussed the current bailout situation with people, I find they have a hard time comprehending the actual numbers involved. That became a problem while doing the research for the Bailout Nation book. I needed some way to put this into proper historical perspective.

“If we add in the Citi bailout, the total cost now exceeds $4.6165 trillion. People have a hard time conceptualizing very large numbers, so let’s give this some context. The current Credit Crisis bailout is now the largest outlay in American history.

“Jim Bianco of Bianco Research crunched the inflation adjusted numbers. The bailout has cost more than all of these big budget government expenditures combined:

• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion • Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion • Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion • S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion • Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion • The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est) • Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion • Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion • NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion

TOTAL: $3.92 trillion

“That is $686 billion less than the cost of the credit crisis thus far. The only single American event in history that even comes close to matching the cost of the credit crisis is World War II: Original Cost: $288 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $3.6 trillion. The $4.6165 trillion dollars committed so far is about a trillion dollars ($979 billion dollars) greater than the entire cost of World War II borne by the United States: $3.6 trillion, adjusted for inflation (original cost was $288 billion).

“I estimate that by the time we get through 2010, the final bill may scale up to as much as $10 trillion dollars …”

Source: Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, November 25, 2008.

Casey’s Charts: Budgeting your future “The October statement of the US Treasury Department revealed that the federal deficit has reached the largest level on record. Over the last twelve months, the US government spent $618 billion dollars more than it was able to collect.

“The deficit is already enormous and with all signs pointing towards even greater government spending, the implications are astounding. Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad predicts that next year’s budget deficit will be closer to the tune of $1.5 trillion!”

Source: Casey’s Charts, November 21, 2008.

Breitbart: IMF chief economist - worst of financial crisis yet to come “The IMF’s chief economist has warned that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010, a report said Saturday. Olivier Blanchard also warned that the institution does not have the funds to solve every economic problem.

“‘The worst is yet to come,’ Blanchard said in an interview with the Finanz und Wirtschaft newspaper, adding that ‘a lot of time is needed before the situation becomes normal.’

“He said economic growth would not kick in until 2010 and it will take another year before the global financial situation became normal again.

“The International Monetary Fund on Friday promised to help Latvia deal with its economic crisis after it assisted Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia and Pakistan.

“But Blanchard said the IMF was not able to solve all financial issues, in particular problems of liquidity.

“Withdrawals of capital leading to problems of liquidity ‘can be so significant that the IMF alone cannot counter them’, he said, adding that massive withdrawals of investments from emerging countries could represent ‘hundreds of billions of dollars. We do not have this money. We never had it,’ he said.”

Source: Breitbart, November 22, 2008.

The Wall Street Journal: Obama names his economic team “Looking to hit the ground running on January 20 and restore confidence, President-elect Barack Obama seals up his economic appointments.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2008.

Bloomberg: Obama names Volker to head panel on reviving economy “President-elect Barack Obama named former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to head a new White House economic board that will propose ways to revive growth as the US grapples with an ‘economic crisis of historic proportions’.

“‘At this defining moment for our nation, the old ways of thinking and acting just won’t do,’ Obama said at a news conference in Chicago, his third in as many days.

“Volcker, 81, will be chairman of the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. The panel’s top staff official will be Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist who will also be a member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers.

“The panel, which will include experts from outside government, will meet about once a month and periodically brief Obama with advice on how to shore up financial markets. Volcker’s position will be part-time.

“‘Sometimes policymaking in Washington can become too insular,’ Obama said. ‘The walls of the echo chamber can sometimes keep out fresh voices and new ways of thinking, and those who serve in Washington don’t always have a ground-level sense of which programs and policies are working.’

“Volcker, who throttled the economy to crush inflation in the 1980s, was an adviser to Obama during the presidential campaign. He was a candidate for Treasury secretary, a job that went to Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner.

“‘He is one of the most independent-thinking guys you could find and brings massive reputation,’ Ethan Harris, co-head of US economic research at Barclays Capital in New York, said before today’s announcement.”

Source: Kim Chipman and Catherine Dodge, Bloomberg, November 26, 2008.

ABC News: Summers to be top white house economic adviser at NEC “ABC News has learned that President-elect Obama has decided to name former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers the director of the National Economic Council, essentially the president’s senior economic adviser.

“Part of the Executive Office of the President, the NEC was created for the purpose of advising the President on matters related to US and global economic policy. The NEC has four functions, by executive order: ensuring that programs and policy decisions are consistent with the President’s economic goals, monitoring the implementation of the President’s economic policy agenda, coordinating policy-making for domestic and international economic issues, and coordinating economic policy advice for the President.

