Posts Tagged ‘David Rosenberg’
Sunday, September 19th, 2010
“I’m a huge bull on this country … we won’t have a double dip recession. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.” .…Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway
“GE is now finding it profitable to build manufacturing and service centers in the United States rather than overseas, because it is more competitive to do so.” … Jeff Immelt, CEO, GE
“I am very enthusiastic about what the future holds” .… Steve Ballmer, CEO, Microsoft
One of the most important roles for advisors is to be an emotional anchor for clients … preventing the highs from being too high and the lows from being too low.
Today, many Canadians are pessimistic about the U.S. and global economies … driven in large measure by daunting headlines about slow growth, weak housing prices, high unemployment and deficit problems in much of the developed world, as well as political discord in Washington.
This pessimism is amplified by the media coverage given to voices of gloom such as Nouriel Roubini and David Rosenberg.
Presenting an upbeat outlook
That’s why a conference that took place just last Monday gives advisors the chance to provide clients with some offsetting perspective on the mid and long term positives for the United States.
Speaking on Monday September 13 to 2000 business and political leaders in Montana, Warren Buffett, Steve Ballmer of Microsoft and GE’s Jeff Immelt talked about good news at their companies and a positive outlook for the future.
Here are two articles on this conference that you can send clients, one from Bloomberg and other from Yahoo News:
And here are some of their comments:
Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway:
“I’m a huge bull on this country … we won’t have a double dip recession. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board … … it’s night and day from a year ago.”
“I’ve seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media. I don’t see that in our businesses … we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago.”
“The things that worked for the country through a century of two world wars, a depression and more — all while increasing the standard of living — will work again.”
“Banks are lending money again, businesses are hiring employees and I expect the economy to come back stronger than ever.”
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft:
“There soon will be more technological advancement and invention than there was during the Internet era and that will help drive business growth.”
“I am very enthusiastic about what the future holds for our industry and what our industry will mean for growth in other industries.”
“We will see new technologies that move beyond the Internet to tie together computers, phones, televisions and data centers to create amazing new products. And the pace of innovation will increase as technology makes workers more productive.”
“All areas of science today are moving forward more quickly. The speed of scientific breakthrough is accelerating.”
Jeff Immelt, GE:
“Angry political rhetoric is not helpful and headlines are too focused on finding negative indicators.”
“Business at GE is improving. Signs across the world show growth improving as evidenced by a rise in GE’s orders.”
“GE is now finding it profitable to build manufacturing and service centers in the United States rather than overseas, because it is more competitive to do so.”
“The U.S.‘s central challenge will be to speed growth. We need an increase in exports of manufactured goods to help compete globally. Expansion will be further bolstered when smaller businesses and consumers regain confidence in banks and are able to borrow more.”
“We need people to be able to feel like they’re going to get loans, the process is going to work and that they understand the rules.”
“The U.S. is going to need to adjust, though. The economy since the 1970s has been driven by consumer credit and a misguided notion in building a “lazy” service economy. Manufacturing, with an aim to reduce the trade deficit, is the key.”
“The push for an exclusively service-based economy was just wrong. It was stupid. It was insane .The future of the economy has to be as an exporter.”
Tags: Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett Rules, Ceo Microsoft, David Rosenberg, Discord, Double Dip Recession, Economy Leaders, Emotional Anchor, Global Economies, Jeff Immelt, Last Monday, Lows, News Yahoo, Nouriel Roubini, Pessimism, Political Leaders, Positive Outlook, Steve Ballmer, Upbeat Outlook, Warren Buffett
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Thursday, December 3rd, 2009
This weeks selection is a thematic group of articles which focus on the Canada/Emerging Markets theme.
The first three articles are focused on a discussion of strong Canadian fundamentals, and led by pro-Canada, pro-commodities arguments from David Rosenberg, Chief Markets Economist, Gluskin Sheff. The subsequent three articles provide strong indications of demand from emerging markets, particularly China, whose savings are unequalled anywhere in the world, where more cars are now sold than in the US, and an outlook from Merrill’s Francisco Blanch that oil could reach $100 in the next year.
