December 25th, 2009 by Prieur du Plessis, Investment Postcards from Cape Town

Tweet This | Email This Article

If Santa has not yet made his way to your investment portfolio, don’t despair. According to Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader’s Almanac), the “Santa Claus Rally” normally occurs during the last five trading days of a year and the ensuing first two trading sessions of the new year. During this seven-day period stocks historically tend to advance (by 1.5% on average since 1950), but when recording a loss, they frequently trade much lower in the new year. Well, yesterday marked the official beginning of the Santa Claus Rally period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index off to a 0.5% start.

Another old stock market saw tells us the first five trading days of January sets the course for January (known as the “First Five Days Early Warning System”), and if the month of January is higher, there is a good chance the year will end higher, i.e. the so-called “January Barometer”. Every down January since 1950 has been followed by a new or continuing bear market or a flat year. “As January goes, so goes the year,” said Hirsch.

Lastly, according to Hirsch, the “December Low Indicator“ says that should the Dow Jones Industrial Index close below its December low anytime during the first quarter, it is frequently an excellent warning sign of lower levels ahead. The number to watch is the low of 10,286 recorded by the Dow on December 8.

Time will tell whether the year-end/new-year indicators play out according to the historical pattern. Meanwhile, we’ll have some fun tracking how it pans out.

Dr. Prieur du Plessis is an investment professional with 26 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management. More than 1,200 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns, including his blog, Investment Postcards from Cape Town. He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment. Prieur is Chairman and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and a number of foreign countries. He also serves as Honorary Consul of Slovenia for South Africa, actively developing economic, cultural and scientific relations between Slovenia and South Africa. Prieur is 54 years old and live with his wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town, South Africa. His leisure activities include long-distance running, traveling, reading, motor-cycling and scripophily. Read more from the author/contributor here.

Comments

Leave a Reply

 Comment Form 

Name (required)

E-Mail (required)

Website

Your Comment

Security Code: