Performing Under Pressure

by Carl Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Northern Trust

This month’s forecast follows a wave of generally positive economic data that appeared to shake off the weather-related disruptions seen throughout the summer and early fall.

The next set of clouds on the horizon relates to tax reform. The outline currently being considered by Congress would have a wide range of effects across a variety of taxpayer profiles. Such a broad proposal should not be executed in a hurry, and we do not expect a major overhaul to be passed this year. Although a less ambitious set of changes may follow, legislators may be shy to pass reforms in a midterm election year. For now, we have not factored any fiscal stimulus into our projections.

Key Economic Indicators

Influences on the Forecast

Strong employment, modest interest rates and stable inflation are bolstering consumer confidence and business investment. With the holiday season in sight, we expect to celebrate a well-functioning economy.

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