“Summers was the 71st Secretary of the Treasury, serving from July 1999 until the end of the Clinton administration in January 2001, having previously served as undersecretary for international affairs and deputy secretary of the Treasury. He also served as chief economist of the World Bank.

“At the Treasury Department in the 1990s, Summers worked closely with Tim Geithner, the man Obama intends to nominate to be the next Secretary of the Treasury. The two are said to have an excellent working relationship.

“Some Democrats say that Obama and Summers have an understanding that when current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s term expires in 2010, Obama will name Summers to take his place.”

Source: ABC News, November 22, 2008.

Fox Business: Wilbur Ross on the next Treasury Secretary

Source: Fox Business, November 21, 2008.

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): “Inflate or die, which one will it be?” “Suddenly, the whole investment world believes in deflation. The TIPS (inflation adjusted government bonds) have collapsed, commodities have crashed, gold goes nowhere, bonds remain near their highs, the dollar remains strong.

“Meanwhile, Bernanke and Paulson are battling the forces of deflation with all the ammunition at their command. I believe Fed chief Bernanke will fight deflation with the last dollar available at the Fed. Paulson will give the US Treasury away before he gives in to deflation and economic contraction.

“How will we know whether Bernanke-Paulson are winning their desperate anti-deflation battle? If they are winning, the dollar and bonds will head down and gold will head higher. If they are losing the battle, the Dow will break below 7,470 and the bear market will continue to eat away at US stocks and the US economy.

“What we are witnessing now is the single greatest economic battle of the century. ‘Inflate or die’, which one will it be?

“Remember, Bernanke’s worst nightmare is dealing with out-of-control deflation. The Fed can halt inflation by pushing up interest rates, but in the case of deflation, the Fed can be helpless. And I ask myself, what happens if Bernanke finds that he is losing the battle against deflation? In that case, we are all survivors. I’ve been there before - during the 1930s. I survived then, and I’ll survive now, and so will my subscribers.

“If Bernanke and Paulson are winning the anti-deflation battle, I believe the first ‘signal’ would be rising gold. So far, it appears to me that gold is undecided. Gold corrected down to the 717 area, then rallied above 800, and now appears to be in the process of testing the 800 level. It would be a plus for gold if December gold can hold above 800. Gold has never been a more important barometer for the future.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 26, 2008.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Q3 GDP preliminary estimate “Real gross domestic product declined at an annual average rate of 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008, slightly weaker than the advance estimate of a 0.3% drop. Going forward, real GDP is expected to show a decline that is upward of 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The Fed is widely expected to lower the Federal funds rate to 0.50% on December 16, 2008.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 25, 2008.

Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture): ECRI leading indicators fall to lowest level ever “One of the questions I seem to be getting all the time is ‘when is this recession going to end?’ To answer that, I turned to Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Their leading versus coincident chart provides insight into that question.

“The cyclical turns in the leading occur before the coincident - they seem to diverge now and then, and that can be telling. The current story they tell is clearly one of a quickly worsening recession with no end in sight.”

Source: Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, November 26, 2008.

Wachovia: US economy in recession mode “Economic problems began to show up in our model in the fourth quarter of last year as the recession probability rose sharply to 75%, and since then the probability has remained high. While the official recession call will come from the National Bureau of Economic Research sometime next year, for decision-makers the operational guideline is a recession outlook today.”

Source: Wachovia, November 24, 2008.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Durable goods orders show widespread weakness “The 6.2% drop in orders of durable goods reflects widespread weakness in bookings of durable factory goods.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 26, 2008.

Breitbart: First-ever decline in online retail spending “Online retail spending fell four percent in the first weeks of November from the same period last year, the first ever such decline in e-commerce spending, online researcher comScore reported on Tuesday.

“The Reston, Virginia-based company said 8.2 billion dollars was spent online during the first 23 days of November, four percent less than during the same period last year, when 8.5 billion dollars was spent online.

“ComScore forecast that online retail spending for the November-December holiday period will be flat versus year ago, significantly lower than last year’s growth rate of 19 percent.

“‘With consumer confidence low and disposable income tight, the first weeks of November have been very disappointing, with online retail spending declining versus year ago,’ said comScore chairman Gian Fulgoni.”

Source: Breitbart, November 25, 2008.

Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Weakness in consumer spending most likely to persist “Nominal consumer spending fell 1.0% in October, while inflation adjusted consumer spending dropped 0.5%. Inflation adjusted consumer spending has declined for five straight months, the longest string of declines since the 1981-82 recession. Based on October data and conservative assumptions about November and December, consumer spending is most likely to post a 4.0% drop in the fourth quarter after a 3.7% decline in the third quarter.

