Archive for June 22nd, 2009
You Matter…
Monday, June 22nd, 2009
- When you love the work you do and the people you do it with, you matter.
- When you are so gracious and generous and aware that you think of other people before yourself, you matter.
- When you leave the world a better place than you found it, you matter.
- When you continue to raise the bar on what you do and how you do it, you matter.
- When you teach and forgive and teach more before you rush to judge and demean, you matter.
- When you touch the people in your life through your actions (and your words), you matter.
- When kids grow up wanting to be you, you matter.
- When you see the world as it is, but insist on making it more like it could be, you matter.
- When you inspire a Nobel prize winner or a slum dweller, you matter.
- When the room brightens when you walk in, you matter.
- And when the legacy you leave behind lasts for hours, days or a lifetime, you matter.
Special thanks to Seth Godin, for sharing this post.
Tags: Legacy, Lifetime, Love, Nobel Prize Winner, People, Rush, Seth Godin, Slum, Special Thanks
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“Loonie a Thoughtful Choice” (WSJ.com)
Monday, June 22nd, 2009
The Wall Street Journal suggests that Americans should think about investing in Canadian assets to take advantage of the recent interim weakness in the Loonie, as Canada’s economic outlook hinges on China and emerging markets’ demand for oil and commodities.
WSJ: While the loonie might bounce around in the next few weeks, the expected long-term trend is for Canadian vigor. Economists at TD Bank Financial Group forecast the U.S. and Canadian dollars will reach parity by year’s end, thanks to general U.S. dollar weakness and Canada’s stronger fiscal position. Canada, the world’s 10th-largest economy, has avoided bank bailouts and central-bank interventions.
The retail sales figures aren’t expected to reflect the recent rise in commodity prices that will likely buoy Canadian spending in the second half of the year. The U.S.’s neighbor to the north has long been tightly linked to the U.S., its biggest trading partner.
But the rise of the commodity demand from Asia is giving Canadians something else to watch.
Benjamin Tal, economist at CIBC World Markets, likens Canada’s exposure to the U.S.’s woes as like a secondhand smoker. Bad but not a direct hit.
And with China scooping up oil and metals that Canada produces, China is taking a bigger role in Canada’s fortunes.
Source: WSJ.com, June 19, 2009
Tags: Bank Financial Group, Canada, Canadian Assets, Canadian Dollars, CIBC World Markets, Commodities, Commodity Prices, Direct Hit, Dollar Weakness, Economic Outlook, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Position, Fortunes, Hinges, oil, Parity, Retail Sales Figures, Td Bank Financial Group, Term Trend, Vigor, Wall Street Journal, Woes, Wsj
Posted in Emerging Markets, Markets | No Comments »
Global retail sales – looks bad, consumption very weak
Monday, June 22nd, 2009
This post is a guest contribution by Rebecca Wilder*, author of the of the News N Economics blog.
Consumption spending is the “wild card” for the economic outlook in many developed economies (and developing, too, i.e., China). Massive wealth loss has increased saving around the world; and in countries like the US, I still see a very big question mark as to how discrete will be the shift in saving behavior. Or better yet, how far will the deleveraging process go? Will saving remain at its current 5.7% of disposable income? Go to 7%? Or 10%?
The answer is that nobody really knows. Nevertheless, the effects of increased saving and/or reduced consumption on economic growth to date have been devastating. In the US, consumption took -2.75% and -2.99% from overall growth in Q3 and Q4 2008, respectively (see the BEA’s contributions to GDP growth table).
The drag coming from consumption is global. Below are several regional illustrations of the average annual retail sales growth rate (per month) for 2008 and 2009 to date. Out of the 27 countries listed below, 18 posted a positive average annual growth rate in 2008, while just 5 saw the same in 2009 ytd. Note: I do not have access to “good” data for Latin America. I urge you to visit Vitoria Saddi’s blog, Latin America and Brazil - On Economics and Politics; she recently wrote a nice piece summing up the expansionary monetary policy across Latin America.
Note: For each graph below, the month listed in parenthesis next to the country name indicates the latest data point for retail sales. 2008 is the average annual growth rate spanning the months January to December. 2009 is the average annual growth rate January to date.
Retail Sales in Asia: Australia and China holding on
Retail Sales in Western Europe: Ireland and Greece give the rest of Europe some perspective
Retail Sales in Emerging Europe: Latvia suffers, and Poland just barely holding on. The RGE Monitor had a nice article about Latvia and Emerging Europe not too long ago.
Retail Sales in the US and Canada: US consumers dropped off the map; both countries are showing signs of stabilization (the “not falling as quickly” story).
Looks bad - no wonder the consumer outlook is key to many economic futures.
Source: Rebecca Wilder, News N Economics, June 21, 2009.
* Rebecca Wilder is an economist in the financial industry. She was previously an assistant professor and holds a doctorate in economics.
Tags: Asia Australia, Bea, Canada, Consumption, Disposable Income, Economic Growth, Economic Outlook, Emerging Europe, Expansionary Monetary Policy, GDP, GDP Growth, January To December, Latin America, Massive Wealth, Q3, Q4, Question Mark, Retail Sales Growth, RGE Monitor, Western Europe, Wild Card
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