The Secret European Financial Crisis

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Anatole Kaletsky, Editor-at-Large for The Times (London), writes this week on the subject on Europe’s looming financial crisis and the potential breakup of the Euro. Here is an excerpt from The great bailout - Europe’s best-kept secret, June 4, 2009.

Europe is now in the middle of a perfect storm - a confluence of three separate, but interconnected economic crises which threaten far greater devastation than Britain or America have suffered from the credit crunch: the collapse of German industry and employment, the impending bankruptcy of Central European homeowners and businesses; and the threat of government debt defaults from loss of monetary control by the Irish Republic, Greece and Portugal, for instance on the eurozone periphery.

Latvia, partly because it has followed an Argentine-style policy of “fixing” its exchange rate and encouraging its citizens to borrow in euros and Swiss francs, is now in the front line of the battle between governments and financial markets - and a humiliating devaluation looks increasingly likely. Last weekend a former Swedish finance ministry official brought in by the Government as an adviser admitted that devaluation was no longer a matter of “if” but of “when and how”. If Latvia does devalue, then the two other Baltic states will almost certainly be forced to follow and the panic will probably move to Romania and Hungary. Beyond that, the contagion is likely to spread to the weakest members of the eurozone - Ireland, Greece, Portugal and probably Austria.

If the crisis expands, other EU governments - and especially Germany’s - will face an existential question. Do they commit hundreds of billions of euros to guarantee the debts of fellow EU countries? Or do they allow government defaults and devaluations that may ultimately break up the single currency and further cripple German industry, as well as the country’s domestic banks?

This has negative ramifications for European economics as well as markets, both credit and equity. In the short term it is supportive of higher gold prices, due to the fear factor.

It was interesting to read David Rosenberg’s (Gluskin Sheff) comment today regarding gold. I couldn’t help but wonder - now that gold is nearing the $1,000 mark again and talk of inflation is high fashion - are we due for another round of intervention. This can mean that, yes, gold is going higher, but then we are likely to see it followed by a round of short gold sales.

Buy gold (again, in a secular bull phase, but the dollar is not going to zero and being bearish on the greenback has become far  too fashionable — especially in the wake of Bill Gross’s latest missive; the Euro is saddled with problems at least as deep as the USD, if not deeper)

At first I thought the weakness of the dollar could be a catalyst for a round of shorting gold. Central banks can’t really afford to allow the US dollar to weaken too much, however, the continuance of the de-leveraging cycle and cash supply concerns would provide support for the dollar. Rosenberg discusses the idea that the US is likely to be in a de-leveraging cycle over a long period.

As for the dramatic monetary stimulus, this is only inflationary once velocity begins to rise. But cash requirements in a prolonged de-leveraging cycle are likely to remain intense and the ‘dry powder’ is very likely going to be diverted towards an intense private sector debt rollover calendar for years to come. An examination of the Japanese experience suggests this process could well take years. (Keep in mind that Japan had a consumption bubble emerge alongside its real estate bubble back in the early 1990s.)

The recent weakening dollar has been an anomaly in the course of the deleveraging cycle, that has come as a result of some money coming out of the treasury bond market and is being allocated to equities as a result of the powerful rally and momentum that has pushed the equity market prices up sharply since the March 6 bottom this year.

Therefore the European crisis that Kaletsky describes may be more likely to be the type of event that precipitates higher gold prices and whose price is then impacted by central bank intervention. We might not even hear about if Kaletsky is right, but, we may see it in the price of gold correcting from highs as it did 3 months ago.

Source:

The Times, Anatole Kaletsky, The great bailout - Europe’s best-kept secret, June 4, 2009.
David Rosenberg, Breakfast with Dave (morning notes), June 4, 2009, GluskinSheff.com
Bill Gross, PIMCO, Investment Outlook, June 2009 - Staying Rich in a “New Normal”

Tags: Anatole Kaletsky, Bailout, Baltic States, Contagion, Credit Crunch, David Rosenberg, Devaluation, Domestic Banks, Economic Crises, Existential Question, Finance Ministry Official, German Industry, Government Debt, Impending Bankruptcy, Irish Republic, Monetary Control, Negative Ramifications, Perfect Storm, Single Currency, Style Policy, Times London
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Asian markets won’t retest lows, says Chris Wood

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Chris Wood, street smart Global Equity Strategist of CLSA, yesterday said in an interview on CNBC-TC18 that the US markets remained in a bear market rally while Asia and India were in a secular bull market.

He said the Indian and Asian rally was started by local money, which according to him was a big long-term positive. He added that Asia and emerging markets (EMs) would be the biggest beneficiary of the Fed’s monetary easing. He also said liquidity could lead to massive asset bubbles in Asia and EMs.

Click the image below to view the interview. The video clip is followed by a verbatim transcript.

Q: What have you made of the markets’ move in the past few weeks?

A: I was expecting what I call a counter-trend rally, driven by a counter-trend rally in the S&P this year. The key point is that the S&P in the fourth quarter last calendar year went further below its 200 DMA, and at any point since 1932, in the midst of the Great Depression. So, it was almost inevitable that we were going to have a counter trend rally at some point in 2009. Actually, I thought it would start with the arrival of the new administration in January-February, but it didn’t start so much.

My guess as to how far this rally can go is 1000-1050 on the S&P, but I am viewing this as a counter-trend rally in a secular bear market for the US. I have a different view for Asia and India. I believe Asia and India remain in a secular bull market. So I have a fundamentally different view for the Western world and Asia.

Q: How would you describe what happened in 2008 then in India and other Asian markets like China? Deep cyclical correction? Over 10-15 months in an overall secular bull market?

A: I would describe that as a deep cyclical correction in Asia and EM driven by massive collective damage from what was going on in the Western financial system. That is why with my Absolute Return Portfolio I have been recommending to investors from the middle of 2007 only to own my recommended portfolio, by hedging the Western financial risk by being short on Western financial stocks. But in my view, the sell-off in Asian stocks last year was exacerbated by dramatic liquidation by foreign money, particularly by hedge funds and so-called funds of funds.

What is positive in the rally that began in Asia in October-November last year is that we’ve seen growing local investor participation in Asian market, so the people who bought earlier in this rally since late last year weren’t foreign fund managers but local investors throughout the region. That growing local investor participation is a long-term positive.

Q: So are you saying that the secular bull market has commenced again in India and other Asian markets?

A: Yes, I think it has recommenced. Two technical pieces of evidence support that view. First, Asian markets and EMs have been leading this rally ever since they bottomed last October-November. Second, when the S&P made a new low in March, the Asian markets and EMs did not make a new low. That is technical evidence to me that Asian markets and EMs have become the asset class of choice in global equities.

In the very short term, because Asian markets and EMs have outperformed dramatically, there is some scope for the S&P to outperform. However, in the long run, in my view, the asset class of choice in which to remain fundamentally overweight is Asia and EMs.

In my view, the biggest beneficiary of the dramatic monetary easing, quantitative easing undertaken by the Western central banks led by the Fed, won’t be American/British consumers or American/British stock markets. The biggest beneficiaries will be Asia and EMs. In fact, the dramatic monetary easing could lead to massive asset bubbles in due course in Asia and EMs because the excess liquidity will flow to the best growth story and the best growth stories in the world are Asia and EMs. They have the best demographic dynamics and have the healthiest economies because, unlike the Western world, they do not have the structural leverage problems.

Q: Often, the measure of the restart of a bull market after a bear market is when the previous highs get taken out. How long is it before you think India and other Asian markets can take out their old bull market highs?

A: I don’t assume that happens quickly, because I am bearish on the Western world. If I wasn’t bearish on the Western world, then I would say very quickly, but I am. So in my view we are in a process here, we have commenced a process of incremental decoupling from Western markets. At the beginning of 2008 many investors in China and Indian equities believed in decoupling but by the end of 2008, after a dramatic collapse in Asian stock markets after the Lehman bankruptcy, investors stopped believing in decoupling and started believing in the absolute opposite.

The absolute opposite was an export-correlated train wreck with the US consumer. People became extremely negative on the most important EM story, which was not India but China. This year the Indian and Chinese economies have shown growth momentum; those very bearish concerns were misplaced. So we now have some empirical evidence that Chinese and Indian economies are able to decouple to a certain extent from the American economy, from the American consumer.

The American economy is not growing, so that is building confidence in asset classes. We have begun the process of incremental decoupling. But I think unfortunately when the S&P turns down again, when people realise that it is an L-shaped situation in the US, not an U-shaped or V-shaped recovery, you will get renewed correction. But my view is that next time the Western stock markets go down the Asian markets will prove much more resilient. But this process is incremental; it is not going to happen on a 12-month view.

Q: How bearish are you on the US markets?

