Posts Tagged ‘Advertisement’
Adam Hewison: A Sneak Peek S&P 500, Dollar, Gold, and Crude Oil
Tuesday, March 16th, 2010
Adam Hewison is back with four new videos, sharing his outlook for the S&P500, the dollar, gold, and crude oil in the near term. Even if you’re not a trader, Hewison’s seasoned way of explaining ideas is very well informed and useful, and his videos are worth watching, and keeping tabs on.
Title : A Sneak Peek At The S&P 500
This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.
“While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today’s short video I show you some of the elements that I think should be cause for concern.”
Title: Is The US Dollar Reversing Again?
“It’s been a while since we did a video on the euro/dollar relationship. This relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today’s short video I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.”
Last week, Jim Rogers discussed his long position in the euro. The reversal of the dollar, may also be a sign that ‘risk’ is back on, though I suspect that will have more to do with the USDJPY cross. For the time being, however, the dollar looks set to weaken against the yen too.
This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.
Title: A Sneak Peek At Gold
This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.
“Last week we gave you a Trade Triangle alert to exit the gold market on the long side. Since that alert was issued gold has dropped significantly.”
Hewison points to a very specific key level of $1091.19. If gold breaches that level, Hewison says it will test around 1060, a he believes that gold will be range-bound for the next while.
Title: A Quick Peek at Crude Oil
Tags: Advertisement, Amp, Breaches, Capital Gold, Commodities, Convincing Manner, Crude Oil, Dollar Gold, Elements, Euro Dollar, Exit, Gold, Gold Market, Jim Rogers, Measures, New Highs, Outlook, Precautionary Measure, Relationship, risk, Sneak Peek, Tabs, Trade Triangle, US Dollar, Videos, Yen
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China Construction: Boom or Bust?
Monday, March 15th, 2010
It would not take too much guessing to figure out where the bulk of the world’s construction activity is taking place. Of course, it is in China, but who would have thought global construction would decline from a year-on-year rate of almost 20% to close to zero once China is stripped out? This is what the fascinating chart below by CRU, WSD and Mcquarie Research (via Agora Financial’s 5 Min Forecast) highlights.
“The Chinese are laying highways like nobody’s business,” added Agora’s Chris Mayer. “By the end of 2008, China had an estimated 60,000 km of highway. The US has 75,000 km. Over the next few years, China plans to have 85,000 km of roads.”
Is building activity in China a boom or a bubble? Please share your thoughts with readers by posting a comment. (Click on “Comments” below the heading of this post and type away.)
Source: Agora Financial’s 5 Min Forecast, March 10, 2010.
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Tags: Advertisement, Agora Financial, Bust, China, China Construction, Chris Mayer, Construction Activity, Construction Boom, Emerging Markets, Global Construction, Heading, Highways, Mcquarie, Share Your Thoughts, Wsd
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Face-to face with the bears: Marc Faber and Mish Shedlock
Monday, March 15th, 2010
In the three-part interview below, Aaron Task and Henry Blodget of Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker interview Marck Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, and Mish Shedlock, investment advisor at Sitka Pacific Capital and author of the economics blog, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis. They discuss, among others, the economic outlook, inflation vs deflation, and the prospects for stock markets.
These are admittedly two of the most bearish commentators around, but well worth listening to.
Part 1: Economic outlook
Source: Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, March 12, 2010.
Part 2: Inflation vs deflation
Source: Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, March 12, 2010.
Part 3: Prospects for stock markets
Source: Yahoo Finance - Tech Ticker, March 12, 2010.
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Tags: Advertisement, Bears, Boom, Commentators, Deflation, Doom, Economic Outlook, Economic Trend, Economics, Face To Face, Gloom Boom And Doom Report, Henry Blodget, inflation, Investment Advisor, Marc Faber, Marck, Prospects, Stock Markets, Trend Analysis, Yahoo Finance
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Why Gold is Declining (The King Report)
Friday, March 12th, 2010
We received several inquiries about why gold is declining. Our view is gold is retrenching because:
• UK QE has ended (for now)
• US QE will end in three weeks (for now)
• The ECB did a massive €295B drain (can you imagine the market reaction if Bennie Mae drained $500B in one shot?]
• China is signaling that it wants to rein in inflation by tightening credit, hiking real estate down payments to 50% and allowing the yuan to appreciate
• Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has ebbed (for now)
• Food commodities have broken down
• Gold stocks have greatly underperformed gold since mid-January (gold stocks tend to lead) S&P
S&P 500 Index, Gold and Gold Stocks (GDX) – Gold stocks out-performed gold until late October. Then they traded together until mid-January. Since then gold stocks have under-performed gold.
Source: The Big Picture, March 12, 2010
Tags: Advertisement, Amp, Big 12, Big Picture, China, Debt Crisis, ECB, Europe, Food Commodities, Gold Source, gold stocks, Imagine, Index Stocks, inflation, Inquiries, Lead, Mae, Qe, Real Estate, Sovereign Debt, Yuan
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Chart: US Consumer Holds Back Growth
Friday, March 12th, 2010
An interesting chart comes from the Consumer Metrics Institute (via Clusterstock - Chart of the Day) that constructs a US consumption index based on actual transactions data for a range of major discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and vacations.
