John Ryding on the US economy, inflation and unemployment
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November 16th, 2009 by Prieur du Plessis, Investment Postcards from Cape Town
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John Riding, chief economist of RDQ Economics in New York, sits down with Michael Mackenzie, US markets correspondent of the Financial Times, to discuss Fed policy, inflation versus deflation and the US employment outlook.
Part 1: On Fed policy
Riding says the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until 2011 at the earliest. He says an extended period of easy monetary policy is laying the ground for the next bubble and that the Fed itself is engaged in the biggest carry trade out there through its policy of quantitative easing.
Click here or on the image below to view Part 1 of the interview.
Part 2: On the inflation versus deflation debate
Riding says the debate between inflation and disinflation or potentially even deflation will be settled on the side of inflation, though it may take two or three years to come through.
Click here to view Part 2 of the interview.
Part 3: On the US employment outlook
Riding says should current labor trends continue, the US economy is about 20 weeks away from starting to see the emergence of job creation. The actual rate of unemployment is 17.5%, not the official rate of 10.2%.
Click here to view Part 3 of the interview.
Source: Michael Mackenzie, Financial Times (here, here and here), November 13, 2009.
Dr. Prieur du Plessis is an investment professional with 26 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management. More than 1,200 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns, including his blog, Investment Postcards from Cape Town. He has also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment. Prieur is Chairman and principal shareholder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, which he founded in 1995. The group conducts investment management, investment consulting, private equity and real estate activities in South Africa and a number of foreign countries. He also serves as Honorary Consul of Slovenia for South Africa, actively developing economic, cultural and scientific relations between Slovenia and South Africa. Prieur is 54 years old and live with his wife, television producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Cape Town, South Africa. His leisure activities include long-distance running, traveling, reading, motor-cycling and scripophily. Read more from the author/contributor here.
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