“The 0.3% increase in personal income during October follows a 0.1% gain in September that was affected by hurricanes. Personal saving as a percent of disposable income was 2.4% in October compared with 1.0% in September. A small upward drift in personal saving is emerging.”

Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 26, 2008.

Standard & Poor’s: S&P/Case-Shiller - national trend of home price declines continues “Data through September 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed since 2007.

“The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price remained in double digits, posting a record 16.6% decline in the third quarter of 2008 versus the third quarter of 2007. This has increased from the annual declines of 15.1% and 14.0%, reported for the 2nd and 1st quarters of the year, respectively.

“‘The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals,’ says David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.”

Source: Standard & Poor’s, November 25, 2008.

The Wall Street Journal: US agrees to rescue struggling Citigroup “The federal government agreed Sunday night to rescue Citigroup by helping to absorb potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in losses on toxic assets on its balance sheet and injecting fresh capital into the troubled financial giant.

“The agreement marks a new phase in government efforts to stabilize US banks and securities firms. After injecting nearly $300 billion of capital into financial institutions, federal officials now appear to be willing to help shoulder bad assets, on a targeted basis, from specific institutions.

“Citigroup is one of the world’s best-known banking brands, with more than 200 million customer accounts in 106 countries. Its plunging stock price threatened to spook customers and imperil the bank.

“If the government’s rescue plan is a success, it could help bring stability to the entire financial system. If it doesn’t, even deeper doubts about the industry’s future could spread.

“Under the plan, Citigroup and the government have identified a pool of about $306 billion in troubled assets. Citigroup will absorb the first $29 billion in losses in that portfolio. After that, three government agencies - the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. - will take on any additional losses, though Citigroup could have to share a small portion of additional losses.

“The plan would essentially put the government in the position of insuring a slice of Citigroup’s balance sheet. That means taxpayers will be on the hook if Citigroup’s massive portfolios of mortgage, credit cards, commercial real-estate and big corporate loans continue to sour.

“In exchange for that protection, Citigroup will give the government warrants to buy shares in the company.

“In addition, the Treasury Department also will inject $20 billion of fresh capital into Citigroup. That comes on top of the $25 billion infusion that Citigroup recently received as part of the broader US banking-industry bailout.”

Source: David Enrich, Carrick Mollenkamp, Matthias Rieker, Damian Paletta and Jon Hilsenrath, The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2008.

Paul Kedrosky (Infectious Greed): Citigroup - bad bank to create bad bank incubator “I know it isn’t precisely what this headline means - ‘bad bank’ is a euphemism in bailout circles for walling off from one another functional and non-functional parts of banks - but I still like this from the WSJ today.

“To my way of thinking, if we’re interested in creating bad banks, it’s worth knowing that Citi is a veritable ‘bad bank’ incubator.”

Source: Paul Kedrosky, Infectious Greed, November 23, 2008.

CNBC: Mobuis - attraction of Treasurys will wane with lower yields “Despite continued woes in the US economy, the greenback has seen an unexpected surge against currencies around the world. As investors become ever more risk averse, emerging markets are bearing the brunt of a flight to safety.

“But Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, sees a reversal around the corner.

“‘As everyone is rushing into US Treasurys, they need US dollars to do that and have therefore sold everything in sight,’ Mobius told CNBC. ‘This is why emerging markets have gone down, why commodities have gone down as everyone is moving into dollars.’

“But Mobius said that ‘as US Treasury rates go down to 1% or below you will see the attraction of US Treasurys waning’.

“Mobius also believes that emerging markets have learnt a bitter lesson since the Asian Crisis of 1997-1998. ‘One big lesson was ‘don’t borrow in a currency you are not earning in’,’ he said.

“Emerging markets have also curtailed lending and built up foreign reserves, which they can call upon in almost ‘a reversal of 1997 where the emerging markets were debtors, they are now the creditors’, he added.

“But the surge in the greenback has taken a lot of investors by surprise, Mobius said.

“Having learned from the Asian crisis, companies hedged currencies and ‘ironically these hedges have really worked against them in some cases … as they are over-hedged and it went against them as they were expecting the dollar to go weaker and it went the other way,’ he said.”

Source: CNBC, November 20, 2008.

Bespoke: GSE mortgage spreads tighten “The Fed’s actions this morning [Tuesday] have certainly helped to thaw the credit markets so far. As shown below, spreads between 10-year Fannie Mae bonds and the 10-year US Treasury tightened significantly today. While they are certainly moving in the right direction, even after today’s record decline, spreads are still higher today than they were just a little more than two weeks ago.”