Although the time series is rather short, the “Daily Growth Index” usually leads changes in US GDP (see chart below). Based on the historical relationship, the Index would seem to indicate slower GDP growth ahead. This concurs with a recent analysis of the US ISM non-manufacturing and ISM manufacturing surveys posted on the Investment Postcards site about ten days ago.
Source: Clusterstock - Chart of the Day, March 11, 2010.
Tags: Advertisement, Ahead, Cars, Consumption, Durable Goods, GDP, GDP Growth, Growth Chart, Growth Index, Houses, Ism Manufacturing, Leads, March 11, Metrics, Postcards, Relationship, Surveys, Time Series, Vacations
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Goldman Sachs’ VIP List: Most Important Stocks For Hedge Funds
Thursday, March 11th, 2010
This article is a guest contribution from MarketFolly.com, an excellent blog which tracks the activities of the hedge fund industry’s finest.
Given our focus on following hedge fund movements, we thought it would be prudent to post up Goldman Sachs’ VIP list. The ‘VIP’ stands for ‘Very Important Positions‘ for hedge funds that employ fundamental strategies rather than technical or trading. In essence, these are the 50 stocks that most frequently appear among the top ten holdings of hedge funds. In our hedge fund portfolio tracking series you may have noticed various stocks popping up over and over again in their top 10 holdings. This is simply an aggregation of a larger set of data and stems from our previous coverage of the top ten hedgie holdings.
This basket of stocks returned 40% in 2009 versus 27% for the S&P 500. Goldman also notes that this list has, “outperformed the S&P 500 by 81 bp on a quarterly basis since 2001, with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.29.” Quarterly turnover on this list is typically around 15 positions out of the 50. Those of you with Bloomberg Terminal access can look it up via GSTHHVIP.
Goldman has aggregated data from 487 funds based on the recent slew of 13F filings so these were the most popular stocks owned as of December 31st, 2009. Again, they focus on fundamentally focused hedge funds but have taken a much broader view of hedge fund land than we typically have. We instead focus on a select list of funds to track that are ideal due to their strategy and portfolio concentration. What’s most interesting about the data Goldman has assembled is that many of the positions have actually been down year-to-date for 2010. We found that intriguing given that these are essentially ‘groupthink’ or consensus picks.
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Below you will find Goldman Sachs’ VIP List with the name of the stock followed by the number of hedge funds that own that stock in their top ten holdings.
- Apple (AAPL): 67 hedge funds hold it as a top ten holding
- Pfizer (PFE): 45
- Bank of America (BAC): 37
- Google (GOOG): 37
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 36
- Microsoft (MSFT): 36
- Mastercard (MA): 29
- DirecTV (DTV): 27
- Wells Fargo (WFC): 27
- CVS Caremark (CVS): 24
- Citigroup (C): 23
- Hewlett Packard (HPQ): 23
- Monsanto (MON): 23
- Visa (V): 23
- Cisco Systems (CSCO): 21
- Walmart (WMT): 21
- Oracle (ORCL): 18
- Qualcomm (QCOM): 18
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): 18
- Ebay (EBAY): 17
- Wellpoint (WLP): 17
- Intel (INTC): 16
- Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN): 16
- Merck (MRK): 16
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 15
- Liberty Media (LSTZA): 15
- Amazon (AMZN): 14
- Apache (APA): 14
- EMC (EMC): 14
- Express Scripts (ESRX): 14
- Ford Motor (F): 14
- IBM (IBM): 14
- Lear (LEA): 14
- Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA): 14
- Yahoo (YHOO): 14
- Crown Castle (CCI): 13
- McDonald’s (MCD): 13
- Transocean (RIG): 13
- Barrick Gold (ABX): 12
- SBA Communications (SBAC): 12
- US Bancorp (USB): 12
- Anadarko Petroleum (APC): 11
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): 11
- Philip Morris International (PM): 11
- Transdigm Group (TDG): 11
- Target (TGT): 11
- Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): 11
- American Tower (AMT): 10
- Comcast (CMCSA): 10
- Freeport McMoran (FCX): 10
Of the stocks mentioned, there are a handful that are brand new additions to Goldman’s VIP list. This means that enough hedge funds have brought their stakes in the company up to a top 10 position in their respective portfolios. Positions that hedgies added largely to in the fourth quarter include: Wells Fargo (WFC), Mead Johnson (MJN), Merck (MRK), Liberty Media (LSTZA), Amazon (AMZN), Apache (APA), IBM (IBM), Lear (LEA), Crown Castle (CCI), SBA Communications (SBAC), US Bancorp (USB), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Target (TGT), American Tower (AMT), and Freeport McMoran (FCX).
