Tech Talk for Monday August 21st 2017

Tech Talk for Monday August 21st 2017




by Don Vialoux, Timingthemarket.ca

Jon Vialoux on BNN’s Market Call Tonight

Following are links:

http://www.bnn.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-market-outlook~1190776 Market Outlook

http://www.bnn.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-past-picks~1190804 Past Picks

http://www.bnn.ca/video/jon-vialoux-s-top-picks~1190816 Top Picks

Another Milestone

Number of StockTwits followers @EquityClock now exceeds 41,000. Previous milestone at 40,000 followers was reached in late July.

WALL STREET WEEK RADIO WITH HOST, MARK LEIBOVIT – AUGUST 19, 2017

https://tinyurl.com/yatrnnhe

GUESTS INCLUDE:

KYLE DENNIS, JEFF BISHOP, SINCLAIR NOE, ARCH CRAWFORD,  HENRY WEINGARTEN, HARRY BOXER, JEFFREY FRIEDLAND. DON VIALOUX IS OFF THIS WEEK.

The Bottom Line

Seasonal influences have a history of turning negative with increased volatility until mid-October for a wide variety of equity indices and sectors. The exception is the precious metal sector which continues to gain strength. Volatility remained elevated last week and equity markets around the world moved lower. Holding a robust positon in cash continues to make sense.

Economic News This Week

June Canadian. Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in May. Excluding auto sales, June Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.1% in May.

July New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to remain unchanged from June at 610,000.

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 236,000 from 232,000 last week.

July Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 5.57 million units from 5.52 million units in June.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts on Thursday and continues to Saturday.

Janet Yellen speaks at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday at Jackson Hole.

Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was bearish again last week. Notable among stocks breaking resistance were Consumer Staple stocks. Notable among stocks breaking support were Consumer Discretionary, Industrial and Financial stocks. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 26 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 42 . Number of stocks trading in an uptrend dropped to 234 from 248, number of stocks trading in a neutral trend increased to 70 from 66 and number of stocks in a downtrend increased to 196 from 186. The Up/Down ratio dropped last week to (234/196=) 1.19 from 1.33

Medium term technical indicators (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) mostly are neutral/overbought and trending down.

Short term technical indicators (short term momentum, above/below 20 day moving average) continued to move down last week for most equity markets, commodities and sectors (exception: precious metals and precious metal stocks)

Seasonality on a wide variety of equity indices, commodities and sectors turned negative at the end of July.

Key economic sensitive sectors completed double top patterns last week including S&P Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financial sectors and related ETFs

Weakest months for equity markets are August and September. Current technical indicators for North American equity indices suggest that history has started to repeat.

The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average have a history of moving significantly lower from August to October in years ending in 7.

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‘Tis the season for higher volatility until mid-October! The VIX Index remained at an elevated level last week, led by increasing political turmoil in the U.S.

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Earnings News This Week

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 18th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Calculating Technical Scores

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          Higher highs and higher lows

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          Not up or down

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          Lower highs and lower lows

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

The S&P 500 Index dropped another 15.77 points (0.65%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the S&P 500 Momentum Barometer) dropped last week to 41.60 from 43.69. Percent is slightly oversold, but continues to trend down

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average plunged last week to 63.80 from 68.54. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks dropped last week to 64.00 from 66.80 and remained below its 20 day moving average. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks was unchanged last week at 57.66 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The TSX Composite Index dropped 81.05 points (0.54%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down (Score: -2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral(Score: 0). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: -1. Short term momentum indicators are trending down (Score: -1). Technical score remained last week at -4.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the TSX Momentum Barometer) slipped last week to 40.00 from 40.42. Percent remains slightly oversold and trending down.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dropped last week to 44.17 from 46.83. Percent remains neutral and trending down.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 183.81 points (0.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average dropped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 2 from 4.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks was unchanged last week at 80.00 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks dropped last week to 54.96 from 56.68 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 40.03 points (0.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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The Russell 2000 Index plunged 16.44 points (1.20%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from neutral on Friday on a move below 1,351.01. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from -4.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 3.74 points (1.13%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up on Friday on a move below 9,111.45. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. The Average remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -4 from -2.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 56.10 points (0.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained positive. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 2 from -2

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The Nikkei Average dropped 259.33 points (1.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index improved to neutral from negative. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score improved last week to -4 from -6.

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Europe iShares slipped $0.02 (0.05%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at 0.

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The Shanghai Composite Index added 60.18 points (1.88%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Emerging Markets iShares added 0.75 (1.75%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive. Units remained below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 0.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.40(0.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Euro dropped 0.63 (0.53%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Euro dropped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Canadian Dollar added US 0.66 cents (0.84%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck moved back above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Japanese Yen slipped 0.08 (0.09%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down on Friday on a move above 91.88. The Yen remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The British Pound dropped 1.32 (1.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. ThePound remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 18th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

The CRB Index dropped 2.11 points (1.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. The Index moved below its 20 day moving average Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score changed last week to 2 from 4

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Gasoline added 0.9 cents per gallon last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Gas moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 0 from 2.

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Crude Oil slipped $0.16 per barrel (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Crude moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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Natural Gas dropped $0.09 per MBtu (3.02%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. “Natty” remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 2

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S&P Energy Index dropped 12.46 points (2.65%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from neutral on a move below 466.94. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -6

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index dropped 3.66 points (2.97%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -6.

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Gold slipped $2.40 per ounce (0.19%) last week. Intermediate trend changed last week to up from neutral on a move above $1,298.80. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Gold remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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Silver dropped $0.07 per ounce (0.41%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Silver remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 2.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index slipped 1.43 points (0.72%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on Friday on a move above 199. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Platinum dropped $7.30 per ounce (0.74%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains positive. Trades above its 20 day MA. Momentum: trending up. Score: 6

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Palladium gained $32.40 per ounce (3.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. PALL trades above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Score remained last week at 6

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Copper added $0.03 per lb (1.03%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Copper remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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BMO Base Metals ETF gained $0.26 (2.46%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained neutral. Units moved above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 0.

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Lumber added 0.90 (0.25%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains negative. Remains below its 20 day MA. Momentum turned up. Score increased to 0 from 2

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Grain ETN dropped $0.81 (3.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Score last week remained at -6

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The Agriculture ETF dropped $0.45 (0.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from positive. Units remained below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 0 from 2.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 year Treasuries increased 5 basis points (0.23%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Yield remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Price of the long term Treasury ETF added $0.19 (0.15%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remained above their 20 day moving average.

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Volatility

The VIX Index slipped 1.25 (8.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 18th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Copyright © DV Tech Talk, Timingthemarket.ca