Source: Bespoke, November 25, 2008.

Bespoke: 30-Year fixed mortgage rates falling back “Talk of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling back below 6% filled the airwaves yesterday [Tuesday], so below we provide a two-year chart of the rate. Even as the Fed funds rate has fallen from 5.5% to 1%, mortgage rates have failed to decline along with it, which hasn’t done much to help the struggling housing market. Economists and investors are hoping that the Fed’s actions yesterday will start pushing mortgage rates lower. This will help ease the credit crisis as banks will become more willing to lend, providing better interest rates for potential homebuyers. 5.81% is better than the 6.4% seen at the start of the month, but the rate could still stand to drop quite a bit.”

Source: Bespoke, November 26, 2008.

Frank Holmes (US Global Investors): Stock market reversal is near “According to research from Thomas Weisel, the S&P 500 has been a ‘Buy’ since that index closed at 800 last Friday, based on its probability models. They say a verification could come in early December, when monthly liquidity figures come out - if there is extreme positive liquidity to accompany the technical ‘Buy’ signal, history shows that on average there’s a six-month price rally of 18.5%.

“Our oscillator tells us that, statistically speaking, the S&P 500 is extremely oversold and thus due for a reversal toward the mean. The chart above shows that the S&P 500 is now down about four standard deviations over 60 trading days, which is a far more dramatic decline than we saw in 1998, when Russia endured a currency crisis and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management threatened the global financial sector, and in 2001 after the September 11 terror attacks.

“The possible turnaround that we are seeing is not wishful thinking, but it’s not a sure thing, either. Our confidence grows with every positive data point indicating that a reversal is near, and we will continue watching for these indicators …”

Source: Frank Holmes, US Global Investors - Weekly Investor Alert, November 28, 2008.

Eoin Treacy (Fullermoney): Start thinking about stocks to buy “Angst, fear and anxiety are all related emotions which come to the fore when we feel under pressure and begin to doubt our abilities as investors. However, when we see a market fall such as that of the last few months, we have to rein in the temptation to succumb to such emotions. It will prove more profitable over the medium to longer-term, to turn objective about the opportunities we are being presented with sooner rather than later.

“This does not mean one piles into the market with every spare unit of currency right now, but it is a time to begin to think about the shares one wants to own in a recovery environment. From a value perspective there are a number of instruments which have been hit particularly hard and somewhat unjustifiably by the credit / solvency crisis.

“We now need to begin to think more about recovery potential rather than further potential losses. Stocks and corporate bonds are no longer expensive, some are downright cheap. We have not reached the deep value levels seen in the past, but these need not necessarily appear at the numerical low for the market, if they appear at all. However, one looks at the market, given the extent of the fall, this is not a time to become increasingly bearish, but is one in which to make provisions and possible purchases for a recovery scenario.”

Source: Eoin Treacy, Fullermoney, November 27, 2008.

David Fuller (Fullermoney): Watch developments in US rather than invest there “I believe that America’s problems of debt and deficits are worse than for many other countries. More importantly, I will be guided by price charts, which reflect the collective decisions and views of everyone else. In terms of investment appropriateness, my current view is that I would rather watch developments in the US than invest there.

“The credit / solvency crisis is clearly America’s biggest problem at this time. This is not necessarily true for all other countries, although all are obviously affected to a greater or lesser degree by developments in the USA. I suggest that the West’s credit / solvency crisis was only the second biggest problem for Asia’s developing economies.

“Asia’s biggest recent problem, I maintain, was inflation, not least from previously soaring energy and food prices. That crisis, which in comparison was the USA’s second biggest problem, has largely disappeared today. I suspect commodity inflation will not re-emerge for at least the next year or two, subject to supply, global GDP and the USD.

“Consequently, I believe that developing Asia would be in an excellent position for recovery, were it not for the West’s ongoing credit / solvency crisis. Therefore, the worse the USA’s problems become, the more this will be a drag on Asia’s own recovery. Conversely, if the USA somehow avoids a destructive deflation, Asia should still bounce back more quickly.

“I will invest accordingly.”

Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, November 26, 2008.

Jeffrey Saut (Raymond James): Geithner gotcha “We still think October 10 represented the capitulation ‘lows’. As Barron’s notes, ‘For a bullish spin, though a weak one, the market has not made a significantly lower low since October 10. The word ’significantly’ is important because some major market indexes, including the Nasdaq, have indeed been setting new lows. But the trend, if we can call it that, has been more sideways than decidedly down.