This is where Canadian strength relative to the United States comes into play — nearly 45 per cent of the TSX composite index is in resources; almost triple the share in the United States. Almost 60 per cent of Canada’s exports are linked to the commodity sector, roughly double the U.S. exposure.
This explains how it is that the Canadian equity market has managed to outperform the S&P 500 this year by a cool 2,000 basis points (in this sense, Canada is basically a low-beta way to play the emerging markets via commodity exposure).
Moreover, considering that the Canadian dollar enjoys a 65-per-cent correlation with the CRB index, the added boost from the appreciation in the loonie means that an American investor putting money in Canada would have garnered a 28-per-cent gain on a currency-adjusted basis (versus a 4.0-per-cent gain from the S&P 500).
The Canadian stock market has been the star of the show over the past decade. With the help of a strong currency, the S&P/TSX composite index has beat the S&P 500 in eight of the past 10 years (in Canadian dollar terms), and nine out of 11 when 2009 is included. And there are persuasive arguments why this will continue.
A report by Scotia Capital entitled “Why you want to own Canada” nicely summarizes them. It points out that Canada’s main attributes are: 1) emerging-market exposure with lower volatility; 2) cheaper valuations relative to the MSCI World Index; 3) stronger domestic fundamentals; 4) Canadian dollar strength relative to the U.S. dollar and British pound; 5) proximity to the U.S. economy; and 6) above-average market capitalization companies in financials, materials, technology and industrials.
In a recent Globe column, David Rosenberg referred to Canada as a “low beta [less volatile] way to play the emerging markets via commodity exposure.” He went so far as to say, “this period when the Canadian market outperforms its southern peers is barely halfway done.”
If there is one thing that Canadians are never happy with (in addition to their local hockey team) it is the Canadian dollar. When it was flirting near that record low of 62 cents nearly a decade ago, everyone lamented the future of the loonie. It was too expensive to buy anything that was imported, it was too costly to make that annual trip to Florida, and tickets on Broadway were prohibitively expensive. We felt poorer. We must have been doing something wrong.
If Americans have been the world’s greatest consumers, the Chinese have been its greatest savers
It is testimony to the resilience and resourcefulness of the Chinese people that, so soon after these terrible times, their country is positioned to lay claim to the paramount role in a new world order of the 21st century. Only 15 years ago, China’s manufacturing output was only one-fifth that of the United States. Now, it is about two-thirds and rising; IMF data show a dramatic rise of annual per capita income to $3,180 (U.S.) in 2008 from only $350 in 1990, lifting more than one-third of a billion people into China’s standard of middle class.
CHINA’S car market has overtaken America’s in sales volume for the first time, several years earlier than analysts had predicted before the financial crisis. Plummeting demand in the West is to blame. Earlier this year, as the American government was buying 61% of General Motors and 8% of Chrysler to prevent them from collapsing, the two manufacturers’ sales in China were rocketing. GM’s sales in China in August more than doubled on a year earlier. For 2009 as a whole the company predicted a 40% rise. Sales of all car brands in China in August were up by about 90%, helped by a cut in the purchase tax on smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. There is also huge pent-up demand as a new middle class takes to the road.
October 26 2009 19:40 | Last updated: October 26 2009 19:40Crude oil prices could push above $100 a barrel heading into 2011 due to a combination of a cyclical improvement in demand, the rapid weakening in the US dollar and strong global liquidity growth, says Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Tags: Adjusted Basis, American Investor, Basis Points, Canadian Dollar, Canadian Equity, Canadian Stock Market, Commodities, Commodity Sector, Crb Index, David Rosenberg, Dollar Terms, Emerging Markets, Globe Investor, Gluskin Sheff, Investment Ideas, Investor Investment, Loonie, Star Of The Show, Thematic Group, Tsx Composite Index
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