Recession is Over - But has the Recovery Begun?
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November 27th, 2009 by Prieur du Plessis, Investment Postcards from Cape Town
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On the topic of the magnitude of the economic recovery, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, provided the following interesting snippet:
“The recession in the US may be over, but what sort of recovery lies ahead remains in question. All we can say is that when looking at what is normal in the context of a post-recession rebound during the post-WWII era, the first quarter of growth is closer to 7.3% at an annual rate, not 2.8% as we just saw in the latest real GDP estimate - the median was 6.3%. To think that with the massive amount of stimulus - without it, growth would have flirted with 0% - this first quarter of positive growth was basically one-third of what is typical really says something.”
Food for thought indeed.
Source: David Rosenberg, Gluskin, Sheff & Associates - Breakfast with Dave, November 26, 2009.
Dr. Prieur du Plessis is an investment professional with 26 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management. More than 1,200 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns, including his blog, Investment Postcards from Cape Town. He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment. Prieur is Chairman and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and a number of foreign countries. He also serves as Honorary Consul of Slovenia for South Africa, actively developing economic, cultural and scientific relations between Slovenia and South Africa. Prieur is 54 years old and live with his wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town, South Africa. His leisure activities include long-distance running, traveling, reading, motor-cycling and scripophily. Read more from the author/contributor here.
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