“A better, but still weak, bullish angle comes from trading volume, or the amount of money committed to either the bull or bear side each day. All of the higher volume days that have occurred since October 10 have come on days when prices rose. Theoretically, when prices are going up and volume increases, it means that investors are chasing the market higher. That’s a sure sign of demand. Subsequent declines occurred with lower volume, so we can conclude that the desire to sell was not quite as strong as it was before October 10.”

Source: Jeffrey Saut, Raymond James, November 24, 2008.

Bespoke: Analysts at their least bullish levels ever “While Wall Street analysts are typically known for being overly optimistic, based on at least one measure, they have never been less bullish. According to Bloomberg statistics that track analyst buy, sell, and hold ratings, only 36% of all ratings are currently buys. As the chart below shows, this is the lowest level since at least 1997, and significantly lower than the 75% level we saw in 1997 and 2000. However, since the Spitzer crackdown on Wall Street research and the bursting of the tech bubble, analysts have grown increasingly shy about putting a buy rating on a stock they cover.”

Source: Bespoke, November 25, 2008.

Bespoke: Q3 and Q4 sector earnings growth “With about 96% of S&P 500 companies having reported third quarter earnings, current EPS growth numbers for the quarter should be very close to what the final tally will read. As shown below, four sectors have had negative year over year growth in the third quarter, while six have had positive growth. Financials and consumer discretionary were once again the sectors that brought down the index as a whole. Financials have seen earnings decline by 129.7% in Q3 ‘08 versus Q3 ‘07. Consumer discretionary has seen earnings decline by 41.4%. Telecom and utilities are the two other sectors with negative Q3 earnings growth, and the S&P 500 as a whole currently stands at -18.4%. The energy sector has had by far the largest earnings growth at 57.4% versus the third quarter of 2007. Consumer staples ranks second behind energy at 10.9%, followed by health care, materials, technology, and industrials.

“So what does the fourth quarter look like? Analysts are expecting the S&P 500 to actually show positive year over year earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 4%. This is because the financial sector is expected to show growth of 64.2% due to the fact that Q4 ‘07 was so bad. Utilities, health care, and consumer staples are the other three sectors expected to see earnings growth, while consumer discretionary, materials, energy, telecom, technology and industrials are expected to see earnings declines.”

 

Source: Bespoke, November 23, 2008.

Naked Capitalism: Cheery chart - no corporate profits for two years during depression “In case you are starting to look to past crises for clues as to how our financial mess might play out, here is a Great Depression factoid (from Levy Forecast, November 2008):

“Note that the report itself argues that the US will have a ‘contained’ depression, with deep recession conditions for a protracted period and an anemic recovery. It does not believe the zero operating profits pattern of the Great Depression will be repeated.”

Source: Naked Capitalism, November 23, 2008.

Bloomberg: Hambro sees “great entry points” for commodity stocks “Evy Hambro, who manages the world’s largest mining and gold funds at BlackRock, talks with Bloomberg about the outlook for commodities and mining stocks.”

Source: Bloomberg, November 21, 2008.

Bloomberg: Marc Faber says gold is most precious asset

Source: Bloomberg, November 25, 2008.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year “The bank said the damage caused by the financial excesses of the last quarter century was forcing the world’s authorities to take steps that had never been tried before.

“This gamble was likely to end in one of two extreme ways: with either a resurgence of inflation; or a downward spiral into depression, civil disorder, and possibly wars. Both outcomes will cause a rush for gold.

“‘They are throwing the kitchen sink at this,’ said Tom Fitzpatrick, the bank’s chief technical strategist.

“‘The world is not going back to normal after the magnitude of what they have done. When the dust settles this will either work, and the money they have pushed into the system will feed though into an inflation shock.

“‘Or it will not work because too much damage has already been done, and we will see continued financial deterioration, causing further economic deterioration, with the risk of a feedback loop. We don’t think this is the more likely outcome, but as each week and month passes, there is a growing danger of vicious circle as confidence erodes,” he said.

“‘This will lead to political instability. We are already seeing countries on the periphery of Europe under severe stress. Some leaders are now at record levels of unpopularity. There is a risk of domestic unrest, starting with strikes because people are feeling disenfranchised.”

“Gold traders are playing close attention to reports from Beijing that the China is thinking of boosting its gold reserves from 600 tonnes to nearer 4,000 tonnes to diversify away from paper currencies. ‘If true, this is a very material change,’ he said.

