Vialoux's Technical Talk – October 15, 2014

by Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com

Interesting Charts

Grain prices continue to recover from deeply oversold levels.

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Greece equities are moving in the opposite direction. Tough financial negotiations with the Troika!

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Copper finally is showing technical signs of bottoming.

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StockTwits Yesterday @equityclock

Technicals on S&P stocks to 11:00 AM: Bearish. Stocks breaking resistance:$DE,$BCR, $EIX,$PNW. Stocks breaking support: $TSO,$WFC,$AET,$CI,$JNJ,$YHOO,$CF,$SRE

$DE is responding to higher grain prices. Nice breakout! ‘Tis the season for strength!

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Negative response to $JNJ report! A break below support.

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Negative response to $WFC report! Break below support.

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Tech Talk/Horizons Weekly Seasonal/Technical Sector Report

Following is a link:

http://www.horizonsetfs.com/campaigns/TechnicalReport/index.html

 

Technical Comments on Individual Equities

By the close yesterday, 15 S&P stocks had broken support and 4 had broken resistance.

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Following is an example:

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Monitored Technical/Seasonal Trade Ideas

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A security must have a Technical Score of 1.5 – 3.0 to be on this list.

Green: Increased Technical Score

Red: Reduced Technical Score

 

clip_image014 INVESTMENT COMMENTARY

 

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

 

If you would like to receive our latest and future bi-monthly newsletter with contributions this month from Mukul Pal, Ben Hunt and Robert “Hap” Sneddon or would like to know how we are positioning our client portfolios today please send an e-mail http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php

 

 

 

TOP ASSET 5 CLASSES, SECTORS AND COUNTRY HEAT MAPPING

 

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COMMENTS:

As we indicated recently in these pages, strength continues in Canadian and US fixed income and other defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples and healthcare. On the country level India and Thailand rank high on both the monthly and weekly tables, and of note, just out of the top 5 rankings is a rising China from both absolute and relative performance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHARTS of the WEEK

TSX Composite Index

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With commodities apparently first hit over the summer from a strong US dollar (commodities are priced in USD) and now from apparent reduced demand the TSX looks vulnerable to further downside to around 13,000 or 6-7% lower. At present our Toronto 10 stock portfolio is on 53% cash. The portfolio began raising cash in early July.

S&P 500 Index

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The US market looks to have support near at hand though a significant break down from current levels would bring in the mid-1600 level on the S&P or 12% lower. Many indicators on a monthly basis are just now beginning to turn down. At present our S&P 10 stock portfolio on 58% cash. The portfolio began raising cash in early July.

Rates

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Interest rates keep pushing lower against a backdrop of a significant majority of analysts and economists who see rates rising to “normal levels”. The recent break of 2.35 (red line) brings in the 2.00% level then a test of the lows of 1.50% in 2012. The dynamic between bonds and commodities is interesting in that they both maybe reflecting slower corporate growth and GDP.

 

US 20+ Yr Treasury Bonds

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According both US and CDN (see below) instruments continue to reflect a bullish trend by breaking to new highs.

 

 

 

Canada Government Bonds

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We continues to raise our stop levels on both US and CDN fixed income (trailing) to protect profits in our +30% allocation to the asset class.

 

TSX Capped Energy

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The energy sector has been socked pretty badly. CastleMoore sold all its pure energy plays in June and July upon confirmation of some technical breaks. The same goes for energy services. We have been more patient with energy infrastructure (not shown) until recently when it became clear the weakness in the energy space was not simply due to the strong US dollar or seasonality distortion but also demand.

If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link

http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.

CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients with minimum portfolios of $500,000 within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and investing experience. For more information on our methodology please contact us.

 

 

clip_image030 CastleMoore Inc.

 

Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell

www.castlemoore.com

This commentary is not to be considered as offering investment advice on any particular security or market. Please consult a professional or if you invest on your own do your homework and get a good plan, before risking any of your hard earned money. The information provided in CastleMoore Investment Commentary or News, a publication for clients and friends of CastleMoore Inc., is intended to provide a broad look at investing wisdom, and in particular, investment methodologies or techniques. We avoid recommending specific securities due to the inherent risk any one security poses to ones’ overall investment success. Our advice to our clients is based on their risk tolerance, investment objectives, previous market experience, net worth and current income. Please contact CastleMoore Inc. if you require further clarification on this disclaimer.

 

Disclaimer: Comments, charts and opinions offered in this report by www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed. Don and Jon Vialoux are Research Analysts with Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc.

Individual equities mentioned in StockTwits are not held personally or in HAC.

 

 

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC October 14th 2014

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Copyright © Don Vialoux, EquityClock.com

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