Art Hogan Calls the Bottom

Friday, October 10th, 2008

Earlier today, Art Hogan, Jefferies Managing Director, stuck his neck out, calling the market bottom.

Jefferies managing director Art Hogan went way out on a limb to call the market bottom today. “This market is indiscriminately selling and ignoring good news out of IBM, GE, and ignoring good news on the monetary policy front,” says Hogan. “all of that’s being ignored while we’re in liquidation mode.” As a result, Hogan believes the pendulum’s ready to swing the other way. “I think if you look at all the carnage we’ve done to the major indices, the bottom gets put in today.“

In the midst of today’s continued deep selloff, one notable factor that stood out was the trading volume.

Up till now the trading volumes pre-requisite of a capitulation among market participants has not been present. Today, so far, volume has been double the daily volume of other selloff days.

click on image for video

Tags: Capitulation, Market Participants, Monetary Policy, Trading, Video
Posted in Markets | 7 Comments »

Jim Rogers: Buying Commodities, Yen and Swiss Francs

Friday, October 10th, 2008

Jim Rogers appeared on CNBC this early this morning on Capital Connection on CNBC World Edition, and had the following to say, when he was asked what he’s doing with his money.

What are you doing with your money now?

“I have an enormous amount of cash and I’ve been using it to buy more Japanese Yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products. We’re in a liquidation phase, you know. I bought agriculture last week and their down this week. They’re liquidating everything.”

“I’ve covered some shorts today [too] this morning, that’s what I’m doing with my money now.”

At what levels would you look to buy equities again?

“I’m not sure I want to buy equities now. Equities are not going to come out on top. The way you make money in a market like this is you buy the things that have been unimpaired, and they will lead the market coming out.”

“Morgan Stanley is not coming out of this unimpaired. I’m buying commodities, Commodities are the only thing I know that are coming out of this thing unimpaired where supply and demand are still terribly out of balance, and Yen and Swiss Francs.”

Tags: Agriculture, Commodities, Japan, Jim Rogers, Video
Posted in Commodities, Markets | 1 Comment »

Hendry: Short Selling Ban a Fiasco

Friday, October 10th, 2008

Hugh Hendry, the eloquent, brash, and outspoken CIO at UK-based Eclectica Asset Management, comments on the today’s worsening selloff in markets, appearing this morning on CNBC European Squawk Box with Geoff Cutmore.

click on image for video

“It feels like the blackest morning,” Hugh Hendry, CIO & partner at Eclectica said Friday (today). “We’ve never really experienced a matter as grave as this.”

Conditions like these are unmatched, except with 1930-32. He “slakes” regulators for this, making the following points.

• The short selling ban has been a fiasco, as it has removed an entire constituency of buyers from the market, so that on weak days there is no profit incentive to buy the market.
• The tremedous slide of the last two weeks has made the market completely oversold, therefore nobody is willing short sell the market.
• The VIX index is very high, so one can’t (afford to) buy puts to protect their holdings
• Fundamentals have become an intellectual curiosity, and an outrageous luxury
• The only defense left to investors is to sell their assets, this is a liquidation
• People watch the market all day and are averaging their trades,
• and that’s why in the final hour of trading you see a cascading of orders, and the market runs out in panic trying to fulfill those orders.

So far in the month of October, Hendry’s hedge fund is up 40% on account of his levered positions in long-term government bonds.

Tags: Eclectica, Eclectica Asset Management, Euro, Government Bonds, Hedge Fund, Hugh Hendry, Markets, risk, Short Selling, Trading, UK, Video
Posted in Bonds, Markets | No Comments »