“Citigroup said the blast-off was likely to occur within two years, and possibly as soon as 2009. Gold was trading yesterday at $812 an ounce. It is well off its all-time peak of $1,030 in February but has held up much better than other commodities over the last few months - reverting to is historical role as a safe-haven store of value and a de facto currency.”

Source: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, November 27, 2008.

James Turk (GoldMoney): Scenario for gold is bullish “Gold soared $50 this past Friday. It began the day at $748 and was trading at $800 when the day ended.

“It is rare for gold to achieve such a huge one-day gain. In fact, I checked my records for the past twenty years and found only one other instance when gold climbed $50 or more in a day. Interestingly, the other occurrence was on September 17, 2008, barely two months ago. That rally also took gold back above $800.

“That these two rallies - unique and rare in their magnitude - occurred so near to one another is significant. Is there a message from these two events? Yes, indeed!

“Gold itself is telling us two things. First, there is an enormous short position in gold. Huge rallies occur for a reason, and short covering is always a factor. In order to limit their losses, shorts will bid up the market in a desperate attempt to cover their position. The rule of thumb is straightforward - the bigger the short position, then the bigger the rally.

“Second, and more importantly, these huge rallies are signaling that gold under $800 is too cheap. A higher price is needed to bring supply and demand back into balance.

“There is other, more than ample evidence to support this same conclusion. The demand for physical metal remains strong.

“Friday’s trading action adds to the growing body of evidence that the correction in gold that began after making a new record high in March above $1,020 is ending. The low in gold in all likelihood is probably in place. The $700 level has been tested and re-tested, and the huge rallies launched from prices below $800 mean that other attempts to take gold into the $700s will be met with good demand.

“Gold remains in a bull market, and so does silver. National currencies are in a bear market. Get ready for the next leg in the precious metal’s ongoing bull market.”

Source: James Turk, GoldMoney, November 24, 2008.

The Australian: Perth Mint suspends orders amid rush to buy bullion “Fears of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush.

“With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.

“As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before.

“Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders.

“He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying - making up 80% of its sales.

“‘We have never seen this before and are working right at capacity. And we are seeing it from clients in the shop buying one ounce, right up to 30,000 ounces from overseas clients,’ Mr Currie said.”

Source: Sarah-Jane Tasker, The Australian, November 22, 2008.

Mike Wittner (Société Générale): Oil prices susceptible to further deleveraging “Unless oil prices melt down again this week, Opec will not cut production at this weekend’s informal meeting in Cairo and instead will wait until the cartel’s gathering in December to reduce output quotas by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day, says Mike Wittner, global head of oil research at Société Générale.

“Mr Wittner says that Opec simply does not have enough information on the effectiveness of the production cuts that it has already made, or sufficient feedback from its customers, to proceed with further reductions in output. ‘We see (a decision to maintain current production quotas) as a 60-40 probability and the outcome of the meeting could easily be affected by price action this week,’ says Mr Wittner, who notes that signals from Opec have been mixed so far.

“Mr Wittner says tanker tracking data suggest there has been a ‘very significant cut’ in Opec’s oil production in November, down 1.2 million barrels a day compared with October.

“But SocGen says fundamentals will be perceived to be weak until the market becomes convinced Opec has cut supplies, given that a tanker requires six weeks to travel from the Persian Gulf to the US. Only then will November’s cuts appear in lower crude imports and stocks, which is what the market wants to see.

“‘Oil prices will remain susceptible to further deleveraging (by hedge funds) and caution remains the order of the day,’ concludes Mr Wittner.”

Source: Mike Wittner, Société Générale (via Financial Times), November 25, 2008.

Financial Times: EU’s stimulus plan met with doubts “The European Union’s proposal on Wednesday for a €200 billion economic stimulus plan for the bloc was met by immediate doubts on whether member states would back the measures aimed at avoiding a deeper recession.

“The proposal envisages that about €170 billion would be contributed by the bloc’s 27 member states through tax and infrastructure plans. The European Commission and the European Investment Bank would provide the remaining €30 billion, partly through the accelerated pay-out of selected spending programmes.

“The package, which is larger than expected, represents about 1.5% of the EU’s gross domestic product. It needs to be reviewed by EU finance ministers next week and by government leaders in mid-December.

“Economists and politicians quickly questioned whether all member states would step up as required or whether individual governments’ responses would diverge from the Commission’s suggested measures.

“Analysts at Capital Economics, the consultants, said: ‘The proposed boost has yet to be agreed by member states and would sadly not do enough to bring European economies out of the gloom for some time anyway.’

“Business Europe, the main business lobby group in Brussels, agreed with the proposals but said a ‘clear commitment from EU member states’ was needed to implement stimulus packages of at least 1.2% of GDP.”