A: I would expect a retest of the 660 level in due course in the US if the equities correct and it coincides with the new dollar rally because the dollar rally is on deleveraging. But if the dollar keeps declining, the lows on the S&P need not be so large because some of the downside will be taken on the dollar.

Q: Even if the S&P were to go for a retest you think none of the EMs, including India, will go for a test of their 2008 lows?

A: I don’t believe in a world where the S&P revisits the lows of March. I don’t think the Asian equity markets, India, will revisit the lows because the Indian economy has demonstrated its domestic demand-driven resilience this year. We are now getting people talking of 5.5-6% growth - a few months back the RBI had come out with statements that growth was going to be much slower than expected and it said that growth was going to be 6%.

Reality is that at the beginning of this year investors thought 6% was not attainable, but the data that have been coming out have been a positive surprise. The Indian economy is keeping its growth - not by artificial stimulus measures by the government - so basically the data have been a positive surprise this year and the government has been another positive surprise, which has been a clear mandate that should allow a more coherent policy that should allow for a renewed vigour in the infrastructure cycle now.

Q: How positive is the election?

A: I don’t want to over-dramatize it because of the Indian government’s history of disappointing on reform expectations. But I what I do think is positive is that most foreign investors were on the sidelines before the election as they knew the situation is inherently unpredictable. So because of the clarity and because you don’t have a weak coalition government, I think that was a major catalyst for foreigners to reinvest in India, and logically the sector that should benefit is the infrastructure sector. The other point is that it has removed the risk that the fiscal deficit in India could get out of control.

Q: What are you overweight on in India and China?

A: I am overweight both on India and China but in the last quarter more India, because I was more overweight China in the first quarter. But in my long only portfolio, I am 33% in India and my biggest weight is in Indian banking though I did add an infrastructure name after the election.

Q: Public sector units or private sector?

A: Both, but if I were making a new allocation it would be to a private sector bank.

Q: This trait to tanking up to defensives, you think that trend is over?

A: Tactically, Asian markets have had a big rally and people were fortunate to be in the high-beta names and they should be thinking of moving to less-high-beta names now, 70-80 on the oil price, you should reduce the beta names. But I would reduce in the commodity-driven stocks, not banks.

Q: Do you find any discomfort with regard to valuations in India?

A: PEs look scary in India, especially infra, but India is a genuine domestic demand-driven growth story. So it deserves a high PE premium. On a price to book basis India looks undemanding. The whole risk in Asian valuations is in the potential negative correlation to the Western world.

Source: CNBC-TC18, June 3, 2009 (Hat tip: Viktor Capitalist).

Tags: 15 Months, Absolute Return, Asian Markets, Beneficiary, Bubbles, Cnbc, Dma, Emerging Markets, Ems, Global Equity, Great Depression, India, Key Point, liquidity, Lows, Market Rally, New Administration, Retest, Secular Bear Market, Secular Bull Market, Strategist
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Bill Gross: Staying rich in the “new normal”

Thursday, June 4th, 2009

Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “Staying Rich in the New Normal”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading. Click to listen to Bill Gross below:

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He concludes the newsletter as follows:

“The obvious solution to both dollar weakness and higher yields is to move quickly towards a more balanced budget once a sustained recovery is assured, but don’t count on the former or the latter. It is probable that trillion-dollar deficits are here to stay because any recovery is likely to reflect ‘new normal’ GDP growth rates of 1%-2% not 3%+ as we used to have.

“Staying rich in this future world will require strategies that reflect this altered vision of global economic growth and delevered financial markets. Bond investors should therefore confine maturities to the front end of yield curves where continuing low yields and downside price protection are more probable. Holders of dollars should diversify their own baskets before central banks and sovereign wealth funds ultimately do the same.

“All investors should expect considerably lower rates of return than what they grew accustomed to only a few years ago. Staying rich in the ‘new normal’ may … require investors to resemble … Will Rogers, who opined in the early 30s that he wasn’t as much concerned about the return on his money as the return of his money.”

Click here for the full article.

Source: Bill Gross, PIMCO - Investment Outlook, June 2009.

Tags: Article Source, Balanced Budget, Bill Gross, Bond Investors, Central Banks, Co Founder, Dollar Weakness, Downside, Financial Markets, Future World, Gdp Growth Rates, Global Economic Growth, Gross Co, Investment Outlook, Maturities, Money Men, PIMCO, Target, Will Rogers, Yield Curves
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