Readers will take note that all three major tower stocks are included as we’ve been harping on this for some time now. We’ve highlighted how hedgies had increased exposure to AMT, CCI, and SBAC as demand for wireless data service continues to grow. Overall, an insightful list and now you can easily follow the smart money with these consensus plays. For more research from Goldman Sachs, head to our other post which covers an extensive look at the top hedge fund holdings. And don’t forget that you can also get specific hedgie portfolio updates by heading to our tracking series where we specifically focus on bottom-up stockpickers.
Source: Marketfolly.com, March 5, 2010
Tags: 13f Filings, Advertisement, Aggregation, Amp, Apple, Bp, Concentration, Consensus, Consensus Picks, Fund Portfolio, Goldman Sachs, Hedge Fund, Hedge Funds, Hedgie, Quarterly Basis, Sharpe Ratio, Slew, Stems, Stock, Stocks, Turnover, Vip
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Roach: US jobless rate actually stands at 11.5%
Tuesday, March 9th, 2010
The true unemployment rate in the United States is actually higher than we think - at 11.5%, said Stephen Roach, Asia chairman of Morgan Stanley.
“The (official) unemployment rate at 9.7% is distorted downwards by at least 3 million people who have simply given up looking for work and who have effectively taken themselves out of the work force for economic reasons,” Roach said on CNBC.
“For some bizarre reason, the US statisticians do not count these poor souls as unemployed. If you add them back in, the unemployment rate isn’t 9.7%. It’s 11.5%,” he said.
Source: CNBC, March 8, 2010.
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Tags: Advertisement, Asia, Bizarre Reason, Cnbc, Economic Reasons, Jobless Rate, Morgan Stanley, Statisticians, Stephen Roach, Unemployment Rate In The United States
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Technical Talk: View pullback as buying opportunity
Tuesday, March 9th, 2010
The comments below were provided by Kevin Lane of Fusion IQ.
We said several weeks back that it was hard to see the market top when bullish sentiment surveys were so neutral. Additionally we stated that tops were usually met with exuberant buyers not traders salivating to put on shorts. So here we are several weeks later and two indices - the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000 - are both at new post-market low highs. When the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both making highs it again is hard not to maintain a bullish bias.
[Graphs inserted by PduP.]
Source: StockCharts.com
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Source: StockCharts.com
Given that the market has rallied nearly 10% in the last few weeks, expect a shallow to moderate pullback to occur; however, we believe this pullback will present a buying opportunity.
The economic calendar will remain volatile as investors overinterpret every release; however, by and large we believe the economic recovery will continue on its course and this will cause the last reluctant sideline monies to finally join the party. Only when all liquidity is exhausted and all the buyers are in will this move likely end. Our guess is this will occur somewhere in the range of S&P 500 1,200 to 1,300.
So for now weakness appears to be an opportunity to buy stocks, especially in the areas that are working, i.e. technology and small caps.
Source: Kevin Lane, Fusion IQ, March 8, 2010.
Tags: Advertisement, Amp, Bias, Bullish Sentiment, Buy Stocks, Economic Calendar, Economic Recovery, Fusion, Graphs, Guess, Investors, Iq, liquidity, Market Sentiment, Monies, Nasdaq Composite, Pullback, Russell 2000, Shallow, Sideline, Small Caps, Tops
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The Handsome Men’s Club
Monday, March 8th, 2010
Okay, this is hilarious!
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Goldman Sucks
Monday, March 8th, 2010
This video is a visualization of Matt Taibbi’s article “Inside the great American bubble machine” on how Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression. Click here for Taibbi’s article.
Source: Lebed.biz (via YouTube), March 3, 2010.
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Tags: Advertisement, Article Source, Biz, Bubble Machine, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Market Manipulation, Matt Taibbi, Visualization, Youtube
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Face-to-Face with Joseph Stiglitz
Friday, March 5th, 2010
Charlie Rose sits down with Joseph Stiglitz, professor at Columbia University, Nobel Laureate in economics and author of Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy
, to discuss economic matters.
Click here or on the image below to view the video.
Source: Charlie Rose, March 2, 2010.
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Tags: Advertisement, Charlie Rose, Columbia University, Economic Matters, Face To Face, Free Markets, Freefall, Image View, Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Laureate In Economics, Video Source, World Economy
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Buffett buffet
Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010
In the video clips below, legendary investor Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, talks to CNBC about a variety of topical issues.
On the economy and politics
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
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On currencies and market lessons
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
On deal making and financial regulation
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
On Obama and politics
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
Buffett on health care reform
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
Buffett on succession planning and investment strategy
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
Buffett on banks and earthquake insurance
Source: CNBC, March 1, 2010.
Tags: Advertisement, Banks, Berkshire Hathaway, Ceo, Cnbc, Currencies, Earthquake Insurance, Economy, Health Care Reform, Insurance, Insurance Source, Investment Strategy, Investor, March 1, Market Lessons, Obama, Politics, Succession Planning, Topical Issues, Video Clips, Warren Buffett
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