Source: Nikki Tait, Financial Times, November 26, 2008.

BBC News: Boost for Spanish and Italian economies “Spain and Italy have announced plans worth billions of euros to kick-start their economies.

“Italy approved an 80 billion euro emergency package that included tax breaks for poorer families, public works projects and mortgage relief.

“Spain unveiled an 11 billion euro plan aimed at creating 300,000 jobs.

“The announcements are the latest in a series of attempts by EU governments to shore up their economies as the financial crisis bites.

“Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called on to Italians to keep on spending. ‘We have helped citizens, the less well off, so that they can continue to consume,’ he said. ‘The intensity and duration of the crisis depends on all of us.’

“Spain’s Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, said the money will be mainly invested in infrastructure and public works.

“Spain’s unemployment reached 12.8% in October - the highest in the eurozone.”

Source: BBC News, November 28, 2008.

BBC News: German business confidence dives “Business confidence in Germany fell in November to the lowest level since 1993, according to the key Ifo economic climate index. The index, based on a poll of 7,000 companies, has dropped for six consecutive months, the Munich-based Ifo institute said.

“The index stands now at 85.8, down 4.4 points from October.

“‘The downturn has worsened and will now have an impact on the labour market,’ Ifo said in a statement.

“Germany’s exports have been hard hit by falling demand worldwide, with some auto makers seeking state help to maintain production.

“On Friday another key indicator, the Markit purchasing managers’ index, revealed that business activity in the 15 countries sharing the euro had fallen in November to a ten-year low.”

Sources: BBC News, November 24, 2008 and Victoria Marklew, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 24, 2008.

Financial Times: Eurozone set for rate cut of at least 50bp “Eurozone official interest rates are almost certain to be slashed again next week by at least half a percentage point after a survey on Thursday showed the region facing its worst downturn since the recession of the early 1990s.

“Economic confidence in the 15-country region crashed this month to its lowest point since August 1993, the European Commission reported. With inflation also falling rapidly, the European Central Bank has not sought to stop financial markets assuming its main interest rate will be cut next Thursday from 3.25% to 2.75% or below.

“Public ECB comments show the bank remains cautious about the pace of cuts, pointing to a half-point reduction next week - the same as in October and this month. But economic news has been consistently gloomier than expected, strengthening the case for a larger cut.”

Source: Ralph Atkins, Financial Times, November 27, 2008.

Financial Times: UK tax hit to fund £20 billion fiscal stimulus “Taxpayers face six years of austerity, paying for the consequences of recession and a £20 billion fiscal stimulus unveiled on Monday by Alistair Darling as he detailed the most dismal Budget outlook seen since 1993.

“National insurance contributions for both employees and employers will rise by 0.5%. Those earning more than £100,000 will pay more income tax - with those on £150,000 facing a new higher tax rate of 45% - and public spending faces its biggest squeeze for 15 years - although all these measures will not kick in until 2011, well after the next election. The tax clawback would leave someone earning £150,000 paying an extra £3,040 in tax.

“Mr Darling detailed the planned tax rises and spending restraint as he sought to show the City and foreign investors that Britain had a clear plan to restore prudence to the public finances after truly shocking forecasts for public borrowing in the next two years.

“Public borrowing will hit a record level of £118 billion in 2009-10 and will fall to a level the government considers prudent only in 2015-16, far later than City forecasts had expected.

“Government debt will blast through the current 40% of national income limit, racing to 57% in 2012-13, when it will top the £1,000 billion mark for the first time.

“Britain’s output will continue to fall until the second half of next year, the chancellor added, as he presented a gloomy forecast with the recession mitigated only in part by the fiscal boost delivered predominantly through a 2.5 percentage point cut in value added tax from next week and lasting until the end of 2009.

“Over the next year, the cut in the VAT rate to 15% will be augmented by £2.5 billion of additional capital expenditure projects brought forward from 2010-11, a £60 payment to every pensioner, an earlier increase in child benefit and a deferral in the planned increases in vehicle excise duties.

“Mr Darling also used the crisis to stage a series of tactical retreats from earlier decisions, announcing a rethink of his plans to reform air passenger taxes and an exemption from tax for the dividends of UK companies’ foreign subsidiaries.

“Together the Treasury assumes the £20 billion package - about 1% of national income for a little over a year - will prevent the economy sinking by a further 0.5%, although Mr Darling’s forecast was for a contraction of 0.75% to 1.25% in 2009.”

Source: Chris Giles and George Parker, Financial Times, November 24, 2008.

James Pressler (Northern Trust): China - getting serious about the slowing economy “The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) slashed its benchmark one-year loan and deposit rates by 108 basis points apiece today [Wednesday], reducing them to 5.58% and 2.52%, respectively. This dramatic move comes well after the industrialized economies coordinated a major monetary easing - most central banks have already turned their attention toward liquidity concerns and an eventual global recession. Only three months ago, Beijing had a proactive mindset, thinking about economic stimulus to compensate for the post-Games lull and a general slowdown in global production. The first question that comes to our mind is why does the government suddenly seem to be lagging in its response?

“One fact worth noting is that the immediate economic impact on the Chinese economy has not been as clear-cut as in the industrialized countries. The Olympic Games threw in plenty of distractions and had widespread effects on economic indicators. Retail sales were positively impacted from the many tourists flooding into the country, but conversely, industrial production fell off as many factories closed in response to temporary anti-pollution measures. The conclusion of numerous infrastructure projects shifted flows of goods and inputs, and plenty of other one-off factors added a lot of noise to China’s economic statistics. Only after the Games passed and some of those factors fell from the calculations did a clearer picture emerge, and the trends are not promising. Industrial production continues to fall, and monthly export growth is showing signs of weakness.

“To be fair, the PBoC issued minor rate cuts over the past three months, and the government did offer a supplementary fiscal stimulus package. Today’s more dramatic move suggests that PBoC officials are now firmly convinced that China will be joining the rest of the world in a significant economic slowdown. Some forecasts recently suggested that after GDP growth of nearly 12% in 2007, the economy could slow to below 10% this year and perhaps 7.5% in 2009. While the growth rate itself is still enviable, officials in Beijing realize all too well that a deceleration of over four percentage points will not go unnoticed, and they will likely be taking more action before the year is up.”

Source: James Pressler, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, November 26, 2008.

Bloomberg: China reserves to pass $2 trillion; Russia’s fall “China’s foreign-exchange reserves may top $2 trillion for the first time by the end of this year, giving the world’s most-populous nation more firepower to stimulate its economy during a global recession.

“China’s holdings increased 25% in the first nine months of the year to stand at $1.906 trillion on September 30. Reserves shrank in Japan and Russia, the nations with the second- and third-largest stockpiles. Russia drained a quarter of its currency and gold assets in less than four months to prop up the ruble, which has dropped 14% since June 30.”

Source: Lee J. Miller and Zhang Dingmin, Bloomberg, November 28, 2008.

Breitbart: Analysts - India economy will be OK despite attacks “The terror attacks that rocked India’s financial capital may depress stocks, dampen tourism and slow new investment, but are unlikely to inflict long-term damage on the nation’s economy, analysts and business people said Thursday.

“‘This is a challenge for the government to maintain law and order in the country,’ said Takahira Ogawa, director of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor’s in Singapore. ‘At this stage, I don’t think there will be any major impact on the macroeconomic or fiscal position of the government.’

“The attacks, which began Wednesday night when gunmen invaded two posh hotels, a restaurant and several other sites in downtown Mumbai, came as India was struggling to contain fallout from the global financial crisis.

“Foreign investors have already pulled $13.5 billion out of the nation’s stock market this year, driving the benchmark Sensex index down 57% and punishing the rupee. Liquidity has dried up, economic growth is slowing and people are spending less money.

“The attacks are ‘a challenge to the economic resurgence in India’, said Habil Khorakiwala, chairman of Wockhardt, an Indian pharmaceutical company.

“‘The targets identified clearly demonstrate that the intention is to create panic and shatter the confidence in the minds of investors in India and global investors coming to India,’ he said in a statement. ‘This war has to be fought together by all across, to protect the safety of Indian people, for economic resurgence and growth of the Indian nation.’”

Source: Breitbart, November 27, 2008.

BBC News: Saudi Arabia cuts interest rate “Saudi Arabia has cut a key interest rate and taken steps to encourage lending as it faces the slowdown. The central bank reduced the repo interest rate from 4% to 3%, in an attempt to boost liquidity. It also reduced the cash reserve requirements for banks, seen as a way to improve the availability of credit.

“The move came a day after the benchmark Tadawul All Share Index fell to its lowest level in five years, hit by the global slowdown and falling oil prices. The index shed 9.2% on Saturday, the start of its trading week. Since the start of the year the index is down more than 60%.

“The Gulf region has been hard hit by a huge fall in oil prices, a key export. Oil prices are around two thirds lower than they were in July when they hit a record above $147 a barrel.”

Source: BBC News, November 23, 2008.

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